TFT Issue 370!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
A word of warning to you all – as the majority of leagues draw to a close, the games become a lot more unpredictable. Subsequently, there are much less “dead certs” and thus it’s hard to find cast-iron winners. You may have noticed the absence of “Accumulator Fodder” on the main page today – that’s the reason why it’s not there. There are some deceptively tricky games today and the bookies aren’t helping. I fancied the Milan handicap, for example, but at 1.67 and after their horrendous showing in Verona? No chance. So, yeah – be careful with what you choose and consider lowering your stakes.
Featured game
Sunderland vs Wolverhampton Wanderers – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the Premier League game between Sunderland and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
I wouldn’t say that I’m jumping on the bandwagon with this one as I’ve been opposing Wolves ever since McCarthy was fired but I’m absolutely going to nail every side that still has to play Wolves this season. Why? Lots of reasons!
Firstly, there’s no experience at the helm. For an average side like Wolves, that’s just fatal. Secondly, they cannot defend from set pieces, which is a huge problem in a tactics-dominated division such as the Premier League. Thirdly, they bizarrely don’t play their best centre-backs, which means a lack of communication tends to ensue between the defence and their goalkeeper. On top of that, Wolves find it hard to dominate midfield and without any confidence nor belief in the chances of them avoiding the drop, it’s really hard to see them doing anything here against Sunderland.
The Stadium of Light has long been a fortress for Sunderland, which is something that all of the big sides in the Premier League can testify. They work hard, they’re physical, and they have some very good players. Sunderland’s form of late is questionable and their motivation may not be as high as it could be but frankly, I would expect a half-assed display from Sunderland to crush a vulnerable and depressed Wolves side.
Rumour has it that Bendtner will return for Sunderland today and with Campbell back in training, Sunderland should finally have some firepower back in their ranks. To be honest, if Sessegnon turns it on, then a striker is somewhat redundant here. The Benin international has lit up the Premier League this season and he can rip this Wolves defence apart if he so desires. He’s a bit of a temperamental player as any Paris Saint-Germain fan will tell you but he’s a very capable player nonetheless. Sunderland have more than enough pace, skill, and finesse to win this game comfortably and barring the best display that Wolves would have produced in 2012, I cannot see anything but a home win occurring here.
So, yeah – let’s all handicap Sunderland! 5/6 on them to beat the -1 Asian Handicap is well worth a flutter here although I cannot stress enough that you don’t take the European Handicap just because the odds are better. Insurance is very useful at this stage of the season!
Verdict: Sunderland to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Additional games
Atlantas vs Kruoja Pakruojis – under 2.5 goals at evens.
Well, guess who won’t be as shit as they were for much longer? Uh-huh – Atlantas! Their old president came back after a lengthy absence with an arsenal of people with him that want to make Atlantas into a good club. They have a long, long road ahead of them but they’re getting there gradually. They’ve signed former striking prodigy Raizulis, who is a very capable goalscorer, especially at this level. They’re dreaming if they think that they’re ready to start beating sides yet but the impact on the club is there for all to see with morale much higher in their last couples of games, hence results having been much closer than usual.
Kruoja are an average side but as they build from the back, they tend to rely on their defence more than their attack so I expect slow and unadventurous football from the visitors. They’ve held their own well this season, even against giants Zalgiris Vilnius, and have kept two clean sheets in their last three A Lyga games. Not many sides will batter Kruoja at any stage and I doubt Atlantas have the power to do that – yet!
So, yeah – a morale-boosted Atlantas side entertain a solid and dependable but boring Kruoja side. Most likely outcome = 0-0. However, I find a lot more value in taking under 2.5 goals at evens as I just can’t envision this game going over 2.5 goals, even if red cards come about – neither side attacks enough for it to occur!
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Nomme Kalju vs Flora Tallinn – home win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Alright, the first thing to clear up is that Nomme Kalju are not playing at home here. No, they’re playing at the Sportland Arena, which is in Tallinn. Guess who that ground belongs to? Yep, you got it – Flora Tallinn! Technically, Flora Tallinn are at home for this game as Nomme Kalju’s stadium is being revamped to improve the shitty turf.
