TFT Issue 365!
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Featured game
Kalmar FF vs AIK Solna – under 2 goals at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan game between Kalmar and AIK Solna.
Kalmar are notorious in Sweden for producing inspired displays at the Guldfageln Arena. They just seem to put much more work into their home games than their away games and subsequently this is a very hard away game for any side in Sweden.
However, if Kalmar play in this game like they did at GIF Sundsvall last week then they’re going to struggle this year. Yes, they won, but their missing players are more than apparent at the moment. They lost some really big players pre-season with Ricardo Santos joining Djurgarden, Larsson joining Elfsborg Boras, Daniel Sobralense joining IFK Goteborg, and Johansson joining AZ Alkmaar. Just to clarify – Larsson and Johansson were two instrumental parts of their defence and Brazilian duo Santos and Sobralense were integral parts of the Kalmar attack, which is now dependant upon Daniel Mendes. Kalmar are not to be underestimated at home at any point but they’re simply not as good as they were and they don’t look capable of creating many chances right now.
Visitors AIK Solna signed ex-Fredrikstad star Celso Borges to provide something that the two departed Banguras provided and it’s partially working but it’s a slow process. Indeed, many things at AIK are a slow process with their football still somewhat reminiscent of the Italian greats…of the 90’s! For those of you unfamiliar with Swedish football, you can consider AIK as the most tedious/boring side in the Allsvenskan. They’re efficient when it comes to keeping other sides out – I’d argue that there isn’t a better side than AIK at this in Sweden – but they have no great adventure and subsequently find it hard to score goals. What concerned me about their opening game was that Mjallby Solvesborg did well against them just because they worked harder than AIK did in Stockholm – nothing more. AIK still have some very good players but they’re not a goalscoring side. Realistically speaking, a draw at Kalmar is not a bad result and I think they’d take it pre-match if offered it.
I’d not even go close to the 1×2 market for this game because there are too many questions and not enough answers about both sides. However, one thing that is sure is that both sides are struggling to score goals and both sides build from a solid defence so my call is under 2 goals at evens.
Verdict: Under 2 goals at evens.
Additional games
Stromsgodset vs Haugesund – home win at 10/11.
The bookies seem to underestimate Stromsgodset at home every year and I don’t know why. True, ‘godset are a selling club so new faces arrive each year but what they do better than any other club in Norway is galvanise their players and make them one solid and dependable unit. With the above in mind, it’s no surprise that Stromsgodset never manage to keep clean sheets because a good back four takes time to assemble. However, Stromsgodset always attack with tremendous desire and purpose and that can never be withstood by their opponents. On the artificial turf of the Marienlyst in Drammen in front of fanatical fans, Stromsgodset are the best home side in Norway, for my money. Few sides can match their immense home record in the Eliteserien over the past few years and I expect nothing less than a win from this tenacious side.
Haugesund are a nightmare to face at their ground but when they’re the away side, it’s usually only a matter of time before they succumb to defeat. Haugesund are very much a “creature comfort” side that will upset even the biggest names in Norwegian football on their own turf (if allowed) but they’re the Divisjon 1 side that got them promoted when they play away from home. They lack the names that they need to lead them in games such as these and although they do possess some experience, they’re still not a particularly good side. I’d almost always avoid betting against Haugesund when they’re at home but I’d almost always go against them when they’re the away side.
For me, this is one of the strongest home sides in Norway entertaining one of the most predictable away sides in Norway. 10/11 on the home win is an absolute steal here, whether it comes in or not, because you’d be lucky to find this at 7/10 mid-season after Stromsgodset’s immense home form has started to show on the Eliteserien table!
Verdict: Stromsgodset to win at 10/11.
FC Brasov vs Concordia Chiajna – home win at 5/6.
Brasov at 5/6 to win at home? Really? They’re one of the strongest sides in Romania at home! It’s incomprehensible as to why they are so good at home when you consider just how many players they sell each year but they are. This season, I can name only a handful of sides that have been as good at home as Brasov have been and nothing’s changed for me – they’re still dynamite. Concordia have been terrific of late as they attempt to beat the drop but it’s going to take more than wins against Petrolul Ploiesti or Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt to convince me that they’ve got a chance of upsetting the odds against an experienced and frankly superior Brasov side. For me, the home win is a steal at such long odds.
Verdict: FC Brasov to win at 10/11.
IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
This is the riskiest tip I’ve given today but I still like it. IFK Goteborg somehow lost against a crap Syrianska Sodertalje side despite leading 0-1 at half-time and that’s symptomatic of the way IFK are – brilliant on occasions and crap on other occasions. You will very rarely see IFK play an “average” game as they simply don’t have that capability. They’ll either be brilliant or terrible.
However, for this season, I think we’ll see them at their brilliant best much more than we’ll see them playing badly. Why? Well, as I mentioned in my last preview of IFK, they’ve signed some superb players pre-season and now possess one of the best midfield/attacks in the country. There’s still improvements to be made, especially on the cohesion front, but IFK are twice the side that Norrkoping are and they should demonstrate it on their own turf, especially with inspirational leader Hysen in their ranks. IFK Norrkoping were very good in their 1-0 win against Helsingborg although it has to be noted that Helsingborg were awful in that game. IFK Norrkoping seem to have special powers of survival when it comes to playing in home games and have done for some time but they’re not a very good side on paper. Their policy is to have lots of attacking players in an attempt to score goals and thus win games/avoid defeat rather than rely on their shitty defence. It’ll work in some of their home games but they’ll have to play bloody well to get a result against this IFK Goteborg side, in my eyes.
