TFT Issue 3427!

VPS vs Gnistan

KO: 16:30 (UK time)

Although I did panic pre-season when VPS lost both Alanko and Sarr in the same transfer window, their acquisition of proven Ykkonen predator Multanen to partner club legend Morrissey more than restored my faith. You’d do well to find a better attacking duo at this level than those two, assuming they can keep Morrissey fit.

The Vaasa outfit also acquired Gambian attacker Ceesay from the Kakkonen. I’ve not seen anything of him, but Gambian footballers tend to do very well in Finland so I am optimistic that he’ll prove to be a good buy, although his red card in Turku last time out means that he won’t be playing today. With impressive youngster Gatambiye in midfield, Vahtera now on their books, and captain fantastic himself Strandvall still in the equation, they have a midfield that should dominate most Ykkonen fixtures.

As always, the question marks with VPS should be hovering over their defenders. However, in a pretty average Ykkonen with no real standout teams, even after TPS brought Hamalainen back to Finland, I’m not too worried about it. I will be worried if they get promoted this season and don’t take significant steps to improve it though. For now, VPS’ attack should be more than enough to ensure that their defending is less worrisome. I expect to see an example of such in their first home game of the current Ykkonen campaign against Gnistan.

I have to admit that I’m quite wary about the visitors this season, especially after they somehow lured Tolonen from Ilves to play for them. This can be a very physical division, which he’s 100% not built for, but the class he has could – and should – win them a lot of games this season. There’s simply no reason for him to be playing at this level so I can only assume that he simply wanted to be in Helsinki, and that Gnistan were the highest-ranked Helsinki outfit at the time that would be able to bring him in and play him. Any other consideration simply wouldn’t make sense.

I’m expecting Gnistan to perform as relative dark horses in the Ykkonen this season, as it goes. Tolonen is one thing, but they’ve also still got ex-VPS hitman Douglas Cae up front and Anyamele in midfield, both of which are a bit too good for this level. Lucas Morais has impressed since joining too, although I’ll reserve judgement on how capable he is. Much like today’s hosts though, Gnitsan are a very top-heavy team. Their defence is physically strong but little more than that, which means they’re going to be involved in plenty of high-scoring games this season. 

The main issue Gnistan will have this season – and today – is that they’re lacking a midfield controller; someone with patience and excellent vision. They had two players that could do that last season, namely Perovuo and Wakui. Perovuo has had injury problems for years, and given that I’ve not seen his name on any teamsheet, I can only assume he’ll be retired now. Wakui – well, I’ve given up trying to anticipate when he’ll retire, but wherever the Japanese legend of the Meistriliiga rocks up next, it’s not going to be Gnistan. Tolonen was brought in to be the new Wakui, and I think he can do that. He has to be closer to the front men because of his size though, and thus I still think they need a controller in midfield which simply isn’t there.

Subsequently, I’m left feeling like backing VPS to win this game makes sense here. It’s likely it’ll be high-scoring, but in such battles I’d always back the team that Multanen is on – and that’s VPS.

Verdict: VPS to win at evens.

Kristiansund vs Bodo/Glimt 

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

Unsurprisingly, Bodo/Glimt cruised to a 3-0 win over Tromso at the weekend. Knudsen’s new striker Boltheim scored on his debut, as did the class act that is Saltnes. I don’t think we can read much into that win though. As I said in my preview at the time, Tromso were missing boatloads of their best players, and they only know how to attack, which isn’t a good combination of things to have when playing away from home against the reigning champions.

I suspect we’ll find out far more about Bodo/Glimt in tonight’s trip to Kristiansund, who are one of the Eliteserien’s more prominent mirror teams. Essentially, they’re very good at being flexible enough to mirror what their opponents do, which is what makes them complicated to beat. I nearly backed Molde FK to beat them with a -1 Asian Handicap at the weekend but stopped when the odds got backed in too much because I didn’t trust the title hopefuls to beat a -1.5 Handicap instead, not against Kristiansund.

Kristiansund lost star striker Pellegrino to Damak in Saudi Arabia pre-season, defender Psyche to AEL Limassol in Cyprus, as well as midfielder Sorli to tonight’s opposition. Other than that though, they’re in the same condition as last season, and this club has never been about its individuals anyway – always the collective. Collectively speaking, they’re very effective with most players able to play multiple roles. When it comes to tactics, I genuinely regard Kristiansund as one of Norway’s best teams. Their lack of star talent is all that jeopardises what they do – and that should derail them enough tonight for Bodo/Glimt to win too.

