TFT Issue 39!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
The bin
Zenit St.Petersburg vs CSKA Moscow – Zenit St.Petersburg to win at 7/5.
For me, Zenit are a better side than CSKA nowadays with a greater threat in their arsenal, not to mention a better manager. However, CSKA have a good record against almost all of their Premier League title rivals and a lack of team news leaves me unable to counter the afore-mentioned, hence this one making its way to the bin.
Erzebirge Aue vs Union Berlin – home win at 11/10.
Was really tempted but I’ve been put off because key defender Paulus misses this game for the hosts and defence is an integral part of their excellent home form. The good results that Union have recorded away from home lately also makes this game a big “no bet” for me.
Atromitos vs Panionios – home win at 6/5.
Atromitos are better than Panionios, in my view, and 6/5 looks far too long with that in mind. True, they’ve not won enough this season but that’s due to bad defending – they have little problem in scoring goals. However, Panionios’ recent match-fixing skills put me off betting on this game so I’ll give it a miss.
Bologna vs Cagliari – home win at 7/5.
Bologna are dynamite at home and as much as I respect Cagliari, they’re not a great away side. However, Bologna miss four important players for this game (Ekdal, Garics, Esposito, and Gimenez) so although Cagliari are missing Perico and Canini, I have to steer clear here as Bologna usually don’t function well with integral parts of their unit absent.
Double chance
1X on:
Mlada Boleslav
Sparta Prague
Brondby
Barcelona Guayaquil
Olympique Lyonnais
Olympiakos Piraeus
Udinese
SSC Napoli
Internazionale
Kashima Antlers
Lechia Gdansk
Real Valladolid
Eskisehirspor
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk
Club Nacional de Montevideo
Featured game
Today’s featured game is the A PFG game in Bulgaria between Lokomotiv Sofia and Levski Sofia. I’m pretty confident that most of you know that this is a derby and thus caution must be used already so I see no need in emphasising that point.
However, there are some points for this game that do need emphasising and the first one of which is the venue of this game. Lokomotiv’s own stadium is being renovated so they’ve been playing their home games at another stadium in Sofia for the current season. Is it relevant? Oh yes! That stadium happens to belong to their opponents today, Levski, so Levski are effectively at home here, which gives them a a massive boost.
I’ve mentioned many times before that Lokomotiv Sofia are unreliable defensively but good in attack with Boateng, Genkov, and Kamburov. Well, they’re still unreliable defensively but now have none of those attacking players remaining and subsequently are a bit poor. They’ll still most likely finish in the top six of the A PFG this season but don’t expect a great deal from them as they don’t have the firepower that they used to have and it’s in games like this one where it should show.
Levski Sofia need to bounce back following an embarrassing derby defeat against CSKA Sofia last week and this game looks a good platform for them to do so. Levski’s manager has assured fans that Dembele’s transfer rumours abroad will not disrupt his play for the club, which is great as he’s the focal point of all their attacks. Levski only really parted with Brazilian attacker Joaozinho in the transfer window and still possess a very good squad, especially with Tasevski pulling the strings, so I rate their chances of winning this game rather highly here.
You can expect a highly-charged game between these two old foes and that makes it a semi-dangerous game to bet on to begin with. However, from a quality perspective, Levski are superior to Lokomotiv in area of the field, in my view. Therefore, odds of evens on Levski winning this game (in what is effectively a home match for them) appeals to me a lot here.
Verdict: Levski Sofia to win at evens.
Additional games
AC Oulu vs RoPS Rovaniemi – away win with draw no bet at 10/3.
Feel free to disregard this one as it’s more of a “fun” bet but it’s one I like the look of.
First of all, this is a derby game, so the short odds on AC Oulu already look ridiculous to me. However, RoPS struggled with their lesser Oulu rivals OPS last season both at home and away so them struggling against OPS’ “big brothers” wouldn’t surprise me, especially with this game being played in an indoor arena.
However, I have my suspicions that this game is fixed as an away win and only time will tell if I’m talking through my arse or not. I can’t prove it whatsoever but let’s just say that some things make sense here. For instance, there was a Singaporean man imprisoned lately after coming from Rovaniemi as he was accused of match fixing. RoPS are no strangers to matxh fixing and have actually had one of their own players lately hauled up for potentially being involved in match-fixing so the morale in their camp may be a bit low currently, which possibly explains the odds on AC Oulu being so short.
However, all this occurred lately and in my view, this is the fixed game. AC Oulu are on the verge of being kicked out the Veikkausliiga due to financial issues whereas RoPS Rovaniemi aren’t short on money at all but they are short on points in the Liiga Cup and they do struggle in derbies. Away win here, anyone? The odds look good enough to have a fun bet with anyway!
