TFT Issue 387!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Heracles Almelo – over 3 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Eredivisie game between high-flying Feyenoord Rotterdam and crazy Heracles Almelo.
Feyenoord have really, really impressed me this season. Consider that they don’t have the budget of Ajax or PSV and yet they’re still battling for the UEFA Champions League places? Feyenoord rely heavily on their own academy produce, year in, year out, and they should be commended for it. There are some very good players in this side but most of all, Feyenoord play very entertaining attacking football. I think it’s fair to say that Swedish hotshot Guidetti has bailed them out a few times this season but overall it’s been a very strong team effort.
However, due to the youthful naivety of their team, Feyenoord can also fall down at the most simple of hurdles. You’d expect them to win at De Kuip more often than they actually do and you’d also expect better displays too. Feyenoord do struggle against the more defence-minded sides but flourish against the best in the league and against sides that play an open game. Happily for us, Heracles play a very open game and thus Feyenoord should be able to get a much-needed three points from today’s game.
However, Heracles themselves may have something to say about the game yet. This is one side that it’s wise to never underestimate because they’re always good for springing a surprise. Admittedly, they tend to surprise far more on their artificial turf at the Polman Stadion than they do on natural turf and they’ll have to play bloody well to upset the odds at De Kuip.
I won’t rule out Heracles doing it, though. They need three points to keep their faint hopes of a UEFA Europa League place alive and they’ve got the firepower to do it. Midfield engine Overtoom is still out, which is a big blow and makes me favour Feyenoord that bit more as a result. You still have to expect Armenteros, Everton, and Douglas to produce something here against a dubious Feyenoord defence though. Heracles play attacking football because that’s all they know how to do. Unlike ADO Den Haag, for example, Heracles do not have the luxury of being able to sit back and hold a lead. Therefore, Heracles tend to push on to try and score more goals, which can either be a stroke of genius or a suicidal move depending on the opponent.
Not many sides have conceded more goals away from home this season in the Eredivisie than Heracles have and that’s because of the reasons I’ve mentioned above. In all of Heracles’ away games against the big sides (e.g. PSV, Ajax, AZ, Twente) this season, they’ve conceded a minimum of two goals per game. They’ve upset local rivals Twente with a deserved 2-3 win but they do tend to be on the receiving end of heavy scorelines and that’s what I’ve got in mind today. I expect a 3-1 or 4-1 but rather than relying on the youth of Feyenoord to break the handicap at a pressurised time and with a shit defence, I’d much rather take over 3 goals as it looks a complete steal at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 4/5.
Additional games
Boca Juniors vs Union Espanola – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
This game just screams goals to me. The first leg of this Copa Libertadores match-up is being played in Buenos Aires so Boca naturally have the advantage. I don’t think I’ve seen a Boca side this good for a while either, which helps. It’s amazing what happens when you allow a good manager to actually be manager for a while, isn’t it? Falconi has create a hard-working and efficient unit of a team from psychos and lazy players so hats off to him. Boca have some cracking attacking players and that shows with them having scored in five out of their six Copa Libertadores games. Their record portrays them as a better defensive side than they actually are, though – they’ve just not been tested by good attackers yet. However, that’s all set to change tonight with Sierra’s Union Espanola coming to town. They’re a good attacking side themselves and have scored in all of their group games thus far. Herrera is in good form up front and Mauro Diaz will be very motivated to do well here today as former River Plate academy boy. Sierra’s side play some really good attacking football and it’s no surprise as that was Sierra’s style as a player, although he had Zamorano and Salas ahead of him in the Chile squad, which certainly helped! I expect a very open game here with plenty of goals either way as both sides should score in this game. I wouldn’t touch the 1×2 market but I do think Boca are a shade short here. Either way, over 2.5 goals really appeals to me at 5/6.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Kortrijk vs Racing Genk – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
I felt sorry for Kortrijk with their 2-0 loss at Standard. There wasn’t much in it but sloppy defending didn’t help one bit. I can’t even bring myself to show you Standard’s second goal because it’s just depressing to think that a side can actually be as stupid as that when it comes to defending.
However, they’re back on familiar turf and this side never takes much time to get back on its feet. Kortrijk are one of the more motivated and consistent sides in the Eerste Klasse in the sense that you know what you’ll get from them in each game, which is typically a high-pressure attacking game with horrible defending. Subsequently, Kortrijk do score goals and they will upset sides that aren’t 100% up for it when they face Kortrijk, especially at home. They do have some good players in Veselinovic and Chavarria up front and given that Kortrijk are playing without pressure due to not even expecting to make this stage of the tournament, I fancy yet another free-flowing attacking display from the hosts, tired though they unquestionably are.
Can Genk deal with Kortrijk’s attack? Probably not; they’re pretty inept in defence too. However, Genk have been in superb form so far in the latter stages of the Eerste Klasse so you’d have to favour them here, although no trip to Kortrijk is ever an easy one. That said, Genk were torn a new one by Anderlecht in their last match so we have to see how they react today. Genk are usually a confidence team so I have a sneaking suspicion that they’ll fuck it up today. Nonetheless, they’re an attacking side with lots of good attackers, especially De Bruyne, and thus they’ll almost always score goals. That said, De Bruyne is actually missing today so they’ll need to source his creativity from elsewhere, which they can do. Vossen is a good enough poacher to do the rest!
