TFT Issue 382!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
HiFK Helsinki vs KooTeePee Kotka – under 2.5 goals at evens.
Today’s featured game is the first game of the Ykkonen season between HiFK Helsinki and KooTeePee Kotka.
These two sides are polar opposites with KooTeePee being the better side but HiFK easily possessing the best supporters in the division. Indeed, I think you could make a case for HiFK avoiding relegation purely because of their fanatical fans in their home games because they’re not much to look at on paper! HiFK will always work hard, especially in their home games, but they’re in the shallow end of the Ykkonen quality sides pool and I think we’ll see that not only today but for the remainder of this season.
KooTeePee strengthened their squad pre-season and should be taken seriously in the push for promotion. Don’t get me wrong – PK-35 Helsinki look very strong this time around, as do RoPS Rovaniemi, AC Oulu, and newly-promoted SJK – but KooTeePee are good enough to put themselves into the ring. Although one of the less interesting/adventurous sides in the Ykkonen, KooTeePee are one of the sides that are capable of holding a lead and grinding out wins without playing well so always treat them with respect.
A lot of people are nailing the away win for this game and although I can understand that, especially given the mounting quality gap. However, KooTeePee had a mammoth game with Inter Turku in the Suomen Cup a few days ago and produced a splendid display to eventual dump out the blue-and-blacks of Turku but they needed extra-time to achieve it so we should see some tired legs today. Generally speaking, a half-arsed/tired KooTeePee display shouldn’t affect their reliable defence but may limit their ability to score goals more than ever.
However, I expect KooTeePee to dominate most of this game and given their approach to games and their ability to frustrate sides, I think taking under 2.5 goals at evens is a bit of a bargain here, especially with the friendly between these two sides in this stadium last month ending 0-0.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Additional games
Minior Pernik vs Chernomorets Burgas – away win at evens.
Minior Pernik may have relinquished their player strike against the Bulgarian FA but their players already look in holiday mode and thus I think that they’re in for a rough ride today. Minior Pernik tend to counter-attack sides and they’re pretty damn good it but it only tends to show in their away games en mass. Minior Pernik also tend to motivate themselves more for games against the big Sofia clubs rather than the others and that’s another reason why I don’t believe that the hosts will show up today. This game means a lot to Chernomorets, though, and although they’re usually unreliable on the road, they’ve looked strong of late and for the duration of this A PFG season. Therefore, I will give the Black Sea outfit the nod here as they’re playing good football, they bring strong momentum into this game, and nothing but a win will suffice for the visitors. The away win looks good value at evens to me.
Verdict: Chernomorets Burgas to win at evens.
Sparta Prague vs Sigma Olomouc – away win with +1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
Mm, I can’t really take Sparta Prague seriously here. Yes, they have far more to play for than Sigma Olomouc and they’re a better side but what I’ve seen from them of late simply doesn’t justify their odds. There’s a massive amount of pressure on the team following fan unrest and after a string of unimpressive displays, you can hardly blame them. The title is virtually beyond them with even boss Hasek admitting that if they don’t win this game then they’re out of the title race. A fine way to inspire a demoralised and lacking-in-confidence side, Hasek! Nice one! Although Sparta still have a few old hands (e.g. Sionko, Matejovsky) they do have some very young players and it’s clearly affecting them. Kadlec is unwell and won’t feature in this game, which leaves Sparta with hit-and-miss Kweuke to carry their attack. The Cameroonian hitman is a very capable player when he wants to be but whether he feels like it or not is very much a random point. Pamic will feature for the hosts after his red card was rescinded and thus on paper, Sparta are good enough to win this game. However, they’ve been good enough to win most of their games since returning from the winter break and yet have still failed. Bottling it much? I think so.
Sigma Olomouc may not need anything from this game but with boss Ulicny stating that his team would be playing to their absolute maximum today, you have to be wary of the underrated visitors. Sigma Olomouc have looked really good now that the pressure is off them. They’ve played some excellent free-flowing attacking football, scoring goals for fun along the way. Sigma will not lie down and take this, not with the momentum that they have leading them into this encounter. I fancy them to cause problems for their unconvincing hosts and the odds are very interesting on that occurring.
