TFT Issue 38!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
The bin
Salzburg vs SV Mattersburg – under 2.5 goals at 21/20.
I still like the call but I don’t have the team news to back it up, unfortunately. Salzburg have really struggled to score goals against any class of opposition lately and Mattersburg are a big, physical side. Mattersburg don’t travel well but they’ll be a hard opponent to beat if you’re not playing well, which Salzburg aren’t. Unders looks favourable here but I’ll withdraw until I can see line-ups etc.
Double chance
1X for:
Racing Club Avellaneda
Lokeren
Kortrijk
Universidad de Chile
Huachipato
Slovan Liberec
Lorient
Paksi SE
Vitesse Arnhem
Nacional Asuncion
Porto
Piast Gliwice
Slovan Bratislava
MSK Zilina
Maribor
Koper
Granada
Featured game
Today’s featured game is the Ligue 1 encounter in France between Lorient and AS Nancy-Lorraine. I’ve backed Lorient innumerate times before at home and the same reasoning still applies here too, unsurprisingly!
I think it’s fair to say that Lorient are rapidly becoming my favourite team in shitty France! Their home advantage of the artificial turf works wonders as it unsettles opposing sides massively – just look at Girondins de Bordeuax, who were torn a new one during a 5-1 defeat at Lorient lately despite defence being Bordeaux’s strongest area. Lorient have actually won eight out of twelve home games in Ligue 1 this season whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per home game, which is largely due to the massively in-form Gameiro. The differences between him and Gourcuff appear behind them now as the two stroll on in harmony with Lorient as a whole reaping the benefits. You wouldn’t believe that this side lost a good defender like Koscielny last season without even noticing it either – Lorient have miraculously kept their goals conceded ratio down to just over a goal per every two home games. This side epitomises the term “home team” with strong advantages in their favour when playing on their own turf and that shouln’t have changed for today’s game.
Nancy aren’t a bad side themselves and do enjoy scoring their token goal per away game. The reason that they struggle though, especially on the road, is because they concede too many goals. They average conceding nearly two goals per away game and that tends to be a rather fatal approach to any away game, hence Nancy’s decline in the Ligue 1 table. It doesn’t help that Nancy aren’t on a great run of form either with six defeats in their last seven Ligue 1 games, shipping an average of over two goals per game. This record is simply not good enough to take to Lorient nowadays and they really should be burned here.
I don’t understand why the bookies keep pricing Lorient so generously at home. I know they’re not a great side but they’re a solid side at home and consistently prove it. With the above in mind, I see no reason for that record to fail to continue today so my call is the home win at 4/5.
Team news – AS Nancy-Lorraine miss Alo’o Efoulou, Bracigliano, Chahechouhe, N’Diaye, and Haidara.
Verdict: Lorient to win at 4/5.
Additional games
Widzew Lodz vs Korona Kielce – over 2.5 goals at 7/5.
This is a risky call as the odds clearly indicate but it’s one I like a lot nonetheless.
Widzew Lodz have been hard to beat on their own turf this season despite having only just been promoted. This is largely due to their enthusiastic displays and potency in front of goal, something that they’ve not lost over the winter break either. Only league leaders Jagiellonia Bialystok have scored more goals than Widzew Lodz have at home in the Ekstraklasa this season so give the hosts their due respect here. Defensively, they are a vulnerable side and Korona are good enough to exploit that today. However, Widzew look a real threat with Lithuanian attacker Sernas in great form and promising players like Finland’s Riku Riski ready to be called into action whenever required so I think we’ll see Widzew’s usual approach at home here – gung-ho!
Initially, you could be forgiven for thinking that Korona Kielce are over-achieving this season and you’d be partially correct. However, I’d attribute that to the big Ekstraklasa sides failing to produce the goods on a regular basis thus far due to varying reasons and also to Korona’s excellent movements in the transfer market. They swooped to pick up Ruch Chorzow’s Niedzielan when they saw Ruch having financial difficulties and he’s bagged nine goals in twelve appearances for his new club. Niedzielan has been around; he knows how to score in the Ekstraklasa. Previously, he was accompanied by ex-Legia Warsaw attacker Korzym but the creative attacker wasn’t really scoring enough goals so Korona shocked the Polish tabloids by swooping to sign another ex-Legia Warsaw product – Dawid Janczyk. A couple of years ago, he was dubbed as the most exciting prospect in Polish football and it was thus no surprise that CSKA Moscow signed him. However, an unsuccessful stint with the Russian giants saw him loaned around Europe until he finally found his way home, bizarrely enough to Korona. His lightning pace matched up with Niedzielan’s know-how is an impressive weapon and with that signing, I really don’t think we’ve seen the last of Korona Kielce this season. Defensively, they can still improve too, much like their hosts. However, the fact that they’ve lost just twice in eight Ekstraklasa away games this season whilst winning four times and playing very well throughout should be seen as a warning and I think there’s actually a good chance of them taking three points here, especially with no Ekstraklasa side having scored more away goals than they have this season.
