TFT Issue 379!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Orebro vs Elfsborg Boras – away win at 6/5.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan game between Orebro and Elfsborg Boras.
The artificial turf at the Behrn Arena favours nobody as both sides use artificial turf at their respective stadiums and that’s a blow for Orebro here as they need all the help that they can get today.
I’ve mentioned lately that Orebro had the core of their midfield ripped out when they sold Bedoya and Gerzic, which is perfectly true. However, they did make a wise move by signing experienced Tobias Grahn in midfield and he’s been a staple part of the team ever since he signed for Orebro from Mjallby Solvesborg. He’s helped stop the rot in midfield and thus he’s rapidly becoming an integral part of the team. Bad news, though – he misses today’s game, which is a huge blow. Amusingly enough, the Swedish battleaxe is already suspended after playing just four games for his new club. In case you’re not familiar with him, Grahn has a nasty habit of being booked like…all the time. He’s picked up three yellow cards in four games(!) and subsequently he misses the big game with Elfsborg Boras. Could things get any worse for misfiring Orebro? Of course it could! Captain Wikstrom is also on the sidelines through suspension and considering that Orebro’s defence is woeful at best with Almeback’s replacement still yet to be found, Orebro keeping a clean sheet here should be viewed as something of a miracle. Additionally, Haddad is still out up front and emerging youngster Atashkadeh is a big doubt for today. The youngster has bagged three goals in four games and if he’s absent then God help Orebro because nobody else will. Rama and Daniel Bamberg can make something happen but Orebro are really in a bad place right now, especially with Brazilian striker Paulinho having been dropped until his issues with the club are resolved.
I like Elfsborg Boras a lot, especially as they make sense to me. They’re immense at home in the Allsvenskan but generally average/weak on the road. The usual reason that they’re poor on the road is that they tend to encounter natural turf away from home whilst they’re used to playing on artificial turf. It really does make a big difference ball control, anticipation, the bounce of the ball, the weight of the passes etc. and thus Elfsborg are only to be taken to win away from home in certain circumstances.
However, Elfsborg meet all of the criteria that I require them to in order for me to take them to win away from home today. They’ve got a few absentees but nobody of any consequence, in my opinion. The big inclusions are that of playmaker Svensson, strikers Nilsson and Elm, not to mention winger Hult and promising youngster Claesson. There’s lots of pace, creativity, and attacking power in this Elfsborg side and they have depth to back it up so I like to take them to win more often than not. Defensively, you can usually count on Elfsborg to concede a daft goal or two because that’s simply not their forté. However, they play ruthlessly efficient attacking football and have lots of options with which they can win games so I’ll give them the nod today, especially having seen the above information regarding Orebro.
I was considering over 2.5 goals to begin with, if I’m honest. Elfsborg like conceding stupid goals with bad defending and tend to produce below-par displays on the road. However, Orebro are in such a bad place right now that I cannot help but take Elfsborg to win this game at 6/5, especially with some of the best attacking players in the league in their side.
Verdict: Elfsborg Boras to win at 6/5.
Additional games
OB Odense vs AGF Aarhus – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
OB Odense are a joke right now and they can’t wait for the current Superligaen campaign to end. Fortunately, they did just enough earlier in the season to avoid the drop because if they were in the battle right now then they’d be the side going down. This side has no leader, no defence, no composure, limited experience, and no determination. Star striker Utaka departed to play for Dalian Shide in China back in January, which is someone that they’ve yet to replace. Big Morten Skoubo is on their books to do the target man job without being especially good but even he’s out today. Essential attacking midfielder Johansson misses out and his fellow midfielder Andreassen is a big doubt too. OB Odense are a big name but they’re nothing more than that with a complete absence of…well, everything. They’re complete bottlers and with no motivation, I fail to see the capability for them to do well here, especially with no recognised goalscorer available today.
AGF Aarhus are arguably the most boring side in the Superligaen but hey, who are we to criticise? Whatever works for them is good and let’s face it – they’ve done enough to avoid the drop so fair play to them. They’ve drawn more Superligaen games than any other side this season because they prioritise not losing over trying to win the game and again, that works for them. I mean, seriously – when was the last time that a side got promoted and lost just three away games in their first season back in the Superligaen? Hell, they’ve only lost one away game since September 2011 and that was their last match at Silkeborg! They’re real battlers, AGF, and they’re extremely well-organised. They lack potency but there’s so much experience in there that you have to give them some faith ahead of this potentially tricky game against under-performing OB Odense. Soren Larsen and Peter Graulund are predictable strikers but they’ve been around; they know how to take their chances. If AGF score the first goal then they won’t attack again. If they concede, then they’ll equalise and then sit back – that’s their style.
