TFT Issue 3412!

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Bankers

General Information

We aim to give you the best possible information before each game. However, the moment the game starts, anything can happen, ranging from red cards to snow storms to pitch invasions. We can only prepare you for so much; it's up to you to learn how to develop yourself as to know when to jump ship if things aren't going as they should.

Pay attention to the odds provided for each tip. Be aware that the longer the odds are, the less chance there is of it coming in. Don't lean toward backing the bankers containing teams you've heard of or selections at longer odds because you trust the team more or if you see the pound signs flashing before your eyes. Sometimes bankers won't win, try to use the previews to steer you toward the right selection to make rather than taking the quick/lazy way.

Please understand that every single tip has the capacity to win, push, or lose. We aim to find good value bets (probability vs odds) as our focal area.

Banker

Sydney FC vs Melbourne Victory

KO: (UK time)

Full preview below.

Verdict: Sydney FC to win at 7/25.

Banker

Flamengo vs Union La Calera

KO: (UK time)

The quality gap should be too big here. I appreciate that Flamengo can be a bit lazy at times, and that Chile’s Union La Calera are full of running. However, whether the game is handled professionally or not by the home team, I still expect them to score enough goals to pick up the three points in this one.

Verdict: Flamengo to win at 4/25.

Featured game

Sydney FC vs Melbourne Victory

KO: (UK time)

Big Blue or not, this should be an absolute massacre; a real crucifixion job, and I say that despite knowing that Sydney FC are not the most prolific of teams, and that Victory finally won a match last time out.

See, the thing to keep in mind about the win against Western Sydney is that it could have gone either way. Both teams were as bad as each other; both utterly incapable of controlling a game. Chances came, some were scored (often the harder ones), and Victory won 5-4. On another day, it could have been the opposite way around, or even 0-0. It was just the luck of the draw on that day that both teams displayed a similar level of disinterest in tactics, and the result was apparently an, ‘advert for A-League football’. Well, it was entertaining, I suppose, but moreso by accident than anything.

So, yeah – don’t read much into that win. They may have more confident now, but they’re also up against a team that won’t give them so many opportunities to score goals, if indeed any. Furthermore, the visitors are without even more players today, which is just a killer. I mean, they finally had some kind of defensive solution in place after Ryan and defensive midfielder Broxham returned. However, not long after they allowed talented young left-back Markovic to leave, regular left-back Traore – one of the most consistent players in the division – got sent off for manhandling a referee, presenting Victory with a long-term problem that they have no answer to. That, fused with the continued absence of their best centre-back Shotton, was problematic to begin with.

Now, though? It’s even worse. I may not have liked what I’ve seen from Rojas this season but he’s undeniably their most creative player, and he’s been out for ages. As much disdain as I have for Kruse’s diving, and Brimmer’s zealous challenges, they’ve all put their backs into trying to cope without Rojas. Brimmer has penetrated defences well, and scored some lovely free-kicks. Kruse is always keeping defenders on their toes with his incessant running, closing down, and good movement. McManaman is one of the best dribblers they’ve ever had, and he’s got a brilliant shot from range too, so they’ve sort of learned to cope with Rojas out, as best they can. However, Kruse, Brimmer, and McManaman all join Rojas on the sidelines today meaning that other than impressive youngster Barnett, Victory do not have a midfield today.

That means no service for target man Gestede, and a lot of holes for opponents to exploit. I would assume that Ryan will now partner Ansell in the middle of defence, which means two good secondary centre-backs playing alongside one another – but no ‘alpha’ to control things. I don’t know if they’ll try to slot Broxham in at left-back (not a left-back!) or in front of the back four (makes more sense) but it’s still not ideal. This team is a mess, yet again, and their mental fragility should make them sitting ducks today. If they get out of Sydney without conceding three times here, they should consider the operation a success, especially given their penchant for picking up red cards in big games.

