TFT Issue 3410!

Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United

KO: 07:10 (UK time)

I’d like to think that Adelaide United would be pumped up here, given that all of their title rivals drew yesterday. However, they don’t tend to handle matches too well when their opponents can match their intensity levels – and few A-League teams are as intense as Phoenix are.

There’s good news in the Adelaide ranks though, given that Yengi is now back from injury. Mohamed Toure is no longer injured either, although he’ll need a week or two of training before they’ll consider including him in their matchday squad – or so they’ve said. All they need now is Lopez and Jakobsen back in defence, and then there’s a very legitimate title contender in the equation. It’d be a delight to see them win the title with such a large number of young Australian footballers in their squad too.

Of course, it was Juric pre-season, and then Goodwin/Juande signing that made the difference for them though. They’re the type of experienced lads that know how to bounce back from defeats, or how to play when under the cosh. Goodwin and Juric have been particularly decisive in tough games, and that’s given The Reds enough of an edge to be considered as title contenders. 

Their youngsters have been phenomenal, though. Yengi, both Toures, Cavallo, Delianov, Gauci – all superstars in their own right. Boss Veart having managed the youngsters from a very young age indeed clearly helps a lot because this team really is a solid group. They work hard for one another at all times, and they play some lovely football too. I may not trust them defensively, especially not when Jakobsen is out, but I do trust them to stay in games by virtue of the goals they score – and that’s all I want from them today too.

It’s a good time to face Phoenix, considering that DeVere is still injured, and understudy centre-back Hudson-Wihongi is too. Taylor is back in the fold to help out, and he’s naturally brilliant, but Phoenix aren’t as strong at the back as usual. Their form guide of late may look fairly good but the goals they’ve conceded along the way have been very concerning. For example, they didn’t look in any danger against Western United (the meeting a couple of weeks back!) until they gave a penalty away. I know Chianese took his opportunity well for the Glory, but why was he given so much time on the ball? These things are very un-Phoenix, if I can put it that way.

However, they’ve lost none of their work-rate, and have actually become quite good in front of goal. Hemed has made it clear that he does want to be a part of this exciting project that Talay has going on, and he’s being kept on his toes by youngster Waine, who keeps finding the net. Cards on the table – I’ve not been impressed with any of his goals but hey, he’s scoring them, and that’s what counts. Even Sotirio scored a one-on-one lately, and any A-League follower can tell you how rare that is for the rash winger. 

Phoenix are fast, they move the ball swiftly, and possess tremendous engines so they seldom run out of energy. That’s what makes them so complicated to deal with. Typically, they are hard to break down and a bit too wasteful in front of goal. They’re the polar opposite right now though, giving away silly goals but converting more than ever. They’re a mentally strong team that isn’t afraid of a physical battle though, and that makes them a good opponent for Adelaide in a competitive sense. I’m curious to see which way this one goes.

The 1×2 market does nothing for me here; either team could win this. Adelaide have a stronger attack but Phoenix can hurt them with their intensity. For me, the best idea here is to back over 3 goals.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 4/5.

SV Sandhausen vs Hannover 96 

KO: 12:30 (UK time)

The decision to back Sandhausen here was a bit of a chess move, folks – let’s hope I remember how to play, huh?

So – Sandhausen are in the relegation zone. How, I couldn’t tell you; I like their squad a lot. For me, they were dark horses to push for a promotion place pre-season, not that I thought they’d actually go up. Instead, they’re battling against the drop with teams that they’re better than. It’s a funny old game sometimes, isn’t it?

Now, they’ve been around for a while, Sandhausen. They know how to avoid relegation; they’ve done it enough times in the past with worse squads than this one. They know how to make it count at home too, hence their superb home record throughout 2021. I’d like to think that would continue today. I recognise that Hannover 96 are the better team but it’s not like the visitors have any real consistency, and it’s hard to imagine much motivation for them with nothing to gain or lose from the remainder of their campaign. I do like the visitors’ squad, but perhaps this isn’t the time for them to show what they’re capable of. Their 3-1 win against Jahn Regensburg last time out was enough to secure their Bundesliga 2 status.