With the above in mind, I have to consider taking under 2.5 goals at 4/5. OB Odense have no cohesion, no determination, and no attack today. AGF are very well-organised and don’t ship goals easily. This game really shouldn’t have many goals, in my eyes, hence the selection.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
HJK Helsinki vs Jaro Pietarsaari – away win with +1.5 handicap at 9/10.
HJK are 3/10 in their second home game of the season? Wow, some bookies haven’t been monitoring the pre-season events, nor their recent displays!!
Look, I’ve said many times that HJK are a good squad and I’ll continue to say that. They’ve got depth, a big fanbase, a quick artificial turf that is a nightmare to play on, and better players than most other clubs in the Veikkausliiga. However…you wouldn’t know how good this side is based on what we’ve seen thus far.
They hosted IFK Mariehamn in their first Veikkausliiga game. They were highly unconvincing and were heading for a surprise defeat (or draw at best) based on their display. IFK were finding it far too easy to defend against a predictable HJK attack and only a miracle from emerging wonderkid Pohjanpolo won the game 3-1 for HJK, which really flattered the hosts! After that, HJK were well and truly “found out” as they took on a galvanised and much-improved TPS Turku, being flattened 3-1 in a game that they could easily have shipped five or six goals in. HJK still provided an offensive threat but nowhere near as much as we’ve grown accustomed to.
Is it any wonder, though? So many big players left for them pre-season and although they’ve signed adequate replacements, it does take time for them to blend into a squad. Muurinen is still training Seb Sorsa how to play at right-back (he’s a winger!) to replace Rafinha, which tells you how hard the per-season was for HJK. There are still individuals in the HJK side that can win this game and if we’re honest, HJK really should win the game. However, if anyone is taking them to win this game at 3/10 then they’re a complete mug because they’re frankly not worth that right now.
Eremenko Snr. is a great man-motivator, which is the primary reason that Jaro are still in the division. Well, that and an impressive attacking line did the business for Jaro last season. You won’t find many displays from Jaro that aren’t committed, which I feel is important in games like these. Jaro aren’t particularly secure defensively but they’ve always got that shock factor that allows them to upset the odds and I think that they can do that here. True, they lost Zeze and Sirbiladze pre-season, which damages their offensive power, but Niang is still there. When he’s not busy being sent off, he’s a good striker with pace and power, two things that HJK really struggled with against TPS Turku. Agyeman can provide the bullets for Niang to fire and there are experienced heads in this Jaro side.
Jaro were not outplayed by MyPa in their opening game, contrary to what the result may suggest. In my eyes, it was more of a MyPa realising that they’d need to win as many home games as possible this season to avoid relegation to the Ykkonen rather than Jaro not being good enough to beat them. In some ways, this is an easier game for Jaro to play in because it’s far easier to motivate your players against the big sides and they don’t come much bigger than HJK in Finland. I think Jaro are going to make life hard for HJK today and the opportunity is definitely there for them to upset the odds.
Lastly, HJK are suffering with injury problems ahead of this game, the full extent of which you can see below in the Team News listing. I think the odds are all wrong here, especially based on what we’ve seen from HJK thus far this season. I’ve no doubt that they will improve at some point but I’d be surprised to see it happen today without massive help from Jaro. Additionally, barring the 6-0 win for HJK last season, Jaro have been something of a “bogey side” for the hosts and with a HJK old boy at the helm, that’s not really a surprise. In my view, 9/10 on Jaro with a +1.5 handicap is a bit of a steal today although you can expect odds to drop on HJK today (as they always do in Veikkausliiga games) because uninformed people/chronic gamblers will blindly back HJK here, which is the wrong choice whether HJK win or not. Approach this one with caution, though – HJK are the better of these two sides by some distance; I just don’t think that they’re ready to show it yet.
