TFT Issue 3420!

The last round of A-League fixtures showed how tired these teams are becoming, and who can be surprised? They’ve been asked to play a lot more regularly than usual, and it’s taking its toll. I thought pretty much all of the teams were bad in that round. Even City, despite their comprehensive win over the Jets, were fairly average. 

My tip today is based on the same theory as their win against the Jets, though. Essentially, City playing well or not should not really be a factor because they’re the best team in Australia right now, and are grinding better than the other teams. Furthermore, they’re up against a clueless Glory team that seldom look like they know how to string a few passes together in the final third, let alone make anything happen. Glory’s squad is far more capable than that of the Jets but for some reason, Garcia just can’t get them to work together, and that’s despite a really promising start to the season all of those months ago.

During the last game, some footage from a Glory fan went viral as he bellowed out, “Hey, Bruno (Fornaroli)! Here’s an idea – why don’t you get the ball, and do something?”. The general feeling place was correct; Glory don’t do anything in the final third. However, it’s not Fornaroli that has to do it; he’s the goal-scorer. The chances need to come from the creators; that’s where it’s breaking down. I feel a bit sorry for Fornaroli, to be honest – it’s his best campaign in years, and he’s done it without anywhere near as much support as he should have had. That’s just the way things are in Perth right now.

Few teams have depressed me more in recent weeks than Glory, at least not when it comes to watching them. Everything about them feels very sluggish and predictable. Even bringing in Geria hasn’t livened things up, and nor has the return of Ikonomidis. I hate to be one of those guys that points at the manager when things go wrong but I’m not really seeing an alternative here. Glory are not only predictable, but this is supposed to be an attacking team now. They brought Garcia in (well, promoted him) to make the team more entertaining than Popovic did, who is known for his defensive approach. Despite that, and despite a promising start to the season, Garcia is getting about 40% from the players that Popovic got 80-90% from. Something is amiss in Perth, and until it’s sorted, I can’t take them seriously.

I know they don’t defend well; it’s not a focal point for them. They’ve had injury problems at the back this season, it’s true, and Langkamp is out again here, but the main problem is the style. They don’t have Juande helping Kilkenny screen the back four now, which makes them more vulnerable. They don’t have a steady defensive setup, and honestly, I don’t believe that Garcia knows who his number one goalkeeper is yet either. I can live with Glory being suspect at the back, though – as long as their attack plays to its potential because that’s what can carry them through such times. 

The reality is that their attack is doing nothing though. Fornaroli is not getting any service whatsoever, and let’s face it – crosses into the box aren’t going to do him any good, are they? The only one making things happen is Castro, and sticking two men on him is generally enough nowadays because nobody moves enough for him anyway. There’s no link-up play because no-one is really on his level. Then you’ve got two wing-backs that look afraid to take men on, or to be bold. Geria will run in behind, and Ota is quite cute on the ball, but neither are bold and adventurous like Franjic and Davidson used to be. Again, it just feels very flat and predictable – that’s the bottom line here.

The City team of four weeks ago would have ripped Glory apart here – and they might still. It’s just that in their past two games, they’ve looked quite leggy. They’re not immune to fatigue, of course, and it’s showing. I don’t doubt them winning this one because of how ruthless they are in front of goal, and the fact that they still control games really well whether they win them or not. This should still be a walk in the park for the title hopefuls, in other words – I’m just not convinced they’ll be as fluid here as they have been over the past few months.

Helpfully, the dismal league placing of Glory means that winning all of their remaining games is the only thing they can realistically push for to give themselves a very slender chance of making the top six. It’s not going to happen, but it does mean that they’ve got to try and win games like these, which again, should make City’s task all the easier. There’s not a chance in hell that Glory will be able to deal with City’s pace on the break, should they indeed be bold enough to push out properly.

Even if Glory don’t push out, City should still wear them down. Again, Glory don’t have a good enough defensive setup to contain MacLaren, Noone, Luna, and Metcalfe, not to mention the spritely youngsters like Tilio and Colakovski. City move the ball too quickly and too cleverly for Glory to handle so even if the visitors are quite tired today, I still expect them to bag a goal or two. They’re simply in a far better place than their hosts right now; that’s the best way I can think of putting it, sorry.

For me, backing City to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 23/20 is a good pick.