TFT Issue 3426!

FC Lahti vs KuPS 

KO: 16:30 (UK time)

I won’t say I was surprised to see FC Lahti beat Inter Turku last week because nothing about a Zeneli team surprises me anymore. Besides, this is a good team. Arguably lacking in consistency, yes, but one that should not be doubted if they get their act together.

The odds are dropping on the home team today too. I have to admit that they do look mighty tempting as underdogs, especially against a team that was dragged through 120 minutes of Suomen Cup madness at weekend as they went on to lift the trophy via penalties. In theory, this is an optimal time to face KuPS, and FC Lahti do have a good squad, as I said above. It’ll be interesting to see what goes down.

Personally, I think FC Lahti will struggle in this game, predominantly because of how settled and consistent KuPS are. I appreciate the intent they’ve made to solve their striker situation, for example, but the brutal reality is that FC Lahti do not have a forward that will guarantee them double figures this season. It’s been a sore spot for them for a while now, to be honest, and it’s not as if they’re not trying to solve it. They’ve attempted numerous things, really, but each one has failed, the most bizarre of which was when they picked ex-TPS forward Espinosa up for free pre-season, and then cut him loose before the Veikkausliiga even started.

Perhaps this year will be FC Lahti’s year for solving their striker situation, but only time will reveal that particular nugget of information. Luckily for them, they’ve got a marvellous midfield that Assehnoun is somehow still part of, who is far too good for this level, as he demonstrated on many occasions last season. Now Klinga and Virta – the orchestrators – have been joined by rapid winger Hertsi and classy Spanish playmaker Hervas, so FC Lahti really do have a rather complete midfield – Eninful will sit in front of the back four, as ever. I’m content with that as long as he doesn’t go into his own box – that’s when he scares me.

The FC Lahti defence is really good too; criminally underrated, in my opinion. Arkivuo, Lahti, Coubronne, and now Penninkangas is back to complete the foursome? All that in front of experienced Spanish shot stopper Reguero should really lead FC Lahti to far more clean sheets than they typically get. Again, this is a very good team – but only on paper. Making it happen on the pitch is something that is still far too random, I’m afraid, and that plays a sizable role in me trusting the visitors today.

KuPS are beasts; there’s no other way to put it. I could not call this team ‘defensive’, but the brutal reality is that, by Finnish standards, they’re awesome at it. When you’ve got so many fit, hard-working players, getting around them is seriously tough. I mean, I really can’t think of a better defensive midfielder at this level than Adjei-Boateng, for example. The mere fact that he was on the pitch on Saturday ensured that, even with ten men, KuPS were more than comfortable in swatting HJK away, and countering them. Getting around a team like this is so, so hard. Not impossible, obviously, but not something to be taken lightly. They’ve now nullified arguably the most potent attack in Finland twice in a row, and that should sound the alarm bells ringing for the rest of the Veikkausliiga, even if they’re yet to score themselves.

You see, KuPS are never going to be far away from goals. They’ve had to make a few changes pre-season but none that worry me. Nissila is still there, as is star Nigerian winger Sale. They’ve signed two cracking Finnish youngsters in winger Haarala and playmaker Popovits too, and Latvia’s Ikaunieks has joined to help bridge the gap between midfield and attack too. They’ve managed to acquire Swedish target man Hellqvist from his South Korean adventure, and have retained the services of live wire Udoh whilst also recently re-signing Brazilian forward Rangel, which means that they have a bit of everything in attack too. 

On top of the above, they’ve now got Valakari as their manager. He did seriously well in this division with SJK years ago, and did well at Tromso too, not that much can truly be achieved there. He’s a very good manager, and a natural winner, as you saw from how cool, calm, and collected KuPS were with their spot-kicks on Saturday. Just imagine how good they’ll be when they almost inevitably re-sign Niskanen, Pennanen, and Karjalainen in the forthcoming twelve months because it’ll happen, I promise! 