I’m not a huge fan of where Sydney FC are at, as I said in my preview of their match against the Mariners at the weekend. That said, I thought that they could have – and should have – won that game. I mean, all the commentators were raving about Urena’s opener but honestly, what the fuck Redmayne is doing, I don’t know. He’s lay down before the Costa Rican has even had to make up his mind as to what he’s doing with it, making the finish far easier than it should have been. Yet another howler from him, and yet Danny Vukovic is back in Australian and on a free transfer – hmm!

Sydney FC played well in that game though. They competed well with a much fitter team, and again, should have got more from it. It was just one of those days. Personally, I thought it was one of their better displays this season, even though they only ended up drawing. If they play with as much energy and conviction today, they’ll annihilate their bitter rivals – I don’t doubt it. There’s no reason for anyone to doubt it, given the players that are out for the visitors.

Sydney FC recently re-signed star striker Le Fondre, speculating that he ‘may be available for this game’. I laughed when I read that. You can see how long it’s been since they actually signed someone, given their complete unawareness of a little thing called a quarantine period right now. I hope they prove me wrong, and somehow he plays today – the extra firepower would help them for when Bobo is feeling his age. Taylor recently rejoined Wellington Phoenix from an Indian club and he had to quarantine though, so why Le Fondre would be an exception, I don’t know.

Still, Sydney FC have enough to batter Victory here. I’m sick of seeing Baumjohann on the pitch; this fella needs to go now as he doesn’t contribute anything anymore. Ninkovic, Brattan, Caceres, and Barbarouses supporting Bobo, though? I like it, especially with returning full-back Grant and youngster King overlapping as makeshift wingers. As long as Wilkinson isn’t left isolated against Folami or Kamsoba, Sydney FC should be ridiculously comfortable in this game.

Therefore, my main pick here is to back the home team to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap, although I also fancy a nibble at them scoring over 3.5 goals, and for Barbarouses to score at least one against his old club.

Verdict: Sydney FC to beat the -1 5 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Sydney FC to score over 3.5 goals at 9/4.
Barbarouses to score at any time at 10/11.

Additional games

Austria Vienna vs Admira Wacker

KO: (UK time)

I was keen to see how Austria Vienna reacted to the news of their survival last time out, and they were excellent. Everybody looked pleased to be on the pitch; it’s given them a new lease of life. Now they’ve remembered that they’re in a relegation battle, they’ve started winning games again, which is nice. I suspect it’ll continue today against wildcards Admira Wacker too.

It’s nice to see one of Austria’s biggest clubs bailed out by donators too. Being demoted two divisions because of financial problems was always going to be a bad thing for the Bundesliga, even if they don’t really compete for major honours nowadays. The way I see it, Rapid need Austria, and Austria need Rapid – that derby is what keeps Austrian football lively. I know Rapid hate Salzburg but it’s not the same. The history between Rapid and Austria goes back much farther than this more recently intensified rivalry with Salzburg.

It’s been good to see a positive reaction too. They’ve played with great enthusiasm since that news broke, creating lots of chances, and scoring good goals along the way. They’re hungry to survive, to carve out a new future for themselves, and that’s precisely what a relegation battle requires – well, if you’re to emerge safely from it, of course. It goes without saying that Austria Vienna are the best team in the relegation group so winning games should not be all that complicated to them, and that’s finally started to show. As much as I respect how much Admira Wacker have the capacity to upset any Austrian team, such is their nature, I still think that Austria Vienna will continue their winning run here. They were far too strong for Admira Wacker at weekend – and that was away from home! 

Their goals may have now shifted from avoiding the drop to claiming a UEFA Europa League place, and so it should. Now, I doubt it’ll be polished, and I’m damn sure that Admira Wacker will push them hard because that’s what they do, but I can’t overlook odds of 4/5 on the home win here, not when the capital club are playing with a new lease of life as they are.

Verdict: Austria Vienna to win at 4/5.

Nurnberg vs Holstein Kiel 

KO: (UK time)

There has been some Covid-19 in the Holstein Kiel camp, which led to them having a couple of weeks without any matches earlier in April. They came back to an unfortunate defeat, but all is not lost – they just need to beat Nurnberg tonight in order to get their promotion push back on track.