For Sandhausen though, this is a must-win game. I don’t just say that because they’re in the relegation battle, but also because of their remaining fixtures. After this game, they’ve got four remaining away games against Greuther Furth, Holstein Kiel, Heidenheim, and VfL Bochum. I don’t want to appear too negative on a team I rate highly, but if they get anything from any of those games, it’ll be bordering on a fucking miracle because those four teams are better, and are pushing for promotion. It’s fair to say that, unless in absolute dire need, they’re going to have to write those fixtures off, which makes this home game – as well as the one against Jahn Regensburg – incredibly important to Sandhausen.

With that, plus two consecutive wins under their belts, I think they’re well set to get a positive result today. No promises, obviously – Hannover 96 are the better team. However, I saw some of the old Sandhausen against Hamburger SV, still playing with real balls despite taking a comfortable lead against one of the division’s top teams, Hamburger SV. They still attacked, and still caused problems. If they can maintain that positive, confident mentality today, I don’t see Hannover 96 having enough drive to stop the home team here, especially not with Keita-Ruel finally back amongst the goals. I’m aware that defensive regular Roseler is out, and it’s not ideal, but I believe today’s game will come down to a battle of wills – and I trust Sandhausen more in that respect.

Hannover 96 concede way too many goals in general, which is the way it’s been for the entire season. There was a brief spell earlier in 2021 where I thought that they’d finally figured out how to defend without Falette but it turned out to be a false alarm. Hannover 96 are simply one of those teams that, just like Nurnberg and Fortuna Dusseldorf, play as if the world owes them something, you know? Alright, they’re not as bad as Nurnberg on that front in the sense that they at least work hard sometimes; Nurnberg never do nowadays. However, opposing a team like Hannover 96 is something I find myself wanting to do more than I should, given how much quality they have access too, and it all stems rather simply from them not having the level of desire that the Bundesliga 2 requires.

I’ll put it like this. If Hannover 96, for whatever reason, manage to turn up today, then we’re fucked. They’re too good for Sandhausen. However, assuming that they don’t – which is very logical at the present time – then it makes every sense to back the desperate home team here, especially with draw no bet cover. They’ve got momentum, they’re better than the table portrays, and they want it more. Given my complete absence of luck yesterday, I’m happy to bank on at least some of it returning in this game today, hence the tip.

Verdict: SV Sandhausen to win with draw no bet at 19/20.

St. Pauli vs Greuther Furth

KO: 12:30 (UK time)

I doubt I’m more curious about any other game in any league today than this one. Greuther Furth are gunning for promotion, and need to keep winning. St. Pauli are riding the crest of a wave though; they’ve been the best team in the division in 2021. They might just fancy their own chances of making the play-offs, and who would bet against it whilst they’re playing like they are? Not me!

Admittedly, if they lost a couple, then I might suspect them ‘accidentally’ losing this one, purely to keep Hamburger SV in the division that bit longer. However, I think St. Pauli are enjoying their football too much right now to consider the ins and outs of what could occur in scenario x, y, or z. That’s the beauty of what St. Pauli are doing. Yes, they’ve found Marmoush and Burgstaller to be a dream combination for them, but everything good they’ve done in 2021 has come from them enjoying their football, and playing very entertaining stuff. It’s hard to pick fault with something like that.

The above is especially true because St. Pauli were fearing the worst earlier in the season. They started the season dreadfully, missing way too much important players (some of which are still out), and playing without any energy or structure. It was way too easy to play against them, and I lost count of how many times I opposed the Hamburg club for that reason. However, getting Burgstaller back from injury was huge; he was always going to be too good for this level, although ironically never really good enough for the Bundesliga. Marmoush has done well, injecting some speed up front rather than just the brawn and aerial presence of Makienok, or the inconsistency of Kyereh. Suddenly they’ve got a lethal attack with a lot of different options, and that – fused with their natural workmanlike approach – has made them incredibly hard to deal with.

They were brought back down to earth last time out by defeat against inconsistent Fortuna Dusseldorf but the law of averages meant a loss was due. It generally takes a lot more than a single loss to derail a mentally tough team like St. Pauli, and thus I expect them to bounce back today. Whether that earns them a positive result or not remains to be seen; I simply can’t call that one. Greuther Furth are due a loss, but they also have a stronger squad balance than St. Pauli, and it could be argued that the home team need the win more than the visitors. So, yeah – the 1×2 market is a tough one.