Sparta Prague could and realistically should win this game but I am not convinced. They’ve been piss-poor of late and the visitors are in a prime position to capitalise on that, which would be just in the nick of time too as it would demoralise their hosts if Sigma got a result here and that would set up the repeat fixture in the cup next week very nicely indeed if you’re a Sigma fan. Therefore, I’m left with no alternative but to consider giving Sigma a +1 Asian Handicap as a good value bet at 9/10.
Verdict: Sigma Olomouc to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
Paksi SE vs Budapest Honved – home win at 7/5.
I’ve not heard any team news for this game so be wary of how that could affect the outcome of this game.
That point aside, however, I still think the odds on Paksi winning this game are very appealing. I watched them destroy Debreceni VSC in their last home game, which somehow ended 0-0. There aren’t many more convincing sides than Paksi when it comes to attacking with conviction, knocking the ball around well, and penetrating defences. They could use a more dangerous finisher from time to time but they’re a very good attacking outfit, much moreso than their home form reflects this season in the Soproni Liga. I enjoy watching Paksi and I think that this it the opportune moment for them to improve that average home form of theirs. They need to beat Budapest Honved to have a chance of catching them in the table and I think that they’re good enough to do it, too. The visitors are still well-organised but almost all of their firepower vanished in the January transfer window and I think this is one of those games where they’ll notice it more than ever. Don’t get me wrong – Paksi cannot defend for shit – but Budapest Honved need to take their chances to not get ripped apart here and I don’t think that they’re good enough to do that. This game could canter over 2.5 goals if the two sides approach the game as I expect them to but I find a lot of value on the home win at 7/5 with the above in mind.
Verdict: Paksi SE to win at 7/5.
Groningen vs De Graafschap – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
I would recommend watching the start of this game prior to taking the bet. Why? Well, it’s all about motivation. Groningen are considerably better than De Graafschap and have the players to damage their opponents at the Euroborg. However, in their last few games, Groningen have really lacked on the motivation front and if they do that then they’ll fuck up because their laughable attempts at defending are simply poinless. Attack-wise, though – they really do possess some excellent and very much in-demand attackers in the form of Teixeira, Bacuna, Tadic, and Suk. Groningen can beat any side in the Eredivisie at this stadium but again, it really does depend how motivated they are.
You could point out that this game means more to De Graafschap than Groningen and you’d be right. If they were attacking more than they are then I’d probably give them a chance here but they’re not. Despite their perilous league placing, De Graafschap still enter games with a defensive mindset and defensive formation. Ultimately, they’ll concede, battle valiantly and deserve to equalise before conceding another couple of goals and losing the game by a convincing scoreline. Their own fans have reportedly commented that they preferred their old style where they at least attacked before being beaten. De Graafschap have low morale and nowhere near enough firepower for my liking.
Therefore, if Groningen feel the urge to play well for their fans, the home win with the -1 Asian Handicap appeals to me at 5/6.
Verdict: Groningen to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Aalesund FK vs Rosenborg BK – lay Rosenborg BK at 9/10.
Rosenborg are having a bit of a “purple patch” right now but they just don’t convince me. They’re still old, predominantly slow, and rather predictable. I won’t deny their quality nor their experience but they’re just not a very convincing unit, in my eyes. This side can and will concede against any Eliteserien side if they’re not 100% focused and Aalesund are no exception. The hosts tend to need all the help that they can get to find the net as goalscoring isn’t something that Aalesund usually cover in Rekdal’s training sessions, such is his meticulous nature when it comes to preventing opponents from scoring. Rosenborg have done pretty well thus far but they’re going to have to do far more to win at the Color Line Stadion than they have in any of their preceding games. Aalesund will match their strength up front with strong defenders and a well-organised defence. They’ll counter well with a creative midfield too, although Aalesund’s continued lack of strong strikers does bother me. Rosenborg can concede against anyone, though, and may well do so in this game. Artificial turf is simply not easy to play on and Rosenborg know it. This game is a tough one for any away side, especially given the determined nature and well-organised squad of Aalesund. With the above in mind, I think Rosenborg are too short to win this game so laying the visitors at 9/10 represents value in my eyes.
Verdict: Lay Rosenborg BK at 9/10.
Helsingborg vs Mjallby Solvesborg – lay Helsingborg at 6/5.
This tip is probably the boldest that I’ve given today but I still like it a lot.
