TFT Issue 373!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Kruoja Pakruojis vs Vilnius – under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Today’s featured game sees one of my favourite traits of betting last year continued as we return to the A Lyga where Kruoja entertain newly-promoted Vilnius.
Nine times out of ten in Lithuania, you’ll have games that go under 2.5 goals. Whether it’s because of crap pitches, defensive sides, or poor finishing, this approach will often work, in my experience. Puzzlingly enough, the bookies tend to give outlandishly good odds on that happening and I’m still yet to work out why.
I mean, why are Kruoja so short for this game? They’re the better side, yes, but they’re not worth those odds! They’ve won three games from six this season and only lost twice so my hat goes off to them. Let’s not overlook the fact that they’ve only scored four times and conceded three times during those six A Lyga games. It then doesn’t take a genius to work out in what way Kruoja play their football; without adventure! They will sit on any lead that they have and will accept a draw rather than risking pushing on for the win through fear of conceding.
Again; why are Kruoja so short here? This game isn’t even in Pakruojis – it’s being played in Panevezys, which is at a neutral venue! Kruoja are good at frustrating sides and keeping the ball but little else. They should be even more cautious today with defensive lynchpin Velius absent! I just can’t see how the “hosts” will score enough goals to ruin this bet, famous last words though they be!
Visitors Vilnius are poor too, and yes, they’re worse than Kruoja. They should defend here because if they push on then they’ll get embarassed Kruoja. Vilnius are confident ahead of this game following an unprecedented 3-1 victory against Siauliai, which stemmed from Siauliai underestimating their opponents. I doubt Kruoja will make the same mistake here. Vilnius focus on defence, like most A Lyga clubs, and you can understand that as it’s their first season in the A Lyga for some time. If you look at the games that Vilnius have scored goals in this season, you’ll note that they’ve scored goals against sides that will attack them with the exception of the big boys, who will simply stop them from playing without any great difficulty. Vilnius can defend well enough, though, and aren’t without an attacking threat; I just doubt that we’ll get the option to see Grigalevicius and co. without some major mistakes from Kruoja.
So, as per usual, I expect a dour and low-scoring A Lyga game. Kruoja won’t push it and Vilnius would take a draw. For me, 5/6 on under 2.5 goals in this game is a bit of a steal.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Additional games
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game between German giants Bayern Munich and Spanish giants Real Madrid. The line-ups alone are mouth-watering and I’m hoping for a good game to boot!
For me, Bayern Munich are a bit of a let-down. They’re a huge club with great support and a massive history so I respect them a lot. Nowadays, though, you kind of get the impression that the old spirit has been replaced by a team of individuals. Perhaps that’s a bit unfair; the likes of Schweinsteiger show their tenacity and loyalty in every game that they wear the Bayern shirt. What I mean is that the likes of Ribery are here to make money and won’t be the ones that you see battling on when the chips are down. When they play as a unit, Bayern are absolutely superb, as they demonstrated against Hoffenheim a few weeks ago. When Bayern are divided, they’re an average side that would lose a game like this comfortably. Which Bayern are we to see here? I couldn’t tell you, to be honest.
What I can tell you is that Bayern have enough attacking power to upset Real Madrid here. Madrid’s defence is by far their weakest area, primarily because they pay no attention to it. The likes of Ribery, Robben, and Muller can do lots of damage here, so much so that even lumbering Gomez can score goals in this game. Let’s face it – goalscoring is not a problem for Bayern against a side that will leave gaps. Bayern must win this game or they’re out, as far as I am concerned. Few sides win at the Bernabeu and I doubt Bayern will be able to be the exception.
Can Madrid win here? Of course they can; it just depends which Bayern they face. Ronaldo can win any game for Madrid and he’ll naturally be pivotal here. Madrid’s away form in the past few Champions League games that they’ve played has disappointed me, I must confess. There’s too many wayward finishes, really. It took them ages to break through APOEL Nicosia despite dominating the game and they didn’t finish CSKA Moscow off at all. To top that off, Madrid have looked dubious of late. Efficient, but dubious – that’s the way I’d put it.
Will Madrid win here? I’ve no idea. It really does depend who is up for it and who isn’t. We have two sides here that can be amazing or can be disappointing but are rarely anything in between. Mourinho’s side is far more efficient when it comes to winning games and that’s why I’d favour them here. They have a better class of player than Bayern although Bayern have more steel so again, it depends which of these two sides approaches this game correctly.
