TFT Issue 3422!

KTP vs FC Honka Espoo

KO: 16:30 (UK time)

Backing Honka again today isn’t something I’d have done – if they were facing any other Veikkausliiga team than KTP, who simply don’t look capable of playing at this level.

The 0-2 defeat against IFK Mariehamn last weekend was frustrating on a number of levels. The islanders scored two very opportunistic goals with Olawale capitalising upon uncertainty between defender and goalkeeper from a long goal kick forward, scoring with an unusual level of composure for him, and then they bagged a second from the spot. Don’t get me wrong; I don’t think that IFK Mariehamn played badly, and nor did they deserve to lose. Let’s just say that the result flattered them though.

I thought Honka made them look better than they were in that game by allowing cheap turnovers far too often. Their only other real problem with linking up properly in the final third. There was no shortage of good well-timed runs, or attacking intent, but it just never worked out for them in front of goal. That kind of thing can happen in a season opener though. I also felt like they missed Voutilainen in that match, hence the abundant turnovers.

It cannot be doubted that Honka are one of Finland’s best four teams though. They’ve only made a handful of pre-season changes so I am expecting far more from them today than we saw against IFK Mariehamn. Will we get it? Time will tell. I didn’t see anything last week that bothered me too much though, and only games will help them get better at making the most of their opportunities. I think this is a really good fixture for them; a real opportunity to right last week’s wrongs, and as you can see from my tip, I believe in them.

KTP scored a lucky draw with SJK last time out, nicking a goal against the run of play and then hanging on against a rusty attack. I can’t fault them for their pluck, but I can fault them for the squad they’ve now got to keep them in the Veikkausliiga. Being promoted from the Ykkonen with a below par squad was only to be expected, as was losing some of their best players, I suppose. That’s just how things go in Finland nowadays, especially with the Veikkausliiga getting more and more competitive.

However, KTP haven’t done remotely enough to keep them in the division this season. They looked horribly out of their depth in the Suomen Cup, looking dreadful at defending against pace and direct passes. It’s going to take more than a lucky draw in Seinajoki to convince me that they can get a positive result against FC Honka Espoo today too. They may, I suppose – football can be a very strange mistress at times. It makes no senses to believe it, though, especially not as KTP’s biggest pre-season signing was to bring in a striker that has failed at this level before.

There’s a chance that KTP’s fight may make this game closer than it should be, but I still don’t see beyond an away win. Honka are not likely to be quite as charitable as SJK were last weekend. They control games really well, and haven’t made too many pre-season changes. They’re still just as dominant and patient as ever, and I can’t see KTP having anywhere near enough composure and quality to contain them.

Therefore, I’m going to give FC Honka Espoo another crack of the whip today.

Verdict: FC Honka Espoo to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.

SJK vs HIFK 

KO: 16:30 (UK time)

I was disappointed to see SJK fail to beat KPV last time out. The least I saw that one being was a home win, but it ended in a draw. A combination of KPV being desperate not to lose their opening game of what is sure to be a very long campaign fused with a touch of poro defending and rusty attacking from SJK was the recipe for the day.

The more time that elapses though, the better SJK will get. Much like when they hosted KPV, they’ve got yet another favourable fixture today. They’re up against a seriously unsettled HIFK side that is struggling to come to terms with all of their pre-season changes. SJK made few, by comparison, but all those made were positive. Subsequently, I’m inclined to give SJK the benefit of the doubt once more today, despite their disappointing opener.

SJK have the better team here; I have no doubts about that. They’ve got some seriously good attacking options now, plenty of scope to dictate the tempo, and more aggression/passion than they’ve had in years. I really do think that Honkavaara has done a great job in Seinajoki. They may end up sacking him because that’s the SJK way, but for me, he’s done the most since Valakari was there. SJK are now quite good to watch again, and usually rather effective too. This is not a team that should struggle to beat HIFK at home today.

HIFK made far too many pre-season changes, and it showed for a long time in the Suomen Cup. It didn’t show so much against Haka Valkeakoski last time out because they, too, were getting used to changes and thus that outcome was a coin toss. I think HIFK should be concerned at this moment in time though. I’ve watched Ykkonen outfit RoPS (mostly comprised of kids because of financial problems) hold them at arm’s length easy enough, and not every opponent will be like Haka Valkeakoski. 

Most of their attackers have now left, and although the core of their midfield – Mattila/Yaghoubi – has remained, it’ll be some time before I start to fear this team. I think that their new manager has got them moving the ball too slowly, and  I just don’t see enough of a goal threat in the capital club’s squad either. HIFK will always have the capacity to surprise, particularly on their own patch, but this is not a good HIFK team, at least not for the present. I’ll sit on the fence as to how well they’ll do in the months to come because although I think that they’ve made too many signings, I also think that they’ve brought in some good players.

I don’t envision this being a great game to watch, and nor one with lots of chances. However, it’s one I expect SJK to do enough to win.

Verdict: SJK to win at evens.

Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

It was nice to see Holstein Kiel getting back to their best mid-week against SV Sandhausen. It was a far harder game than it looked, and I thought they approached it seriously well. The second goal – Serra’s lob – was a thing of pure beauty too. That goal alone indicated that the confidence is beginning to return at the northern club, and maybe promotion is still on the cards for them after all.

