TFT Issue 3956!

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory

KO: 03:00 (UK time)

I’m supposed to be impressed with Victory picking up a couple of wins lately but I’m not. They have the same problems as before – don’t commit men forward, barely create chances, and still don’t have any playmakers with Brimmer and Nani basically out for the season. It’s not a surprise to me that the Aussie media have been reporting that Popovic is to be replaced at the end of the season, although interestingly it’s Phoenix boss Talay that they’re convinced will be his replacement. A former Sydney FC man at the helm of Victory, huh? A bold move, if true, but he would get more out of this group, and he is out of contract at the end of the season. Furthermore, the New Zealand job is no longer available so there may be some truth to the rumour.

As far as today goes, I think Victory are in trouble. Phoenix are good at winning games at home. What I mean by that is that they know when to hit teams hard, and when to retreat. I can’t say that I am particularly comfortable with them sitting back to defend leads anymore; I find that they give too many chances away. However, that tends to happen against teams that actually apply pressure, which Victory simply don’t do.

Therefore, assuming Phoenix go ahead in this game – and I think they will – then they should win it. Don’t pay any mind to the 5-1 defeat in Adelaide last time out. Yes, they could have done better at the back but they more than matched their hosts on the day but were more wasteful with their chances, which was largely because star striker Zawada was in hospital whilst his wife was giving birth. The big Pole is back now, and when he plays, they score. Talay has a fully fit squad so I’ve no reason to doubt Phoenix hitting Victory hard in the first-half, creating chances, and scoring goals.

I suspect the Kiwis will then sit on their lead, and that they’ll find it easier to do so than normal for reasons already mentioned. Keep in mind that Victory are also missing Romero through suspension so if Fornaroli has a bad game, they’ve no viable alternatives given the gradual ostracising of Juric. Don’t get me wrong here; Victory have some really good individuals in their squad, capable of deciding games. However, Popovic’s style simply doesn’t work anymore, and this is coming from someone who rates him as one of the best managers in the A-League.

As much as I may live to regret saying these words, I feel like there’s an inevitability about this contest because Victory are slow and predictable, and Phoenix know how to manage games better than they do, not to mention hurt teams better. Say what you like about Talay, but his teams work bloody hard, and they’re going to make this uncomfortable for their opponents. One way or another, I have to believe that Phoenix will win this one, and 7/5 on the home win suits me just fine.

Verdict: Wellington Phoenix to win at 7/5.

Sydney FC vs Western United

KO: 09:45 (UK time)

Trusting Western United this season has been tough. They’ve been predictable, been ‘found out’, and too many big players haven’t shown up for them. The rumour mill suggests that the likes of Lacroix have fallen out with boss Aloisi. I don’t know how true that is, but it’s the best way to explain how the reigning champions have gone from serious contenders to absolute jokes.

One thing that has encouraged me about the Melbourne outfit of late though is the formation switch. Don’t get me wrong; they don’t look especially comfortable in a 4-4-2 after playing a 4-2-3-1 for so long. They really do leave themselves too open at the back, and good attacks won’t struggle to get at them. Fortunately, Sydney FC are as bland as they come, although Burgess’ return from suspension does make me a little edgy – he’s been superb from the bench this season. Le Fondre is also back in the squad, and his absence has been a sore point for them for weeks now. I’m not so sure that he’ll be in any condition to start but Corica is pretty desperate by now, having attempted to use everybody in his squad barring his backup striker to replace Le Fondre, including left-back Caballo. Even with Le Fondre though, they still look predictable – if you stop Mak and Lolley cutting inside, Sydney FC are toothless. I’d like to think that even Western United can handle that.

So why do I like Western United’s 4-4-2? Simple – goals. Pairing youngster Botic with Prijovic has worked really, really well. The youngster is actually outshining the Serbian at the moment, which isn’t something I thought I’d be saying. I can’t really believe that Aloisi would willingly switch formation unless he felt he had no other choice so it’s like he readily accepts they’ll concede now, and instead wants to try and outscore teams. As much as I criticise Western United for their boring style of play, they are absolutely ruthless in front of goal so their increased chances are seeing them score more goals, which is why I’d consider taking them seriously here.

On paper, I do think that Sydney FC are better. However, Corica is in charge, and that automatically makes The Sky Blues pretty damn crap, to be frank. I’m not the biggest fan of Aloisi but at least I understand what he’s trying to do. Quite what Corica is trying to do is anybody’s guess, really. Sydney FC have more match-winners but Western United have better structure and preparation, and thus I believe they’ve got a better chance of getting something at the Allianz than the bookies do.

It’d be wrong of me to write Sydney FC off; they’re capable when they want to be. However, with their embarrassing showing in the 4-0 derby drubbing fresh in my memory, and the fact that they’re trying to rush Le Fondre back because they can’t cope without him, I just can’t take the proposition of the home win as seriously as perhaps I should. Again, they’ve got the players to make it happen, but they lack mobility, conviction, and balance. The absence of Retre in midfield is a big problem too; he’s the only one of them that knows how to defend.

As long as Western United hold their shape well, and take the chances that come their way, then they really shouldn’t lose this game. I can pick fault with the visitors all day long this season, but they’re still in far better shape than their hosts, hence my interest in this selection.

Verdict: Western United to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 27/25.

Hannover 96 vs SV Sandhausen

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

Is it just me that thinks Sandhausen are priced too long here? Ok, they’re bottom of the table but let’s not just suddenly forgot the players that they’ve got, the way they improved before the St. Pauli massacre, and the experience they have in beating the drop. This is the time of the season when they tend to shine, you know? Seeing them priced as long as they are here against a Hannover 96 side that almost always fails to deliver when heavy favourites is just bizarre to me. The home win isn’t impossible, of course, but I don’t think it should be as fancied as it is; Hannover 96 have been just as poor at winning matches as Sandhausen have!