They’ve got a seriously well-balanced, methodical, fit team KuPS. Their defence is powerful and organised. Their midfield is lively and dangerous. Their forwards aren’t as clinical as I’d like – other than Rangel – but are still dangerous. Such strong balance, fitness, and experience makes me believe that they’ll push HJK all the way in the Veikkausliiga title race, and I would not bet against KuPS winning it either, given HJK’s penchant for taking their foot off the gas. Even after a draining game on Saturday, I still think that a team like KuPS has enough in the tank to beat a rather random FC Lahti side.

For me, the away win is worth the gamble today – emphasis on ‘gamble’ though, folks; there’s nothing certain about this fixture!

Verdict: KuPS to win at 23/20.

Vaduz vs Young Boys Bern 

KO: 17:15 (UK time)

I’ve never quited managed to fathom why, but Young Boys Bern often disappoint in Liechtenstein. I’ve been there on several occasions; there’s no geographical challenges to consider when facing Vaduz at the Rheinpark Stadion, but Young Boys Bern simply never perform to their maximum in this fixture. Considering that the Super League title race was pretty much over before it even began, and now is officially over, I think it’s safe to say that Young Boys Bern might not be too interested by this fixture.

The one they were interested in was the derby with FC Basel at the weekend, which they won. Prior to that, they did what they always do by struggling to deal with Servette in a dead rubber affair, so again, I have to believe that Young Boys Bern will keep true to form here. They’ve started releasing a few players for overdue medical operations lately because their season is effectively over, and it’s entirely plausible that Seoane will shuffle his pack accordingly tonight too.

I’m still not tempted to oppose the newly-crowned champions, mind you. They don’t have as good a squad as they did under Hutter, but they still have 1.5 squads, and that’s better than any other Swiss team. In other words, they can cope with certain rotation patterns. As ever, my main concern on that front is their capacity to score goals because since they let Hoarau join FC Sion, it’s only been Nsame. I’ve said all along that French (or is he now American?) forward Siebatcheu is horribly inconsistent, and so it’s proven again. He had a marvellous start to 2021, and yet has disappeared over the past month or so, bagging just once during that period. They’re hoping that youngster Mambimbi will be the solution but I don’t see it. 

They’re still going to be able to control this game though, Young Boys Bern, and that makes opposing them very tricky. I won’t deny that Vaduz have the better motivation right now, given that their Super League place has been called into question, but beating Young Boys Bern is hard. Seoane is not a particularly good manager, and I have certainly seen better Young Boys Bern sides than this one, but they’re capable of turning it on for ten minutes – and that’s enough to decide most Super League games in their favour, as was evident when they hosted FC Sion recently.

My interpretation of where Vaduz are currently at makes me think that they’ll play it safe tonight. A win would be lovely, sure, but it’s far more important for them to not lose. I know it looks like Sion are piling on the pressure, especially after a strong win at St. Gallen last time out, but they really are riding their luck. Only FC Sion could still be under the cosh against ten men, and that’s precisely what happened at the weekend! I really don’t think they’ve got enough about them to beat the drop, and thus I don’t believe Vaduz should be all that worried – yet.

For my money, it’s far more important that they draw tonight, and put their efforts into beating Servette and FC Zurich in their remaining Super League fixtures. I refuse to accept that Sion are going to pick up nine points from their remaining three matches so the above would be enough to keep Vaduz up – or at least in charge of their own destiny via the play-off. In other words, I don’t think that throwing caution to the wind tonight is a prudent or even necessary approach at this stage. It does not pay to fall behind against Young Boys Bern, arguably the best counter-attacking team in the country.