The above leads me to suspect that we’re in for goals again today. Three out of the last four meetings between these two sides at Kortrijk have gone over 2.5 goals and three out of the last four meetings between these two sides in general have gone over 2.5 goals. As long as Genk don’t bottle it, this game should have plenty of goals although I’d avoid the 1×2 market until we see how Genk are mentally.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
AGF Aarhus vs Lyngby – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Although not a prolific side, AGF Aarhus are a very meticulous and efficient side, which is impressive in a rather laid-back Superligaen. They’ve approached their return to the Superligaen rather cleverly, in my view, as they’re fully aware that they’re not the best side in the division and thus they prioritised taking the draw over potentially losing the game. Now they’re well clear of the drop zone and are actually competing for a UEFA Europa League place so they will be motivated here. They capitulated against Nordsjaelland in their last game, bizarrely losing 5-3, which is a very un-AGF Aarhus scoreline. They’re a pain to play against, though, and they’re certainly not an entertaining side. Nonetheless, Peter Graulund, Soren Berg, and Soren Larsen have been around; they know how to find the net. They’re clever players, which is important because AGF are not an especially creative side. The absence of Larsen today is a blow but they’re facing a side that can’t defend so I’m not too concerned as long as AGF are focused.
Of course, the other side of the coin is the terrible state Lyngby are in right now. Defending is something that they’ve never been any good at so they don’t try, which is understandable. However, they’re not as good at attacking as they used to be and that’s a pretty bad combination, as I’m sure you’ll agree. They’ve not won in four games now, losing their last three, and scoring just one goal along the way. It’s too easy to beat Lyngby nowadays, to be honest. They’re plucky and I respect that but they’re simply not effective and that’s why they’ll be playing Division 1 football next season. Well, that’s one half of it – the other half is that the Danish FA won’t allow them to play in the Superligaen next season because their stadium is a joke. They don’t even have undersoil heating! They’ve finally taken action against Lyngby and have said that Lyngby will not be competing in the Superligaen next season, irrespective of where they finish this season. Lyngby have appealed the decision on the basis that they have work planned to improve the stadium but we’ll see how that goes. As it currently stands, Lyngby have been denied a license for next season. What I know for sure is that their players are going to find it very hard to be motivated with the above in mind and approaching a game in Aarhus without motivation is never a wise move.
With the proviso that AGF take the chances that they’ll inevitably create against a weak Lyngby defence, the -1 Asian Handicap appeals to me for AGF at evens.
Verdict: AGF Aarhus to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Nordsjaelland vs FC Copenhagen – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
It’s a title deciding game in the Superligaen, realistically speaking, and both sides will be up for it. If Nordsjaelland don’t win this game then they’re doomed to second place, which is still very respectable. It’s a hard thing to do to knock Copenhagen off their perch, though, so the hosts are in for a very tough game today.
Still, we saw Nordsjaelland smash five goals past AGF last match and if they can do that then they can win here. I wouldn’t put any money on that selection personally but I certainly wouldn’t dare rule out Nordsjaelland winning this game. For me, Nordsjaelland have been better at home this season than Copenhagen have. However, Copenhagen have demonstrated their experience by playing better on the road so it’s a hard one to call.
My instinct says that Copenhagen are the better side but is that enough? Not for me, hence me not getting involved on the 1×2 front. However, I do expect to see goals here as that’s the nature of both teams. Copenhagen have the best striker partnership in Denmark in N’Doye and Cesar Santin and with Bolanos, Grindheim, and Diouf supporting them, you know that Copenhagen have goals in them, either via a counter-attack or via conventional methods. Nordsjaelland have their own threats in Mikkelsen, Lawan, Stokholm, and Christensen though, and let’s not forget how motivated Andreas Laudrup will be against his former club.
Again, forget the 1×2 market (although the odds on a Copenhagen win are rather juicy!) because there are too many ifs and buts. However, over 2.5 goals at 9/10? Yes please!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Bolton Wanderers vs Tottenham Hotspur – away win at 10/11.
Bolton are in the drop zone and they’re not doing much about getting out of it, either. The work ethic of Bolton has never been a problem; they’re one of the hardest-working sides in the Premier League for my money. The problems they have are too big to be resolved purely by hard work, however. The first point is that they simply cannot defend as they have a Championship level defence. The second point is that Coyle makes them play defensive football in an attacking formation, which is just nuts. The third point is that Bolton almost never manage to come from behind either due to mental block or through not being effective enough in attack. I’ve lost count of the number of times this season that Bolton have thrown points away through not seeing out a game because they can’t hold leads. I’d love to see the statistics for how many games they’ve lost after falling behind, though. The re-introduction of Kevin Davies has added a brutality to Bolton’s attack that they probably needed and he is always a handful to play against. Maybe that’ll inspire Bolton to glory; who knows? I doubt it, though – all the Bolton fans I know are praying that QPR etc. get battered so that they can stay up. Bolton do have some very good widemen in Miyaichi and Petrov but they’re just a shade too easy to play against in general due to a lack of a central midfield and thus I will often go against Bolton with today being no exception. One last point – Coyle has said in the past few days that Muamba “may be able to attend” the game. Desperate times call for desperate measures, eh Coyle? He needs something to inspire his team and he knows it. I’m not sure it’ll work against a superior Spurs, though.
Spurs finally got three points on the board with the easiest home win they’ve ever had against a lacklustre Blackburn side. Spurs had previously been off the boil for a few weeks due to an absence of luck – we’ve all been there in the betting world enough times – but they’ve been playing well enough for me to have confidence in them today. I don’t think there’s any argument to saying that they’re a much better side than Bolton; they just need to make sure that they take their chances and don’t need a supreme Kyle Walker free-kick to make sure the points are theirs. This game means a lot to Spurs, too – they are fighting for a UEFA Champions League place, let’s not forget. Additionally, they’ve recently had the news that Harry Redknapp will be their manager next season, which is a huge boost to the club. I wouldn’t mind betting that the whole debacle with England supposedly approaching Redknapp about managing the national team having caused Spurs’ downturn in form to begin with. Either way, Spurs have good motivation and some momentum to take into this game so I fancy them here.
For the more superstitious among you, Spurs haven’t won at Bolton since 1996! Still, all records are there to be broken and everything points to a Spurs win today in my eyes, especially with that fantastically mobile midfield of theirs.