It’s not really in the nature of the Bundesliga 2 to play defensively though, so I certainly don’t envision Greuther Furth travelling to Hamburg with the intent of playing out a game of chess. Besides, I’d argue that St. Pauli have better finishers than they do so I think they need to press home their overall balance superiority here – or risk making a mess of things. They’re in a good position in the promotion race, Greuther Furth, but they’re not safe enough to take games lightly so I expect a professional showing from them today.

The problem I’ve had with Greuther Furth over the past few weeks is that they’re starting to look tired. Particularly open games have been draining them; I still don’t know how they were allowed back into the Nurnberg game, for example, not after they afforded their opponents fifteen minutes(!) of unchecked attacks down the right flank in the second-half, which turned a 1-0 lead into a 2-1 loss until the dying embers. It was a similar story against another intense opponent too, namely Darmstadt 98. I don’t doubt the quality of Greuther Furth; just their legs at the moment.

I wouldn’t pay much mind to their dominant win against Braunschweig last time out; the visitors were without their best defender for that game, and fell behind early on. Today’s game is a much harder test for Greuther Furth. They’ve had a very good record against St. Pauli over the past couple of seasons but I would argue that St. Pauli haven’t played as well as they are right now in a long time. Greuther Furth really are going to be at their absolute best if they’re to win this game.

St. Pauli are not the only team with Bundesliga level forwards, either – Greuther Furth have Nielsen, Hrgota, and Berggreen, whenever the latter gets fit again. That, fused with the brilliance of former Bayern Munich attacker Green, and breakout seasons from Seguin and Ernst behind them has ensured that Greuther Furth always have routes to goal. Their defence and defending can be good, but should not be trusted today as their key defender Mavraj is out again. If they’re to win in Hamburg today, I think they’re going to need to score two or three goals.

The 1×2 market may not interest me here, but backing over 3 goals at 51/50 really does. I’m optimistic that this will be a great game.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 51/50.

Budafoki MTE vs Paksi SE

KO: 13:30 (UK time)

The situation for today’s game in Hungary is rather simple; Budafoki MTE must win – or they’re relegated. Truth be told, they’re probably already goners but they can’t afford to think that way, and nor have they played that way lately.

Indeed, I backed them recently because of how brave they were in the capital against MTK Budapest, picking up a well-earned draw – and they arguably should have won it. However, losing against Diosgyori VTK, especially at home, was a real kick in the balls for them. That’s probably the nail in the coffin lid. Then they fell apart against Zalaegerszegi TE too, which was far from helpful. So, yeah – it’s win or bust for them today. There’s no real reason for them to think that they can’t beat Paksi SE either; it’s not like they’re facing Ferencvaros.

However, I actually think that this will be a nightmare game for the home team. Paksi SE have been especially good in 2021, and are a solitary goal away from being the highest-scoring team in Hungary. Considering that ‘Casino George’ has assembled his squad from misfits and forgotten men, it’s bordering on a miracle that they’ve been able to do what they have. They’ve played utterly fearless, scintillating football, and have devastated plenty of opponents on their way to it too. If there’s one team in Hungary that you don’t want to have to beat, it’s them – and yet that’s precisely the prospect that confronts poor Budafoki MTE here.

The home team can score enough goals to win this game; Paksi SE will see to that! However, keeping Hahn, Bode, Bognar etc. at bay whilst they do so seems incredibly optimistic of them, especially whilst the away team are chasing European football for next season. Remember that Paksi SE – largely because of their entirely Hungarian squad – have a tremendous sense of togetherness and team spirit. When you watch them play, it’s for the love of the game, nothing else. Even if they had nothing to play for, I still think they’d give Budafoki MTE a rough ride for that reason. 

Ironically, I suspect that Budafoki MTE would have preferred to face a superior team like Ujpest or MTK Budapest here; teams that haven’t got anything left to play for. Plucky Paksi SE, with nothing to lose and everything to gain, is not who you want to turn up at such times – but that’s who is here.

