TFT Issue 368!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Elfsborg Boras vs IFK Norrkoping – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan game in Boras between Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping.
Generally speaking, this game is going to end in a home win. The artificial turf of the Boras Arena and the superiority of the hosts mean that the odds on the home win are pretty accurate, in my view.
However, I’m not so sure that it’ll be straightforward for them today. Elfsborg have a very good squad of players this time around, especially when it comes to creating and scoring chances. It can’t be denied that the heartbeat of the team is playmaker Anders Svensson, though, and he misses today’s game through injury. Elfsborg do have some very talented players in their side but they miss his experience and composure more often than not and thus the 1×2/handicap markets just don’t interest me.
One thing Elfsborg always have in their arsenal is the ability to score goals, however. Elm, Nilsson, and even talented young Claesson all have goals in them. Elfsborg are an attacking and goalscoring side by nature as it’s all that they’re good at. They don’t try to defend because they have no strength there but they attack very well indeed, arguably better than any other side in Sweden, in my view.
So they should win this game convincingly, right? After all, IFK Norrkoping aren’t very good. On paper, that’s accurate but IFK Norrkoping have ruffled a few feathers already this season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it again.
IFK Norrkoping are short of quality but they’re not short of cohesion nor determination. They got really lucky with their penalty at IFK Goteborg in their most recent game as the ball plainly hit the chest of the IFK Goteborg defender but the referee pointed to the spot. The second goal was a well taken finish from a set piece, however. IFK Norrkoping aren’t great defensively but they have no fear of any side in Sweden and thus their attacking is convincing and impressive.
There’s always experience in this IFK Norrkoping side and the technique of set piece specialist Ajdarevic always makes IFK Norrkoping a threat on some level. You can’t write them off when they’re playing with such enthusiasm and purpose. From what I understand, Helsingborg were very weak in their game with IFK Norrkoping at the start of the season but credit again goes to IFK Norrkoping for winning against a side that is frankly a lot better than they are!
Subsequently, I’ve lost all interest in taking a winner here. Elfsborg battering Norrkoping 3-0 really shouldn’t be unexpected as it’s quite possible. At this stage of the season, though, I’m not confident enough in Elfsborg to take them to do so in this game. The absence of Svensson is never an easy one for Elfsborg to handle although they do have a lot of good players. IFK Norrkoping can upset their hosts by at least scoring today but I thoroughly expect Elfsborg to do their fair share of goalscoring against their opponents too. Therefore, my call is to take over 2.5 goals at odds of 4/5. Most bookies have wisely shortened their odds but I’ve still found 4/5 on it at some bookies, which is a glorious price on almost any Elfsborg home game going over 2.5 goals!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Thoughts
I played with the idea of taking VVV with draw no bet against Vitesse because Vitesse don’t score enough goals to deal with the hosts in Venlo. A bad recent run of form may have demoralised VVV, however, and Vitesse are a very good side, albeit with a lot to learn, so I’ve avoided it.
I also played with the idea of giving Mjallby Solvesborg a +1 Asian Handicap against Hacken in the Allsvenskan. Hacken are too short following their unexpected 5-0 drubbing of slow starters Malmo but they’re not that good a side, really. They don’t have Ranegie or Paulinho any longer so they can’t command those odds, in my view. Mjallby have some threat on counter-attacks but are strong enough defensively to frustrate Hacken. Could be a surprisingly tight game but not enough for me to go off to tip it.
Team news
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Standard de Liege – Cyriac is absent.
Club Brugge – Lestienne, Stenman, and Zimling are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Villarreal CF – Nilmar and Rossi are absent. Zapata returns.
Malaga – Juanmi, Baptista, Caballero, Toulalan, and Joaquin are absent.
Racing Santander – Francis, Tono, Mario, Acosta, and Picon are absent.
Real Mallorca – Chico, Marti, and Kevin Garcia are absent.
Sevilla CF – Spahic, Kanoute, and Perotti are absent.
Real Zaragoza – No absentees.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Elfsborg Boras – Andersson, Augustsson, Svensson are absent. Klarstrom, Larsson, Ishizaki, Mobaek, and Stuhr-Ellegaard are doubts.
IFK Goteborg – Selakovic is absent.
BK Hacken Goteborg – Henriksson, Bjurstrom, and Wahlstrom are absent.
Mjallby Solvesborg – No news.