Verdict: Tottenham Hotspur to win at 10/11.
Jaro Pietarsaari vs Inter Turku – away win at 9/10.
Jaro finally got some points on the board last match when they beat KuPS Kuopio thanks to a last minute goal from Niang. They’ve played three Veikkausliiga games this season and they’ve looked impotent in all of them, which is a pretty big problem when you consider how ineffectual their defence is. The only reason HJK stuffed four goals past them in Helsinki was because of probably the worst defensive display that I’ve seen in some time. When they concede goals, they’re effectively doomed because they don’t score enough goals to get back into the game. Niang is a capable forward but he’s missing a strike partner of any quality now that Zeze and Sirbiladze have moved on. Eremenko’s sides are always motivated but if Agyeman and Niang are their only threats then Jaro are in real trouble this season.
Inter Turku, though – they look as if the world is their oyster. I don’t know if they’ve been inspired by the ineffectual and nervy displays of the seemingly faultless HJK Helsinki but whatever it is, Inter Turku look fresh! I have to admit that I didn’t think they’d be able to do that considering that they sold Timo Furuholm at the start of the season but Sirbiladze has slotted in perfectly and already has a great understanding with Ojala so Inter’s attack is very dangerous. They’ve played three Veikkausliiga games this season, winning all of them and keeping three clean sheets along the way; what more could Job Dragtsma ask for? He’s got a very talented side at his disposal and he’s a very good manager to boot. Inter’s defence isn’t as good as their record this season portrays but they’re all confident because of the results so it may well continue. I mean, Jaro are far from the best attacking side in Finland so we could see another clean sheet today.
One final point to make – Niang’s goal last match came from the penalty spot. That’s where Jaro are at right now in terms of attacking and scoring goals. Inter Turku have enough attacking options to score from any situation and that makes them by far the better side here. For me, 9/10 on the away win is a must today.
Verdict: Inter Turku to win at 9/10.
KuPS Kuopio vs HJK Helsinki – home win with draw no bet at 17/10.
HJK are favourites for this game? Someone at the bookmakers hasn’t been doing their homework on the Veikkausliiga so far this season, have they?!
HJK can only be favourites here on name alone because none of their displays this season earn them odds of 4/5 in an away game against a good side like KuPS! HJK are susceptible in defence and inconsistent in attack. Sadik is still out for the visitors which means that it’s either Pelvas or youngster Pohjanpolo that have to score the goals, which limits HJK’s capabilities, in my view. Demba Savage is starting to look more like his old self at HJK but they’re still short of the attacking class that they had last season and it really shows, especially when they’re conceding goals far too frequently. Muurinen is a good enough manager to keep his side motivated but their morale can’t be the best right now and Kuopio is no place for a struggling side to go.
Don’t get me wrong here – HJK are still the best side in Finland (just) but you’d not be able to see that from any of their displays this season. KuPS are a very capable home side and I fancy them to upset the odds a lot today, especially with such generous odds on display. We really need KuPS to have one of their good days at home because they’re unplayable on those days. Ilo, Venelainen, and Zahovaiko are all big, powerful attackers and HJK will struggle against them if KuPS give them the necessary service. However, KuPS are a bit hot and cold; they’re either brilliant or crap as they have no “average” display. Still, they should be motivated against the biggest club in Finland so I fancy KuPS quite a lot today.
There’s value in laying HJK Helsinki but I’m going to be bold and take KuPS with draw no bet cover instead as I genuinely believe that KuPS will really ruffle a few feathers today and they’re in a good position to take three points if they do.
Verdict: KuPS Kuopio to win with draw no bet at 17/10.
AC Milan vs Atalanta Bergamo – both sides to score at 10/11.
AC Milan are horribly short for this game and as good a side as they are, I’m just not convinced with them right now. They look bereft of confidence and they also look bloody tired, too. Milan obviously have the better quality of player here but I can’t endorse anyone backing them in this game today, as essential as three points are to them, because they’re not playing well enough to merit such odds.
Let’s not forget that this is a derby game; it means an awful lot to Atalanta. They’re a very spirited side and they will fight for every ball. I expect them to give as good as they get today, just as they always do. Two out of the last three games in Milan between these two sides have involved both sides scoring and one of which actually involved Atalanta winning. With no Thiago Silva in the centre of defence, you have to question how solid that Milan defence and my answer is “not very”. Milan have shipped goals in four out of their last six home games and Atalanta show up in the big games, causing problems for both Napoli and Internazionale respectively already this season. Atalanta generally don’t score goals on the road but they do in the big games and I think that they will here too, especially with Denis in top form this season. Therefore, my call is for both sides to score at 10/11.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 10/11.
Genoa vs Cagliari – lay Genoa at 11/10.
I respect Genoa a lot as a home side but I can’t take the odds on them seriously here. Firstly, they’ve been banned from having any fans in their home games for the remainder of this season following their firework assault on Siena’s players, which resulted in the game being stopped for 30 minutes before continuing with Genoa losing 1-4. Genoa simply aren’t playing well and they’re in real danger of being relegated, in my view. Genoa haven’t won for fourteen games in a row now and just seem to be fucking things up tactically. I mean, they either go too defensive and lose 1-0 or they attack and lose 3-2. De Canio needs to sort that out or they’re in deep, deep trouble. They’re not in a good position to do well today, either, with holding midfielder Constant out as well Kaladze and long-term absentees Bovo and Antonelli, all of which should be starters. I can’t see Genoa keeping a clean sheet here and if they don’t then they’re going to struggle to win.