Vaduz have defended well lately as the shit has hit the fan, and they’re very much in the relegation battle. Most teams have really struggled to break them down, and a strong 2-0 win in southern Switzerland last time out will have given them a timely booster in terms of their confidence levels. This is a solid, experienced group of players with a great deal of cohesion. It’s not the best Vaduz team I’ve seen, but it’s an effective one, especially from set pieces. I doubt anyone in Liechtenstein could inspire them more than the country’s all-time leading goal-scorer Mario Frick either, who is their current manager. I think that they’re well-placed to irk their relatively disinterested visitors tonight, and whether they get something from the game or not, I can see them keeping the score down because the alternative basically means that they’ll lose.

Therefore, I’m backing a low-scoring affair here. 

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.

Alanyaspor vs BB Erzurumspor

KO: 18:30 (UK time)

With a bit of luck, we should be in for a great game in Alanya tonight. The home team are still pushing for a European place next season whereas their opponents need the points to try and stave off the threat of relegation. It’s the last opportunity BB Erzurumspor have got; it’s win or relegation for them – and even a win might not be enough, depending on what Ankaragucu do.

Things are rosier for Alanyaspor, all things considered, but they’re dealing with a seriously in-form Sivasspor who aren’t letting up a jot. They’ve got a really tough game against Fenerbahce tonight though, and that could well be Alanyaspor’s avenue to finishing higher in the table. Either way, there aren’t enough games left for them to pick and choose where and who to attack; they simply need to win their remaining games, and hope luck goes their way.

The brutal reality here is that both teams can only accept a win though. BB Erzurumspor are officially relegated if they do anything but win this match, and Alanyaspor are off to face relegation-threatened Ankaragucu at the weekend, who will not give them an inch, so a win tonight is absolutely paramount for both teams. 

Alanyaspor haven’t scored many lately but then again, they’ve not done so against Turkey’s better teams for a while now. It’s against everyone else where Alanyaspor shows what they do – well, normally anyway. I still don’t think that boss Tokatli is the right man for them; they don’t look anywhere near as good now as they did a couple of years back. Having said that though, an attack containing Kadzior, Pektemek, Davidson, Ucan, and Karaca will score goals against the right opponent, and it’s not like BB Erzurumspor can sit back here. Also, I know that Ucan is out, but you get the point!

I watched the back end of BB Erzurumspor’s hosting of Kasimpasa at the weekend, and they were poor, even against ten men. Their finishing wasn’t good enough, and how Kasimpasa didn’t score three in the closing stages, I truly do not know. The home team afforded them great chances which the Istanbul outfit simply didn’t take. Now BB Erzurumspor need to win, and they’ve got to do it without some of their best players. Lithuanian attacking midfielder Novikovas, for example, is one of them; arguably their best player this season. 

Moroccan defender da Costa is another absentee, as is Hatipoglu – that’s two of their best defenders out. Striker Gomes is out too. It’s too much, but what can they do? There’s no alternative here. Luckily, they picked up Moroccan attacker Chahechouhe earlier in 2021, and he’s not only very experienced at this level, but also in a relegation battle too. He could prove to be the star for them here. If he, Obertan, and Donald can get at Alanyaspor, and Bassan can continue to help out Karakullukcu, then they can score enough goals to stay up tonight. I wouldn’t bet on it though, not with half of their back four out.

Ultimately, there’s nowhere left to hide here; it’s goals, goals, goals. I expect this one to be open and fast-paced from the start, and thus backing over 3 goals appeals to me greatly.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 28/25.

Wil vs Chiasso

KO: 19:00 (UK time)

Things may be interesting in the Super League above, but the Challenge League isn’t doing so bad entertainment-wise, you know! Grasshopper Zurich are predictably bottling their promotion push, although whether they’ll be punished for it remains to be seen. There’s a huge game tonight between FC Thun and FC Schaffhausen, which will be very revealing on that front, at least as far as Switzerland’s biggest club is concerned; not so much for the others. It’s the relegation battle that is fascinating me though!

