TFT Issue 3409!

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Bankers

General Information

We aim to give you the best possible information before each game. However, the moment the game starts, anything can happen, ranging from red cards to snow storms to pitch invasions. We can only prepare you for so much; it's up to you to learn how to develop yourself as to know when to jump ship if things aren't going as they should.

Pay attention to the odds provided for each tip. Be aware that the longer the odds are, the less chance there is of it coming in. Don't lean toward backing the bankers containing teams you've heard of or selections at longer odds because you trust the team more or if you see the pound signs flashing before your eyes. Sometimes bankers won't win, try to use the previews to steer you toward the right selection to make rather than taking the quick/lazy way.

Please understand that every single tip has the capacity to win, push, or lose. We aim to find good value bets (probability vs odds) as our focal area.

Banker

Zenit St. Petersburg vs Rotor Volgograd 

KO: (UK time)

The quality gap is way too big here; even Azmoun’s absence shouldn’t matter. Zenit basically need two more wins to make the title all but theirs – and their easiest remaining games are hosting doomed Rotor Volgograd today, and travelling to face Tambov on the last day of the season. These aren’t hard matches to win, not when Rotor have nothing to offer. It’s got to be a comfortable home win today.

Verdict: Zenit St. Petersburg to win at 1/10.

Banker

Tambov vs Lokomotiv Moscow 

KO: (UK time)

I really have to hand it to Nikolic. I doubted his appointment months ago, but I almost feel like I should apologise to him now. The work he’s done with Lokomotiv’s players is truly outstanding. He’s turned Kamano and Smolov back into amazing attackers, for example, and made the team play some lovely, entertaining football. Honestly, if they keep this up, they’ll be in the top two next season; I don’t doubt it. Beating lowly Tambov right now, home or away, is not a tall order for any Russian team, especially not one that is playing as well as Lokomotiv are.

Verdict: Lokomotiv Moscow to win at 3/25.

Banker

PSV Eindhoven vs FC Groningen 

KO: (UK time)

PSV should be comfortable enough here. The northerners just don’t have enough going forward to upset them, and PSV have an abundance of firepower at their disposal. Whether they play well or not should be academic, really – the Eindhoven heavyweights should not struggle to collect the three points here.

Verdict: PSV Eindhoven to win at 3/10.

Featured game

Macarthur FC vs Melbourne City

KO: (UK time)

My initial idea was to avoid this game. City should be too good for Macarthur on any day of the week right now, but they’re not going to win every game, and this one has the potential to be a lot more tactical than most A-League matches, which makes them a lot less profitable, in my experience.

However, for today’s game, the home team have too many important players out. Remember that this group hasn’t been together for more than a few months now. They’ve improved a lot under Milicic but there are still signs of further work being needed, and that was especially true recently when star winger Susaeta was out against Brisbane Roar, making them horribly slow and predictable. They were better against Adelaide United but still lost because star defender Jovanovic went off injured, and they couldn’t deal with The Reds’ pressing. Last time out, they played out a 2-2 draw against the Jets in a very random game which probably should have just seen the Australian FA ban them both until next season.

What’s now left is a Macarthur team that is still without Jovanovic at the back, and still without Susaeta on the flank. With right-back Franjic also still out, that’s three of their best and most experienced players out. This club does not have the depth to cope with such, and the lads that come in aren’t used to their teammates yet. With Rose now lacking in end product, and no real speed for Benat to find other than him, Macarthur are going to look like they did at the start of the season for a while, ponderous, sideways, little chance creation, little conversion, and any goal conceded being a killer. I expect that to happen today too.

City are only without Atkinson for this match, which is handy for them. They enter the game on the back of yet another handsome derby victory, smashing seven past Melbourne Victory, so they’re on Cloud Nine. Better than that – that match saw them welcome back midfield terrier O’Neill, and also allowed ex-Sydney FC youngster Tilio to continue his seriously impressive cameos this season. He looks a seriously impressive player, although as always it’s Colakovski that I rate the highest; such a good dribbler.