However, despite that, I’m still all over Nomme Kalju here. They’ve demonstrated many times already this season in the Meistriliiga that they’re capable of being champions and with their squad only getting stronger pre-season, I find it more and more likely that they’ll win the league this season.
Both Levadia Tallinn and Flora Tallinn have got much younger squads now and Nomme Kalju frankly have better players than both of them, in my view. Trans Narva are playing terribly with zero confidence and Sillamae Kalev are nobodies, although they’re at least improving on their atrocities from the start of the season.
Nomme Kalju have a great chance to ramp home their authority here and I think they’ll do it too. There’s so much firepower and talent in their squad that Flora Tallinn just don’t concern them. Don’t get me wrong here – I don’t expect Nomme Kalju to become complacent for this game. However, Flora Tallinn have just been woefully predictable in their recent games and I can’t see them scoring points off Nomme Kalju playing like they have done of late.
For me, there’s a lot of value in taking Nomme Kalju with draw no bet cover at 4/5.
Verdict: Nomme Kalju to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Midtylland vs OB Odense – home win at 9/10.
Let’s all go against OB Odense! That’s the name of the game in the Superligaen right now and I can’t say that I disagree with the idea either. OB are just a complete joke right now. They present little attacking threat due to their demoralised squad. They’ve lost interest in the campaign because they won’t get anything out of it although they can consider avoiding relegation a bonus considering how badly they’ve played since the turn of the year. They’ve demonstrated beyond any doubt how bad their defence is and with no reason to motivate themselves to do otherwise, I can only expect OB’s horrendous run to continue, despite their admirable tenacity.
Midtylland are one of those good sides that tends to falter when they’re favourites so I’m a little nervous about this game. Still, on paper, and based on displays, you have to fancy the home side here. Importantly, Midtylland welcome back wide man Poulsen, which is a big boost. He’s an important part of this Midtylland side and will play a big role as they push for UEFA Champions League football next season. Besides – it’ll make a nice change for Midtylland fans to have a good attacking player that isn’t Nigerian playing!
Midtylland have won the last couple of meetings between these two sides, both of which were in Odense. They really should be able to repeat that feat on home turf against a defensively-inept OB Odense side today.
Verdict: Midtylland to win at 9/10.
Zenit St.Petersburg vs CSKA Moscow – home win at evens.
For me, Zenit are the better of these two sides nowadays. CSKA haven’t impressed me for a while with their lack of width, creativity, and midfield muscle. Had it not been for Vagner Love and Doumbia carrying them for the past few years, CSKA would have faded a lot quicker than they have, in my view. Their defence is still the strongest in Russia for my money but that only applies when it’s together, which it’s not today, helpfully!
Yep, Ignashevich and Vasily Berzeutskiy are both out, which leaves Alexey Berzeutskiy and Igor Akinfeev remaining as part of the mainstay of this CSKA team. Holding midfielder/makeshift defender Rahmic also misses out so CSKA are in trouble here. Barring a superb display, I don’t see how they’ll get a result at Petrovsky.
Zenit still miss Danny and joining him on the sidelines is Faizulin, Lazovic, and Zhevnov, but I’m not going to lose sleep about any of them. Danny is a terrific player but he’s been out for ages anyway. Arshavin is back at the club that made him what he was and he’s finally got the chance to re-open that amazing link-up play that he used to have with Alexandr Kerzhakov and I’m sure that will lead Zenit to glory again.
Zenit are a much more consistent side than CSKA and with the visitors missing two instrumental players from their side, you have to fancy the home win at evens.
Verdict: Zenit St.Petersburg to win at evens.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Central Coast Mariners – No absentees.
Perth Glory – Berger and Coyne are absent. McGarry is a doubt.
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Shakhtyor Soligorsk – Sitko and Lyavonchyk are absent.
Slavia Mozyr – Svorak is absent.
Torpedo Zhodino – Yatskevich is absent.
Belshina Bobriusk – Melnyk, Tupchiy, and Khaletski are absent.
Neman Grodno – Jablan and Lyahchylin are absent.
BATE Borisov – Kuntsevich, Patotski, Yurevich, and Valadzko are absent.
Naftan Novopolotsk – Shkabara, Berezovskyi are absent.
Croatian Prva Liga:
Slaven Koprivnica – Kokalovic, Poljak, and Canadjija return.