At this stage of the season, it’s sometimes hard to motivate your team but Cagliari are one of those sides that just don’t need it. They’re an extremely motivated side as it is and with lots of physically strong and quick players, Cagliari are not a side to underestimate. They’re not a particularly prolific side but that’s more through wayward finishing than not creating chances. Cagliari’s away record isn’t good but they’ve looked more dangerous in front of goal since they signed Pinilla and I think that they can do damage here as a result. If they avoid defeat here, Cagliari are guaranteed to avoid the drop – that’s a pretty big motivational bonus on top of their usual motivation! Cagliari won at Genoa last season and they’ve got a home game (which is actually being played at a neutral venue) with Juventus and an away game with Fiorentina remaining. Anyone else think that today’s game is the one that they’ve got the best chance of taking points from?
For me, 11/10 on laying Genoa is a gift here.
Verdict: Lay Genoa at 11/10.
Ekranas Panevezys vs Suduva Marijampole – lay Ekranas Panevezys at evens.
There’s very little quality difference between these two A Lyga giants so why Ekranas are so short to win the game is beyond me. I respect Ekranas a lot as they’re the experienced side in Lithuania; they know how to grind out wins and nobody does it better than they do. However, Suduva are the most potent side in Lithuania and I think that they can score against the iron defence of Ekranas. In Ekranas’ usual approach, the possibility of them scoring a lot of goals just doesn’t happen because they prefer to sit on a lead rather than increase it. I don’t see how that can work against rivals Suduva as goalscoring is their forté. This game is made harder for the hosts as it’s being played on natural turf whereas their previous games have been on artificial turf. I think that there’s very little quality difference between these two sides, if any, and that Suduva have a very good chance of leaving Panevezys today with at least a point. Ekranas have only beaten Suduva twice in their last twelve attempts so for me, laying Ekranas is the only way to approach this tight game.
Verdict: Lay Ekranas Panevezys at evens.
NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar – home win with draw no bet at 6/5.
A spirited NEC against a tired and dejected AZ Alkmaar? Yes, the home win with draw no bet definitely appeals to me at 6/5!
I thought NEC were a bit sloppy defensively in their recent game with RKC Waalwijk but there are so many positives in this side that it’s hard not to like NEC. They play good, attractive football and always trouble their opponents in Nijmegen. The problem that they have is that there’s no striker to finish off their chances. Previously, Bjorn Vleminckx would do that job perfectly well but as he’s now wearing the blue-and-black of Brugge, he won’t be able to do that any longer. Lasse Schone has contributed a lot of goals from midfield this season but NEC do need a striker, especially with Schone moving to Ajax at the end of the season. NEC are a good outfit, though – Pastoor’s boys have a very good understanding, hence only two sides having won here in 2012 other than NEC themselves.
Visitors AZ are a superior side but not to the degree that the Eredivisie table would suggest, in my opinion. In Alkmaar, and when they’re not tired, AZ are unplayable, even for the likes of PSV and Ajax. However, away from home, late in the season, and with a thin squad, AZ look very vulnerable. I’ve watched a number of AZ’s games of late and they’ve looked unable to complete the ninety minutes. Hell, they shouldn’t have even beaten RKC Waalwijk in Alkmaar; God knows how RKC didn’t equalise as they dominated their hosts. A demoralising defeat at Feyenoord Rotterdam a few days ago won’t have helped matters for AZ, especially not on the tiredness front. They should have new father Rasmus Elm back in their ranks, which aids their attack massively, but there’s a bigger problem at AZ when it comes to winning away from home and it’s something that the Swede alone cannot control. I mean, AZ have won twice away from home in 2012, both of which were against poor sides – De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag respectively. Everyone else – barring Vitesse Arnhem – have beaten them, and usually in comfortable fashion too. Despite the obvious talent of Altidore, Benschop, Gudmundsson, Holman etc. it’s become very apparent that Verbeek’s team is not engineered to last the distance.
AZ’s title hopes have been dashed and if they carry on playing so badly away from home then their UEFA Champions League hopes will be dashed too. NEC are still fighting for a UEFA Europa League place so there’s plenty to play for here. The thing is that I can only see one side that is still capable of battling and that’s the frequently underrated NEC Nijmegen. For me, the home win with draw no bet cover at 6/5 is a must.
Verdict: NEC Nijmegen to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
RKC Waalwijk vs Roda JC Kerkrade – home win at evens.
Ah, how I love RKC Waalwijk nowadays! I’ve never come across a side so often underrated and they’re the prime example of why people should watch games rather than looking at statistics charts. RKC have played some of the best football in the Eredivisie this season for my money and they’re one of the few sides in it that can actually hold a lead. Much like NEC Nijmegen in the preview above, however, they do lack a finisher and it has damaged their season. Nonetheless, they’ve achieved far, far more than anyone thought possible and they’re very much in the battle for an unexpected UEFA Europa League place so why should the dream stop here? They look as fresh as ever and they’ve got some good players in their team. I’ve never seen Sno play as well as he is now and RKC are a horrible side to try and beat in Waalwijk. It’s easy to see why they’re so hard to beat, though – their cohesion is strong and only Vitesse, AZ, Feyenoord, and Ajax have conceded less goals at home than they have. RKC are always motivated and they’ve achieved their goal of avoiding relegation this season in style so they’re enjoying their football and it’s showing too.
Visitors Roda have just lost their “Cup Final” 1-3 with local rivals PSV Eindhoven and that’s pretty much done their season in. They’re still vying for a UEFA Europa League place themselves but it’s hard to see that battle continuing today with eleven defeats from sixteen Eredivisie away games leading them into this encounter. Roda love to upset the odds but they’re absolutely terrible at the back and they don’t give anywhere near enough service to hotshot Malki up front, hence their huge issues away from home. Roda have already lost five out of their last seven away games and although they’re a capable side, they never seem to show it away from Kerkrade. I think Roda have the motivation to do something here but I don’t think that they have the tactical knowledge nor the defensive organisation to deal with a very good RKC side.