However, for me, the only way to approach the game is with goals. I can’t see Bayern not scoring at home against a shitty Madrid defence. Similarly, I can’t see a superb Madrid side not scoring goals against a questionable Bayern defence. There’s enough flair and brilliance on the field for one of these two sides to win it and Bayern realistically need to. For me, all of the above makes taking over 2.5 goals look a good choice at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Suduva Marijampole vs Atlantas – under 3.5 goals at 7/5.
This game follows in the same vein as the tip of the day but with a lot more risk.
Why is there more risk? Well, Suduva are one of the best sides in Lithuania and Atlantas are one of the weakest in the division. I think that’s enough to concern most of you but for those who dare, read on!
Suduva are playing the best football in Lithuania this season and it’s no surprise with a terrifying trio of Ledesma, Luksys, and Beniusis up front, not to mention the emerging Eliosius sat behind them! Suduva will win most of their games this season and I expect this to be yet another win for them. However, will it be as easy as the bookies suggest? I’m not so sure.
Look, I’m not going to try and make the point that Atlantas aren’t crap because they are. Hell, they lost this game 13-0 last season! However, they’ve shown improvement lately and that improvement has given them momentum. They’re going to come to Marijampole to park the bus and of late they’ve looked decent at it. They’re still a weak side but perhaps the return of their old president has inspired them. I mean, he does want them to become a good side eventually (can I get a “lol”?) and perhaps the promise of improving the team is either inspiring the players or making them fear for their places. Who knows? All I know is that Atlantas are currently presenting a much more united front than normal and it’s worthwhile being wary of that fact.
Suduva have been playing a little within themselves since Zalgiris thrashed them 4-0. The scoreline flattered the Vilnius outfit but Suduva have produced two below-par displays since then. Yes, they’ve won both games, but not as convincingly as they would have done at the start of the season.
Conclusion? I think we’ll see a home win here. No, in fact, I know we’ll see a home win here because that gulf in class is just too huge. However, I think Atlantas have enough momentum and confidence at the moment to keep the scoreline relatively respectable. Therefore, I’m going to take under 3.5 goals at long odds of 7/5 with a hope that Atlantas will maintain their momentum and that Suduva will continue to play slightly within themselves. Again, do bet on this one with caution, though – if Suduva decide to make it 10-0 then it will be 10-0!!
Verdidt: Under 3.5 goals at 7/5.
Team news
UEFA Champions League:
Bayern Munich – Breno and van Buyten are absent.
Real Madrid – No absentees.
Bulgarian A PFG:
Botev Vratsa – Kostadinov, Kokonov, and Rangelov are absent. Petrov and Valeriev return.
Lokomotiv Sofia – Petkov is absent.
Vidma-Rakovski – No absentees.
Beroe – Akalski is absent.
English Championship:
Hull City – Hobbs, McLean, and Dudgeon are absent. King is a doubt.
Barnsley – Steele, Butterfield, Edwards, Golbourne, and Done are absent.
Blackpool – Bednar and Southern are absent.
Leeds United – Rodgers, Brown, and Thompson are absent.
Bristol City – Pitman, Cisse, Nyatanga, Wilson, Elliott, and Clarkson are absent.
West Ham United – O’Brien is a doubt.
Ipswich Town – Bullard and Wright are absent.
Birmingham City – Myhill, N’Daw, Fahey, Spector, Carr are absent. Mutch is a doubt.
Brighton & Hove Albion – Elphick is absent.
Watford – Mariappa is absent.
Middlesbrough – Bates and Williams are absent.
Doncaster Rovers – Diouf, Beye, Woods, Stock, and Bamogo are absent.
Portsmouth – Ben Haim and Kanu are absent.
Crystal Palace – Jedinak, Williams, and Gardner are absent. Dikgacoi is a doubt.
Coventry City – Christie, Cameron, Wood, Hreidarsson, and Baker are absent.
Millwall – Racon, Mildenhall, and Mkandawire are absent.
Leicester City – Danns is absent.
Burnley – Rodriguez and Paterson are absent.
Peterborough United – Zakuani is absent.
Southampton – Lee, Connolly, and Schneiderlin are absent.
Reading – Karacan, Connolly, Anderson, Tabb are absent. Robson-Kanu is a doubt.
Nottingham Forest – Moussi is a doubt.
Cardiff City – Conway is absent.
Derby County – Brayford is absent.
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Kruoja Pakruojis – Veliulis and Slavickas are absent. Strockis and Pocevicius are doubts. Game played in Panevezys.
Vilnius – Grigalevicius returns.
Suduva Marijampole – Radzius is absent.
Atlantas – No news.