TFT Issue 372!
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Featured game
IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall – home win at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan game between IFK Norrkoping and GIF Sundsvall.
I think I’m actually becoming something of a fan of IFK Norrkoping. It’s shocking, I know, but they constantly impress me with their work ethic and their attacking intent!
Consider that their first three games of the current season were against Helsingborg, IFK Goteborg, and Elfsborg Boras respectively. Those are three of the hardest sides to face in the Allsvenskan and it’s a daunting way to enter any season. However, Norrkoping won the first two games and only lost the final game against Elfsborg and they were arguably unfortunate to lose in Boras with two goals being ruled out in that game, one of which was clearly onside and the other of which I sadly didn’t get chance to see a replay of. Norrkoping gave as good as they got but they unfortunately faced a better side than they are who possessed a deadly Lasse Nilsson in great form. Elfsborg have better finishers than Norrkoping and that’s what won them the game. Make no mistakes, though – Norrkoping always give a good account of themselves.
I’m hopeful that they’ll continue in that vein today against a lesser side. It’s easier to motivate yourselves to face a big side than smaller sides but Norrkoping strike me as a side that will always be motivated. They’re not a particularly good side – far from it. I’d say that they’re mid-table at best. They’ve got experience in Thorvaldsson and Johansson and a devilish set piece specialist in Ajdarevic. Hasani is a decent finisher and all in all, this Norrkoping side has good spirit and good cohesion so I’ll give them the nod here.
Newly-promoted GIF Sundsvall are a decent outfit but aren’t anything special. They’re a good passing side and thus to beat them you have to break up their possession. If you do that, you’ll expose their vulnerable defence and generally win the game. That’s precisely what Kalmar FF did on the opening day of the season without playing particularly well and that’s precisely what ten-man Djurgarden did in Stockholm last time out. GIF Sundsvall have earned some praise for the way that they play football but it’s effectivity that earns you points, not pretty football, and the fact is that GIF Sundsvall are too easy to stop playing.
GIF Sundsvall do bring momentum into this game following their 4-0 demolition of Syrianska Sodertalje. Syrianska are a fairly weak side too, though, and they allowed GIF Sundsvall too much time on the ball, hence the heavy loss. Barring Skulason and especially Holster, GIF Sundsvall lack quality and I think they’ll struggle against a battling Norrkoping side today because the hosts won’t allow them time on the ball.
For me, the home win at evens is well worth a bet with the proviso that the hosts take their chances because GIF Sundsvall shouldn’t see enough of the ball to get a result here.
Verdict: IFK Norrkoping to win at evens.
Additional games
Gefle vs Elfsborg Boras – away win at evens.
The golden rule of Allsvenskan betting is to generally not back Elfsborg away from home. They’re a very good side but the Boras Arena gives them their artificial turf advantage, which naturally serves as a disadvantage away from home. However, Gefle also use artificial turf at their stadium, which goes against them quite a lot today as Elfsborg are two or three times better than Gefle.
Gefle play defensive football with counter-attacks. It’s no surprise that they take that approach because their defence is pretty solid and their attack is pretty poor. They were annihlated 6-1 at newly-promoted Atvidaberg last match and that’s got to have demoralised them ahead of this game.
The thing is with Gefle is that they’ll rarely come from behind to get a result. They don’t have the firepower to do it and they lose their sole advantage from the moment that they push their defence further up the field. Gefle can be a tough nut to crack when they want to be but the moment they concede a goal, they’ve generally lost the game.
Elfsborg welcome back playmaker Anders Svensson, which is a huge bonus for them. Although Elfsborg’s result against Norrkoping last time out looked convincing enough, the truth is that Norrkoping could have and should have scored a couple of goals in that game and that Elfsborg weren’t creative enough in the final third. Norrkoping pushing on as the game drew to a conclusion gave Elfsborg the room to counter-attack, which they’re good at, but before that Elfsborg had struggled to penetrate with only a good header from Nilsson breaking the deadlock. Svensson gives them that additional dimension. He brings Claesson and Hult into play with his passing range, which aids Elfsborg in playing a wider game with much more speed and allows Nilsson/Elm to destroy defences in the box. Elfsborg have been ruthlessly efficient so far this season, though, and they do have a lot of experience in their ranks. Eventual Allsvenskan champions? Maybe. Nobody else looks more likely than they do at this very early stage of the season.
Focusing on today’s game, though – Elfsborg should win this one. They’re daft enough to concede against Gefle, most probably from a set piece (Norrkoping had a lot of joy from set pieces against Elfsborg). However, Elfsborg have more than enough creativity and firepower to put a few goal past Gefle. I’ve got 1-2 as a final scoreline in my head but it could be a heavier scoreline if Elfsborg score very early in the game and show the determination to increase the lead because Gefle’s heads will drop. Gefle are importantly missing regular defender Asp and regular midfielder Ohagen for this game too, and Gefle arguably have the smallest squad in the division.
Verdict: Elfsborg Boras to win at evens.
Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken Goteborg – both sides to score at 5/6.
Tough game to approach from the 1×2 perspective, this one. I would always give Kalmar the nod at home against anyone in the Allsvenskan because they’re inspired by their fans at the Gudsfageln Arena. However, they’re not a particularly good side this season and it’s showing. Maybe those are harsh words from me, I’m not sure – they’re simply not very effectual in attack. Daniel Mendes is carrying them and not very well, either – he definitely needs some help.
Kalmar haven’t impressed me so far this season with a narrow win at newly-promoted GIF Sundsvall, a somewhat lacklustre defeat against AIK Solna, and a poor showing at Malmo FF last time out. Kalmar have perhaps been a shade unfortunate not to get a point against AIK Solna but Kalmar heads drop when they fall behind. They try to push out to score and that exposes their dodgy defence. Kalmar usually do have goals in them, though, especially at home. In fact, Kalmar only failed to score in three home games last season so again, don’t write these guys off on their own turf.
