We aim to give you the best possible information before each game. However, the moment the game starts, anything can happen, ranging from red cards to snow storms to pitch invasions. We can only prepare you for so much; it's up to you to learn how to develop yourself as to know when to jump ship if things aren't going as they should.
Pay attention to the odds provided for each tip. Be aware that the longer the odds are, the less chance there is of it coming in. Don't lean toward backing the bankers containing teams you've heard of or selections at longer odds because you trust the team more or if you see the pound signs flashing before your eyes. Sometimes bankers won't win, try to use the previews to steer you toward the right selection to make rather than taking the quick/lazy way.
Please understand that every single tip has the capacity to win, push, or lose. We aim to find good value bets (probability vs odds) as our focal area.
KO: (UK time)
The ease with which Zalgiris are conceding silly goals this season is annoying me. They’re supposed to be more efficient than this. Still, they’ve got enough firepower to comfortably despatch lowly Dainava today – I’m just not convinced that they’re going to do enough to handicap them as it really does depend on the title hopefuls’ mood.
Verdict: Zalgiris Vilnius to win at 9/50.
KO: (UK time)
The quality gap should be too big here. Flora Tallinn are not playing perfectly at the moment, but they’re scoring enough goals to outscore inferior Kuressaare, home or away.
Verdict: Flora Tallinn to win at 7/100.
KO: (UK time)
The expectation in Iceland this season is that Valur Rekyjavik are set for yet another strong campaign. It’s weird how quickly things change there, but also pleasing in a way. Anyway, Valur have assembled a strong squad, and they’re hosting an IA team that hasn’t been good since I managed them on Sensible World Of Soccer back in the 90’s! In other word, season opener or not, I expect a home win.
Verdict: Valur Reykjavik to win at 17/100.
KO: (UK time)
A change of manager has perked Famalicao up, and given them a good shot at beating the drop. I think they’ll give Porto a good game tonight. However, the reality is that Porto should be too good for them tonight. The home team still need the points, and they’re grinding out wins rather well at the moment. I can’t see beyond the hosts leaving with three points here – but no handicaps for me.
Verdict: FC Porto to win at 3/10.
KO: (UK time)
This is the easiest preview I’ll have to write today because the tip entirely stems from Paksi SE being completely and utterly insane. All they do is attack teams, and that results in copious amounts of goals being scored and conceded. They hammered Budafoki MTE 9-2 last time out, and seem hellbent on finishing the campaign having scored more goals than the newly-crowned champions Ferencvaros.
The problem Paksi SE will have tonight is that Puskas FC are considerably better than they are. The home team want to be in Europe next season, and I would not bet against it, based on their displays in 2021. It’s a braver person than I am that takes them to beat Puskas FC though. The visitors have lost a couple of games in a row but they’ve not got much motivation at the moment now that the league title race is over, and European football is already guaranteed. They were beaten by relegation-threatened Diosgyori VTK at the weekend, and hammered 4-1 at home by Zalaegerszegi TE, so it really is a good time for Paksi SE to face them.
Still, the reality is that Puskas FC could hammer them; they’re definitely good enough. That, fused with Paksi SE’s insanity, makes me want to avoid the 1×2 market. However, backing over 3 goals at 87/100 just makes a boatload of sense to me.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 87/100.
KO: (UK time)
This is the time of the season when Tondela are at their absolute best, year upon year. I know that Benfica are better than they are, but by no means are the visitors perfect – and lately they’ve been dishing out reminders as to how bad they are at defending. That makes me think we’re in for an interesting game in Portugal tonight.
Mentally, Tondela are very good, at least at the business end of a campaign. They may not fear relegation as much as normal (although they’re bizarrely not out of it, despite being ninth!), but may actually fancy a shot at getting into Europe next season. That’s how tight things are in Portugal right now. Realistically, they shouldn’t stand a chance of getting into Europe, not with Vitoria Guimaraes and Moreirense in competition, but neither of them are playing well right now so why not? Tondela excel at this time of year, and I would not bet against them here.
The style of this game should suit Tondela as Benfica need to win, and Tondela love to play on the break. Nothing but a win will do for Benfica, who are pursuing Porto in a bid for a UEFA Champions League place. Porto slipped up last time out, drawing 1-1 at Moreirense – and Benfica need to pile the pressure on by winning here. Tondela love to play as underdogs, and they’ve got plenty of fast forwards with which to hurt Benfica. I think they’ll give them a good game here, which is standard for home games against Benfica, even though the visitors do tend to scrounge a win in the end.
It requires balls to win a game like this though, and Benfica only have them sometimes. I like that Jesus is back in charge because they always look to have more faith when he’s there than not, which means they can bounce back from whatever defensive disaster they bring upon themselves. They’re a top-heavy team though, Benfica, and that’s especially apparent in matches like tonight’s. They’ve got enough about them to win it but I think they’ll be put through the wringer if they’re to manage it.