They’ve still got a few players out, the visitors, but none that I’m particularly concerned by the absence of. After all, Kiel’s promotion push stems from their togetherness and work-rate, not any of their individuals carrying them. The way the northerners consistently manage to reinvent themselves never ceases to amaze me too, whether they’re playing as an all out attacking kind of team, or as a more measured, controlling outfit. Kiel simply excel at whatever they put their minds to, and I love it. If any team in the Bundesliga 2 (other than Bochum) deserves to go up, it’s them and Heidenheim for the genuine, authentic nature in which they go about things.

Unfortunately, promotion is not simply handed out based on merit; Kiel need to earn it. That means winning matches like this. Part of me thinks that Nurnberg are a good team to face right now because they’ve managed to somehow survive the relegation battle, which I suppose loosely qualifies as being a more progressive campaign than their last. That – in theory – should make it easier to beat them because they’ve nothing to play for. However, I’m also of the school of thought that Nurnberg play a lot better without pressure, which they simply have no threshold for. In that sense, they might just show up here.

I mean, let’s not forget that Nurnberg – on paper – have a top six team. The fact that they’re mentally fragile is no longer as relevant as it would normally be because they’ve somehow extended their stay in the Bundesliga 2 now. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they’ve started performing better because of that. However, their absentees continue to concern me. Hack may be back, and will presumably make his first start for a while after starting from the bench for their last two matches, and that’s a plus for them because he’s brilliant. However, with most of their forwards still out, including their best one, Schaffler, I’m struggling to take them seriously.

I appreciate Nurnberg are playing quite well right now but they’re up against Kiel here, a team with very legitimate intentions of playing in the division above next season. They’re a passionate, tenacious group, and they’re seldom far away from scoring goals. Perfect? No, absolutely not. They do get a lot right though, the northerners, and they’ve got the right attitudes to both survive and thrive in situations of this nature. At this stage of the season, I tend to find that mental strength matters more than quality – and that’s where Kiel excel.

Therefore, I think Kiel have the edge here. I also think it’s worth noting that Nurnberg are playing game number three in seven days, which they absolutely do not have the squad for, whereas Kiel are considerably fresher thanks to their Covid-19 hiatus. It’ll come back to hurt them in the coming weeks when they have to cram a lot of games into a short space of time, but for now, it’s an advantage to Kiel – yet another!

For me, Kiel should win this game, basically. I just don’t see Nurnberg having enough quality up front to match or outscore their determined visitors, and with no motivation for Nurnberg to do anything here, backing the away win really does appeal to me tonight.

Verdict: Holstein Kiel to win at 13/10.

Boca Juniors vs Santos

KO: (UK time)

I appreciate that games between big Argentinian and big Brazilian clubs tend to be loaded affairs for obvious reasons, and I’d be amazed if this one were any different. Red cards are always a risk at times like these, and I can only hope that it does not upset my pick.

When I can back Boca to win at home against Santos at 4/5 though, I have to do it. Boca being a good team helps, of course. It would be even better if they had fans, although I don’t honestly know the state of things in Argentina at the moment as to whether that’s possible or not. This is a team that tends to do well on their own patch though, and especially in the Copa Libertadores, which they view as a complete priority, year upon year. The Copa Libertadores is what they want the most, and that’s what they’re gunning for once more. With the financial backing and the quality on their books, they should definitely be considered as contenders at the very least.

By contrast, I think Santos will disappoint this year. Frankly, I’m still amazed that they got to the final of the last one. It just goes to show what can happen when a team plays well once in a blue moon, and has a boatload of fortuitous draws along the way. I won’t deny them what they achieved in the semis, but other than that, it was an incredibly fortuitous run, and I only felt it was right that they lost their Sao Paulo derby in the final against a far more deserving Palmeiras. 

