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KO: (UK time)
Santa Clara have played well lately, and Benfica have have some recent reminders that they do not know how to defend. However, I have to trust in a Benfica win here; they’ve got more firepower than the islanders, and these two teams are on good terms.
Verdict: SL Benfica to win at 7/25.
KO: (UK time)
I’ve not been blown away by Karlsruher SC in 2021. I think they’ve looked a bit fatigued, which is to be expected for a team that can’t rotate much. Naturally, their purported promotion push has fallen by the wayside because of too many draws, and there aren’t many teams I’d back them to beat today because of that.
However, Aue is one of those teams. They’re all but guaranteed Bundesliga 2 football next season, hence their somewhat disinterested display against Nurnberg. I would not read much into the Braunschweig win, either – they were desperate, and without their best defender, who changed the course of their season when he arrived earlier in 2021. Aue aren’t playing with their usual tenacity and belief because of a lack of motivation, and that’s very dangerous for a very below average team. They’ve got a few decent target men, as ever, but there’s nothing special about this team. As soon as the motivation goes, they’re sitting ducks, which is precisely what I expect tonight.
The other element for Aue is that this is their third game in six days, which they are in no way prepared for. I think they’ve been lucky enough to face a couple of teams lately that are not too hot when it comes to pace and intelligent movement, but we’re still essentially talking about part-timers trying to play three times in six days. It’s simply too much for Aue, in my opinion. There’s not much life in their squad as it is; most of the good stuff they do comes from set pieces or crosses. Without motivation, this team tends to just fall apart – and that’s what I expect here.
Karlsruher SC’s dour run cannot last forever, and this is as easy an opponent as they’ll face for the rest of the season. I watched them host Wurzburger Kickers last time out and they did look a bit shattered, especially when it came to defending. Big striker Hofmann has been struggling too, and he’s a huge part of what they do. Again, it’s simply the curse of an over-achieving team with little depth, I’m afraid. It’s been nice to see them do as well as they have this season, Karlsruher SC, but this ‘fading out’ of theirs was inevitable.
However, everything positive that this team does comes from their work-rate. Therefore, at the heart of things, they’re still in a good position to win games like this, particularly against a team that is in no condition to go toe-to-toe with them for ninety minutes. I suspect Karlsruher SC will squander more opportunities along the way than I’d like them to, and it may end up requiring a moment of magic from Kyoung-rok, Gondorf, Goller, or Wanitzek, but they should be able to battle their way past Aue today. They’ve got a more authentic goal threat, and more consistency. At home, I can’t see Karlsruher SC fucking this one up.
For me, it’s a home win at 4/5.
Verdict: Karlsruher SC to win at 4/5.
KO: (UK time)
I can see why people are tempted to back Bochum here. The odds are nice, they’re the better team, and they’re pushing for promotion – but it’s not for me. They’ve dipped too much lately, the visitors, and some of my trust for them has gone. The Bundesliga 2 is a very long campaign, and they’re rather understandably showing signs of weariness, having operated at a consistently higher level moreso than any other team in this division.
What I like about the dynamic of this fixture is that we should see two good teams let their hair down somewhat. I’m aware that the season isn’t officially over for either of them – but it is, really. Nobody is going to push Bochum out of the promotion zone, and I’m sure they’ll keep trying to win until they get it, which is more a matter of time than anything else. Darmstadt 98 have done enough to avoid relegation, which although is nice, is also sad because they had such a strong squad this season that they should have been pushing for promotion themselves right now rather than celebrating the avoidance of a battle that they should have become embroiled in.
There’s not as much between these two teams as the bookies would like for you all to believe. Yes, Bochum are more consistent, and I believe that they have a greater scope to deal with absentees too. However, these two outfits are both good, they both like to attack, and with nothing really left to fear for either team, I can’t help but feel that we’ll see a more typical German Bundesliga 2 game here in the sense that it should be open and laden with chances. Whether the two teams in question convert those chances or not is another matter, but they’re both capable.
I watched Darmstadt 98’s trip to Wurzburger Kickers last time out. They played the game well, looking free from pressure, and it made them absolutely lethal in front of goal. They should have scored more than they did, really, especially when their hosts started to push out against them. I know they weren’t exactly up against an amazing team but it was a good display, and it pleased me to see them getting back to their best now that they’re able to play without pressure. This Darmstadt 98 side was assembled to attack, after all, unlike previous versions of it.