Ordinarily, Chiasso tend to be doomed by now. They’re part-timers playing in a professional/semi-professional league, they’ve got no money, and only ever take chances on loanees/free transfers so you can guess how things tend to go for them. How they’ve survived for as long as they have without being relegated is one of the great mysteries of Swiss football, to be honest. Anyway, this tends to allow those teams above them to ease off the gas, confident in the points gap keeping them up. Eventually, one of the teams above Chiasso ends up getting denied a license for next season, and thus getting demoted, which keeps Chiasso in the division. 

This season is different though. Chiasso battling hard is nothing new; that’s their main strength. They’re very much an Italian team playing in Switzerland! However, this season – at least in 2021 – they’ve been remarkably effective, and not just against Grasshopper Zurich for a change! I’ve watched them a lot lately because, well, I’m odd – and they’ve been excellent, even in the games they’ve not won. They should have beaten Grasshopper Zurich – where have I heard that before?! – and could have got something against Thun too, beating Winterthur and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy either side of the defeat in the Bernese canton. 

The end result is that Chiasso now have a legitimate shot at beating the drop. You’d have to be pretty fucking ballsy to actually back them to manage it, mind you, but they’re playing well enough, so why not? I know they’ve still got FC Schaffhausen away to come but if they lose against FC Thun tonight, then their season is all but over anyway. I think Chiasso have enough scope to make this interesting, that’s for sure, especially with Bahloul being his usual classy self. Furthermore, although they’re not scoring enough goals, the likes of Bnou Marzouk and Manicone are causing problems up front with their speed and movement. 

Essentially, Chiasso are a very fast, determined team. They move the ball quickly, and press hard. They’re good at scoring from set pieces, and they’re good at annoying teams that underestimate them. No, you should never really trust them to do a 100% professional job because they’re simply not good enough. They will usually concede, no matter how good their original defensive structure is, and that tends to keep them on the back foot. However, now that the shit has hit the fan, they’re playing boldly and scoring goals; even pressing for more after taking the lead. This is not a team to take lightly right now, which is why the odds dropping on the home win here surprises me as much as it does.

I can’t deny that Wil have a better squad than their opponents but they’re hardly on fire themselves, you know? They’re working hard and scoring goals, but seldom scoring enough to outscore opponents. Apart from that wholly bizarre 7-0 win against high-flying Aarau, they’ve not beaten anyone, despite their best efforts. Truth be told, it was blind luck that got them the draw at the Maladiere last time out. I lost chance of how many times Xamax could have – and should have – killed that game off on the break, and Mafouta should feel especially guilty there. Then, one long punt downfield, and an opportunistic run from Jones later, they equalised with virtually the last kick of the game. 

So, yeah – Wil aren’t doing enough to make me want to back them to win tonight, even though they have better players, for the most part. I can’t deny that Wil have the better goal-scoring threats anyway; Jones is one of them, of course. Veteran Silvio is getting slower every time I see him but his intelligence and reading of the game is perfect for them, which helps Jones and Tushi to no end. With Alexander Frei leading the team, it cannot be considered a surprise that Wil find the net regularly. With Fazliu, Muntwiler, rapid Haile-Selassie, and emerging youngster Krasniqi making things happen, not to mention Kamber and Brahimi, Wil have enough creativity for their forwards too.

Their defence is a mess, though. It lacks leadership, protection, consistency, experience, and belief, which makes it far from ideal for a relegation battle that Wil have been dragged into by an arising Chiasso. It’s fair to say that Chiasso need the win more than Wil tonight, but it’s also fair to say that Chiasso are giving it their all to stay in this division so Wil cannot be complacent here. Ultimately, I expect these two teams to push one another’s buttons in what should be a very determined and yet nervy game. I can see both teams scoring, and given the importance of the fixture, someone needs to go for the win so I believe that backing over 2.5 goals makes sense here. 