They have made a few signings pre-season, tonight’s hosts, bringing midfielder Gjertsen back from his unsuccessful Polish adventure with Wisla Plock as well as Swedish  goalkeeper Hadaya from Levanger and defender Nilsen from Raufoss. These aren’t signings that will turn many heads, but I’m sure they’ll prove to be worthwhile acquisitions in due course; everybody always is at Kristiansund. They’re a very lively, hard-working bunch that almost never surrender, and I am sure they’ll continue to make Bodo/Glimt sweat to beat them, as they always do.

Bodo/Glimt do tend to beat them, though, whether they deserve it or not. The beauty of the away team tonight is that they can score goals at will. If things aren’t going their way, or if they concede a silly goal or two, they simply up the tempo and go and get themselves another couple of goals. Bodo/Glimt simply have more reach, more attacking power, and more effectiveness than their plucky hosts; that’s the reality here. Early season games can be a bit unpredictable, it’s true, but I’ve not seen enough change in Norway to doubt Bodo/Glimt here.

I doubt it’ll be easy, but the away win should come in.

Verdict: Bodo/Glimt to win at 83/100.

Sparta Prague vs Viktoria Plzen

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

Football can be very random sometimes, and I’d like to think you all know that by now. However, sometimes clubs deliberately make it more random, and that’s the case tonight. No, my comments are rather unusually not directed toward Sparta Prague, who are not responsible for this particular circus, but toward their far more stable and consistent opponents – Viktoria Plzen.

The news broke last week that Viktoria Plzen have sacked boss Gula, and replaced him with Bilek. The move doesn’t make sense from a number of perspectives. They brought him in to help the club developing its younger players to gradually phase out the ageing players that are currently there, which had been taking place. This decision was made because Plzen are in no kind of position to compete with the Prague clubs financially, so it was logical enough to bring a ‘builder’ manager like Gula in. However, to sack him less than a year into his contract was just bizarre. You can’t build a new team in that timeframe, you know? 

I can’t say that it’s always been a joyride with him in charge, of course. This is the first year for a long time that I can recall Plzen being outside of the top four at this stage of the season. However, the campaign hasn’t ended yet. There’s still a good chance that they can finish higher in the table, and let’s not forget that eight days from now, they’ll be playing in the Cup final. With that in mind, it really does seem an unusual call to sack Gula at this moment in time, even if replacement Bilek is likely to do a better job in the long-term.

The good news is that, after two mistakes from backup goalkeeper Hruska in their draw with Marila Pribram, Plzen have got their number one goalkeeper Stanek back. The bad news is that they’re in the middle of a managerial change, and they need to go and beat Sparta Prague away from home. It’s certainly not an impossible thing, but let’s simply say that they’ve made it harder for themselves than they needed to, and quite how that works out will only be revealed in time.

Sparta Prague have a bit of inside information tonight, of course, with their current boss Vrba having done a sterling job with Plzen in the past. For my money, they’ve played well lately, the capital club. They even showed a lot of balls in their Cup defeat against Slavia, although the result was far from ideal on that day. They look a lot more creative and dangerous than pre-Vrba though, which I like. They’re perhaps not a team I would trust to beat many teams in Czechia right now, but they’re a team that can both score and concede goals.

Of course, a lot of that attacking power comes from wonderkid Hlozek, who simply cannot be at this club next season. He is far, far too good for this level. Quite what his true level is, I really don’t know. I’m not sure he has what it takes for Italy, Spain, or England, although it’s obviously difficult to say. At this level, he’s able to carry Sparta though, and considering that their only two strikers, Kozak and Julis, are both out, that’s particularly impressive. Indeed, winger Krejci I is out too, which makes Hlozek’s work even more impressive.

Sparta still have too many absentees to be trusted though. They’re still without defenders plus one of their best players this season in defensive midfielder Krejci II. For me, that kind of balance means that these two teams are going to end up toing and froing rather a lot tonight. I’m not sure that Sparta are in any kind of position to contain Plzen’s dangerous wide game, but I’m also not sure that Plzen can do even close to enough to stop Hlozek and co.

Therefore, I’m going to back over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Kalmar FF vs IFK Goteborg 

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

What’s that you say? Signing Hamsik hasn’t magically made IFK Goteborg into Sweden;s best team ever? Well, I am shocked(!).

It’s always a big risk, bringing in a player that is that good at a level he’s clearly too good for. He’s got to somehow get on the same mental plain as those around him, and that’s really tough sometimes for obvious reasons. I do think that IFK Goteborg are heading in the right direction though. I just hope that the signing of these veterans is something of a stop gap until their kids mature because they’ve got some excellent talents coming through right now, and it would be a crying shame for them to sit on the backburner with no real direction for them in mind.