Honestly, it’s hard to look past City for winning it this season. They’re too good in front of goal, at controlling games, and the work Kisnorbo has done with them mentally is really impressive. They’ve really matured, both as individuals and as a group. They’ve got options for every situation, Reis’ arrival has lent them that bit of experience when it comes to playing out from the back, and O’Neill’s return affords them a mobile midfielder if games aren’t going their way. With these impressive kids coming through too, I just can’t fault this City team in any area of the pitch.

I don’t know what else to say, really. City have been really good for a while now. Even when they’ve lost, or drawn, they’ve still been comfortably the better team, in my opinion. The last time these two teams met, City rattled in three early goals at a high tempo, which completely put Macarthur out of the game. More of the same could well happen today. As far as I am concerned, City should do a lot of damage to an injury-struck Macarthur FC today, home or away, hence my interest in the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.

Verdict: Melbourne City to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.

Additional games

Central Coast Mariners vs Sydney FC

KO: (UK time)

I’ve been quite open about my relative dislike of Sydney FC this season. I still don’t think Corica is the right man to lead them, and I can’t accept their refusal to invest in new players. With Le Fondre leaving pre-season, it was blatantly apparent that they’d need another striker – and they didn’t sign one until two or three weeks into the season, namely their former striker, Bobo. It took them a month to get him through quarantine and up to full speed too. Now, as the season is drawing to a conclusion, they’ve gone and re-signed Le Fondre(!) for reasons beyond my comprehension. Yes, they need another striker, but one that isn’t going to be on his way out next season. It reeks of poor preparation from The Sky Blues, and that’s honestly something I never associated with the club when Arnold was in charge.

I still have the same problems with Sydney FC as I have all season long. There’s not enough legs in the middle of the park, not enough stamina in the squad overall, not enough speed/good movement in the final third, and simply not enough drive in the team. They still have some of the best playmakers in the country, and a couple of really dangerous speedsters in Barbarouses and Buhagiar on breaks. They’ve got Retre back to sit in front of the back four, and his absence cost them the game against Adelaide United as they hit their usual “it’s the 70 minute mark – we’re knackered!” slump and had no way of keeping The Reds out. Retre may not be all that good, but he’s at least good at picking where he makes his fouls. Juric’s equaliser last time out came from a free-kick on the edge of the box; Retre would not have allowed things to go that far. So, yeah – there are good things here. Bobo is a good poacher, of course. Le Fondre won’t be able to play for at least two weeks, in my opinion. 

So there are good and bad things for Sydney right now. Grant’s absence today is far from ideal, given that the full-back operates as a makeshift winger more often than not to compensate for Sydney’s lack of natural wide players. Ordinarily, that would put me off backing them but I think that this type of match will suit them. I can’t imagine for a second that they’ll handle a Mariners press, not when it comes to sheer energy levels, but they can pass their way around teams well enough – and the Mariners are on a bit of a slide at the moment.

It really won’t take much to make this team good again but for now, I have to be really selective when backing or opposing them because they’re just not as efficient as they once were. That said, I really do think that today’s game will suit them. They owe the Mariners for their home defeat earlier in the season, they need the win, and it’s a favourable time to face the title hopefuls. I can see Sydney enjoying a game against a team that generally doesn’t like to have the ball.

I can’t deny that the Mariners can hurt them on the break through speedy, VfB Stuttgart-bound Kuol, or through the excellent link-up play of Urena and Simon. Playmaker de Silva returns to face the club where he never really shone, and he’ll be keen to impress. All in all, the Mariners put a great deal of effort into their matches, which is why they’re doing as well as they are. They’re tough to break down, they last longer than most because of their fitness levels, and they’re organised from front to back. It’s a really impressive setup, considering that they really don’t have that good of a squad.