Helsingborg still aren’t playing anywhere near their best football in the Allsvenskan and I’m not sure when they’re planning on starting, either. They’ve won two Allsvenskan games this season and they’ve been fortunate to win both, in my humble opinion. I watched them take on newly-promoted Atvidaberg recently and although it’s a potentially tricky away game, Helsingborg really failed to damage their opponents with any kind of consistency. Atvidaberg are not a good defensive side but they didn’t struggle to keep Helsingborg out. Helsingborg eventually broke the deadlock from nothing, promptly conceded an equaliser, before nicking what proved to be the eventual winner from a cross. From then on, it was a case of backs-to-the-wall for Helsingborg, who were battered by Atvidaberg for the remainder of the game. A better side than Atvidaberg would have equalised too. However, Atvidaberg squandered countless chances and Helsingborg cleared a couple off the line and clung on for a big three points. Convincing? Not by a long stretch. The quality is there, the finesse is there, the experience is there, and the organisation is there. Creativity and belief are not there, however, and the fact that only Syrianska have scored less goals than Helsingborg this season speaks volumes about where Helsingborg’s problems are.
Visitors Mjallby are good enough to piss a side like Helsingborg off, in my opinion. They don’t have much depth and aren’t especially big on quality. We’ll be able to see how big the absence of the departed Grahn is in this game for them too, which will be interesting. Mjallby are a well-organised unit, though, and they do have players that can punish their hosts. Former Helsingborg attacker Ekenberg is likely to want to make his mark here, as is in-form Ericsson and the lightning-fast Fejzullahu. Mjallby do lack a core to their midfield and can bottle it at the back if they fall behind but generally speaking, they’re well-motivated for games like these and from what I’ve seen from them so far this season, they’re good enough to upset the odds.
Lastly, former Mjallby legend El-Kabir has been linked with a return to the Allsvenskan following his bust-up with Cagliari’s boss. That immediately tells Ekenberg etc. that they better continue producing the goods up front or risk being dropped from the team. Mjallby have enough of everything that they need today to cause their unconvicing hosts a lot of problems and I think that they will, too. My sole concern would be the question marks over the fitness of Mjallby’s defender today so it may be wise to wait until kick-off to bet on this one.
However, I think that Mjallby are playing well enough and that Helsingborg are playing badly enough for a shock result to ensue here. In my eyes, laying Helsingborg could potentially be a big value bet at 6/5.
Verdict: Lay Helsingborg at 6/5.
Team news
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Racing Genk – Camus, Hubert, and Hyland are absent.
Anderlecht – Vargas, Mbokani, Safari, Deschacht, Kljestan, and Wasilewski are absent.
Bulgarian A PFG:
Minior Pernik – Bumelha is absent.
Chernomorets Burgas – Tsonev and Telkiyski are absent.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Sparta Prague – Kadlec is absent. Pamic’s red card was rescinded so can play.
Sigma Olmouc – Jirous, Rossi, Horava, and Petr are absent.
Finnish Ykkonen:
HiFK Helsinki – Suikku.
KooTeePee Kotka – Lomidze, Jammeh and Jarviniemi are absent. Nykanen returns.
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Siauliai – Kozlovs returns.
Banga Gargzdai – Ostap has left.
Dutch Eredivisie:
Groningen – Johansson, Ivens, Kwakman, van de Laak, Hilariej, and van Dijk are absent.
De Graafschap – Gyasi and Nalbantoglu are absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Gornik Zabrze – Kwiek, Jonczyk, Nowak, and Szeweluchin are absent.
Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala – Dancik is a doubt.
Lech Poznan – Rudevs, Wolakiewicz, and Krivets are absent. Arboleda and Henriquez are doubts.
Polonia Warsaw – Lis, Weis, Todorovski, Sultes, Jez, and Baruchyan are absent. Przyrowski is a doubt.
Polish Liga 1:
Piast Gliwice – Trela, Korbecki, Bzdega, Podgorski, Krzycki, Docekal, Urban, Lisowski, and Kezdiora are absent.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Sporting Braga – Viana, Ruben Amorim, and Imorou return. Vinicius, Mossoro, and Baiano are absent.
Olhanense – Luis Filipe and Piloto are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Helsingborg – Bouaouzan, Uronen, Lindstrom, and Atta are absent.
Mjallby Solvesborg – Nilsson, Wikstrom, and Rosengren are doubts.