Bochum are only seven points from it being mathematically guaranteed and if they don’t get that from their remaining games, then some sort of witchcraft must have been involved. Their natural style is to play on the front foot, and that’s what they’re going to do tonight, which should really result in the game ending in their favour – but I refuse to underestimate a good Darmstadt 98 side. You have to appreciate just how good Bohcum are at scoring goals, though. Their best forward has bagged just once this season, and their new striker has only scored twice. It’s Zulj and Zoller that have stepped up in that department, and ex-Bayern Munich academy graduate Pantovic has finally stepped up rather than getting injured all of the time. It’s a great team effort at Bochum; that’s what has gotten them promoted this season, not any superstars in their midst. The Bundesliga itself is going to be tough for them but for now, they’re the kings of the division, and I expect them to play like it here.
In my opinion, this game will be played without pressure and without fear, even moreso than usual. If that indeed proves to be the case, then backing over 3 goals at 49/50 is common sense.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 49/50.
All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.
Australian A-League:
Western United – Hamill and Uskok are absent.
Newcastle Jets – Najjarine, Abimanyu, Yengi, and Kantarovski are absent. Boogaard, Koutroumbis, Hoffman return.
Danish Superligaen:
FC Nordsjaelland – Amon and Diomande are absent. Djourou and Hansen are doubts.
FC Midtjylland – Andersen and Ailton are absnet.
English Premier League:
Leicester City – Barnes and Justin are absent.
Crystal Palace – McArthur, Ferguson, and WIckham are absent. Clyne, Sakho, and Tomkins are doubts.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Be’er Sheva – A. Biton and Keltins are absent.
Maccabi Haifa – Rukavytsya is a doubt. Planic returns.
Italian Serie A:
Torino – No absentees.
SSC Napoli – Ospina, Manolas, and Ghoulam are absent.
SS Lazio – Felipe is absent. Escalante and Caicedo are doubts.
AC Milan – Hernandez and Ibrahimovic are doubts.
Portuguese Liga 1:
Belenenses – Kau is absent.
Gil Vicente – No absentees.
SL Benfica – Araujo and Almeida are absent.
Santa Clara – Romao is absent.
CD Nacional de Madeira – Borges and Witi are absent.
Vitoria Guimaraes – Amoah is absent. Quaresma is a doubt.
Famalicao – No absentees.
Tondela – No absentees.
Moreirense – Amador, Lacerda, Mane, Pedro, and Pires are absent.
FC Porto – Marcano and Mbaye are absent. Sanusi is a doubt.
Romanian Liga 1:
Voluntari – Tavares is absent.
Viitorul Constanta – Casap and Ganea are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Eibar – Bigas, Correa, Exposito, and Muto are absent.
Real Sociedad – Merquelanz, Moya, Le Normand, Illarramendi, Fernandez, Munoz, Sangalli, Silva, and Zubeldia are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Elfsborg Boras – Frick and Bernhardsson are absent.
Mjallby Solvesborg – Johansson is absent.
IFK Goteborg – J. Johansson, C. Johansson, and Karlsson-Lagemyr are absent.
Degerfors – No absentees.
The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.
Australian A-League:
Western United vs Newcastle Jets (5) 2-2
Bulgarian A PFG:
CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv (4) 1-1
Botev Plovdiv vs Ludogorets Razgrad (5) 1-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Varazdin vs Istra 1961 (5) 1-2
Danish Superligaen:
FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland (6) 0-1
English Premier League:
Leicester City vs Crystal Palace (6) 1-0
German Bundesliga 2:
Karlsruher SC vs Erzgebirge Aue (6) 2-1
Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Bochum (6) 1-2
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Be’er Sheva vs Maccabi Haifa (5) 1-2
Italian Serie A:
Torino vs SSC Napoli (6) 0-1
SS Lazio vs AC Milan (5) 2-2
Portuguese Liga 1:
Belenenses vs Gil Vicente (6) 0-0
SL Benfica vs Santa Clara (7) 2-1
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Vitoria Guimaraes (5) over 2.5 goals
Famalicao vs Tondela (5) 1-1
Moreirense vs FC Porto (6) 1-2
Portuguese Liga 2:
SL Benfica II vs Penafiel (5) 1-1
Romanian Liga 1:
Voluntari vs Viitorul Constanta (5) 0-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Eibar vs Real Sociedad (6) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Elfsborg Boras vs Mjallby Solvesborg (5) 1-1
IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors (6) 1-0
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