Hannover 96 have only managed two wins against Sandhausen in their previous seven attempts. That doesn’t surprise me; Sandhausen are annoying to play against when your approach is to play ultra cautiously all of the time, which is precisely what Hannover 96 do. Alright, the tables are slightly different here because Sandhausen really need wins rather than draws, but who is to say they can’t do it? The two Kinsombis and Esswein are more than capable of getting them the points that they need.

Since Oral took over, there’s been a noteworthy improvement in attitude and effectiveness from Sandhausen. Yes, the St. Pauli game was a disaster, but other than that they’ve impressed me. They’ve looked back to their stubborn best, and have annoyed the hell out of teams that should be too good for them. Say what you like about Sandhausen, but few Bundesliga 2 teams possess their resilience nor togetherness, and I believe that’s now back in their camp. Whether it’s enough to keep them up or not remains to be seen, but I would not bet against it.

I mean, what do they have to fear from Hannover 96 here? Sure, the home team have some players on their books that should be playing in the Bundesliga like Teuchert and Nielsen, not to mention Zieler. The problem I have with treating Hannover 96 as a sleeping giant is that they don’t play well. Not recently, and not last match – but ever. They just don’t play good football. They’re far too cowardly by nature, create far too few chances to showcase the talents of their supreme attackers, and struggle like crazy whenever they concede.

I should fear Hannover 96 a lot more than I do – but I don’t. They’re too predictable. They haven’t laid a glove on any opponent in 2023. Alright, they gave Paderborn 07 a run for their money but let’s be honest; Paderborn 07 invited them to do so. Everybody else has found it scarily easy to anticipate and counteract Hannover 96. Why should Sandhausen be any different? Hannover 96 should be a good team but they’re quite simply not; that’s the reality here.

Therefore, I’m happy enough to give Sandhausen a chance here; they shouldn’t lose in Saxony.

Verdict: SV Sandhausen to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 49/50.

Servette vs Young Boys Bern 

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

I’m looking forward to this one, folks. Young Boys Bern usually find trips to Geneva really challenging, and with defensive problems all over the place for the capital club right now, I think this game will be similar.

That said, it’s a good time to face Servette. The home team have lost key midfielder Douline to injury – again, and their midfield lacks a proper balance without the Frenchman. It’s not just that, either. His absence leaves their back four more exposed, and they’ve not had a good, reliable centre-back pairing this season, accentuated by the fact that Severin has been a regular. It’s been far too easy to get at Servette’s back four, and far too easy to score against them too, which is unusual for a team with such a good possession game. Therefore, it is a good time to face Servette.

However, one could also make the argument that it’s a good time to face Young Boys Bern too. Cards on the table – their dominant derby win against FC Basel last time out was their only good display of 2023. Even in other alleged ‘drubbings’ they really had to ride their luck, you know? This team gives away too many chances too, and they don’t control games like they used to either. Servette will get chances here, in other words, and they’re more than capable of taking them – that’s something they haven’t struggled with this season.

I think it’s rather poignant to note that Young Boys Bern don’t have a left-back here too. Garcia is suspended and Benito is still injured so I have to assume that third-choice right-back Maceiras will step in at left-back, which is not ideal when you consider that he’ll be up against Servette’s most dangerous creative threat, Stevanovic. Keep in mind that Camara still isn’t fit for the visitors, and now Lustenberger is a doubt too, meaning Zesiger’s defensive partner is likely to be youngster Amenda, which is far from ideal. In the past, Lauper would have stepped in but there’s something going on with defensive midfielder Niasse at the moment so Lauper has been deployed there instead, which is his more natural role. On top of that, consider that regular shot stopper von Ballmoos will be out for the rest of the season so the reliance on Racioppi remains, and all of those factors combined against Stevanovic, Kutesa, Bedia – well, suffice to say that I will be surprised if Servette don’t bag a goal or two here.

However, let’s give the soon-to-be-champions their due respect here; they’re natural goal-scorers. I may criticise their inability to control games properly but I cannot criticise their attack. I’ve seen them steamroller teams this season despite the games themselves being extremely even, which was certainly the case against both St. Gallen and FC Winterthur. The simple truth of the matter is that no strikers in the Super League compare to Nsame, Elia, and Itten, especially not when being fed by Fassnacht, Rieder, and Ugrinic. Say what you like about Young Boys Bern, or Wicky’s time in charge – they score goals, whether they play well or not.

Still, the modern day Servette isn’t one I trust as much as I used to. It’s clear that the club feels the same way too; they’ve already announced that seasoned manager Geiger will leave at the end of the season, and have already announced his successor. They seem to have a lack of confidence in certain players that they…well, shouldn’t have a lack of confidence in. Diallo, for example. He’s been superb, for my money, and yet the club swooped to loan former academy graduate Mbabu on loan in January. Why? I get that Mbabu is better, but there’s no realistic chance of Servette being able to buy him, and Diallo was doing a sterling job, so what was the point of that venture? There are plenty of other examples too.

Despite my concerns over Servette and their defensive instability though, I do trust their capacity to hurt teams. They play good football when they want to. They create chances very easily, and they score goals very easily too. I feel like their form guide being as unconvincing as it is has actually created some kind of veil that prevents folks from seeing just how good Bedia has been since returning from injury. He allows them to go over the top of defenders instead of playing through them, and that’s a fine weapon to have.

Anyway, I could rabbit about these two teams all night but I probably lost you all at the second paragraph! suffice to say that I fancy goals here; I don’t think either side is in a position to contain the other, and both are far better in the final third anyway.

Verdict: Over 3 Asian goals at 51/50.