For tonight’s trip to Argentina, Santos have lost Pitua, Everson, and now Soteldo, all of which have moved on. Santos can’t keep players nowadays; they’re a selling club that relies extensively on their academy products. The problem is that none of their academy players are all that good – yet. I know folks are raving about Kaio Jorge but honestly, I just don’t see it. Perhaps he’ll be a late bloomer or something, I don’t know, but to me it seems more like desperation that they’re clinging onto the notion of him becoming world-class one day.

No, I’m afraid that Santos are going to be massively over-reliant on forward Marinho, and I’m really not convinced he can have another season like the last. If he could, he’d be playing in Europe by now. He carried Santos last season, and now there’s even less quality in their squad, I just can’t see this story ending well for the Sao Paulo heavyweights. Santos may have a certain amount of prestige in this competition, and hold a lot of weight in South America in general, but I really do think that they’re out of their depth in Buenos Aires tonight.

For me, these two teams are chalk and cheese, so I’m on the home win with a handicap.

Verdict: Boca Juniors to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

UEFA Champions League:

Real Madrid – Lucas Vazquez, Mendy, Ramos, and Valverde are absent. Kroos is a doubt.
Chelsea – Kovacic is absent. 

Australian A-League:

Sydney FC – Zullo, Zuvela, and Le Fondre are absent.
Melbourne Victory – Brimmer, Rojas, McManaman, Kruse, Shotton, and Traore are absent. 

Austrian Bundesliga:

Hartberg – Lema is absent.
SCR Altach – Schreiner is absent. Obasi and Iyobosa Edokpolor are doubts.
Austria Vienna – Grunwald, Palmer-Brown, Schosswendter, and Suttner are doubts.
Admira Wacker – Babuscu, Rath, Kadlec, and Tomic are absent. Sax, Datkovic, and Atanga are doubts.
St. Polten – Asadi and Tursch are absent.
SV Ried – No absentees.

German Bundesliga 2:

Nurnberg – Goden, Klandt, Knothe, Kratschmer, Lukse, Lohkemper, Muhl, Schaffler, and Schleusner are absent.
Holstein Kiel – Gelios, Ignjovski, Kirkeskov, Thesker, and Muhling are absent. 

Italian Serie B:

Pescara – Bocchetti and Memushaj are absent.
Virtus Entella – No absentees.
Empoli – No absentees.
Chievo Verona – Giaccherini and Leverbe are absent.

Portuguese Liga 1:

Farense – No absentees.
Portimonense – Lucas is absent. Godinho is a doubt.

Turkish Super Lig:

Hatayspor – Boyar and Ilgaz are absent. Ornek is a doubt.
Genclerbirligi – Artan, Kizildag, Ayite, Nordfelt, and Yilmaz are absent. Toure is a doubt.

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

UEFA Champions League:

Real Madrid vs Chelsea (6) 1-0

Copa Libertadores:

Flamengo vs Union La Calera (7) 2-0
Liga de Quito vs Velez Sarsfield (6) 1-0
Atletico Mineiro vs America de Cali (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Palmeiras vs Independiente del Valle (7) 1-0
Internacional vs Deportes Tolima (5) 2-1
Boca Juniors vs Santos (6) 2-0, at least one red card in this game

Copa Sudamericana:

Bahia vs Guabira (6) 2-0
Huachipato vs 12 de Octubre (4) 1-1
Arsenal de Sarandi vs Ceara (6) 2-0, at least one red card in this game

Australian A-League:

Sydney FC vs Melbourne Victory (9) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game

Austrian Bundesliga:

Hartberg vs SCR Altach (6) 2-1
Austria Vienna vs Admira Wacker (6) 2-1
St. Polten vs SV Ried (5) 1-1

German Bundesliga 2:

Nurnberg vs Holstein Kiel (6) 1-2

Italian Serie B:

Pescara vs Virtus Entella (6) 2-1
Empoli vs Chievo Verona (5) 1-1

Portuguese Liga 1:

Farense vs Portimonense (5) 2-1

Romanian Liga 1:

Hermannstadt vs Gaz Metan Medias (6) 0-0
Arges vs UTA Arad (5) 2-1

Turkish Super Lig:

Hatayspor vs Genclerbirligi (5) 2-2

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