TFT Issue 37!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
I’ve added a few more games to today’s update for your viewing pleasure and hopefully to boost your profits. I have no particular reason for doing so other than to thank you all for your continued support – hope they work out well for you guys :)
The bin
Anderlecht vs Racing Genk – home win at 4/5.
I was tempted to take this as Genk have looked a bit susceptible over the past couple of months but to be honest, Anderlecht have looked a bit ineffectual lately too. The rumours of Boussoufa having agreed to leave Anderlecht to join an unnamed Russian club also puts me off immensely as they struggle for creativity without him so a big “no bet” for me here.
Featured game
Today’s featured game is the Soproni Liga game between Kecskemeti TE and Debreceni VSC. Hosts Kecskemeti have been immense this season in front of goal – they’ve only lacked in defence so it’ll be interesting to see how they fare against sleeping giants Debreceni VSC today.
Although I appreciate that Kecskemeti do struggle a lot in defence, odds of 7/4 on them winning this game seem awfully long here, especially when you consider that only league leaders Fehervar have scored more goals than today’s hosts have. Kecskemeti average scoring over two goals per home game so it’s no surprise that they’ve won five out of their eight Soproni Liga home games this season despite some poor defending. You might think that their form has fizzled out over the winter break but to be honest, they’re nothing if not more potent, bagging thirty goals in thirteen friendlies. Their line being led by ex-Debreceni VSC attacker Tokoli looks dangerous, especially with the addition of loanee attacker Vujovic (from Fehervar so he’ll be particularly keen to do well against his parent club’s rivals!) so I think we can expect a good Kecskemeti TE display today.
Visitors Debreceni VSC possess the shocking record of having scored less away goals in the Soproni Liga this season than any other team, despite being arguably the second biggest club in Hungary. You might think that the winter break would have done them so good but if anything, it seems to have worsened the team. They’ve had UEFA investigations and subsequent bans but their misery was further compiled when boss Herceg left. Debreceni VSC brought in Scasny and he’s now got a lot of pressure on him due to a poor domestic showing from Debreceni VSC thus far. Additionally, the departures of winger Laczko to Sampdoria and captain Kiss to Panserraikos have really harmed the overall ability of Debreceni VSC. They have drafted in Serbian goalkeeper Novakovic to replace under-pressure Malinauskas but to me, their problem isn’t in that area of the field – it’s the goalscoring end that is the problem.
Intriguingly, this exact fixture was played a few days ago in the Magyar Kupa and Kecskemeti TE won the game 3-1 so I’m hoping that lightning strikes twice here. Debreceni VSC are obviously the better of these two sides overall but will they have the firepower to defeat their hosts? I don’t see it, not after such a poor domestic campaign. The hosts are enthused and potent and although their defence is vulnerable, I can see them scoring a lot of goals here as Debreceni VSC are rapidly proving that they’re not a name to simply be feared in Hungarian footballa nymore. Therefore, I think taking a home win with draw no bet odds of 11/10 represent good value here, especially as the outright win looks over-priced at 7/4.
Verdict: Kecskemeti TE to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Additional games
MyPa Anjalankoski vs TPS Turku – home win at 10/11.
Although MyPa have played less Liiga Cup games than any other side in the tournament, they still have to face the fact that they’ve claimed just one point from a possible nine so they have to strive to improve here or face an early exit.
Like all of MyPa’s home games thus far, this game has been moved to the Lehtomaki Tekonurmi indoor arena in Kouvola for weather purposes, simply put! MyPa have played well in their three games thus far, especially those at home, and I think they’ve been quite unlucky. They’ve faced the two best sides in Finland currently – HJK and Honka respectively – and faced a very good Inter Turku side and should probably have won the game. However, MyPa are now facing a side that they could and should beat – TPS Turku – and I expect them to take three points if they continue their surprisingly potent and effective displays.
Visitors TPS Turku have battled well during the Liiga Cup but the chinks in their armour are really starting to show with so many first-team players having departed over the winter. Their form looks better than MyPa’s on paper but in my view, that’s the only place that they’ve looked better than MyPa. TPS have faced two good sides in the Liiga Cup – HJK and Honka respectively – and have lost to both of them. They’ve faced two poor sides away from home – IFK Mariehamn and Haka Valkeakoski respectively – and have won both of those games. Credit must be given where it’s due – to win any game deserves recognition – but I think the odds on show today give TPS too much recognition and we’ll hopefully be able to take advantage of that today as TPS’ team is largely a lot of youngsters trying to support Aaritalo, although midfielder Kolehmainen is a good playmaker in their ranks too.