I just can’t help but look on the -1 Asian Handicap at evens being a steal for IFK Goteborg here because they’ve got players that are twice as good as Norrkoping’s players in every position, hence my call.
Verdict: IFK Goteborg to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Team news
Bulgarian A PFG:
CSKA Sofia – Priso and Stoyanov are absent. Moraes is a doubt.
Svetkavitsa – No absentees.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slavia Prague – Hurka, Contofalsky, Conka, Frejlach, Kores, Simecek, Blazek, and Skoda are absent.
Viktoria Zizkov – Cermak and Folwarczny are absent.
Danish Superligaen:
AGF Aarhus – Arkharraz, Lucena, and Sorin are absent. Eckersley returns.
FC Copenhagen – N’Doye, Larsson, Claudemir, Delaney, and Vingaard are absent. Zanka returns.
Brondby – Magrath and Krohn-Delhi are absent. Rommedahl returns.
HB Koge – Kronborg returns.
AC Horsens – No absentees.
Lyngby – Madsen is absent. Krabbe returns.
OB Odense – Christensen is absent. Johansson returns.
SonderjyskE – Bodker is absent.
English Championship:
Blackpool – Taylor-Fletcher, Bednar, and Phillips are absent.
Barnsley – Butterfield, Done, Doyle, Hassell, Edwards, and Steele are absent.
Bristol City – Clarkson, Elliott, and Nyatanga are absent.
Coventry City – Cameron, Wood, and Hreidarsson are absent.
Cardiff City – Miller and Gestede are doubts.
Watford – Mariappa is absent.
Crystal Palace – Gardner and Jedinak are absent.
Southampton – Schneiderlin is absent.
Doncaster Rovers – Woods and Bamogo are absent. Piquionne is a doubt.
Burnley – Mee, Lafferty, Rodriguez, and Paterson are absent. Bartley is a doubt.
Hull City – Hobbs, Chester, Dudgeon, and Koren are absent.
Middlesbrough – No absentees.
Ipswich Town – No absentees.
Leicester City – Vassell, Waghorn, and Danns are absent.
Leeds United – Clayton and Thompson are absent.
Derby County – Ward is a doubt.
Peterborough United – No absentees.
Nottingham Forest – Elokobi is a doubt.
West Ham United – O’Brien is a doubt.
Birmingham City – Spector, Ibanez, and Carr are absent.
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Tauras Taurage – Assistant manager Korobocka has left.
Siauliai – Rimkevicius and Rimavicius are doubts. Galkevicius will debutise.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Odd Grenland Skien – Semb and Lekven are absent. Eriksen returns.
Lillestrom – Gulbrandsen and Sundgot are absent.
Honefoss – Gjermundstad is absent. Olsen and Beugre are doubts.
Fredrikstad – Ramberg and Rafn are absent. Horn is a doubt.
Rosenborg BK – Jamtfall is absent. Strandberg and Brathen are doubts.
Sogndal – Flo, Roed, and Lund are absent. Bakke and Elvis may return.
Sandnes Ulf – Holmvik is absent.
Aalesund FK – Skiri, James, Sellin, Wembangomo, and Ulvestad are absent.
Stromsgodset – Hamoud and Aas are absent.
Haugesund – Johansson and Maeland are absent.
Tromso – No absentees.
Stabaek – No absentees.
Molde FK – Stensild and Rindaroy are absent. Paulsen is a doubt.
Brann Bergen – Mohys and Leciejewski are absent. Jonsson may return.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
LKS Lodz – Gancarczyk, Romanczuk, Mieciel, and Wyparlo are absent. Kujawa is a doubt.
Widzew Lodz – Ben Radhia is a doubt. Pinheiro and Kaczmarek return.
Lechia Gdansk – Janicki, Lukjanovs, and Wisniewski are absent.
Zaglebie Lubin – Rachwal is absent.
Korona Kielce – Kielb is absent. Golanski returns.
Lech Poznan – Arboleda is absent. Stilic and Wojtkowiak may return.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Sporting Clube de Lisboa – Oyewu and Rinaudo are doubts.
SL Benfica – Luisao, Jardel, Saviola, and Garay are doubts.
Romanian Liga:
FC Brasov – Enceanu, Munteanu, and Ionescu are absent.
Concordia Chiajna – Kolev is absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Malaga – Caballero, Toulalan, Baptista, Joaquin, and Juanmi are absent.
Racing Santander – Acosta, Tono, Babacar, Jairo, Gullon, Christian, and A.Gonzalez are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Kalmar FF – No news.
AIK Solna – Crespo is absent.
IFK Goteborg – S.Larsson and Dyrestam are absent. Gerzic, Valgardsson are doubts.
IFK Norrkoping – Tamm and Khalili are absent.