One thing Hamsik has brought to Goteborg is the ability to control matches though, and they really missed that last season. They didn’t lack intensity, determination, nor speed, especially not on the break. Teams that were smarter than they were proved too much for IFK Goteborg to handle, for the most part though. Hamsik’s arrival has stopped that, at least for the present. The only team that has beaten them in the Allsvenskan this season was newly-promoted Deferfors, and that was more of a smash-and-grab job where every shot on target they had went in during IFK Goteborg domination. 

Despite their low number of wins this season, I’ve actually been impressed with IFK Goteborg because of what they’ve shown. They’ve dealt with the overly physical nature of Halmstad away from home, and that will trip many teams up this season. They’ve dealt with BK Hacken Goteborg in their derby, and they dealt with AIK Solna well too. It’s only a matter of time before these draws become wins. The players will believe more as the games go by because they deserve something from each game right now – and that’s not common for them, at least not nowadays.

It may be that things don’t turn around tonight, but I think it’s worth the risk. These players are growing in confidence, injury-prone striker Sigthorsson has stayed fit and scored goals, tricky winger Sana is back to his bewitching best, and Wernbloom’s leadership is helping them to no end, no matter where they field him. They’ll only get better when striker Berg and full-back Wendt join them in the summer too. They’re becoming silkier on the ball, better at avoiding difficult situations, and more efficient. This is not a team that should lose in Kalmar right now, even if they’ve done that more than they’ve won in recent years!

Kalmar have had a good campaign thus far, which is nice to see after a couple of poor years. It’s also nice to see such a passionate Kalmar man as Rydstrom on the bench. I thought he did well at Sirius, and I think he’ll do well at his beloved club now too. They may not have much money, but they do have some good kids coming through, and they’ve got a few old hands to guide them now. That was their mistake last season, you see – too many youngsters, and not enough experience. When they almost inevitably entered a rut, they couldn’t get themselves out.

Now, though? They’ve kept hold of Israelsson, not that he’s played yet this season, and have managed to bring in Ring and Berg to help Romarinho, and that affords Kalmar far more composure. It’s very easy to get carried away with talented youngsters but they need someone to learn from – and now they have quite a few! I still think that they’re lacking in a proper striker, although I recognise the potential of Froling, not that anyone knows what he’ll come back like after his lengthy injury. 

Their defence is naturally a lot better now Bergqvist and Ring have been joined by Saetra, giving the team even more experience to call upon. I know that the Elm brothers are pretty much Gods in Kalmar but half of their problems last season were caused by fielding Viktor Elm in defence, which is a position he cannot play. He did his best there, but he was too slow, and not used to picking up runners – and that almost cost them their place in the Allsvenskan, hence the flurry of pre-season changes.

Their changes have made things a lot easier for tonight’s hosts. Much like IFK Goteborg, they’re controlling games better, defending better, and annoying teams more than usual. Their lofty league placing won’t last forever because they’re simply not that good of a team, but for now things are going their way, and I am sure they’ll prove to be a tough cookie to overcome for their more illustrious opposition tonight. However, there’s no denying that IFK Goteborg are the better team with better match-winners, so being able to back them with draw no bet odds of 49/50 is a risk worth taking tonight, in my opinion.

Verdict: IFK Goteborg to win with draw no bet at 49/50.

Varberg vs Hammarby 

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

I feared that Varberg would find their second season of Allsvenskan football too much, and so it’s proven thus far. It’s too early to write them off though, given that they have had to play against top teams like Malmo FF, Djurgarden, and even ballsy Elfsborg Boras, but it’s fair to say that things aren’t going their way right now.

Last season, what I liked the most about this team was its capacity to invent and both reinvent itself in the same season. When they first arrived in this division, they played a high pressing game, really getting at teams with energy and fearless play. All of their midfielders would turn on the ball when receiving it from defenders, and they had lots of willing runners down the flanks. It worked for a while, but then teams figured them out so they had to switch things up, and make the odd new signing. Varberg proved themselves to be a rather flexible and capable outfit, despite their obvious limitations.

I wasn’t sure they’d be able to do it again this season though. It’s one thing to arrive in a division where most teams in it don’t even know whereabouts in Sweden Varberg actually is, but it’s another after a year of playing alongside them all. They do seem to have a knack for finding bargains though, which I like. This season they’ve managed to pick up underrated target man Simovic, who has been playing in Japan for a while now. He’s yet to score for his new club, but I can’t even begin to tell you what a good signing that is for a nobody club. They’ve also picked up Stanisic from Orgryte in the Superettan, and despite him never having played at Allsvenskan level before, the big centre-back already has three goals in four appearances. Like I said – they’ve got an eye for a good player, Varberg.