Verdict: RoPS Rovaniemi to win with draw no bet at 10/3.
Midtylland vs FC Copenhagen – away win at 4/5.
Midtylland parted ways with defender Priske, playmaker Ilso, and attacker Collins, not to mention leading goalscorer Kristensen during the January transfer window and have subsequently condemned themselves to mid-table annonymity for the remainder of the Superligaen campaign, in my view. Although their energetic Nigerian contingent in midfield will make the hosts fiercely competitive against any opponent, they lack the necessary quality to score goals consistently and to hold leads, in my view, so I really don’t rate their chances here at all.
I’d normally swerve to avoid FC Copenhagen here because they’ve got a big game with Chelsea next week and they will absolutely prioritise that game they’ve all but won the Superligaen this season anyway. However, their current batch of players is so strong in quality and in depth that I’m still confident in their ability to win this game irrespective of who they field. They’ve drafted in a few players to bolster the squad as a whole i.e. Absalonsen and for me, they can do no wrong at the moment. They’re light years ahead of all their contemporaries in the Superligaen and sixteen wins and three draws in nineteen Superligaen games thus far backs that up immaculately.
Copenhagen have already won seven out of eight on the road this season whilst averaging scoring nearly three goals per game. If Midtylland can stop them here then they deserve all the plaudits that they can possibly receive, especially with Copenhagen having more competitive match practice of late than they’ve had. However, I don’t see it – Copenhagen really should be too strong here and although I wouldn’t touch them at odds of 4/5 back when Midtylland had a good side, I’d take them at 4/5 to beat what has effectively become a middle-of-the-road team.
Verdict: FC Copenhagen to win at 4/5.
Budapest Honved vs Ferencvaros – away win at 13/10.
Budapest Honved sold a lot of regulars over the window (Abass, Coira, Takacs, Cseke, Cuerda, Conteh-Lacalle) to make way for new boss (well, he used to coach Budapest Honved anyway so not really “new”) Supka. He’s brought in some ex-Budapest Honved players ala Hercegfalvi and Ivancsis and some talented foreigners like ex-Sparta Prague attacking midfielder Zelenka and Kris Bright but they’re basically in a transitional period and thus they’re quite vulnerable at the moment, especially with leading goalscorer Abass having departed for Nimes and experienced Spanish full-back Coira having moved on too. Budapest Honved have already lost four out of their eight Soproni Liga home games this season, winning just twice along the way. They’re not bad defensively but they don’t score goals and the sale of their leading goalscorer looks foolish with that in mind. Honved will be more vulnerable defensively after some important defensive departures and although the addition of Zelenka in midfield will aid their creativity, there’s still a lot of work to do here and I think Honved will be sitting ducks today.
By stark contrast, Ferencvaros appear to be finally settling down after a lengthy period of upheaval and it has be largely down to wily boss Prukner. He’s maintained this side immaculately despite the financial warfare going on behind the scenes and the Ferencvaros fans know it and appreciate him for it too. Prukner has been around the Soproni Liga for a long time and he knows what his sides need to do to win games. Ferencvaros’ defence can still terrify me at times because they seem able to concede goals against absolutely anyone. However, the clever way in which he’s built this current Ferencvaros side around experienced Czech attacker Marek Heinz is paying huge dividends and you can see what it’s done for the team as they’re now grinding out wins when they’re not playing well, just as they did last match during a Kecskemeti TE, which should really have ended as a draw.
So all in all, we have one side that is trying to rebuild itself and get to know each other versus another side that is a good unit at the moment and demonstrates it on a frequent basis. Although Ferencvaros aren’t a great away side, you still have to favour them to win this one today with the above in mind so my call is the away win here.
Verdict: Ferencvaros to win at 13/10.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs AZ Alkmaar – under 2.5 goals at evens.
For the first time in a while, I’m going to attempt to exploit Ajax’s weakness in finishing by taking an under 2.5 goal perspective here so don’t be surprised when they almost inevitably win 5-0!
On a more serious note though – the problems with striker El Hamdaoui and his lacklustre displays heightened and De Boer has now left him out of the match squad due to the constant pressure he was receiving from the Ajax fans. Ajax now have no recognisable strikers in their starting eleven barring their emerging youngsters and as promisingly well as they play, as well as they link up, and as hard as they work, they lack a lot of experience and that explains why Ajax are dominating sides at home without scoring goals on a consistent basis ala their 1-0 win against VVV Venlo lately. Ajax are good enough to keep the ball and play some magical passes here but to win the game without any natural goalscorers is difficult and I think they’ll struggle here.