All in all, I think we’re in for a bit of a goal-fest here. Widzew aren’t good enough to sit back and hold Korona off here so I expect both sides to go for it, believing that they both can win. Although overs are very hard to call in the Ekstraklasa, this one appears far too generously priced with the above in mind, especially with Korona still missing their supposedly Amkar Perm-bound Serbian defender Mijailjovic.
Team news – Widzew Lodz miss Nakoluma, Radhia, and Ostrowski whereas Korona Kielce miss Maliszewski, Mijajlovic, and Lisowski.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 7/5.
Nomme Kalju vs Flora Tallinn – lay Flora Tallinn at 27/20.
I waxed lyrical about Flora Tallinn a few days ago and although my preview was correct, they regrettably failed to deliver against bitter rivals Levadia Tallinn, eventually needing a penalty shootout to win the Super Cup.
However, the above leads me into this bet as Flora Tallinn have just played 120 minutes of football just a couple of days ago so they’re going to be tired here. The other side of the coin is that Nomme Kalju have been really astute in the transfer market pre-season, bringing in enough quality to be above the rapidly declining Levadia Tallinn, in my view. Their attack now not only contains leading goalscorer Jevdokimov from last season but also ex-Levadia Tallinn pisshead striker Neemelo, not to mention ex-Flora Tallinn attacker Viikmae! This is arguably the best attack in Estonia, in my view, and that should show today. They’ve also captured playmaker Eino Puri from Levadia Tallinn and are supposdly trying to add a defender to their ranks before the season starts but have been unable to do so for the present time, which does leave their defence a little vulnerable here.
Nonetheless, you can see my point here! Flora are the best side in Estonia at the moment; that cannot be ignored. However, they’re playing what I would personally call the second-best side in Estonia at the moment and the bookies’ odds appear far too much based on last season’s displays for them to be correct. I don’t think a tired Flora will have it all their own way here and if they failed to score against a very depleted Levadia side a few days ago then they can struggle again versus Nomme Kalju here too.
Nomme are going to need to take their chances in this game for the bet to come in but the odds are good enough to take a chance on here, although I would give you all a bit of a caution here as Nomme Kalju are actually playing this game at Flora’s ground due to the weather!
Verdict: Lay Flora Tallinn at 27/20.
Nurnberg vs St.Pauli – home win at 5/6.
These are unbelievably good odds on a Nurnberg side that has beaten far better sides than St.Pauli at home already this season. Just look at their record – eight wins from twelve Bundesliga home games! Nobody has won more home games in the Bundesliga this season than Nurnberg and although a few can match their excellent record, I still think they deserve massive praise. They average scoring nearly two goals per home game and are on a great run of form, winning four times and drawing twice in their last six Bundesliga games. During that run, they’ve beaten both Hamburger SV and and Eintracht Frankfurt comfortably at home, not to mention the 1-4 punishment they dished out on VfB Stuttgart away from home! They claimed two valuable away draws at in-form SC Freiburg and at sleeping giants Schalke 04 along the way so this isn’t a fluke; they’re playing really good football and reaping the benefits of it.
Where is their success coming from? Well, for me, it’s their midfield, especially arising talent Gundogan. The support from him for the likes of Schieber has proven invaluable, especially with the likes of Cohen, Hegeler, Judt, and Simons alongside him in midfield. Unfortunately, the hosts are missing leading goalscorer Scrieber for this game but to be honest, Nurnberg’s strength isn’t their attackers so they should be able to replace him here. As long as their midfield does what they normally do then another Nurnberg win looks probable here.
Visitors St.Pauli are one of the weakest sides in the Bundesliga, in my view, and it’s not the first time that I’ve said it either. They work very hard and will make the odd surprise result against sides that don’t match their grit and determination but when they are matched on that front, they tend to simply be outclassed, which is what I expect here. They battled hard at Dortmund and had nothing to show for it as they were outclassed and lost 2-0. They battled hard against Hannover 96 in their last home game and were out-thought tactically, conceding a late goal to lose 0-1. St.Pauli, to be horribly blunt, don’t have the firepower nor the experience to stay in the Bundesliga this season, in my view, so they’re really going to struggle against a weathered and strong Nurnberg team today, especially with six defeats in eleven Bundesliga away games already this season.