Home win for me at evens, especially with Roda missing half of their defence in Hempte and Vukovic, not to mention number one goalkeeper Kieszek!
Verdict: RKC Waalwijk to win at evens.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs VVV Venlo – both sides to score at evens.
Everyone is expecting Ajax to coast to victory here and I am one of those people. It’s hard to anticipate Ajax beating the handicap, though – they either let Sigthorsson do as he wishes and they score as many as they want or they produce the frustrating passing game that means they win 2-0 or 3-1 and you’ll rarely find good value on an Ajax -1.5 handicap.
With that in mind, I’ve decided to approach this game differently. Contrary to what their league placing suggests, VVV are actually an adept attacking side and there aren’t many games that they don’t score in. Where they fall down is their poor defending and their lack of stamina/depth, hence them losing so many games. However, you can never question this side’s spirit nor their ability to score goals and I think that they’ll demonstrate that well at the Amsterdam ArenA. Let’s face it – it’s do-or-die for VVV who need three points here to stand any chance of beating the drop so I expect them to go for it. Out of their thirty-two games this season, VVV have only failed to score in eleven games, which has earned my respect. VVV have scored at AZ, at Heerenveen, and at Feyenoord already this season so why not Ajax too?
For me, taking both sides to score at evens looks very appealing today.
Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.
Lokomotiv Moscow vs CSKA Moscow – over 2.5 goals at 5/4.
Although statistics suggest that neither of these two sides are particularly prolific, I do think that this game has a better chance of going over 2.5 goals than the odds suggest. Both have the necessary elements to push each other’s buttons, so to speak. CSKA have powerful attackers that Lokomotiv hate to deal with and Lokomotiv have the pace and movement to upset CSKA’s strong but slow defence. I watched Lokomotiv batter CSKA a few weeks ago and that game should have gone over 2.5 goals but CSKA didn’t feel inclined to join in, hence them losing 2-0. However, today should be different as they have Doumbia available and I think he can make a difference here. Lokomotiv have plenty of attacking power themselves in Pavlyuchenko and Caicedo, not to mention the loyal Sychev! With Ignashevich and Berzeutskiy both still out for CSKA, their usually solid defence will be in tatters so for me, over 2.5 goals is worth a shot at 5/4.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/4.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad – both sides to score at 4/5.
This is a bold bet on the basis that Atletico have strengthened their defence a lot since Simeone came in. However, I’m working on the principle that Atletico have had a very busy few months with the UEFA Europa League taking a lot of their time and they should have some tired legs today as a result. This is what – their fourth game in ten days? It’s a lot to ask for any side. Atletico have conceded in three out of their last home games and have conceded in five out of their last seven Primera Liga games in general so the window of opportunity is there. Real Sociedad shit themselves away from home, though – I doubt they’ll be taking anything back to San Sebastian but a whipped behind unless they produce one of their rare masterclass displays. Sociedad do play good football but their chances have to fall to Vela or Griezmann as Agirretxe is too hit-and-miss to be a consistent striker, in my eyes. If it’s one of those two then I fancy them to score and thus we should be on to a winner because Atletico end very few home games without scoring, especially with the dynamic Falcao leading the line. For me, taking both sides to score at 4/5 is well worth a flutter today.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Real Madrid – away win with -1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
I’m an Athletic enthusiast but I’d have to recommend going against them today. San Mames is no easy venue for any visiting side due to Athletic’s amazing support but they’re going to need a minor miracle to beat Madrid tonight. Athletic still have the superb Llorente and the pace of Muniain and Susaeta on the flanks to cause problems and I’m absolutely certain that they will at some point during the game. However, Athletic miss two players today that they will miss a lot, in my opinion. Their names aren’t said as often as they should be but Herrera and Iturraspe have been perfect in central midfield for Athletic this season and being without both of them today is a mammoth blow. If you watch Athletic then you’ll note that it’s Herrera who brings others into the game with his skill, his mobility, and his vision. Without him, they look very flat sometimes, especially when they have tired legs. I’m curious to see who Bielsa will put in front of the back four with no Iturraspe, though – Perez just isn’t ready. What he should do is put Javi Martinez back into midfield, which is where he should be playing anyway. That would help them massively but I doubt he’ll do that. No, I expect he’ll put De Marcos in to do Herrera’s job and although he has the pace and the skill, he doesn’t have the same vision nor passing range and I think that’ll really damage Athletic’s gameplan, as will not having the ball! I bet they wish they hadn’t loaned Orbaiz out now, eh? Either way, I expect a long night for Athletic’s tired legs and although they may well score, I think they’re going to lose this one.
Real Madrid must be motivated properly for this game or they simply won’t win the game. Nobody wins in the Basque country without working insanely hard but I believe Mourinho will make it so. Madrid win the title if they win this game so that’s more than enough motivation for them anyway. There’s no way in hell that Bilbao can handle Ronaldo because nobody can and because full-backs are where Athletic are weakest. Real Madrid have more than enough attacking talent to really damage Athletic today and I think that they will too, much as it pains me to say it.
One more thing – Amorebieta loves getting sent off in the big games. What usually happens is that Athletic score first, then Madrid equalise, take the lead, and then Amorebieta is sent off so Bilbao end up losing 3-1 or 4-1. I’m not Nostradamus but I wouldn’t mind betting on that occurring. Either way, with the above in mind, I think taking Real to beat the -1 Asian Handicap is very appealing at 9/10.