I’m not a massive advocate of AZ Alkmaar because they’re also not a goalscoring side. However, they’re a resolute defensive unit, particularly away from home, and that should be enough to upset Ajax today by keeping them out for the vast majority of the game. Only four out of AZ’s twelve away games in the Eredivisie this season have gone over 2.5 goals because they defend very well and aren’t very adventurous on the road, which makes sense because they don’t score enough goals to justify being adventurous. They’ve got some very talented players in their team, especially in midfield, but I don’t rate their attack and expect them to both stagnate Ajax and most likely draw a blank themselves here.
My concern is that the occasion may get to young Costa Rican goalkeeper Alvarado for AZ Alkmaar as they miss number one Romero and his deputy Didulica for this game. However, it’s a risk I’m prepared to take as having witnessed Ajax’s inability to take their chances lately, I don’t envision him being too busy, to be frank! For me, this game has under 2.5 goals all over it and it’s decently priced at evens.
P.S. the last three games between these two sides at the Amsterdam ArenA have gone under 2.5 goals (all ending 1-0, bizarrely!) and five out of the last six meetings between these two sides in general have gone under 2.5 goals.
Team news – AFC Ajax Amsterdam miss Lodeiro, Vermeer, Bruno Silva, and El Hamdaoui whereas AZ Alkmaar miss Didulica, Martens, Romero, Wernbloom, and Viergever.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Legia Warsaw vs Polonia Warsaw – over 2.5 goals at 27/20.
Although it seemed impossible at the time, Legia Warsaw managed to concede three goals against a very unfamiliar and disorganised Cracovia Krakow side in their last game, drawing 3-3. Although the improvements in their team from an attacking perspective are very clear, their defence is still very vulnerable and a good attacking side like Polonia Warsaw is likely to be able to exploit that today. Of course, that was the case before the team news came out but now we can clearly see that half of their defence is missing with Jedzrzejczyk and Komorowski absent at the back, as well as long-term absentee Choto, not to mention Rybus and Borysiuk in midfield; nor the doubts over captain Vrdoljak. Not to put too fine a point on it, Legia are fucked defensively for this game!
Polonia Warsaw welcome back Mierzejewski and Tralka for this game, which boosts Polonia’s attacking game a lot. True, they drew a blank in their first Ekstraklasa match back after the break at home to Gornik Zabrze but to be fair, they were prioritising the home game with Lech Poznan a few days later in the Puchar Polski, which was ultimately pointless as they lost 1-2 due to some poor defending and a very good Lech Poznan display. Nonetheless, Polonia possess some very good players and should be a giant of the Ekstraklasa over the coming years if their owners stop being dickheads. You’ve all heard about owners interfering too much before, I’m sure? Well, Polonia Warsaw epitomise that, sacking managers for nothing and expecting wins at all times against all opponents. Manager Theo Bos is already under intense pressure despite having not been there long and his star striker Smolarek is too as a result. Sobiec and Mierzejewski can take some of the weight off Smolarek’s shoulders, especially with Coutinho sat behind them, but this is rapidly becoming a manager’s nightmare, to be in charge of Polonia Warsaw, and at somepoint, something is going to break and do a lot of damage in this team.
However, for the foreseeable future, we have a big Warsaw derby between two attacking sides that have an awful lot of potency in their respective line-ups so goals appear to be the name of the game today! I had great success with my over 2.5 goals call in the Ekstraklasa yesterday; it’d be a feather in my cap if I were to call two accurately in the same weekend as this is generally an unders league! Nonetheless, everything points towards plenty of goals and as long as the pressure doesn’t get to the players then we can expect plenty of goals in this game.
Team news – Legia Warsaw miss Choto, Rybus, Jedzrzejczyk, Borysiuk, and Komorowski.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 27/20.
Nieciecza vs Warta Poznan – away win with draw no bet at evens.
There’s one big factor that seperates these two sides and it’s called “quality”. True, they’re both lurking near the bottom of Liga 1 in Poland. However, Warta’s is due to poor form whereas Nieciecza’s is due to poor players. Warta have made great strides over the winter break to improve their fortunes, however, and have subsequently signed a lot of former Ekstraklasa players over the transfer window as a result of their chairman being changed to ex-model Izabella Lukomska-Pyzalska, making them a very rich club indeed, and as such, morale is much higher than it was and their quality level is even better. Who knows – perhaps now they won’t just have to rely on Zakrzewski and veteran Reiss in attack! Either way, the bookies don’t appear to be aware of this information or else Warta would be much shorter for this game so my call is the away win here with draw no bet cover at evens.