The Mariners are slowing down, though – that’s the reality here. They’re beginning to get just a touch leggy, although I still think they’re in a better place than Sydney right now. They gave two silly goals away against Western Sydney in their 2-2 draw and should have lost, and they were too sluggish against Western United last time out. They’re not a team I want to underestimate but at the same time, I’m comfortably aware that they’ve significantly overacheived this season. Perhaps now is when things start to go south for them.

One of the greater mysteries of this squad is how Stajcic made their defence strong – because it’s really not. Tongyik’s injury problems, Rowles’ lack of quality, and their lack of alternatives – painful. Luckily for them, Bozanic screens really well. They’re going to be tested today though, as Tongyik got himself sent off last time out so he’s suspended, and make no mistake – he’s by far the better of their two centre-backs. Without him, I can see them struggling to handle what Sydney have to offer unless they’re able to maintain a high press.

I respect the Mariners and what they have to offer, and I do think they’ll give Sydney a good game today. However, I think affording Sydney all of the ball without your best defender is suicidal, and I think that experience will see the visitors through here. At 13/10, they’re worth the risk.

Verdict: Sydney FC to win at 13/10.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

Australian A-League:

Central Coast Mariners – Tongyik is absent. De Silva returns.
Sydney FC – Grant, Zullo, Zuvela, Niuwenhof, and Le Fondre are absent. Retre returns.
Macarthur FC – Franjic, Jovanovic, Susaeta, and Najjar are absent. McGing returns.
Melbourne City – Atkinson is absent,

Austrian Bundesliga:

SV Ried – No absentees.
St. Polten – Asadi, Muhamedbegovic, and Tursch are absent.
SCR Altach Schreiner is absent. Iyobosa Edokpolor and Obasi are doubts.
Hartberg – Lema is absent.
Admira Wacker – Babuscu, Rath, and Tomic are absent. Datkovic and Kadlec are doubts.
Austria Vienna – No absentees.

Croatian Prva Liga:

Sibenik
Slaven Koprivnica
Gorica
Lokomotiva Zagreb – 

Czechia Liga 1:

Sigma Olomouc – Gressak, Nespor, Veprek, Yunis are absent. Hala and Zahradnicek are doubts.
Banik Ostrava – Juroska is absent. Mena is a doubt.
Ceske Budejovice – Ledecky and Skovajsa are absent.
Baumit Jablonec – Holik is absent. Haitl is a doubt.
Mlada Boleslav – Dancak, Divis, Graiciar, Jirasek, Masek, Pech, and Tataev are absent. Simek is a doubt.
Slovan Liberec – Pesek and Rondic are absent.
Viktoria Plzen – Bucha, Cermak, and Hejda are absent.
Slovacko – Jurecka and Divisek are absent. Cicilia, Kalabiska, and Navratil are doubts.

English Premier League:

Liverpool – Jones returns. Phillips is a doubt. Van Dijk, Gomez, Kelleher, Henderson, Origi, and Matip are absent.
Newcastle United – Saint-Maximin returns. Fraser, Hayden, Lascelles, Schar, and Darlow are absent.
West Ham United Cresswell is a doubt. Dawson is absent. Masuaku, Lingard, Rice, and Antonio return.
Chelsea – Mendy returns. Kovacic is absent.
Sheffield United Berge, Basham, O’Connell, Sharp, and McBurnie are absent.
Brighton & Hove Albion – Tau returns. White, Lamptey, and March are absent.  

Finnish Veikkausliiga:

HJK – No news.
FC Honka Espoo – Alegria is absent.
Inter Turku No news.
KuPS – Savolainen and Ikaunieks are absent.

