TFT Issue 36!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Today’s featured game is the Ukrainian Premier League match between relegation-threatened Sevastopol and heavyweights Shakhtar Donetsk.
Hosts Sevastopol have really struggled in the Premier League since obtaining promotion this season due to a lack of goal threat. Let’s face it – the only side to score less than Sevastopol is Metalurg Zaporizhya, which is unsurprisingly the only side in the Premier League that is still below them. Their defence record is far from assured but their record largely stems from their away games as their record at home is deceptively good. For a rather poor side, consider that Sevastopol have only lost four times in nine home games and that the only sides with a better defensive record at home are Dynamo Kiev, Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk, Karpaty Lviv, and their opponents today, Shakhtar Donetsk. Sevastopol is not an easy away game despite most sides in this division being better than they are and the pampered players of Shakhtar Donetsk may just find this a harder away game than they envisioned if they approach the game too casually.
That’s not Shakhtar’s only issue, either. New rules implemented by the Ukrainian FA dictate that at least four Ukrainian players must be on the field at the start of each game. Now, as most people are aware, Shakhtar Donetsk have an awful lot of South American footballers due to their financial clout. Therefore, Romanian boss Lucrescu simply has to make changes here, especially with Kucher absent for this game. Chygrynskiy will obviously be one of the four and I daresay Rakitskiy will join him but who else – Stepanenko? Vitsenets? They’re promising players but they certainly don’t provide the same level of quality as their team-mates, in my view, so Shakhtar should be a little under-strength here. In addition to the above, consider that Shakhtar Donetsk have a home game with AS Roma in a few days time in the UEFA Champions League and that their game with the Italian side will absolutely take priority – are they going to risk players here? They’re twelve points clear of Dynamo Kiev in the Ukrainian Premier League table so I don’t see this game being of great concern. Brazilian midfielder Fernandinho is on the verge of a comeback after a lengthy absence but I don’t see him featuring in this game – why risk him? That would be my question.
With the above in mind, I think there’s a better chance of this game going under 2.5 goals than the bookies odds of 7/5 suggest. For Sevastopol, this game is a cup final and although I doubt their attacking ability, I don’t doubt their ability to defend – well, on their own turf at least! Shakhtar keep the ball marvellously well, which is why they’ve won an astonishing seventeen times in nineteen games domestically this season. However, I don’t see them being concerned or enthused about this gritty away games so I think we’ll see a somewhat tight, boring, and ultimately low-scoring game here. Either way, under 2.5 goals looks far too generously priced at 7/5 so that’s my call for this game.
Team news – Shakhtar Donetsk miss Kucher and have doubts over Fernandinho.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 7/5.