For me, whichever way this one goes (and I think it’ll be the visitors!), backing over 3.5 goals makes complete sense. 

Verdict: Over 3.5 goals at 137/100.

Leeds United vs Manchester United

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Well, now, isn’t this a novelty? I may be a Manchester United fan, but I’m probably the most realistic one you’ll come across. I’ve found it incredibly hard to back my team this season because although we’re getting a lot right, and we have the perfect man to lead us to better days in the years to come, we’re still getting things wrong too. Quite what the point is in consistently falling behind away from home only to come back and win, I couldn’t tell you – but hey, it works! Besides, after years of watching van Gaal and Mourinho destroy this team, watching a team play with more ambition and adventure is a real breath of fresh air, even if things don’t always go according to plan.

So – a few things to get out of the way first that bug me about people that don’t watch my team. Yes, Maguire is massively overrated, but we’re far better defensively with him than without him, even if he does annoy the shit out of me sometimes. No, Fernandes is not God – he works bloody hard, but is running on empty – and so he should be after playing almost every match for the past 18 months. He’s been quite poor for most of 2021 actually, not that most pundits have commented on it. Yes, Shaw really is that good at the moment. And yes, Pogba is brilliant, and I fervently hope he stays; anyone that thinks United are better off without him is an idiot, and you shouldn’t listen to them ever again.

When these two old foes last met, Manchester United won 6-2. I certainly wasn’t unhappy about that scoreline, but it was harsh on Leeds United. They played well in that game, and scored a beautiful goal to boot. They worked tirelessly, were mentally strong, and got a lot right. However, despite having world-class Bielsa at the helm, they’re still a Championship team at the core. That means that sometimes they’re amazing, and sometimes they’re atrocious; there’s not really a middle ground with a Bielsa team. Trust me – I watched Athletic religiously when he was in charge!

I don’t expect an easier game for Manchester United today either. I’m sure Leeds United will attack them from the beginning, pressing hard and high, and forcing errors, which the likes of Maguire and Lindelof (mostly when played alongside one another, ironically – they’re both far better when playing alongside Bailly) love to give away. I would not be surprised if Leeds United took the lead here, nor even scored a couple of goals in the game. I’m confident that the Yorkshire club will keep this game entertaining, even if the away team try to shut it down a little in order to contain them.

However, the problem with Bielsa teams, as per usual, is that they attack too much. It’s like they don’t really know when to attack, and when not to. On one hand, that makes his teams very entertaining to watch, but it can also lead to disaster. I said earlier that Leeds United played deceptively well in their 6-2 defeat, and they did – but they still lost 6-2. That was the scoreline because they were naive enough to not know when to defend, or to not know to ease off the gas. It’s a Bielsa trademark, I’m afraid. 

The brutal reality here is that Manchester United are better at attacking than Leeds United. The only reason that Manchester United struggle to score goals at any given time is because their opponents park the bus – that’s when it becomes hard. Truth be told, it surprised me when we beat Burnley, a team we traditionally struggle with, after they drew level. Still, it’s testament to the mental work that Solskjaer has done with the team that they kept going, tried different things, and made the win come – and it’s not the first time I’ve seen them do it this season. Anyway, the point is that teams aren’t stupid enough to attack a team that counters really well. Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur – none of those teams attempted such because of it. It’s not the way to play against Manchester United – but it’s what Leeds United will do.

You can bet on goals, if you’d prefer – I’m sure there’ll be plenty. However, for me, it’s the away win that makes more sense here. Rodrigo being out, and Raphina being a doubt makes it harder for Leeds United to make their mark here, and Manchester United are just deadly when given too much room, even with Fernandes considerably out of form. For me, it’s an away win – and expect cards! I don’t know how many of you aren’t from England, but rest assured that Manchester United and Leeds United share an intense hatred for one another that goes back a long way. I can’t speak for all United fans, but they’re the second biggest rival for us behind Liverpool in my world. 

Verdict: Manchester United to win at 4/5.