French Ligue 1:

AS Saint-Etienne – Bajic, Bouanga, Boudebouz, Macon, and Modeste are absent.
Stade Brestois – Cibois, Charbonnier, Faivre, Herelle, Lucas, Lasne, and Mounie are absent.
Metz Cabit, N’Doram, Nguette, Niane, Pajot, and Tchimbembe are absent.
Paris Saint-Germain – Navas, Rafinha, Verratti, Marquinhos, Letellier, Diallo, and Bernat are absent. 

German Bundesliga:

VfL Wolfsburg – Kasten, Klinger, Lang, and Steffen are absent. Lacroix is a doubt. Otavio and Mbabu return.
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund – Hummels, Moukoko, Schmelzer, Raschl, Witsel, Zagadou, and Unbehaun are absent. Delaney is a doubt.
SC Freiburg – Santamaria is absent. Grifo returns.
TSG Hoffenheim – Akpoguma, Bicakcic, Geiger, Brenet, B. Hubner, Klein, Philipp, Rudy, and Stafylidis are basent.
Union Berlin – Awoniyi, Becker, Dajaku, Kemlein, and Ujah are absent.
Werder Bremen – Plogmann, Badjie, Schonfelder, Toprak, Veljkovic, and Woltemade are absent. Gross returns..
Mainz 05 Hanin, Kilian, Mustapha, Liesegang, Papela, Tauer, and Nebel are absent. Da Costa returns.
Bayern Munich – Arp, Costa, R. Hoffmann, Oberlin, Roca, Sieb, Stanisic, Sule, Tolisso, Vita, and Zaiser are absent. Lewandowski and Gnabry may return.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Arias, Baumgartlinger, L. Bender, Gedikli, and Fosu-Mensah are absent.
Eintracht Frankfurt – Ache, Bordner, Brugger, Fahrnberger, Makanda, Toure, and Rode are absent. Younes returns. 

German Bundesliga 2:

Paderborn 07 – Burgy and Correia are absent.
Fortuna Dusseldorf – Pledl is absent.
VfL Osnabrück – Bapoh, Grot, Ihorst, Reis, and Schmidt are absent.
Holstein Kiel – Thesker, Muhling, Kirkeskov, and Ignjovski are absent.
Nurnberg – Besong, Goden, Klandt, Knothe, Kopke, Lohkemper, Lukse, Schaffler, Sorg, and Schleusener are absent. Hack returns.
Heidenheim – Burnic, Kerschbaumer, Mollo, and Theuerkauf are absent. 

Israeli Ligat Ha’al:

Hapoel Haifa – Sirostein, Barsky, Ben-Basat, Zamir, Shahr, and Ghannem are absent.
Bnei Sakhnin – Kayal, Fallach, Velasquez, Kelly are absent. Rian is a doubt. Ghanaim returns.
Hapoel Kfar Saba – Reichart, Cohen, Stoyanov, Shelach, Israeli, Danino, and Makhlouf are absent.
Maccabi Netanya – Rotation likely. Sehovic, Ashkenazi, Amos, and Banda are absent.
Hapoel Tel-Aviv Altman, Gottlieb, Azaria, and Liedner are absent. Elias returns.
Beitar Jerusalem – Shua, itzan, Zargari, Adi, Verdasca, and Vered are absent. 

Italian Serie A:

Genoa – Pellegrini and Radovanovic are absent.
Spezia – Mattiello is a doubt.
Parma – Nicolussi Caviglia, Cyprien, Zirkzee, Kucka, Iacoponi, and Inglese are absent. Conti is a doubt.
Crotone – Marrone is absent.
Sassuolo – Romagna, Caputo, and Djuricic are absent.
Sampdoria – Torregrossa is absent. Ekdal is a doubt.

Dutch Eredivisie:

SC Heerenveen – Bochniewicz is absent.
PEC Zwolle – Chirino, Bajselmani, Reijnders, Pherai, van Wermeskerken, Buitink, and Misidjan are absent.
Sparta Rotterdam – Pinto and Coremans are absent.
VVV Venlo – Janssen, Kum, Giakoumakis, Shabani, and Gelmi are absent.
PSV Eindhoven – Gutierrez, Mauro Junior, Romero, Ledezma, and Thomas are absent.
FC Groningen – da Cruz, Robben, and van Hintum are absent.