Still, if anyone can upset them right now then it’s Hacken Goteborg. They’re playing very good football and they look superb in front of goal. It’s hard to accept that they are, given that they sold star striker Ranegie to Malmo pre-season, but Makondele, Waris, Chatto etc. are proving to be a nightmare to handle for every side. Hacken still haven’t learned how to defend with any kind of composure but whilst they’re scoring so many goals, does it really matter? Hacken are playing with great belief and momentum at the moment and a draw is a good result at Kalmar, let’s not forget. Hacken are playing without pressure whereas the hosts are following an unconvincing start.
I’m not saying that there will be an upset here but I’ll warn you that one is quite possible. However, I do fancy taking both sides to score here, from a value perspective. Kalmar almost always manufacture a goal at home and Hacken are more than capable of conceding, as they demonstrated at home against Mjallby in their last game. Hacken are in terrific goalscoring form themselves, though, and I don’t see how a demoralised Kalmar side will keep them out so my call is to take both sides to score at 5/6.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
Djurgarden vs Malmo FF – both sides to score at 5/6.
This is another hard game in the Allsvenskan to call from a 1×2 perspective. Djurgarden have really impressed me so far and nobody knows which Malmo will show up in Stockholm today.
However, I do fancy taking both sides to score here. The absence of Daniel Sjolund in midfield does hinder Djurgarden’s offensive push from midfield. Had he played today, I definitely could have been talked into taking Djugarden to win the game with draw no bet. However, I don’t see Djurgarden scoring more than once in a game without him because they rely so heavily on their midfield. They still possess a good midfield with Hamalainen, Chibsah, Nymann, and Rajalakso in it, though, and I expect them to cause Malmo problems. Ex-Eflsborg striker Keene has bags of pace and Ricardo Santos is a good forward so Djurgarden are a more potent side this year than they were last year. I’ve liked what I’ve seen them from them this season – they’ve looked enthusiastic, composed, and in control. Djurgarden could be a surprise package this year.
However, they’re facing the kings of “surprise package” – Malmo. How many sides in the Allsvenskan could be drubbed 5-0 against Hacken Goteborg and then dominate Kalmar FF in a 2-0 win? It just doesn’t make sense. Malmo are a fairly youthful side this time around, which may play a part. Norling’s tactics are gradually being implemented but progress is random with Malmo seemingly taking one step forward and two back at random intervals. There’s no doubt that Malmo is a top three side in Sweden when they want to be but when exactly is that? I tend to profit with Malmo by backing them when they’re not expected to do well and the trip to face Djurgarden is a tough one so perhaps today would be a day to consider doing so, especially without the influential Sjolund playing. However, I cannot bring myself to do it as I have little faith in them right now – I feel that they need their fans a lot at the moment to gain some confidence. Quality-wise, Ranegie, Larsson, Durmaz, Hamad, Wilton – they’re all more than capable of winning this game for Malmo as each of them possesses good attacking qualities.
Will Malmo win the game, though? God knows! I would hate to get involved in that side of things today. However, if Djurgarden take their chances and Malmo show some kind of composure and tactical knowledge then we should really see both sides score today.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
Zorya Lugansk vs Shakhtar Donetsk – over 3.5 goals at 6/5.
Put this one down to instinct, if you’d like. Zorya Lugansk are Shakhtar Donetsk’s feeder team so it’s no surprise they they always lose against Shakhtar. They usually lose a high-scoring game to make it more realistic and to advertise the Ukrainian Premier League. Shakhtar need the points and they’ll get them here, though – that’s why the odds are so low. Most of Zorya’s squad are on loan from Shakhtar; no other result than an away win is acceptable here. Shakhtar tend to win this game 1-3 or 1-4 so that Zorya at least take some credit from scoring. I dutched the two scorelines last time they met and was fortunate enough to win with it. I won’t be as bold this time but will take a stab at over 3.5 goals at 6/5 with the above in mind.
Verdict: Over 3.5 goals at 6/5.
Team news
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Banik Ostrava – Lukes, Sverkos, and Smejkal are absent.
Slovan Liberec – Fleisman is absent.
Danish Superligaen:
AGF Aarhus – Norgaard is absent. Lucena and Akharraz return.
Aalborg BK – Rolfe, Due, and Kristensen return.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Be’er Sheva – No absentees. Owner has quit post at Israeli FA.
Maccabi Petah Tikva – Prada is absent. Golan is a doubt.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Viking Stavanger – Cardozo, Andersson, Ingelsten, and Landu Landu are absent.
Molde FK – Steenslid is absent.
Stabaek – Hedenstad is a doubt.
Honefoss – Olsen and Gjermundstad are absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Polonia Warsaw – Cotra returns.
Cracovia Krakow – Suvorov, Hosek, and Straus are absent. Grzelak is a doubt.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Getafe – Rafa, Lopo, Ustari, and Pedro Leon are absent.
Sevilla CF – Palop, Spahic, Perotti, and Kanoute are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Djurgarden – Sjolund is absent.
Malmo FF – No absentees.
Gefle – Ohagen, Asp, and Leino are absent.
Elfsborg Boras – Mobaeck, Martin Andersson, and Augustsson are absent.
Helsingborg – Edman, Wahlstedt, and Sorum are absent.
GAIS Goteborg – Tamandi and Spong are absent.
Kalmar FF – Ohman, Djordjevic, Solheim, Eriksson, Carlsson, and Diouf are absent.
BK Hacken Goteborg – No news.
IFK Norrkoping – No absentees.
GIF Sundsvall – Eklund returns.