Verdict: Warta Poznan to win with draw no bet at evens.
SC Kriens vs Lugano – away win at evens.
Five wins from seven Challenge League away games already this season; anyone else get the impression that Lugano are too good to be in this division? If so, it’s because they are too good to be in this division and their promotion is frankly long overdue.
Host Kriens are the average Challenge League side; capable of the odd surprise but generally don’t score enough goals to trouble anyone, don’t attack enough to interest anyone, and don’t defend badly enough to be relegated. Lugano, on the other hand, attack fluently, score goals for fun, and defend very well indeed. They’ve demonstrated their aspirations this season by capturing Swedish starlet Hallenius on loan from Genoa although he’s still yet to make his debut due to injury. However, Lugano are a rapidly arising side and have great strength in depth so I have high hopes for their promotion this season.
Returning to this game in particular, however – Kriens will work hard here but they just don’t score enough goals, in my view. They lost Argentinian attacker Philippe to Ferrocarril Oeste in Argentina over the winter break and that’s impacted their attack. To make matters worse, the sullen and sulky number one Djukic finally got his desired move away from the club to Super League side Thun in the past week or so. However, this means yet another change for Kriens, who already had to juggle a lot of defenders over the transfer window and I just don’t think they have the ability to do that and still obtain a result against a very good Lugano side.
Lugano welcome back Felipe, Baldo, and Rey for this game, which is useful as Basic is suspended and Feussi is injured so they need all the depth that they can get. However, any attack with Alfonso and Senger in is going to score goals and that’s exactly what they’ve been doing all season long, just as they have been doing after the winter break too. Lugano have conceded for three consecutive games since the break but the fact that they’ve won them all tells you how strong their firepower is and that should be what wins them this game today.
Team news – Lugano miss Basic, Hallenius, Da Silva, and Feussi.
Verdict: Lugano to win at evens.
Sporting Braga vs SL Benfica – away win at 4/5.
Braga might have most of their previously-absent players back but that’s only going to help them in games that they can actually win i.e. games that aren’t played against Porto or Benfica. And today’s games is against…well, Benfica, so bad luck, Braga!
Influential midfielder Vandinho is back ont he sidelines, as is quintessential defender Elderson so Braga aren’t really back to full strength at all. The return of Paulo Cesar in attack will certainly have assisted them but a recent 0-0 draw at rock-bottom Naval de Maio tells you where Braga are currently; no-man’s land with confidence shot to shit! Only Uniao de Leiria and Sporting Clube de Lisboa in the top eight of the Liga Sagres table have conceded more goals at home than Braga have and although they do bring a great goal threat themselves, it’s hard to discern it from the nervous side that they’ve become and subsequently, I believe defeat is on the cards for them today.
Benfica miss Aimar for this game, which is a blow as the crafty Argentinian can unlock most defences in the most difficult of circumstances. However, the likes of Gaitan and Salvio are more than able deputies despite their tender years and have demonstrated such numerous times lately. Hell, we’ve not even seen Fernandez yet due to injury and he’s supposed to be the best of the lot so Benfica still have a very dangerous weapon to unleash at the opportune moment! With ideal target man Cardozo and pacey Saviola alongside him in attack and Jara there as back-up, this Benfica side is one of the most potent that they’ve had in years and are deservedly feared all over Portugal at the moment. There’s a good reason that Benfica have already won seven out of ten games on the road this season and it’s because they’re a very good side! Luisao bails them out in defence occasionally – they’d be lost without him – and yet Benfica still look dodgy at the back so don’t be surprised if they concede here.
However, just as they have done for eighteen consecutive games in all competitions, Benfica should still manage to outscore their opponents and win the game. I don’t know how they’ve continued this run for so long – the law of averages normally fucks sides up by this point! As long as they’re happy to keep winning, however, I’m happy to keep backing them because let’s face it – there’s only one side in Portugal that can match Benfica and that’s Porto. Benfica are fresh from yet another derby win against Sporting, who must be sick to death of even seeing their iconic red-and-white strip, so Benfica confidence is high and why not? Everything is going in their favour at the moment and the price of 4/5 on the away win here looks frankly irresistable with the above in mind.
Team news – Sporting Braga miss Quim, Vandinho, and Elderson whereas SL Benfica miss Peixoto, Amorim, and Aimar.
Verdict: SL Benfica to win at 4/5.