Rubin Kazan vs FK Krasnodar 

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

Is it time to start backing Krasnodar again? I think so. Bringing in talented boss Goncharenko after his surprising CSKA Moscow exit was a good move, in my opinion – he can not only help them build again, but also encourage them to play more attractive football rather than the fearful, erratic shit they’ve been churning out for most of this season. I still can’t figure out how they conceded as many goals as they did against Dinamo Zagreb, but there we are!

The Goncharenko era started brightly; his team claimed a 2-2 draw with soon-to-be-champions Zenit St. Petersburg. It wasn’t so much the result that impressed me, but moreso the manner of it. That old Krasnodar fight and energy was back, as well as their attacking intent. People tend to forget just how good this team is. On their day, they’re capable of outplaying any Russian team. They may not have the best squad balance, nor the most financial backing, but they do play the best football in the country in my opinion, at least when the right man is in charge.

I expect to see Krasnodar turn it on for the remainder of this campaign now. There’s nothing left for them to achieve but they need to remember what it’s like to have some pride, and they need to remind other Russian teams of just how good they can be. There’s no pressure on them to perform, and they’ve got a mostly healthy squad for a change. This is a top four team; suffer no illusions on that front. It’s just about proving it on the pitch, and they should be able to do that today. They look a lot fresher and more confident already, and when you’ve got class acts like Claesson, Cabella, Vihena, and Wanderson in your squad, you’ll never be far away from wins.

Opposing Rubin Kazan is brave though. They’ve been marvellous this season; their gambles on signing unknown Georgian youngsters have paid huge dividends with now half of Europe interested in wonderkid dribbler and creator, Kvaratshkelia. It may not have worked out quite so favourably for his fellow countryman Davitashvili, now at doomed Rotor Volgograd, but the former has been a real revelation. I’ll eat my hat if he doesn’t move on this summertime, and that’s not entirely because Rubin Kazan are in no position financially to refuse any offers!

The problem they now have is that he got injured against Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast, and it looked quite bad. The speculation in the Russian media is that he’ll miss the rest of the campaign, and I believe it. I’m certainly not saying that they’re a one-man band, Rubin Kazan, but it’s fair to say that he was their best player. He’s the one that linked up with Serbian target man Despotovic the best, and without him, I struggle to see a viable route for them to do so. Makarov and Jevtic will still work hard, of course, but I can see an absentee like this really sapping the energy and belief from this predominantly youthful setup.

It couldn’t have come at a worse time too. Three of their remaining four Premier League games are at home, and European football is very much in their sights. The Moscow clubs are all more capable and more experienced though, and now Rubin Kazan are without their star man. That in itself is bad enough, but then tackling a wounded bear like Krasnodar, who have nothing to lose here, is doubly bad. Contrary to what the league table suggests, Krasnodar are considerably better than Rubin Kazan, and are finally in some kind of position to prove it. I understand why the bookies have priced this game as they have, but I believe there’s value in Krasnodar here now that certain things have changed.

Therefore, I believe that the value lies on the away win with draw no bet cover.

Verdict: FK Krasnodar to win with draw no bet at 4/5.

Botosani vs Academica Clinceni 

KO: 17:15 (UK time)

The general consensus in Romania is that Botosani are ‘pleasers’, if you will. They’re happy to keep their allies on their side for other handy situations in the future, hence them almost deliberately dropping points against Romania’s top teams, but they’re equally as happy to turn up in games that have no political bearing – like this one.

Working on the assumption that Universitatea Craiova win the Cupa Romaniei – not an unrealistic outcome – then there’s a European place up for grabs. That should motivate Botosani here. They’ve got more than enough quality to get it, too. They’ll surrender points to the big boys until the league is over, but after that they can call in a few favours so I think they’re in a good position to make it happen too.

Helpfully, they’re only hosting Academica Clinceni today. To give you an idea about where they’re at, they’re simply happy to be part of the top six in the country, which pretty much makes history for them. They’re here to enjoy themselves and make up the numbers; nothing more. If Botosani cannot beat a team like that at home, then they’ve got some serious questions to ask themselves. 

It was different when the two teams met earlier in the season. Both game were tight, with neither team really assured of where they’d finish in the Liga 1 table, and even the one that Academica Clinceni won only came about because Seroni was dismissed for Botosani on the day. Assuming they’re not as silly as that today in what should be a more open game that both teams need to win, I’d like to think that Botosani would triumph by virtue of simply having better players.