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

FC Basel vs Lugano 

KO: 19:30 (UK time)

Although of substantially less quality now than it has been in recent years, it cannot be denied that Switzerland’s Super League is both competitive and entertaining. Take the position of tonight’s visitors Lugano as a handy example. They can’t officially rule themselves out of the relegation battle, especially keeping in mind their recent form, and yet they remain one of the better-placed teams to claim a European place next season too. It’s got to be very taxing for teams like these to work out whether they’re playing to avoid the drop, or playing to get into Europe. Some teams have been rather open over the past few years, openly stating that they don’t even want to be in Europe because it never goes well for them, and only serves to derail their domestic campaign. Suffice to say that, with three rounds remaining in the Super League, only one position has been decided, and that’s Young Boys Bern’s.

Some folks probably still think that FC Basel are a top team in Switzerland, which is patently not true anymore. They’re still a massive club, and they’ve still got a handful of brilliant match-winners, particularly in midfield. However, they lack the consistency to be regarded as a top team nowadays. They don’t invest well enough, and in general their decisions behind the scenes are all questionable nowadays. They can play well, die Rot-Blau, and I certainly hope that tonight is one of those times, but it generally pays to assume that they’ll concede once or twice because they’re not good enough at controlling games.

Creating chances? Sure, they’re good on that front. They’re spoilt for choice, actually. Some have had injury issues, naturally, but better midfielders than Frei, Zuffi, Stocker, Abrashi, and Kasami you’d do well to find at this level. At some stage, I’m sure that Grgic will become part of this squad, and it’s also worth mentioning that they’ve got Palacios, Males, and Bunjaku coming through so yes, very well stocked in midfield. Not many games go by where this team doesn’t create opportunities.

They lack balance at the back, and sometimes in attack though. Cabral is good striker for them because he’s good at both scoring goals and holding the ball up, and his height makes the overlapping from wing-backs that bit more effective too. Von Moos will be good in time, too – he just needs to work on his confidence. Without Cabral though, things get very lopsided and ineffectual. Luckily for us, he’s playing tonight, but this is an area that requires addressing. I mean, Zhegrova’s a brilliant dribbler and ultimate mischief-maker, but by no means is he a striker! 

Their defending concerns me more though, because they look suspect from most attacking situations. They’ve defended set pieces badly, they’ve defended against speed badly (especially Klose), and they’ve had way too many injuries in their wing-back positions this season for any kind of continuity to exist. Subsequently, finding gaps between them and the centre-backs, or forcing situations where players end up going for the same ball, is far easier than it should be when facing FC Basel. With the club unprepared to spend money nowadays though, I can see this situation getting worse before it gets better. I mean, can you imagine how bad they’ll be at the back if their only solid centre-back – Comert – leaves? I think he will too, you know.

Still, as far as tonight goes, I think the home team will be ok. The weekend defeat will have irked them, but not enough to derail them against out-of-form Lugano. They’ve actually looked that bit more compact and organised lately, which is nice. I do prefer an attacking FC Basel, it’s true, but they’re not in a position to play that way without conceding as many (or more) as they score so it does make sense. I think they’ll be able to deal with Lugano relatively well tonight, and with their superior midfielders in mind, I have to believe that they’ll win this one. They may only embarrass themselves in Europe next season, but it’d be far more embarrassing if they weren’t even in it…

Lugano are a team I like, admittedly. I think they did brilliant business back in January by bringing in Portuguese striker Abubakar from SC Kriens, and they’ve looked all the better for it. He’s still adjusting, of course, and has had a few injuries, but generally provides a very good, consistent reference point up front. Furthermore, he’s capable of fashioning his own chances, and also scoring those that are created for him – a bit like Gerndt in his younger days, although hopefully fitter! 

Of late though, Lugano have struggled. A lack of rotation, a lack of Abubakar, and a lack of creativity has really started to kick them where it hurts. Like everybody else, they’ve been asked to play a lot of matches in a short space of time, and they simply don’t have the squad for it. Their season has pretty much nose-dived ever since Luzern dumped them out of the Schweizer Pokal thanks to Maric hitting a very tame penalty kick deep into extra-time, which was saved by Muller. It’s weird that things have gone sour for them since then. Yes, I think they could have believed that they’d win the Schweizer Pokal with as much legitimacy as anyone else left in the competition, considering that the big boys were both out, but it’s not like their season is over, you know?