MyPa only lost one or two regulars over the break and a change of coach has turned them from a drab side into an entertaining and dangerous side, gradually inching towards the side we all saw many years ago taking on the likes of Blackburn Rovers in the UEFA Cup. MyPa are starting to believe in themselves and I think we’ll finally see that come to fruition on paper. TPS Turku will battle hard here but at the indoor arena where MyPa have impressed a lot already, I think there’s only one winner here and that’s MyPa at 10/11 – they’ve got more experienced players than their opponents, after all.
Verdict: MyPa Anjalankoski to win at 10/11.
Dinamo Bucharest vs Pandurii Targu Jiu – under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
For some inane reason, Dinamo Bucharest have lost all their potency over the winter break and look a shadow of the side that they were earlier this season. Their confidence has nose-dived and some rather important players have departed the club but I genuinely didn’t think it’d have such a monumental effect on their playing style! Niculae left for Kavala and Cristea left for Karlsruher SC, as well as midfielder N’Doye leaving for Astra Ploiesti, but it just seems to have robbed Dinamo of all their attacking ability somehow. It’s now down to Torje and Ganea to carry the team with old striker Danciulescu still a potent figure in the box but lacking in the mobility department nowadays. However, these tactics aren’t very good for Dinamo as a mere 0-1 victory at Sportul indicated last match so they should be in for a rough ride today.
Ask any side in Romania who they don’t want to face when they’re either not playing well or not scoring goal and I genuinely think that most of them would say Pandurii Targu Jiu. Pandurii are notorious for being a strong defensive unit in games like this and rarely concede goals so they should cause problems for Dinamo here. Under Grigoras, Pandurii have become more adventurous in recent times and that does concern me here as if they take Dinamo on in an open game then that could be like poking the proverbial sleeping dragon in the eye.
However, Pandurii have gone under 2.5 goals in six out of their last seven Liga away games despite trips to Steaua Bucharest and Rapid Bucharest along the way so the unders are very much possible if Pandurii play intelligently here. Dinamo’s attack doesn’t convince me at all so I did consider laying the hosts for a while. However, the option of under 2.5 goals looks better value to me so that’s my call here, although it’s worth noting that Pandurii miss important defender Pintilii today.
Team news – Pandurii Targu Jiu miss Pintilii, Hidisan, and Avramescu.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Ujpest vs Siofok – Under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Although Ujpest have looked good under fans’ favourite Meszoly, we still have to take into account the departure of winger Simon to Feyenoord Rotterdam on loan for the remainder of the current campaign, something that I believe will impact Ujpest a lot. They’ve also lost defender Korcsmar to Brann Bergen and striker Tisza to Sint-Truiden so Ujpest’s average of scoring 2.5 goals per home game in the Soproni Liga may take a substantial dent in the latter part of this campaign. Ujpest are notorious for bringing academy players through and I’m confident that they’ll try to do that again now but it naturally takes time and frankly, I don’t think Ujpest have enough available to them today to make the short odds on them winning this game justified, especially with captain Vermes out for the vast majority of the current campaign through injury.
Visitors Siofok are kind of the perfect opponents for Ujpest, however. If Siofok were to attack Ujpest then they may cause problems as Ujpest have a strangely poor record against inferior sides but newly-promoted Siofok prefer to sit back, wait for counter-attacks, and defend like warriors. To be fair, Siofok have proven to be a very astute Soproni Liga away side this season, only losing four out of their eight away games, winning three times along the way. Sides find it very hard to break them down and that should be the case again today. However, the winter break wasn’t eventless for Siofok either, unfortunately – they’ve waved farewell to leading goalscorer Sowumni and attacking midfielder Ivancsics so their attacking game is virtually non-existant now, barring new Japanese midfielder Kazuo and experienced Csordas producing a mirale, so Siofok will have to work doubly hard to avoid the drop now.
For me, the above makes this game look like a low-scoring one, although statistics may lean towards it being otherwise. I’d normally be concerned about Ujpest’s defence with the above in mind but I simply don’t think that Siofok have the firepower to trouble them here. Even if they do, do Ujpest have the firepower to score a lot of goals against a solid Siofok defence? I don’t think so. Both sides are likely to still be a little rusty here so in my view, going under 2.5 goals at generous odds of 6/5 looks appealing today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/5.