Verdict: Real Madrid to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
Valencia CF vs Osasuna – away win with +1 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
Valencia are very short against a well-organised Osasuna side and I think they’re going to struggle to break through. I mean, there’s no Canales nor Banega nor Feghouli to unlock this solid Osasuna side so I’m not sure where their goals will come from. Soldado’s a capable hitman but he’s nothing without service. Valencia will have to go down the flanks in this game and as good as Pablo Hernandez and Jordi Alba are at supporting Soldado with crosses, that plays into Osasuna’s hands perfectly. Osasuna welcome back Miguel Flano today and his speciality is dealing with aerial balls into the box so I think Valencia are in for a very tough game here. Raul Garcia will always lead from the front and I don’t see any Valencia answers to the questions that Osasuna will ask. If Osasuna score then I’ll be very confident about this tip but to be honest, with Valencia’s absentees taken into account, I’m confident already. For me, giving Osasuna a +1 Asian Handicap at 6/5 is a bit of a steal here unless Valencia produce one of their rare composed displays.
Verdict: Osasuna to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
Real Zaragoza vs Levante – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Well, there’ll be a lot of fans cursing Sporting Gijon in Zaragoza following Sporting’s 2-3 loss against Villarreal as that makes Zaragoza’s chances of beating the drop very minimal. However, it’s still mathematically possible and I expect them to show the same fight today that they have in recent weeks and that should be enough to see them rile Levante today. There’s more than enough going forward for Zaragoza to score here but their defence is amongst the weakest in the Primera Liga so even a Levante side devoid of pacey Ivorian hitman Kone should be able to score against them today. This game matters to Levante with their European aspirations so I expect a committed game from both sides and from what I’ve seen of them both in recent weeks, that means that we’ll see goals here. For me, taking over 2.5 goals looks solid enough at 9/10.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Helsingborg vs AIK Solna – lay Helsingborg at 9/10.
As if Helsingborg are at evens to beat AIK Solna!! This isn’t 2007/08, you know – they don’t have Omotoyossi and Larsson up front now!
Look, Helsingborg are a good side but they’re not a special side at the moment. They’re well-organised and they have a lot of experience but they’re just not composed. Every side that has played against them this season has done so without fear and because of that Helsingborg are scared themselves and they make stupid mistakes. I still don’t know how they managed to win at Atvidaberg because they didn’t deserve to! Helsingborg have a very good striker in Finnbogason but the lines behind him and their build-up play is very slow and very predictable. Helsingborg will always be a threat from set pieces and crosses but that’s it at the moment. They’ve not played one good game of football in the Allsvenskan this season for my money and now they’re facing one of the most well-organised and confident sides in it and they’re evens to win the game? Crazy stuff.
AIK are not an entertaining side whatsoever. However, they’re extremely efficient and that’s what is doing them proud this season. To score against AIK you need to either play very well or be very lucky. This side simply does not concede goals and it’s largely due to their unadventurous nature. They have Celso Borges carrying all their hopes in attack and he usually has enough in the tank to make something happen at some point before AIK retreat to sit on their lead. AIK are good enough to pull it off, however – Helsingborg try to emulate that but fail.
I’ve looked at this game time and time again and I just can’t see how AIK will lose this game. I know that’s famous last words etc. but the way both sides have played this season would suggest that we’re heading for a 0-0 draw and that AIK losing this game would require a minor miracle from the under-performing hosts.
Verdict: Lay Helsingborg at 9/10.
Syrianksa Sodertalje vs Elfsborg Boras – home win with +1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
Ok, here’s some classic Allsvenskan odds mindfucking from the bookies for you, guys – pay attention!
Elfsborg are around 1/2 to win this game. I can categorically guarantee you that there is no side in Sweden worthy of being 1/2 to win a game away from home; fact. The quality gap isn’t big enough to allow it! I’m a big fan of Elfsborg and their efficient ways but these odds are just wrong!
Ok – this game is played on natural turf; Elfsborg use artificial turf at the Boras Arena, which is obstacle number one. Obstacle number two would be that Elfsborg operate at around 50-60% when playing away from home. I don’t know why they do it that way but it’s just the way it goes, much like Getafe in Spain’s Primera Liga.
Elfsborg have already won twice away from home this season so maybe I’m talking through my arse, eh? Wrong. Their two wins came at Gefle and Orebro, both of which have artificial pitches. It really does make a huge difference with the anticipation of the ball’s bounce, passing, shooting, goalkeeping decisions etc. Elfsborg should never be this short away from home; it’s just ludicrous!
Elfsborg are the better of these two sides – there’s simply no arguing that point. However, I think they’re in for a much harder game than the odds suggest. Syrianska are packed full of experienced heads and they’re a pain to beat. What’s caused them to lose their last two home games? A goalkeeping error in the game with AIK and a last-minute winner in their game against Hacken a few days ago. Syrianska are a big-game side, though – they always turn up when the big boys are in town. I posted their head-to-head records from their games against Sweden’s elite over the past year or so when I previewed their game at Malmo because it shows how hard they are to play against. The lesser sides can do as they wish to against Syrianska but please don’t underestimate this side in the big games.
Quality-wise, do Elfsborg have the abiliy to batter Syrianska here? Absolutely. Will they? I very much doubt it; they’ll do win to purely win the game, in my opinion. Elfsborg won here last season but needed an early goal to force Syrianska out of their shell before they went and got another goal. The same is possible, of course, but I just don’t think it will today. For me, there’s plenty of value in giving Syrianska a +1 Asian Handicap at 9/10 today as I don’t think Elfsborg can win by more than a single goal here unless they’re outstanding or Syrianska are awful.
Verdict: Syrianska Sodertalje to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
IFK Goteborg vs GIF Sundsvall – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Well, this has been one of my favourite bets for a while now and it still is. IFK Goteborg’s newbies are gradually getting into the swing of things at their new club and IFK do look better for it. However, they’re still not sound defensively and thus I can’t list them as reliable. On paper, they’re still one of the top two sides in Sweden for my money but when they start to show it consistently is another matter.