Benfica have only kept a clean sheet on one out of their last three visits to face Tondela, and have seldom looked more likely to concede than they do right now, given the position of both teams. Therefore, I’m going to back both teams to score at 19/20.
Verdict: Both teams to score at 19/20.
All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United – Delianov, Konstandopoulos, Lopez, and Jakobsen are absent. Mohamed Toure returns.
Western United – Risdon, Duzell, and Markovic are absent. Uskok, Vujica, and Hamill return.
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Antwerp – Coopman, Gelin, and Haroun are absent.
Racing Genk – Heynen is absent. Wouters is a doubt.
Croatian Prva Liga:
Lokomotiva Zagreb – Musa, Aliyu, Djira, Mersinaj, and Tuci are absent.
Sibenik – Mesa, Prince, Bilic, Bulat, Pandza, and Mocinic are absent. Labrovic is a doubt.
Danish Superligaen:
AC Horsens – Thorsen and Pohl are absent.
Vejle – Schoop, Greve, Molgard, and Faghir are absent.
Aalborg BK – Hiljemark is absent.
Lyngby – Sorensen, Gytkjaer, and Romer are absent.
English Premier League:
Southampton – Ings, Bertrand, Obfami, Romeu, and Smallbone are absent.
Leicester City – Barnes, Justin, and Morgan are absent.
French Ligue 1:
Olympique de Marseille – Amavi and Sakai are absent.
Racing Club Strasbourg – Mothiba, Kone, Waris, Saadi, and Thomasson are absent.
German DFB Pokal:
Werder Bremen – Badjie, Plogmann, Woltemade, and Schonfelder are absent. Veljkovic and Bittencourt are doubts.
RB Leipzig – Hartmann, Kluivert, Novoa, and Szoboszlai are absent. Laimer, Klostermann, Poulsen, and Sabitzer are doubts.
Portuguese Liga 1:
Pacos de Ferreira – No absentees.
Belenenses – Kau is absent.
Vitoria Guimaraes – Amoah is absent.
Moreirense – Mane, Lacerda, Amador, and Pedro are absent. Pires is a doubt.
Tondela – No absentees.
SL Benfica – Araujo and Almeida are absent.
FC Porto – Marcano, Mbaye are absent. Mbemba and Corona are doubts.
Famalicao – Vinagre is a doubt.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Celta de Vigo – Alvarez, Blanco, Mallo, and Mor are absent.
Levante – Campana, Cardenas, Miramon, Radoja, and Vukcevic are absent. Gomez is a doubt.
Swiss Challenge League:
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – Albizua, Laugeois, Perrier, Dalvand, and da Silva are absent.
SC Kriens – Alessandrini is absent.
FC Thun – Breitenmoser, Rudlin, Hasler, Fatkic, and Castroman are absent. Schmidt is a doubt.
Chiasso – Sifneos, Delli Carri, Antoniazzi, Dixon, Morganella are absent.
Aarau – Verboom, Thaler, Schindelholz, Qollaku, and Peralta are absent.
Grasshopper Zurich – Toti, Kalem, Nadjack, and Morandi are absent. Bonatini is a doubt.
Winterthur – Isik, Alves, Baak, Bullet, Baak, Costinha, Mahamid, Muci, Roth, Schupbach, Spiegel, Tolino, Pauli, and Volkart are absent. Goncalves is a doubt.
Neuchatel Xamax – Rodriguez, Pasche, Mveng, and Koura are absent. Gomes is a doubt.
The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United vs Western United (6) 2-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Antwerp vs Racing Genk (5) 2-2
Croatian Prva Liga:
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Sibenik (5) 1-1
Danish Superligaen:
AC Horsens vs Vejle (6) 0-1
Aalborg BK vs Lyngby (5) 2-2
English Premier League:
Southampton vs Leicester City (5) 1-2
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Vaprus Parnu vs Trans Narva (6) 0-1
Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn (7) 0-2
French Ligue 1:
Olympique de Marseille vs Racing Club Strasbourg (5) 1-0
German DFB Pokal:
Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig (6) 0-1
Hungarian Liga 1:
Paksi SE vs Puskas FC (5) 2-2
Icelandic Pepsideild:
Valur Reykjavik vs IA (7) 2-0
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Hegelmann Litauen vs Suduva Marijampole (6) 1-2
Dainava vs Zalgiris Vilnius (7) 1-2
Portuguese Liga 1:
Pacos de Ferreira vs Belenenses (4) 2-2
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense (5) over 2.5 goals
Tondela vs SL Benfica (5) 1-1
FC Porto vs Famalicao (7) over 2.5 goals
Romanian Liga 1:
Gaz Metan Medias vs Arges (5) 1-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Celta de Vigo vs Levante (5) 1-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs SC Kriens (5) 0-0
FC Thun vs Chiasso (7) 2-1
Aarau vs Grasshopper Zurich (5) 1-1
Winterthur vs Neuchatel Xamax (5) 2-1
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