Romanian Liga 1:

CFR Cluj – No news.
Universitatea Craiova – Balasa is absent.
Astra Giurgiu – No news.
Arges – No news.

Russian Premier League:

Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast Bicfalvi and El Kabir are absent.
Akhmat Grozny – Utsiev, Kharin, and Bystrov are absent.
Zenit St. Petersburg – Azmoun and Lovren are absent.
Rotor Volgograd – No absentees.
Dinamo Moscow – Evgenyev, Lesovoy, and N’Jie are absent.
FK Khimki – Danilkin, olgov, Dyadyun, Glushakov, and Kazantsev are absent.
Tambov – No absentees.
Lokomotiv Moscow – Guilherme, Lysov, and Ignjatev are absent.

Spanish Primera Liga:

Elche – Carrillo is absent.
Levante – Campana, Miramon, Radoja, and Vukcevic are absent.
Real Valladolid – El Yamiq, Garcia, Sanchez, and Weissmann are absent.
Cadiz – Quezada, Perea, and Alex are absent.
Valencia – Cillessen, Correia, and Soler are absent.
Deportivo Alaves – Abqar, Cordoba, Duarte, and Ely are absent.
Real Madrid – Kroos, Lucas Vazquez, Mendy, and Valverde are absent. Hazard is a doubt.
Real Betis Balompie – Camarasa, Fekir, Martin, and Tello are absent. 

Swedish Allsvenskan:

BK Hacken Goteborg – Irandust, Tuominen, Olsson, and Abrahamsson are absent.
Sirius – No absentees.

Swiss Super League:

St. Gallen Abaz, Krauchi, Letard, and Quintilla are absent.
Vaduz – Obexer, Prokopic, and Wieser are absent.
Lausanne Sport – Falk, Geissmann, Mastil, E. Monteiro, Turkes, Schmidt, Zekhnini, and Zohouri are absent.
FC Basel – Zhegrova, Xhaka, Jorge, and Padula are absent. 

Swiss Challenge League:

SC Kriens – Souare and Yesilcayir are absent. Luan is a doubt.
Wil – Ismaili and Izmirlioglu are absent. 

Turkish Super Lig:

Konyaspor – Uludag, Bircan, Anicic, and Milosevic are absent. Diomande, Findikli, Calik, Eduok, and Cagiran are doubts.
Hatayspor – Diouf, Boyar, and Ilgaz are absent. Ornek is a doubt.
Trabzonspor Bakasetas, Trondsen, and Malli are absent. Parmak is a doubt.
Faith Karagumruk – Erdem, Altinay, Kablan, Sobiech, Balkovec, and Roco are absent. Borini, Castro, Tatli, Campi, Bertolacci, and Zukanovic are doubts.
Denizlispor – Yilmaz and Yasin are absent. Altintas, Niyaz, Gonen, Sacko, and Yumlu are doubts.
Sivasspor – Erdal and Rybalka are absent. Appindangoye and Boyd are doubts.
Antalyaspor – Bayradkar and Albayrak are absent. Kudryashov, Sahin, Balci, Sam, Sari, Ozmert, and Sinink are doubts.
Galatasaray – Omar, Yedlin, Onyekuru, Mohamed, Falcao are absent. Linnes and Gedson are doubts.

