TFT Issue 381!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Elfsborg Boras vs GAIS Goteborg – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan game between Elfsborg Boras and GAIS Goteborg.
The Boras Arena is one of those stadiums where the only side that ever seems to win there is the hosts themselves. The artificial turf plays a big part in that, of course, but Elfsborg are one of the most consistent sides when it comes to taking their chances. The last few years has been littered with prolific and reliable goalscorers for Elfsborg, the most notable of which was probably Denni Avdic. Nowadays, the buck stops with the strong Elm and the dynamic Nilsson and they make a pretty impressive duo!
I always used to associate Nilsson with a forward that tended to drift out to the flanks more often than not, to try and use his pace and skill more. Elfsborg use him in a much more central role and he’s looked very good for it, in my eyes. His experience is very useful to them and if we’re totally honest, he’s too good to be playing Allsvenskan football. That said, I don’t see where he’d now go at this advanced stage of his career. Nonetheless, those two make a lethal attacking duo for Elfsborg, no matter who they face.
Most sides in the Allsvenskan have one strong area and you could be forgiven for thinking that this is Elfsborg’s only strong area but you’d be wrong with that assessment. Elfsborg also possess one of the best midfields in Sweden, too. I mean, Anders Svensson is absolutely timeless. Sure, his age means that he’s a tad more susceptible to injuries and prone to needing a rest more often but he still dominates this division when he plays. He’s the best playmaker still playing in Sweden; let’s put it that way. Additionally, we have Hult and Claesson using their great pace and skill down the flanks, which makes Elfsborg even more lethal. Hult is occasionally short on composure, particularly when it comes to shooting, but he’s a good worker and a vital part of the Elfsborg attack. Claesson is really starting to demonstrate his promise and I think we’ll see more from him as the season wears on. Look at who we’ve not even looked at, though – Jorgensen, Larsson, Hiljemark, and Ishizaki! Those players are also very, very good. I don’t know if you saw Ishizaki’s goal from the half-way line against Orebro last match but it was perfect technique and that demonstrates the kind of quality technical players that Elfsborg possess.
Defensively, Elfsborg can be vulnerable, particularly from set pieces. It’s dangerous to bet on this side keeping a clean sheet for the vast majority of the time because Lennartsson’s side are all about attacking and scoring goals. At the moment, I’ve not seen another Allsvenskan side do it anywhere near as well as they do, either. They’ve not always been at their best this season, just like in the home game with Djurgarden. However, their experience and finesse saw them emerge as the winners and that’s a pretty powerful weapon to possess. They dominated Orebro away from home last time out and it’ll be a rare day when Elfsborg don’t outscore an opponent at the Boras Arena, which is effectively the foundation for this bet.
GAIS Goteborg are a bit of a funny side, really. For all the quality players that they’ve had or do currently have, they’re not a very entertaining side. It’d be a fair point for someone to say that Wanderson is the best attacker in the Allsvenskan and I really couldn’t disagree with that. It’s more than clear where his loyalty lies, too, having kissed the badge following his absolute screamer against IFK Norrkoping in GAIS’ last match.
Indeed, that’s the big problem with GAIS Goteborg. They may be able to keep clean sheets against lesser sides but they’re not especially good at defending, contrary to what their statistics suggest. There’s experience at the back but also a lack of pace and the right attack can exploit that.
In my eyes, GAIS were very lucky to get Celik back from Rangers this season because without him, their attack would be even more stale. Big Ijeh has experience and power but is he really a step forward for the club at 35? Not for me. He slows down their attacking speed and makes them rely even more on Wanderson. Romarinho and Ayarna can make things happen too but it’s not as lethal an attack as GAIS possessed last season. Benin striker Omotoyossi never really got the game time to show the form that he showed at Helsingborg alongside Henrik Larsson but he was a potent threat and one that sides wouldn’t underestimate. Martensson was a stronger part of GAIS’ attack than he was given credit for due to his ball-winning skills and battling qualities, not to mention his box-to-box movement and his reading of the game. He’s sorely missed from a creative and inspirational perspective for GAIS. Another one that they miss a lot is attacker Alvaro Santos, who complimented Celik well in the GAIS attack and again provided a threat that needed nullifying. GAIS are a selling club, though, so I guess we shouldn’t be too surprised with the lack of replacements for the afore-mentioned. All I’ll say is that they’re nowhere near as effective attack-wise as they once were.