They’re going to have to win tonight if that’s truly the case though. St. Pauli have emerged as seriously late contenders for promotion, and they’re playing better football than any other Bundesliga 2 team right now. In other words, I would not bet against it! I do think it’s fair to say that only a win will suffice for these two lethal attacking teams though, which should make the match in Kiel decidedly entertaining here.

One element I am curious about here is whether the German media will class this match as a derby or not. See, I debate it when they try to portray Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel as the ‘northern derby’ but this is the exact same situation tonight. It could add a bit of extra spice to this fixture, I suppose, but these two teams tend to lack in that area anyway. Both are highly passionate, driven teams without being known for losing their heads. I suppose van den Bergh of Holstein Kiel has his rash moments, but in general neither is a particularly dirty team.

In a way, it’s a shame that this game is not being played under what I’d classify as ‘fair conditions’. What I mean by that is that Holstein Kiel are being forced to play every three days after their long Covid-19 break, and it’s breaking their backs. They really don’t have the depth for a run like this. I’ve seen plenty of fatigue from this team lately, even if they did play well against SV Sandhausen, and now they’ve got to face a ridiculously energetic and wholly challenging opponent. How they’re supposed to plan to win this, I don’t know.

That’s not to say that Holstein Kiel cannot win this game, of course. It’s a difficult game for both teams, and that means anything can happen. I think it would be a truly spectacular match to watch if Holstein Kiel were fitter than they are right now. As so much has been demanded of them over the past week or two though, I can’t help but feel that St. Pauli have an almost unfair advantage here. They’re a highly energetic team anyway; dealing with them has been a nightmare in 2021. Doing so with a tired squad is asking a lot though.

I still respect Holstein Kiel though. Again, this will not be an easy match for St. Pauli. I do think that the visitors will edge it, however. They’ve played with more consistency in this calendar year, and their attacking power since Burgstaller’s return from injury and the loan signing of Marmoush has been phenomenal. They’ve almost been unplayable, St. Pauli, and now they’re in the wonderful position of unexpectedly pushing for promotion (when relegation was the fear earlier in the season!) without any pressure whatsoever.

Furthermore, St. Pauli have additional motivation in the sense that they just want to finish above local rivals Hamburger SV tl really rub it in their faces. If that means being promoted ahead of them along the way, then I’m sure they’d find that most agreeable! With all of the motivation and momentum you could ask for without any of the nerves, I’m really struggling to find a reason to doubt the visitors in this tough match. They look better equipped to score goals tonight, and they really have chanced upon a most opportune moment to face Holstein Kiel away from home.

For me, backing the visitors with draw no bet is a logical value pick here, especially as it’s win or bust for them in the promotion push!

Verdict: St. Pauli to win with draw no bet at evens.

Chaisso vs Winterthur 

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

Backing Chiasso without draw no bet cover is risky, folks. I’m sure by now you’ve seen how many times I’ve slated this team – and with good reason, too! Picture a cat that has already used all of its nine lives, and boom – that’s Chiasso in a nutshell. Quite how they’re still in the Challenge League is absolutely beyond me because they’re a group of penniless part-timers playing in a professional division. It really is miraculous that they’;ve survived as long as they have.

There were many that suggested Chiasso would go down this season, and I was one of them. However, the sheer spirit in this squad never ceases to amaze me. It’s impossible to build any kind of squad as they’re forced to sell any half-decent footballer that they accidentally unearth, which somehow makes the team spirit they create even more impressive. This team simply does not know when it is beaten. They play like a feisty Italian lower league team more than anything else, and some of the Swiss teams – especially Grasshopper Zurich, curiously enough – find it remarkably hard to deal with.

It goes without saying that Chiasso do not have much by way of quality. Bnou Marzouk may have remembered where the goal is in 2021, and Bahloul should definitely be playing for a better team than this. Other than that though, this is a group of randomers that were thrown together to be a tenacious, tactically astute crazy gang – and you know something? They’ve really won me over in 2021, and not just because of the way they’ve consistently outplayed Grasshopper Zurich each time they’ve met one another this season.

Chiasso fear nothing. They will run themselves into the ground, and are happy to die for the cause if required. You can’t buy stuff like that. That’s why I’m so disgusted when I see such limp, ineffectual, couldn’t-care-less displays from clubs like FC Sion in the Super League because if they applied themselves like Chiasso, they’d never be in a relegation battle. They may not have much quality, Chiasso, but they’re the perfect team to back in high pressure situations because of how mentally tough and resilient they are.

I think Chiasso can cause Winterthur a lot of problems tonight, basically. Again, backing the home team with draw no bet cover is risky because they don’t tend to convert chances well enough. It’s a risk I am prepared to take though. That’s partially because of how much they’ve convinced me in 2021, and partially because Winterthur’s season is basically over with nothing left to gain or lose. The signs were there a few weeks back of that, actually, especially when they benched Calla and started fielding more kids than usual.

Don’t get me wrong now; Winterthur are the better team here. If they were motivated, and they had a fit starting eleven, I’d consider backing them to win. However, at this moment in time, the bookies are 100% right to make Chiasso favourites here. They need the points in their battle against the drop, and Winterthur’s frankly disinterested displays (which have been surprisingly numerous in recent weeks) makes me believe that backing Chiasso tonight should be the right port of call, hence my tip.

Verdict: Chiasso to win at 6/5.