They can still get into Europe next season, Lugano, but don’t appear to want to now, weirdly enough. They were limp against Servette, horrendous against a poor FC Zurich, and even lost at home against plucky relegation battlers Vaduz last time out. They’ve not scored in any of those games, making it four out of five that they’ve failed to score in now, and scoring goals is the only way to upset/annoy FC Basel nowadays. Again, I do like Lugano, but this isn’t a good period for them. They’re playing as if the season is already over for them, and that’s making it very easy for teams to pick up points against them.

Therefore, I’m going to trust the home team to do enough to pick up the three points tonight.

Verdict: FC Basel to win at 9/10.

Santos vs Boca Juniors

KO: 23:15 (UK time)

In the reversal of this fixture, I backed Boca Juniors to hammer Santos – and they did. Doing the same in Brazil will obviously be more challenging, but the outcome should really still be the same for me.

I’d still have this opinion if both teams were in optimal condition because that’s just the way things are. However, I think this situation actually favours the visitors because they’re mid-season, having already played a lot of games against good Argentinian opponents this season. By contrast, Santos have only played in their local State Championship, in which there’s three good teams, with all due respect to the other participants. That doesn’t prepare you well enough for tough games against big teams, I’m afraid. Furthemore, in almost comedic fashion, Santos failed to qualify from their group anyway, which is highly embarrassing for them, considering that the four Sao Paulo heavyweights – Corinthians, Santos, Sao Paulo, Palmeiras – were all put in separate groups anyway. 

My belief is that Santos were still unbelievably fortunate to make the final of last season’s Copa Libertadores competition. I think they struck lucky with most their draws, only really producing one display of any class along the way. I believed – and tipped – that Palmeiras would have too much bottle for them in the final, and so it proved to be. Santos are mentally weak, and horribly over-reliant on forward Marinho. 

I appreciate that they’ve got kids coming through – don’t they always? – but it’s not enough for me because the team plays without soul, and without belief. I know they all want Kaio Jorge and Marcos Leonardo to both be the next Neymar but I really don’t see it, although as ever, I’m open to being proven wrong. Clever Venezuelan creator Soteldo has left, midfielder Pituca has left for Kashima Antlers in Japan, and now they’ve finally forced Peruvian winger Cueva out of the door, which they’ve been trying to do for two years, much to my amazement. This is an even weaker team than last season, and given how they failed to control any Serie A match last season, I’m struggling to envision how they’re now suddenly going to have improved enough since getting humped in Argentina to actually prevent another defeat against Boca Juniors.

It’s important that the visitors do pick up at least one point tonight, and preferably all three, given their defeat in Ecuador a week back. The Guayaquil clubs are always hard to play against though, so I can’t say that defeat there surprised me. I may question the lack of patience at Boca Juniors, but I can never question the quality of their squad, their financial backing, and nor the allure of the club as a whole. I mean, Cavani wants to play for them, Torreira wants to play for them, and I’m sure many others do.

In terms of who is actually there, they’ve got wonderful options. I daresay Tevez and Zarate have seen better days, given their age, but both are still unbelievably classy when they want to be. Colombian attacker Villa has been bagging the goals lately though, and with Cardona, Salvio, and Maroni there to make things happen, it’s not hard to see why Boca Juniors are seldom far from scoring goals. Their defence looks a bit slow, and overly focused on vicious sliding challenges, but it’ll do for a game of this nature because that’ll really unsettle Santos.

Ultimately, I’ve not got any reason to doubt the visitors tonight. They’re more experienced, more determined, more of a team, and simply better. Therefore, I’m on the away win.

Verdict: Boca Juniors to win at 7/5.