Stefan Selakovic is absent today and they’ll miss his experience if things aren’t going too well. They should still have enough to beat GIF Sundsvall, though – GIF cannot defend! They’re good at keeping the ball but IFK Goteborg have got players that can punish them in any situation and thus I expect IFK to do enough to win this game. They’ve got plenty of firepower and their cohesion is growing so they should be able to do deal with GIF Sundsvall if they approach the game correctly. Still, the visitors have been a nightmare for most sides this season and they do cause problems on the counter-attack with their pace.
Therefore, I’m opting for the sensible and hopefully profitable selection of over 2.5 goals here. I would expect a scoreline of 2-1, 3-1, or 3-2 if things go as I expect them to. However, I would not enter the 1×2 market until IFK develop some consistency and by that I mean that I need to see them dominate a game against a side that isn’t Atvidaberg!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Atvidaberg vs BK Hacken Goteborg – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
This looks another clear over 2.5 goals game to me. Hacken have done really well this season when you consider that the sold star striker Ranegie last season to Malmo. Youngster Waris is making all the right waves and he does look a promising striker, to be fair. His movement and positioning is good; he just needs to sort out his finishing. Had he been more aware in front of goal then Hacken wouldn’t have lost against IFK Goteborg but that’s how it goes. He’s still a kid, after all. The only game that Hacken have played this season that hasn’t gone over 2.5 goals was their derby with GAIS Goteborg at the start of the season and we all know the effects that derbies can have on outcomes. The fact is that Hacken are a very good attacking side and they can and will score goals. Their defence is not reliable, though. Kalmar applied some pressure to them lately and Hacken immediately buckled, losing 3-1. IFK did the same to them and Hacken buckled again, losing 1-2. Even Syrianska turned the screw against them and Hacken needed a late goal to win the game. Hacken can and will score goals but you can see why I am apprehensive about taking them to win games.
Atvidaberg are not a particularly good side but they’re plucky as hell and they do score goals. I think that their squad is very thin and they’re short on quality players but they can ride this wave of momentum for as long as it lasts. Well, I say momentum but they’ve actually lost three games in a row now. What I mean is that they’re playing well and with spirit. When they lose that spirit, that’s when everyone is going to batter them. Prodell, Ericsson, and Moller have all done well at adapting to life in the Allsvenskan though and that helps in keeping opponents on their toes. Atvidaberg can always score goals if they need to, which should be even more evident with the return of Bosnia-Herzegovina midfielder Suljic today. This is a game that Atvidaberg can win – whether they will or not is another matter, however.
For me, over 2.5 goals is a steal in this game at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Sivasspor vs Istanbul BB – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Most bookies have slashed the odds on this selection to 7/10 or 8/11 and I don’t blame them but Pinnacle Sports have stupidly helpfully left it as long as 4/5, which is pure value to me. These are two very attack-minded sides that do nothing but score and concede goals. That’s basically what I expect today, in a nutshell! Oh, and a lot of defenders miss this game from both sides, incidentally! Over 2.5 goals for me.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Galatasaray vs Trabzonspor – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
This really should be a very one-sided game, in my view. Galatasaray are streets ahead of every other Super Lig side right now and it’s all down to Fatih Terim, in my eyes. Nobody else can galvanise this Galatasaray side like he can and they look inspired under his reign as a result. Elmander, Baros, and especially ex-Trabzonspor attacker Inan have been in inspired form this season. Galatasaray just look unplayable! Fenerbahce beat them here recently but that was more of a hit-and-run game for me with Galatasaray crashing something like 28 shots at the Fenerbahce goal during the game. You can argue that their finshing should have been better but the performance and the determination is still there for the hosts and thus I fancy them to do well here, just as they did when they won 2-4 in Trabzon recently. Burak Yilmiz is the main threat to this bet with Altintop injured for the visitors but he’ll be wearing a face mask for today’s game as he’s still injured so it’s hard to expect him to be at his best. On top of that, it’s not a good time to be a Trabzonspor fan with Fenerbahce having had the possibility of them being relegated due to match-fixing removed as the Turkish FA couldn’t find sufficient evidence, apparently. Trabzonspor were already mad with Fenerbahce to begin with but that’s nothing to how they feel now! Anyone else think that they’ll do anything to help Galatasaray finish above Fenerbahce as a result? Hmm. I’ll leave that one up to you.
Either way, the -1 Asian Handicap looks great value to me at 4/5 as there’s a big quality gap here.
Verdict: Galatasaray to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Team news
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Anderlecht – Wasilewski is absent. Suarez, Kanu, and Odoi are doubts. Kljestan and Mbokani return.
AA Gent – Thijs and Jorgensen are absent.
Kortrijk – Van Hout is absent.
Racing Genk – De Bruyne and Buffel are absent.
Danish Superligaen:
Nordsjaelland – Bjelland returns.
FC Copenhagen – Delaney and Larsson are absent.
AGF Aarhus – S.Larsen, Akharraz, Norregaard, and Eckersley are absent.
Lyngby – No news.
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo – Brighi, Capelli, and Marilungo are absent.
Bologna – Pulzetti, Krhin, Gimenez, Gillet, and Casarini are absent. Crespo, Mudingayi, Ramirez, and Perez are doubts.
Cagliari – Rui Sampaio, Eriksson, El-Kabir, and Dessena are absent. Canini is a doubt.
Catania – Barrientos, Llama, and Potenza are absent. Ebagua, Suazo, Paglialunga, Capuano, and Campagnolo are doubts.
Cesena – Colucci, Del Nero, Martinez, Santana, and Pudil are absent. Calderoni, Lauro, and Comotto are doubts.
Fiorentina – Amauri, Kroldrup, and Vargas are absent. Montolivo, Gamberini, Cerci, and Behrami are doubts.
Genoa – Antonelli, Bovo, Kaladze, and Constant are absent.
Internazionale – Castaignos and Chivu are absent. Julio Cesar, Samuel, and Zanetti are doubts.
Juventus – Pepe is a doubt.