Lokomotiva Zagreb – No news.
Osijek – Lukacevic, Vrgoc, Maglic, and Perosevic are absent.
Hajduk Split – Maloca, Vukovic, Gabric, An.Sharbini, and Ah.Sharbini are absent. Vejic has left.
Sibenik – Spahija, Mislov, and Georgievski are absent. Vuk is a doubt.
Cibalia Vinkovci – Radotic and Juric are absent.
NK Zagreb – Jurendic is absent.
Istra 1961 – No news.
Rijeka – Tadejevica, Bosnjak, Sivonjic, Salcinovic, and Kreilach are absent.
Split – Rebic is absent.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Sparta Prague – Vidlicka and and Kusnir are doubts.
Teplice – Vondrasek, Volek, Ljevakovic, Sraga, Ceslak, and Vachousek are absent. Zoubele and Mahmutovic are doubts.
Slovacko – No absentees.
Hradec Kralove – Klapka, Fischer, and Rezek are absent.
Danish Superligaen:
Midtylland – Albrechtsen and Poulsen return.
OB Odense – Christiansen and Christensen are absent. Falk returns.
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Nomme Kalju – No absentees. Game played at Flora Tallinn’s stadium.
Flora Tallinn – Pedok is absent.
Tallinna Kalev – Alijev and Kago are absent.
Levadia Tallinn – No absentees.
Flora Paide – No absentees.
Maag Tammeka Tartu – No absentees.
Viljandi – No absentees.
Kuressaare – No absentees but should have tired players after mid-week game.
Trans Narva – Players criticising each other in the press.
Sillamae Kalev – Manager already under lots of pressure.
German Bundesliga:
Hamburger SV – Diekmeier, Mickel, Guerrero, and Rajkovic are absent.
Hannover 96 – Stindl, Abdellaoue, and Diouf are absent.
Kaiserslautern – Shechter, Knaller, Kouemaha, Simunek, Jorgensen, Wagner, Borysiuk, Tiffert, and Dick are absent.
Nurnberg – Esswein, Eigler, Hlousek, Judt, and Plattenhardt are absent.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Sam, Corluka, Bender, Schwaab, Da Costa, and Augusto are absent.
Hertha BSC Berlin – Franz, Lustenberger, Mijatovic, Hubnik, Janker, Neumann, and Ebert are absent.
Schalke 04 – Faehrmann and Hildebrandt are absent.
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund – Koch and Subotic are absent.
VfL Wolfsburg – Hitzlsperger, Chris, and Lopes are absent.
Augsburg – Gogia, Bah, de Jong, and Hain are absent.
Bayern Munich – van Buyten and Breno are absent.
Mainz 05 – Bell, Risse, and Svensson are absent.
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Siofok – No news.
Pecsi MFC – No news.
Ferencvaros – Somalia is absent.
Gyori ETO FC – No absentees.
Lombard Papa – Dlusztus is absent.
Szombathelyi Haladas – Guzmics is absent.
Kecskemeti TE – No news.
Zalaegerszegi TE – No news.
Paski SE – No news.
Debreceni VSC – No absentees.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
MS Ashdod – No absentees.
Maccabi Tel-Aviv – Pavicevic and Medunjanin are absent.
Bnei Sakhnin – No absentees.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona – No absentees.
Hapoel Tel-Aviv – Yadin, Oremus, Kende, and Tamuz are absent. Toama returns. Neutral venue.
Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv – Menashe and Balili are absent. Edri returns.
Maccabi Netanya – Dajani and Krupnik are absent.
Maccabi Haifa – Golasa and Degani are absent.
Ironi Ramat Hasharon – Lavi and Suissa are absent.
Hapoel Petah Tikva – Zarfati and Luzon return.
Hapoel Haifa – Khatib, Dankovic, and Erel are absent. Maman returns.
Hapoel Rishon Lezion – Musa and Mishpeti are absent.
Italian Serie A:
AC Milan – Abate, Thiago Silva, Inzaghi, Roma, Boateng, Pato, and Ambrosini are absent. Abbiati, Antonini, Aquilani, Merkel, Mesbah, and van Bommel are doubts.
Genoa – Constant and Moretti are absent. Kaladze, Belluschi, and Antonelli are doubts.