Of course, the average level of this squad still makes them one of the relegation candidates, I’m sorry to say. They’ve got an abundance of speed in wide positions, and a great deal of drive in the team overall, but there’s just not that much quality, I’m afraid. They’ve not been totally outplayed in any of their games this season – but they have lost most of them by sheer virtue of their opponents outscoring them. I just don’t know why tonight’s game would be any different, even with wildcard players like Moon in the equation.

Hammarby haven’t really been at their best yet this season. They’ve done alright, don’t get me wrong, but this squad is capable of a lot more. I think we’ll see them get even better when veteran attacker Paulinho returns from injury. For now, they’re leaning a bit too much on new recruit Accam, who has not played in Sweden for a lot of years now, and both Ludwison and Selmani, the latter of which they picked up from Varberg pre-season. Neither are proven players at this level though, at least not for a big club, so I am a little bit dubious as to what the future holds for the capital club until Paulinho returns.

Having said that though, this is a very talented squad in general, at least from an attacking perspective. For me, they’re a top four Allsvenskan side. When you can call upon Bojanic, Andersen, and especially Khalili in midfield, you know you’re going to create lots of chances. Young Nigerian recruit Amoo has impressed this season too. My sole criticism of Hammarby is that they do seem overly reliant on their speed and intensity though. When it comes to actually breaking teams down, or dealing with teams that want to play a patient game against them, they struggle. That’s what happened in the Stockholm derby defeat against AIK Solna recently. 

Essentially, Hammarby do need to be that bit smarter. Having one of the best all-round attacks in Sweden is handy enough but not every team is going to defend like Sirius, you know? Their attack will bail them out of most situations, but not all. If they want to be taken seriously as title contenders, then they have to learn how to win ugly, and how to keep teams out. I don’t see Hammarby deviating from the same path they’ve followed for years though, which is why I don’t think they’ll win the Allsvenskan any time soon. However, I do think that their customary chaotic approach will be enough for them to beat Varberg tonight.

I expect goals, and I expect an away win here.

Verdict: Hammarby to win at evens.

FC Sion vs Luzern

KO: 19:30 (UK time)

I’ve ran this website for about fourteen years now – or rather, the football side of it! – and yet I doubt I’ve ever come across quite such a curious club as FC Sion. It all comes from megalomaniac Constantin, of course, who can’t decide whether to be their financial backer or their actual manager (he’s done it on three occasions now, I think). Because of his involvement, everything at FC Sion is very temporary, and bereft of direction. That’s why it’s so hard to take them seriously, and that in itself is annoying because they do actually tend to sign good players from abroad that few have heard of, or even give Swiss youngsters a chance that are unproven.

I honestly think it would be good if FC Sion got relegated this season. They really do need a wakeup call. They’ve been dicing with relegation for a while now, and this is the closest it’s come to happening. You can read whatever you like into their recent matches but for me, they’re still a very scared team that aren’t playing well. If luck goes your way then there can’t be any complaints, of course – we all need luck in some form or another! I just think that FC Sion have relied upon it too much lately, if that makes sense. 

Take the derby win against Servette, for example. They weren’t even the better team in that game, but they took their chances well enough, and ran out 5-3 winners. Last time out, they managed to beat St. Gallen in a do-or-die match, and the 3-0 scoreline would no doubt have you believe it was a comfortable display from them, verging upon a massacre – but again, it’s simply not true. They had to ride their luck, even against ten men, and couldn’t even get their act together well enough to break with any frequency. St. Gallen were still bringing attacking players on when trailing with ten men, just to give you an idea here, so FC Sion only stringing one or two counters together in the last fifteen minutes of the game was really poor on their poor. They scored from one – fair enough. Again though, this is a team that is riding its luck, and that won’t last forever. They need to be better than this, in short.

I think FC Sion are going to get a bit of a rude awakening tonight, to be honest. I can’t deny that they’re taking their chances really well at the moment but they don’t control games, they don’t create enough, and they’re still without a number of players. The momentum they have is sure to help, of course, and their situation requires focus. This is not a team that I trust though. They’re not consistent, and they’re mentally fragile. It does not take much to unnerve them, and they seldom have the togetherness to recover when things don’t go their way.

How a team like that is going to beat Luzern tonight, I do not know. Luzern have won five on the spin now in their pursuit of European football next season, which in itself is funny because they have said in the past that they prefer not to be in Europe. They’ve assembled a brilliant squad this season, and they deserve to be in Europe because of that, and the spellbinding attacking football that they play. European places are handed out based on where they finish in the Super League though, so they need to keep winning as most teams in this division can finish in most places, such is the competitive nature of the division right now.

