TFT Issue 3413!

For my money, the overs market is taking too big of a hit here. True enough, you’re never far away from a high-scoring A-League game, but these two teams are very likely to neutralise one another, really.

Now that the dust has settled from the Mariners’ brilliant start, one thing has become abundantly clear, which is that they’re far better against teams that come at them than those that don’t. Brisbane Roar are not that kind of team though. Don’t get me wrong; they love a high press, the visitors, but I would never really describe this team as ‘risk takers’. In other words, if their conventional blood, sweat, and tears approach doesn’t work, then nothing will.

I think that’s even truer now that they’ve cut veteran striker McDonald loose. I don’t know the ins and outs of it, and I appreciate that he’s getting on a bit, but he’s still their best finisher. Without him, there is nobody I’d give the benefit of the doubt to for Roar when through on goal. There are numerous other good qualities for players like Mebrahtu, Wenzel-Halls etc. but consistently finishing well is not one of them. Sure, sometimes they’ll score an amazing goal but in general, they don’t. In fact, I have a theory that Wenzel-Halls’ shooting improves the further from goal he is!

Tactically, Roar are very good though. As a unit, they’re as annoying as hell to break down. To be fair, it has to be that way because on paper, they’d not stand a chance of stopping anyone from beating them. However, because they work so hard on their setup, on winning 50/50s, and pressing hard to keep opponents on the back foot, they’re actually a deceptively good unit. They’re crap when they’re expected to break teams down, no matter how hard they huff and puff – but they love games like the one today whether they’re absolved of pressure, and they can play on the break.

Ordinarily, I’d consider that Roar were priced too long to win this one, to be honest. They’re the equals of the over-achieving Mariners on their day. However, the absence of centre-back Aldred and full-back Brown is too much here; it makes the risk not worth taking, in my opinion. I may not be enamoured by the concept of the Mariners winning, but I recognise that they’ve got an edge in that area because Aldred in particular plays a significant role for the visitors.

Personally speaking, I would not touch the 1×2 market though. The Mariners need space in order to be effective so that their clever forwards can run in behind, or de Silva can make things happen. I doubt they’ll get much of that here though. It was easier against Sydney FC at weekend because they were able to counter, and they had space. Sure, Redmayne was at fault for the opener but it was still the type of game that the Mariners like to play in. I expect a far more closed game here though, and that does nothing for them.

It’s not the personnel that I think the Mariners will struggle to get around here, but moreso the shape and organisation of their opponents. I’ve watched Roar play without Aldred before this season, and they’ve done alright because it’s the collective that is effective, not the individuals. The collective Roar structure should be enough to at least frustrate the Mariners, where the title hopefuls win the game or not. It’s in games like these where the lack of quality in the Mariners squad is more than apparent, basically. 

I can’t fault any of the Mariners players for doing what they do, and I think they’ll be a lot better now that Tongyik is back at the heart of defence. I mean, Rowles has performed above and beyond this season but is an average centre-back at best, and Sydney FC’s second goal at weekend tells you all that you need to know about whether he can be trusted or not. Tongyik is the driving force of this defence, and his return will make them even harder to hurt. I love their energy, their work-rate, and their fitness as a whole, and their two experienced forwards are really awkward to play against this season. This is not the kind of team I expect to hurt Roar properly though.

Therefore, barring an early goal, I believe that backing under 2.5 goals here simply makes more sense.