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

Australian A-League:

Central Coast Mariners vs Sydney FC (5) 1-2
Macarthur FC vs Melbourne City (6) 0-2

Austrian Bundesliga:

SV Ried vs St. Polten (6) 2-1
SCR Altach vs Hartberg (6) 1-1
Admira Wacker vs Austria Vienna (5) 2-1

Bulgarian A PFG:

Etar vs Slavia Sofia (5) 1-1
Montana vs Beroe (5) 0-1

Croatian Prva Liga:

Sibenik vs Slaven Koprivnica (5) 1-2
Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb (5) 1-0

Czechia Liga 1:

Sigma Olomouc vs Banik Ostrava (5) 0-1
Ceske Budejovice vs Baumit Jablonec (5) 1-2
Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec (5) 2-1
Viktoria Plzen vs Slovacko (6) 2-0

English Premier League:

Liverpool vs Newcastle United (6) 1-0
West Ham United vs Chelsea (5) 1-1
Sheffield United vs Brighton & Hove Albion (6) 0-1

Finnish Veikkausliiga:

HJK vs FC Honka Espoo (6) 2-0
Inter Turku vs KuPS (6) 1-2

French Ligue 1:

AS Saint-Etienne
vs Stade Brestois (6) 1-0
Metz vs Paris Saint-Germain (5) 1-1

German Bundesliga:

VfL Wolfsburg vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund (5) 1-1
SC Freiburg vs TSG Hoffenheim (5) 2-1
Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen (6) 1-0
Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich (5) 2-2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt (5) 1-1

German Bundesliga 2:

Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Dusseldorf (5) 2-2
VfL Osnabrück vs Holstein Kiel (6) 0-2
Nurnberg vs Heidenheim (5) 1-2

Hungarian Liga 1:

Puskas FC vs Zalaegerszegi TE (6) over 2.5 goals
Varda SE vs Diosgyori VTK (5) 1-1
Ujpest vs MTK Budapest (5) 1-1

Israeli Ligat Ha’al:

Hapoel Haifa vs Bnei Sakhnin (5) 2-1
Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Maccabi Netanya (5) 2-1
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Beitar Jerusalem (5) 0-1

Italian Serie A:

Genoa vs Spezia (5) 2-2
Parma vs Crotone (6) over 2.5 goals
Sassuolo vs Sampdoria (6) over 2.5 goals

Lithuanian A Lyga:

Hegelmann Litauen vs Dziugas Tesliai (5) 2-1
Banga Gargzdai vs Kauno Zalgiris (6) 1-2
Nevezis vs Dainava (6) 1-0

Dutch Eredivisie:

SC Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle (5) 2-1
Sparta Rotterdam vs VVV Venlo (6) over 2.5 goals
PSV Eindhoven vs FC Groningen (7) 2-0

Portuguese Liga 2:

Academica de Coimbra vs Chaves (5) 0-1
Leixoes Matosinhos vs Feirense (5) 1-2
Varzim vs Vizela (6) 0-0
Mafra vs Sporting Covilha (5) 0-0

Romanian Liga 1:

CFR Cluj vs Universitatea Craiova (5) 1-0
Astra Giurgiu vs Arges (6) 2-1

Russian Premier League:

Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast vs Akhmat Grozny (6) 1-1
Zenit St. Petersburg vs Rotor Volgograd (7) 2-0
Dinamo Moscow vs FK Khimki (5) 2-1
Tambov vs Lokomotiv Moscow (7) 0-2

Spanish Primera Liga:

Elche vs Levante (5) 1-1
Real Valladolid vs Cadiz (5) 1-0
Valencia vs Deportivo Alaves (6) 1-1
Real Madrid vs Real Betis Balompie (6) 1-0

Swedish Allsvenskan:

BK Hacken Goteborg vs Sirius (6) 2-1

Swiss Super League:

St. Gallen vs Vaduz (5) 1-1
Lausanne Sport vs FC Basel (5) 2-1

Swiss Challenge League:

SC Kriens vs Wil (6) 0-0

Turkish Super Lig:

Konyaspor vs Hatayspor (5) 1-2
Trabzonspor vs Faith Karagumruk (4) 1-1
Denizlispor vs Sivasspor (5) 1-2
Antalyaspor vs Galatasaray (5) 1-1

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