Luzern have far more spirit, togetherness, and effectiveness than FC Sion though. Furthermore, this is a completely fearless team, one that came from behind to draw 3-3 with FC Basel a little while back – away from home, too. You can’t rile a team like Luzern; you can only hope to outscore them. I won’t deny that the visitors lack a solid defence but that’s not really been their priority this season. They’ve simply wanted to score lots of goals – and they have. Only Young Boys Bern have scored more than they have, and with the firepower now on Luzern’s books, so it should be!

Luzern need to keep the momentum going too; they’ve still got a Schweizer Pokal final against St. Gallen to prepare for, which is at the end of this month. They’ve every reason to feel content, and to believe in themselves, Luzern. That’s very much reflected in the energy that they still show in the Super League even now, despite a long campaign, and some problematic injuries of late. A team like this should not struggle to beat FC Sion, even with their hosts absolutely desperate for points right now. 

I appreciate it’s a bit of a pressure cooker affair, but for me, the team that can deal with that is Luzern. Therefore, I’m on the superior, confident visitors to win this one at generous odds.

Verdict: Luzern to win at 5/4.  

Torino vs AC Milan 

KO: 19:45 (UK time)

I’ve always been an admirer of Juventus, but I was nonetheless pleased to see AC Milan beat them recently. I was pleased because Pioli has done such a good job since he went there but would almost certainly be sacked if they didn’t make the top four. AC Milan was a team I ‘supported’ when I was young so I have a bit of a soft spot for them. After a decade of nothingness, it’s such a pleasure to see them getting back to the Italian summit, building a team rather than simply chucking money around. As long as they keep Pioli in charge, they’ll continue to progress. Chopping and changing managers does not help them though, as the past ten years has amply proven.

Now AC Milan must continue the good work by winning in Torino. That’s seldom an easy task, and especially so since Torino are kind to preserve their Serie A status. With Benevento’s defeat against Cagliari in mind though, I have to believe that Torino are safe now though. I certainly don’t expect them to push for the win against Milan here, not when a draw will do. Benevento are going to have to win at Atalanta Bergamo tonight(!) in order to cause a ruckus, which won’t happen, and on the last day of the season they’re up in Torino anyway. In other words, I really don’t see the home team panicking tonight.

If any team deserves to be relegated on merit alone though, I think Torino would have to be in the conversation. The fact that they’re still in Serie A is more a case of luck than anything else, given their constant chopping and changing of managers. Not only that, but each manager they bring in has a completely different style to the one before him. It’s hard to gauge what kind of long-term measures are in place there, or if indeed there are any, which I suspect there aren’t. 

Torino have some very good individuals, as Mihajlovic has amply proven in the past, but how long will they stay for with no direction? There’s already speculation in the Italian media that one of Mourinho’s first signings as AS Roma manager will be Belotti from Torino. If he goes, Baselli never fully recovers, and then Linetty goes, I really don’t think Torino can hope to stay up anymore. That’s how tight things are in Serie A now due to the highly competitive nature of the league. They may have gotten away with it for the current campaign, but they should be worried, Torino.

Since Nicola came in as boss, Torino have steadied the ship defensively but it’s come at the cost of their usually lethal attack. They’ve held their own well enough in games, but can they hope to do so against Milan? I’m not so sure. The energy that Pioli has instilled affords Milan the capacity to press and harass teams constantly to unsettle them, and they’ve become very effective with the ball now too.

I mean, whether it’s Hernandez surging forward, Calhanoglu’s vision, Kessie’s late runs into the box, Ibrahimovic’s class, the speed of Leao, or some Rebic/Diaz magic, AC Milan have ways to hurt teams. Lots of ways, actually – enough to keep opponents guessing. This pick is not about Milan overcoming Juventus 3-0 last time out, although the result will certainly have given them momentum. It’s more about the work they’ve done under Pioli as a whole, and how well they tend to combat resilient teams nowadays. I don’t see them bottling it like they once would have, the Rossoneri. 

Tomori’s arrival at the back has really helped them develop more of a wall for teams to get past, aided largely by fit, tenacious midfielders. That, fused with the brilliance of Donnarumma between the sticks, and they continually underrated work of utility man Calabria, ensures that getting at Milan is incredibly tough now. They’ve become an almost insufferable team, Milan – and it’s love to see. This is not a team that should fail to beat Torino, home or away.

Verdict: AC Milan to win at 4/5.