One final point – please do not pay any attention to odds movement on Finnish games. Too many people do that and I understand it because it means a lot in most leagues but it almost never does in Finland. Hardly anyone knows anything about this league and the information available is scarce so I’d always be dubious about fluctuating odds, especially in the case of Inter Turku’s game yesterday, for example, which went exactly as planned.
Verdict: Jaro Pietarsaari to win with a +1.5 handicap at 9/10.
BK Hacken Goteborg vs IFK Goteborg – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
The Allsvenskan table tells you to take Hacken with draw no bet here but I can’t agree with that.
Hacken have started the season in pretty good fashion. They need to work on their consistency but they’ve done surprisingly well without Ranegie leading their line, scoring goals for fun and upsetting the odds. The thing is with Hacken is that they’re very hot-and-cold, in my view. They can’t defend for shit as their defence is predominantly old and/or slow. Their attack is pure dynamite with Makondele and emerging hotshot Waris and that makes Hacken very hard to play against. Indeed, this derby match means a lot to them, especially against illustrious local rivals IFK. However, they’re not the most reliable of sides when they’re under pressure to perform; they play far better as underdogs. Hacken can knock the ball around nicely and create plenty of chances but Hacken keeping a clean sheet is a pretty rare thing nowadays.
IFK Goteborg are the better of these two sides but that doesn’t matter much in a derby. Indeed, it doesn’t matter much at all when your luck is as rotten as IFK’s is at the moment. I’ve lost count of the number of bad decisions/individual mistakes that have cost them points this season! However, one thing that does remain for them is their underlying quality and they’re absolutely due a result in the near future so why not today? The pressure is lessened as they’re away from home and they’re not playing well so this is the type of game that IFK could very well win. Let’s face it – on paper, IFK possess one of the top three sides in the Allsvenskan so they’re not a side to underestimate. However, their new players are taking time to bed into their squad and their defence is lacking in cohesion and other sides are exploiting that. Hacken are good enough to upset IFK but similarly IFK are good enough to beat Hacken.
Therefore, I think you’re absolutely insane if you take either side to win this game. History shows that the results between these two are rather random. However, what history also shows is that this derby tends to include goals and plenty of them. I think we’ll see plenty of goals in this one too, with two sides struggling with their respective defensive issues but both boasting strong attacks. Therefore, I have to consider 5/6 on over 2.5 goals as a good bet today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Malmo FF vs Syrianska Sodertalje – under 2.5 goals at evens.
Two consecutive wins in very difficult games (Kalmar FF at home and in-form Djurgarden away) have brought Malmo back to life, right? Malmo are back, baby! Right? Not for me.
As I mentioned in my preview of Malmo vs Kalmar FF, I would only take Malmo when the pressure is off or when they’re the underdogs. In my eyes, the home game with Syrianska today is the typical game that Malmo would fuck up in.
Now, I’m open to being proven wrong and I’m not going to lie to you – Malmo are a couple of classes above Syrianska so they really should win this game. However, Malmo only break down stubborn defensive sides if their attacking players feel up for it, which is a hit-and-miss thing in itself. Ranegie, Larsson, Wilton, Durmaz, Hamad – these are all really, really good attacking players. If Malmo achieve anything this season then it will be because of those five players. However, Malmo struggle to motivate themselves for games like these and I think they’ll struggle. I mean, Malmo got the break-through against Kalmar and did the job against Djurgarden but what do both of those two sides have in common? They both attacked Malmo and Malmo love that; they’re absolutely immense on the counter-attack. They won’t have the same game today, though – Syrianska don’t care about winning here.
Syrianska are an odd side. They’re very highly-motivated for games against the big boys and Malmo are one of the biggest in Sweden so I expect them to work hard in this game. Importantly, Syrianska have bags of experience in their team and that makes it easier for them to frustrate a side like Malmo, superior though they unquestionably are.