Midfielder Florescu is suspended for the hosts here, which isn’t ideal, but as long as Keyta, Al Mawas, and Ongenda show up – and possibly even lazy Toutouh – then Botosani should have enough about them to pick up three points here. The visitors really don’t have anything to offer at such a high level, and their recent defeats against the top two teams in Romania came about because of friendly relations with FCSB, and of course when they were ravaged by Covid-19 in Cluj, something which is still ongoing now. Boss Poenaru insists he’s alright to take charge of this game, despite having been one of the infected, but time will tell if he’s trying to play mind games or not.

What is certain for the visitors is that they’re going to be without a number of players for this one because of Covid-19, namely Markovic, Bilali, Dumitru, and Jutric. That’s one of their best defenders and their regular winger that’s out here, as well as a couple of rotation options. It could be worse for the visitors – just imagine what they’d be like if they were missing Tanase or Rusescu! – but these are not ideal conditions in which to face a good Botosani side. They are enjoying being part of the Romanian elite, if only for a little while, but I think they’re out of their depth in games like these.

Therefore, I trust in the home win at 11/10.

Verdict: Botosani to win at 11/10.

AGF vs FC Copenhagen 

KO: 19:00 (UK time)

I was going to back FC Copenhagen to win in Aarhus tonight but then I stopped myself. I mena, why risk it? I don’t mind trusting the capital club to do enough against Randers, for example, because I know that their firepower should see them through. However, AGF are good enough in the final third to worry them so why take that risk?

Furthermore, you have to appreciate that FC Copenhagen’s mauling at the hands of the reigning champions mid-week means that their Superligaen title race is all but over, at least in the players’ heads. Mentally, they’re just not tough enough to compete for titles anymore, FC Copenhagen. They’ve got some seriously talented players, particularly in the final third, but this is no longer the ruthlessly efficient winning machine that they once were – and the same can be said of their bitter rivals, Brondby. There’s only one natural group of winners in Denmark at the moment, and that’s the team that will soon be crowned champions yet again – FC Midtjylland.

So FC Copenhagen’s season is basically over. The only thing that might spur them on here is that they can still catch Brondby in the table. They’re looking far more dangerous in the final third than their local rivals, and far more full of life too. In that sense, FC Copenhagen are in a better place than Brondby right now, and catching them is not so far-fetched as it may appear. At least that may spare some of FC Copenhagen’s blushes. I expect them to go for the win today though, which paves the way for an interesting game.

See, the reason I didn’t want to back them to win is because they can’t keep clean sheets. Ever. All it takes is some pressure and balls, and FC Copenhagen will concede. FC Nordsjaelland and FC Midtjylland both did that to them recently, and I am confident that AGF can do the same. Therefore, FC Copenhagen winning today would logically involve them scoring at least two goals, and in that case, why not just back over 2.5 goals instead? It’s safer because it’s not like AGF are content to remain in third; they’d like to catch Brondby too. Brondby’s lacklustre displays of late have only served as encouragement for those chasing them so AGF might well fancy their own chances of finishing higher – but they must win today.

I doubt that AGF fear FC Copenhagen; the away team haven’t outplayed them in years. They’ve outscored them sometimes, but AGF know how to push their buttons. Furthermore, it’s fair to say that AGF have progressed rather well as a club under Nielsen, especially over the past couple of years. They’ve signed some very exciting attackers, got a natural poacher in Mortensen, and play some lovely football at times too. I like their fearlessness the most though; they just want to go at teams. 

Constant absentees in defence have cost them throughout the season, and with Tingager still out, things are far from ideal. Backman’s long-awaited return will help in due course but this isn’t a team that can be trusted to keep clean sheets either, no matter how hard they work. Much like today’s opponents though, they’re natural goal-scorers – and the FC Copenhagen defence couldn’t keep a cow out as they’re too slow, both mentally and physically. AGF can hurt them here, that’s for sure, so although I do think that FC Copenhagen both could and should win the match, backing over 2.5 goals suits me far more.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.