Happily, to counter Nurnberg’s striker absence, St.Pauli miss arguably their best defender – Oczipka – and their best striker Asamoah for this game. For me, there’s nothing for St.Pauli in this game and if they were travelling to face one of the other side who have already won eight home games this season i.e. Bayern Munich then do you think you’d get as generous odds as Nurnberg have today? Not likely! You’d be lucky to get 2/5 on Bayern winning this game and with the above in mind, you can see why I think Nurnberg are a steal at 5/6.
Team news – Nurnberg miss Batz, Ochs, Bieler, Judt, Sauter, Ben Khalifa, Bunjaku, and Schieber whereas St.Pauli miss Morena, Oczipka, Rothenbach, Herber, Schultz, and Asamoah.
Verdict: Nurnberg to win at 5/6.
Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Prague – home win at 6/5.
Same old, same old! Slavia Prague have no team left anymore, barring Kisel in midfield. Ok, they were maybe a little unfortunate not to overcome Brno in their last match but it does highlight their lack of firepower and it’s a massive problem for them. I really fear for Slavia’s survival in the Gambrinus Liga – they’ve not got any midfield left barring Kisel, they look susceptible in defence, and they haven’t got any good goalscorers. They work hard but when they face a good side like Liberec, they’re going to struggle. Admittedly, Liberec lost their derby with Jablonec 3-0 last match and that’s going to hurt them, although not as much as the departure of star striker Keric to Sparta Prague will have done. However, Slovan at home and Slovan away are very different sides as Slovan playing Liberec score goals and attack well, which is what I expect today. They’re going to need a lot from experienced duo Stajner and Nezmar but to be honest, I rate Slavia’s current side very poorly indeed so I have little concerns here.
Slavia don’t have a great record at Liberec as it is, even from when they were a good side, and that’s because they’re a tough side to face away from home. I see no reason to think that their current poor crop will fare any better here and let’s face it – the odds are remarkably generous, even though Slovan have parted with Keric, especially given the lack of quality and depth in the Slavia side here – it’s like the bookies think that they’re just in a bit of a rut at the moment! As we all know, however, that’s not the case – Slavia are in a really bad way – so the home win looks generously priced at 6/5 to me.
Verdict: Slovan Liberec to win at 6/5.
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla – home win at 4/5.
Football in Colombia is all about cycles. I suppose you could say that all football leagues are but this is particularly evident in Colombia where most of the sides in the Primera A have actually won the division at somepoint. Atletico Nacional are one of the bigger names in the Primera A but faded after their crop of talent had left (i.e. Perea, de la Cuesta) and they had to rebuild. Last season was the one they used to cement their place in the standings and to practice containing sides and if their signings are anything to go by then it’s this season where we’ll see their flair return. They’ve snapped up Renteria from La Equidad Bogota and playmaker Torres from Colo Colo so they mean business and have demonstrated that with their excellent home form already this season, beating America de Cali and giants Once Caldas Manizales comfortably, although we’ll conveniently overlook their blip on the opening day of the current campaign when they lost 2-3 against a poor Envigado side! Now that the side has settled down, they look cool, composed, and in control. It’s hard to play them in Medellin as it is but with such strength in depth and potency in front of goal, Atletico are a side to be feared at the moment.
Their opponents tonight, Atletico Junior Barranquilla, are a good side too, however. They’ve been very convincing themselves this season after signing most of Independiente Medellin’s defence – who will not be welcomed with open arms by the fans of Independiente Medellin’s bitter rivals Atletico Nacional de Medellin! – and by being rather shrewd and calculating with their tactics. They’re not an easy side to play against and even Gremio from Brazil found that in the Copa Libertadores so don’t underestimate them here. However, there is one particular feature which should hopefully count against them here and that’s fatigue. This is Junior’s fourth game in nine days and I just don’t see them having the depth or energy to get a result off a very good Atletico side here, especially not with a frankly more important trip to Bolivia to face Oriente Petrolero looming large.
I think Junior will rest players here and if they don’t then they’ll be fielding tired players so I think that the home win is worth a shot here whilst at 4/5 – I’d leave it if the odds drop as both sides can usually go toe-to-toe quality-wise.
Verdict: Atletico Nacional de Medellin to win at 4/5.