Syrianska got battered at newly-promoted GIF Sundsvall lately because they weren’t properly motivated and conceded a daft early goal. Look how well they played against AIK Solna and IFK Goteborg, though – they really pick themselves up for games like these, as I mentioned in the above paragraph. Just take a look at their results from last season against the big sides:
Malmo 1 Syrianska 0 – 17/10/11
Syrianska 2 Kalmar 1 – 11/09/11
AIK 1 Syrianska 0 – 28/08/11
Syrianska 0 Elfsborg 2 – 21/08/11
Syrianska 1 Helsingborg 2 – 07/08/11
IFK Goteborg 3 Syrianska 0 – 10/07/11
Syrianska 1 IFK Goteborg 2 – 02/07/11
Elfsborg 2 Syrianska 1 – 27/06/11
Syrianska 0 Malmo 0 – 08/05/11
Kalmar 2 Syrianska 0 – 01/05/11
Helsingborg 1 Syrianska 0 – 22/04/11
As you can quite clearly see, Syrianska were an absolute nightmare to face for all the big sides, each one needing to grind out a win or not even managing to do that. The only result that would indicate otherwise was their 3-0 defeat at IFK Goteborg although nothing could be further from the truth as IFK needed three late goals to take advantage of the fact that Syrianska had ten men on the field following Miller’s dismissal.
Basically, these games are cup finals for Syrianska. No big side enjoys playing Syrianska and Malmo are one of the main culprits when looking for big sides that struggle against Syrianska with these two sides generally producing low-scoring games.
Importantly, ex-AIK winger Sharbel Touma returns for this game for Syrianska. There are numerous players on the “doubtful” list for Syrianska today but some of it will be the usual mind games, especially as nobody has actually confirmed who is out and who isn’t. I think Syrianska will have enough experience to piss Malmo off today although probably not enough to actually score themselves, unless Malmo help them out in that department. Syrianska do have a thin squad but their usual starting eleven is strong enough to upset big sides.
For me, this is the perfect Malmo game in the sense that they should fall upon their own swords today. I may be proven horribly wrong and again, Malmo are by far the better side from these two. However, I’m going to bravely take under 2.5 goals as I expect Syrianska to take advantage of the fact that Malmo are not a galvanised unit at the moment and that they’re not great at breaking through stubborn defences.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Team news
Bulgarian A PFG:
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Spasov and Venkov are absent.
Slavia Sofia – Dimitrov is absent.
Kaliakra – No absentees.
Levski Sofia – Miliev and Pinto are absent. Tasevski and Gadzhev return.
Danish Superligaen:
OB Odense – A.Johansson is absent. Skoubo and H.Andreassen are doubts.
AGF Aarhus – No news.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
HJK Helsinki – Sorsa, Lindstrom, Lod, Savage, and Hakanpaa are doubts. Asraf may debutise.
Jaro Pietarsaari – Aho, Brunell, and Haanpaa are absent.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Molde FK – Stensild is absent. Eikrem is a doubt.
Lillestrom – Sundgot and Gulbrandsen are absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
LKS Lodz – Szczot, Adamski, Gieraga, Salski, Mieciel, and Wyparlo are absent. Papikyan is a doubt.
Korona Kielce – Korzym and Stano are absent. Kielb is a doubt.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Academica de Coimbra – Orlando, Diogo Gomes, Pape Sow, Eder, and Abdoulaye are absent.
Olhanense – Vinha is absent. Duarte returns.
Romanian Liga:
FC Brasov – Iljoski is absent. Bruno Madeira, Di Stefano, and Enceanu are doubts. New boss Badea, formerly of Universitatea Cluj.
Universitatea Cluj – Matache, Grecu, S.Achim, Pacurar, and L.Marinescu are absent.
Targu Mures – Vasilache is absent.
Sportul Studentesc – Serban and Lung are absent.
Gaz Metan Medias – Portnojs, Trtovac, del Campo, Litu, and Bud are absent.
Pandurii Targu Jiu – Ad.Rusu, Pleasca, Bacila, and R.Dumitru are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Osasuna – Raul Garcia, Balde, Masoud, Kike Sola, Sergio, and Echaide are absent. Bertran returns.
Malaga – Juanmi, Recio, Caballero, Baptista, Toulalan, and Mathijsen are absent. Kameni, Joaquin, and Duda return.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
BK Hacken Goteborg – No news.
IFK Goteborg – Larsson and Dyrestam are absent. Waehler returns.
Malmo FF – No news.
Syrianska Sodertalje – Touma returns. Chanko, Miller, Felic, Saleh, Demir, Massi, and Sleyman are doubts.
Orebro – Haddad, Berisha, Antonen, Grahn, and Wikstrom are absent. Saeid and Atashkaden are doubts.
Elfsborg Boras – M.Andersson, S.Larsson, and Klarstrom are absent. Augustsson, Mobaeck, and Stuhr-Ellegaard return.