TFT Issue 3958!

Derby or not, I can’t help but fancy Young Boys Bern here.

Let’s not pretend that the visitors are anything on what they used to be; they’re not. They’re cruising in the Super League because they’ve got the best finishers in the division, and nobody else can string three wins together. They’re the best of a poor bunch, to be frank. Should they lose Nsame and Itten without replacing them then you’d see a very different team, and I say that in full knowledge of the fact that Fassnacht and Rieder are amongst the best creators in the Super League.

Young Boys Bern don’t control games, for starters. They used to, but they don’t anymore. The vast majority of their games this season have been even affairs that they’ve simply had better finishers in, including the purported drubbings they’ve dished to out St. Gallen, FC Winterthur, and others. I wouldn’t call them ‘lucky’; they simply have access to better attackers, and that’s what decides games in their favour, generally speaking. That was not the case last weekend; bogey team Servette beat them 2-1 in Geneva despite Young Boys Bern producing arguably their best showing in western Switzerland for many years but they could not get past Frick often enough.

However, the only all-encompassing display they’ve put in this season was a couple of weeks ago – against FC Basel. Alright, they were at home for that contest, but it was as one-sided a match as you’ll see outside of FC Sion this season. 8-0 would not have been an unfair scoreline. To rub salt in the wound, FC Basel lost Zeqiri to a bad injury in that match. The game was just a massacre though. FC Basel could not cope with tonight’s opposition, and I’m not sure it’ll be any different in the Schweizer Pokal here.

On large, I think that Vogel has done well since taking over at FC Basel. They’ve been winning games more often, even if their overall displays haven’t improved. They’re still not very good though. I mean, watching their win against FC Winterthur at the weekend was like watching paint dry. Ok, I admit that FC Winterthur make it hard for teams to break them down by sitting deep and countering, but FC Basel looked like they had no idea that’s what they would do, which was staggering. Winning is all that matters, I guess, but I’m still not sure how they managed that in a game of very few chances.

Injuries are beginning to mount for FC Basel, as are the questionable calls of Vogel. Comas still isn’t fit, and they don’t have a centre-back that Vogel trusts so he’s done some weird shit over time, including dropping Frei back (not the first FC Basel manager to do it, admittedly). Frei is injured now though, so he’s had to get creative. Rather than trust Adams, he opted to stick left-back Calafiori at centre-back at the weekend, and to rely upon Pelmard, who has not been good in 2023. Honestly, this defence of FC Basel’s just looks more and more suspect as time goes by.

Burger is back from illness but is suspended, not that Vogel seems to want to play him. I would imagine that Xhaka will sit instead. Novoa’s likely absence is a problem; Vogel trusts the young winger more than some of those available to him that are not improving or are not consistent e.g. Millar, N’Doye. Despite some good names in their squad, FC Basel just don’t operate all that effectively. I think they’ll be a bit annoying for Young Boys Bern here, and that they’ll be competitive, but I can’t imagine for a second how they intend to have a better conversion rate than their opponents, who are the kings at it.

Therefore, even though they’re away from home in this big derby, the away win at 6/5 is appealing – FC Basel don’t have what it takes to do well in big games anymore, at least not domestically.