Udinese – Badu, Isla, and Pinzi are absent. Benatia and Basta are doubts.
Internazionale – Maicon, Sneijder, Castaignos, and Samuel are absent. Ekstrand and Fabbrini are doubts.
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Atlantas – Former president has returned.
Kruoja Pakruojis – Pocevicius and Slavickas are absent. Strockis and Savastas are doubts.
Banga Gargzdai – Dos Santos is absent. Mgeladze and Ostap return.
Suduva Marijampole – No news.
Vilnius – Grigalevicius is absent.
Siauliai – Jasaitis and Rimavicius return.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala – Sourek is absent.
Slask Wroclaw – Madej, Pawelec, and Kazmierczak return.
Wisla Krakow – Sobolewski, Bunoza, Chavez, Jaliens, Jovanovic, and Czekaj are absent.
LKS Lodz – Wyparlo and Gancarczyk are absent. Lobodzinski returns.
Legia Warsaw – Zewlakow, Kucharczyk, and Zyro are absent. Hubnik and Skaba are doubts.
Widzew Lodz – Ben Radhia and Dudu are doubts.
Polish Liga 1:
Warta Poznan – Magdziarz and Bartkowiak are absent.
Olimpia Elblag – No fans allowed in the venue.
Ruch Radzionkow – No news.
Polonia Bytom – No away fans allowed in the venue.
Wisla Plock – Matuszek is absent.
Dolcan Zabki – No news.
Arka Gdynia – Brodzinski, Ivanovski, and Radosavljevic are absent.
Flota Swinoujscie – Chyla and Nnamani are absent. Jasinski and Niewiada return.
Sandecja Nowy Sacz – Gawecki is absent. Janic may return. Boss Moskal has to watch from the stands today.
Gornik Polkowice – Kocot, Piatkowski, and Szamanski are absent.
Katowice – Kaciczak is absent. Big delays in wages at the club.
Bogdanka Leczna – Renusz and Pesir are absent. Nildo is a doubt.
Zawisa Bydgoszcz – Jankowski, Olesky, and Geworgian are absent.
Kolejarz Stroze – No news.
Pogon Szczecin – Lawa is absent. New boss – Tarasiewicz.
Olimpia Grudziadz – Kokoszka and Osiecki are absent.
Russian Premier League:
Tom’ Tomsk – Sosnowski, Gatagov, and Stroev are absent.
Terek Grozny – Mguni, Legear, Utsiev, Katzaev, and Komorowski are absent.
Kuban’ Krasnodar – Zhavnerchik is absent.
Lokomotiv Moscow – Tarasov, Tigorev, and Yanbaev are absent.
Krylya Sovetov Samara – No absentees.
Amkar Perm’ – Sirakov, Belorukov, Smirnov, Volkov, Popov, and Cherenchikov are absent.
Zenit St.Petersburg – Danny, Faizulin, Zhevnov, and Lazovic are absent.
CSKA Moscow – Rahimic, V.Berzeutskiy, Gonzalez, Dzagoev, and Ignashevich are absent.
Serbian Super Liga:
Vojvodina Novi Sad – Sacked manager Vukic. Omaru is absent. Moreira is a doubt.
Partizan Belgrade – Eduardo is absent. Game played in empty stadium.
Javor Ivanjica – Vidic is absent.
Radnicki 1923 – Spalevic, Oborvac, Petrovic, Rosic, and Milosevic are absent.
Red Star Belgrade – Evandro and Lazovic are absent. Vesovic is a doubt.
OFK Belgrade – Purovic is a doubt.
Rad Belgrade – Pejovic is a doubt.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Madrid – Xabi Alonso is absent. Marcelo returns.
Sporting Gijon – Mendy, Eguren, Gregory, Carmelo, and Barral are absent.
Levante – No news.
Barcelona – Villa, Abidal, and Keita are absent.
Turkish Super Lig:
Besiktas JK – Almeida, and Egemen Korkmaz are absent.
Galatasaray – Emre Colak is absent.
Istanbul BB – Zayatte, Vinicius, Hasagic, and Guzeldal are absent. Haspolatli is a doubt.
Eskisehirspor – Sezgin Coskun and Alper Potuk are doubts.