Lazio – Brocchi, Dias, Hernanes, Klose, Makinwa, Marchetti, Radu, and Stankevicius are absent. Matuzalem, Lulic, Cana, and Biava are doubts.
Lecce – Julio Sergio and Esposito are absent. Corvia is a doubt.
AC Milan – Inzaghi, Pato, Roma, and Thiago Silva are absent. Seedorf, Gattuso, Emanuelson, and Ambrosini are doubts.
Novara – Ludi, Marianini, Mascara, and Ujkani are absent. Jeda and Caracciolo are doubts.
Parma – Gobbi, Mariga, and Mirante are absent. Zaccardo and Ferrario are doubts.
Siena – Terzi is absent. Gonzalez is a doubt.
Udinese – Badu, Benatia, and Isla are absent. Di Natale and Ferronetti are doubts.
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Tauras Taurage – Mascia and Sirevicius are doubts. Di Piedi and Kizys return.
Kruoja Pakruojis – No news.
Ekranas Panevezys – Andjelkovic may return.
Suduva Marijampole – No news.
Vilnius – No news.
Dainava – No news.
Dutch Eredivisie:
Twente Enschede – Rendla and Bengtsson are absent. De Jong and Chadli are doubts.
Heerenveen – Svec, Sibon, Roorda, Janmaat, and Vandenbussche are absent.
PSV Eindhoven – Isaksson and Pieters are absent.
ADO Den Haag – Kum and Leeuwin are absent.
FC Utrecht – Mulenga is absent.
Vitesse Arnhem – Annan and Bony are absent.
Groningen – Johansson, Kwakman, van de Laak, and van Dijk are absent.
NAC Breda – Gorter, Zonneveld, Kolk, and Gilissen are absent.
NEC Nijmegen – Nuytinck, Goossens, George, Nijland, and Wellenburg are absent.
AZ Alkmaar – Ortiz, Beerens are absent. Martens is a doubt. Elm returns.
De Graafschap – Gyasi, Calvete, Kujala, Saejis, Frankel, and Nalbantoglu are absent. Rose is a doubt.
Excelsior Rotterdam – Nuytinck, van Deelen, van Steensel, and Te Vrede are absent.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam – Boerrigter, Sulejmani, and Boilesen are absent.
VVV Venlo – Maguire is absent.
RKC Waalwijk – van Dijk, Janssen, Braber, and Bandjar are absent.
Roda JC Kerkrade – Vukovic, Staelens, Hempte, De Beule, Vormer, Kieszek, and Pluim are absent.
Feyenorod Rotterdam – Guidetti, Fernandez, Swerts, and Ramsteijn are absent. Cabral is a doubt.
Heracles Almelo – Vejinovic and Duarte are absent. Manager Bosz has a touchline ban.
Romanian Liga:
Targu Mures – No absentees.
Vaslui – Cerniauskas, Balaur, Zmeu, ad Milanov are absent.
Astra Ploiesti – Matzel and Patrascu are absent.
Rapid Bucharest – Glauber, Teixeia, and Alexa are absent.
Scottish Premier League:
Aberdeen – Fallon, Milsom, Robertson, Hughes, Folly, Osbourne, and Pawlett are absent.
Hibernian – Galbraith and Stevenson are absent.
Inverness Caledonian Thistle – Hogg and Hayes are absent.
Dunfermline Athletic – Burns, Bell, Rutkiewicz, and Gallacher are absent.
Kilmarnock – Buijs, Heffernan, Kroca, Pascall, and Hay are absent. Shiels is a doubt.
St.Mirren – Barron and McAusland are absent.
Rangers – Papac, Davis, and Naismith are absent. McCulloch and Little are doubts.
Dundee United – Gunning and Lacny are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Atletico Madrid – Tiago, Silvio, and Antonio Lopez are absent. Perea is a doubt.
Real Sociedad – Markel and Inigo Martinez are absent. Demidov returns.
Barcelona – Abidal and Villa are absent. Sanchez and Valdes are doubts.
Malaga – Isco, Toulalan, Caballero, Mathijsen, Maresca, and Baptista are absent.
Real Mallorca – Nunes, Tissone, Kevin, and Alvaro are absent. Caceres returns.
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid – Javi Fuego and Sueliton are absent. Labaka and Casado return.
Sevilla CF – Perotti, Kanoute, and Spahic are absent. Palop, Manu, and Medel are doubts.
Real Betis Balompie – Molina is absent. Dorado is a doubt.
Real Zaragoza – Aranda is absent.
Levante – Kone is absent.
Athletic Club de Bilbao – Iturraspe, Ander Herrera, Ocio, Castillo, and Gurpegi are absent. Amorebieta is a doubt. Aurtenetxe returns.
Real Madrid – Di Maria is absent.
Valencia CF – Canales, Banega, and Feghouli are absent. Albelda returns.
Osasuna – Echaide, Kike Sola, and Masoud are absent. Flano and Sergio return.
O
Swedish Allsvenskan:
IFK Goteborg – Selakovic and Waehler are absent. Farnerud and Dyrestam return.
GIF Sundsvall – Forsberg is absent.
Helsingborg – Atta, C.Andersson, and Wahlstedt are absent.
AIK Solna – Turina is absent.
Syrianska Sodertalje – Skenderovics is absent. Saleh returns.
Elfsborg Boras – Augustsson, Mobaek, and Stuhr-Ellegaard may return.
Atvidaberg – Moberg is absent. Suljic returns.
BK Hacken Goteborg – No news.
Turkish Super Lig:
Galatasaray – No absentees.
Trabzonspor – Altintop is absent. Volkan Sen is a doubt.
Sivasspor – Navratil and Yerlikaya are absent.
Istanbul BB – Zayatte, Vinicus, Hasagic, Tom Silva, and Can Arat are absent.