Now, the statistics table shows that GAIS Goteborg have only scored a few goals this season. You could be forgiven for assuming that they play like Gefle, for example, trying to grind out the wins. That’s not really the case, to be honest – they’re not strong enough or focused enough to do that well. The problem that they’re having is creating and scoring chances from open play. GAIS have bagged four goals this season in five games and mirror the problems that they had in their pre-season friendlies perfectly. Three of those four goals by GAIS have either been exquisite shots or have required bad defending/goalkeeping. For example, Olsson’s goal against Atvidaberg was a lovely strike although it’s admittedly been surpassed by the excellent Wanderson with his thunderbolt against IFK Norrkoping last match. Ayarna got on the scoresheet too with a well-hit shot from distance but the goalkeeper was utterly immobile for that shot. All three of those goals were from well outside the box because GAIS aren’t doing the business from open play. Elfsborg might not be the most secure of sides at the back but barring some Wanderson magic, where will GAIS’ attacking threat come from? That’s the big question here and I don’t have an answer to it.
That’s why I think a ruthlessly efficient and lethal Elfsborg Boras side should win this game more comfortably than they should be allowed to. GAIS are a capable side when they want to be but they still seem to be missing a core to their team and an alternative to mighty Wanderson. Elfsborg are everything that GAIS aren’t, in my eyes. I can either see this game dragging on and Elfsborg bagging a goal toward the end of the game before having the opportunity to extend that lead or they could be attacked by GAIS, perhaps concede a goal, but easily score three or four themselves. Either way, taking Elfsborg to beat the -1 Asian Handicap really appeals to me at generous odds of 6/5.
Verdict: Elfsborg Boras to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
Additional game
Gefle vs AIK Solna – lay AIK Solna at 4/5.
I think it’s fair to say that Gefle are one of the weaker Allsvenskan sides this season. Their quality has been ebbing away, year after year, and this might finally be their last year in the Allsvenskan. However, that can only make them more determined to do well in their home games because they’re a notoriously bad travelling side!
They’ve been mostly reliable/consistent ths season, Gefle, albeit boring to watch. The only time that they’ve done something that I didn’t anticipate as being possible was when they had a real off-day by shipping six goals against newly-promoted Atvidaberg. Generally speaking, you know what you get with Gefle. They’re a big, physically strong, well-organised machine with plenty of team spirit. They’re short on quality, as I’ve said, but they do have good cohesion and that can serve them well against the right opposition. Indeed, that’s what got them an unexpected three points at Kalmar FF in their last game. They worked hard, deserved at least a draw, but helpfully a goalkeeping error from Berisha (again!) allowed Gefle to score. Giving Gefle a lead is a nightmarish thing to do because they’ll just park the bus more than ever. I can’t criticise Gefle, though – they have a gameplan and it’s effective, whether it’s entertaining or not. One thing is for sure – to beat them on the artificial turf here at Stromvallen requires a very good display, which AIK know all too well with two losses from their last three visits here.
Can AIK win this game? Well, yes – they can. They are a better side than Gefle and are good at dominating possession. Will they win the game? I don’t think so. AIK don’t lack in quality nor experienced players but what they do lack is creativity and a prolific goalscorer. Celso Borges is the one that is given the responsibility to make things happen and he’s good at it but he’s still new to Swedish football and to AIK Solna so he’s not operating at 100% capacity just yet. Aside from that, AIK don’t really have anyone to lead them in attack. They control the ball well, they defend extremely well, and will bore the shit out of any viewers. They’re simply not a goalscoring side, though! That’s not to say that they cannot score goals but more to say that they don’t do it anywhere near often enough to be given as short odds as they’re usually given, especially as they’ve still not replaced the two Banguras, who were both sold last season. Take the game against GIF Sundsvall last time out, for example. They’d have lost that game had defender Milosevic not scored a wonder strike from close to the half-way line! Mutumba’s goal against Kalmar FF was down to bad goalkeeping for Berisha and the list goes on, to be frank. Credit to AIK – when they get a lead, there’s always that sense that they can hold it because they’re good enough and well-organised enough to manage it. The problem is that they’re not very good at breaking through sides and that’s why they’ve especially struggled against sides that have “parked the bus” against them this season, such as Mjallby Solvesborg, and that’s precisely what I expect from Gefle today.
I was on the edge of taking my usual AIK bet (under 2 goals!) but decided against it because the hosts can score from set pieces and this is a big game for them, even at this early stage of the season. I expect Gefle to be motivated for it and as long as they maintain their shape and composure then I expect them to get something from the game, despite the fact that AIK are a superior side. For me, AIK are too short to win what can be a very difficult away game so my call is to lay AIK Solna at 4/5.
Verdict: Lay AIK Solna at 4/5.
Team news
UEFA Europa League:
Valencia CF – Banega is absent. Mathieu is a doubt.
Atletico Madrid – Antonio Lopez, Merida, Silvio, Assuncao, and Pizzi are absent.
Athletic Club de Bilbao – Ocio, Gurpegi, Castillo, and de Marcos are absent.
Sporting Clube de Lisboa – Rinaudo, Izmailov, Arias, Elias, and Rodriguez are absent.