TFT Issue 3959!

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Manchester United vs Brentford

KO: (UK time)

I’m a big United fan, folks, but I can scarcely believe my eyes for the odds you can get on Brentford here. Whether the pick comes in or not, backing the capital club has to be the way to go here.

Ten Hag has done a fabulous job at United; let me start off by saying that. He’s made a squad with no depth play a new brand of football, and do so exceedingly well. They’ve played beyond their level, to be frank, and he’s covering up vulnerabilities extremely well. However, we’ve ran into a situation that Ten Hag’s wizardry is simply not capable of solving, and that’s nothing against him. United simply don’t have enough depth, and that’s been a problem all season long. Frankly, I’m astounded it’s taken as long as this to show, given the fixture congestion.

You want to know what the big problem United have is? Central midfield. When Casemiro and Eriksen are both out, United cannot play through a press. One of their most redeeming features this season has been that they can do that, enough so to stop teams from even trying it. Without both, United are too easy to press. Fulham did a marvellous job on them in the FA Cup, and really should have won the game; it wasn’t even a close contest – United looked knackered, and Fulham were excellent. Luckily, Mitrovic and Willian caused an implosion of sorts. Newcastle United were not so generous at the weekend though, harassing United too much for them to play out, and there was no sign of a riposte because of it.

No playing through the press = limited Rashford, dropping Fernandes deeper to try and help out, and it exposes Weghorst as a bang average target man. United cannot play this way. They need midfielders that can receive the ball in midfield, and turn on it. Without that, they’re too easy to play against, and barring a miracle, I don’t believe Eriksen will suddenly be back here. If he was close, he’d have made the bench at the weekend so I think that Brentford will have a lot of fun here.

Brentford destroyed United at the start of the season but oddly that doesn’t really factor in tonight’s pick. Back then, they were a settled team, playing at home against an unfamiliar group that were asked to play a way that they had no confidence to play. It was men vs boys, for the most part. Now both teams are settled, and if United had more a central midfield, then I think Brentford would be punished here for their adventurousness.

However, there is no central midfield to speak of. Therefore, I have to believe that Brentford’s energy levels, stamina, and sheer desire will cause United multiple headaches. For what it’s worth, I think United’s defence is really solid, and that Brentford will have to work hard to score here. De Gea is in excellent form, and Martinez/Varane look unbeatable at times, as does Shaw. With Wan-Bissaka likely to miss out again though, Dalot could be the weak point that Brentford ultimately get joy from – he’s not been the same since returning from the World Cup.

I just think that Brentford will find this game a lot easier than they should because of the timing of it. It’s not complicated to defeat an Eriksen/Casemiro-less United team press high, play with intensity, and you’ll get more chances than they do. United are beginning to run on empty because of fixture congestion, which has resulted in some big players not showing up. I can only see this as a big opportunity for Brentford to get a heroic result at Old Trafford, and even if they don’t, it’d take a really unusual set of circumstances for United to handicap them at this moment in time.

Verdict: Brentford to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 77/100.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

Australian A-League:

Melbourne City – Jamieson is available despite being sent off last match. Van der Venne, Sulemani, and Leckie are absent. Reis is a doubt.
Melbourne Victory – Brooks and Geria are doubts. Nani, Brimmer, and Bozinovski are absent. Romero returns.

Czechia Liga 1:

Baumit Jablonec – Kratochvil and Malinsky are absent. Krob and Houska are doubts.
Slovacko – Kohut is absent.

English Premier League:

West Ham United – Scamacca is a doubt.
Newcastle United – Almiron, Fraser, and Krafth are absent. Willock is a doubt.
Manchester United Casemiro, Greenwood, Garnacho, Heaton, and van de Beek are absent. Eriksen is a doubt.
Brentford – Ajer and Lewis-Potter are absent. Janelt is a doubt.

Finnish Veikkausliiga:

HJK – Meriluoto returns. Ylitova is a doubt. Halme, Roope Riski, and Kouassivi-Benissan are absent.
FC Honka Espoo – No absentees.
KuPS – New boss – Tuutti.
Inter Turku – No absentees.
SJK – Vainionpaa is absent. Streng is a doubt.
Haka Valkeakoski – Rogerson, Yli-Hietanen, Whyte, and Boukassi are doubts.
IFK Mariehamn – No news.
Ilves – No news.
VPS – No news.
FC Lahti – No news.
KTP – No absentees.
AC Oulu – No absentees.

French Coupe de France:

FC Nantes Atlantique Hadjam, Merlin, and Traore are absent.
Olympique Lyonnais – Gusto is absent. Sarr is a doubt.

German DFB Pokal:

Nurnberg – S. Blum, Flick, Mathenia, Schleimer, and Wekesser are absent.
VfB Stuttgart – Aidonis, Beyaz, Kuol, Schock, and Sosa are absent.
RB Leipzig – Gulacsi, Nickisch, Nkunku, Schlieck, and X. Schlager are absent. Poulsen is a doubt.
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund – Adeyemi, Coulibaly, Duranville, Gurpuz, Kamara, Lotka, Morey, Papadopoulos, N. Schlotterbeck, N. Schulz, and Unbehaun are absent. Haller is a doubt.

Italian Serie B:

Perugia Dell’Orco and Olivieri are absent.
Reggina – Majer and Pierozzi are absent. Menez is a doubt.

Portuguese Liga 1:

Gil Vicente  – Kritsyuk and Alipour are absent.
Sporting Clube de Portugal – Cabral, Braganca, and Bellerin are absent.

Spanish Copa del Rey:

Barcelona – Christensen, Dembele, Pedri, and de Jong are absent.
Real Madrid – Mendy is absent. Diaz is a doubt.

Swiss Schweizer Pokal:

Servette – Diallo, Douline, Magnin, Fofana are doubts. Crivelli is absent. Rodelin returns.
Lugano – Mai is absent. Mahou, Nkada, Mahmoud, Saipi, and Morosoli are doubts.

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

Copa Libertadores:

Aucas vs Flamengo (5) 1-2
Patronato vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (5) 0-1
Cerro Porteno vs Barcelona Guayaquil (5) 2-2
Nublense vs Racing Club Avellaneda (5) 0-1
Bolivar La Paz vs Palmeiras (6) 1-2
Sporting Cristal vs Fluminense (6) 0-0
Deportivo Pereira vs Colo Colo (5) 2-1

Copa Sudamericana:

Danubio vs Emelec Guayaquil (5) 0-0
Fortaleza vs Palestino (6) 1-0
Oriente Petrolero vs Estudiantes de la Plata (5) 2-1
America Mineiro vs Penarol Montevideo (4) 1-2
Gimnasia de la Plata vs Union de Deportes (6) 1-0
Atletico Huracan vs Guarani Asuncion (5) 1-1

Australian A-League:

Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory (5) 1-1 (starts from minute 21 at 1-0)

Czechia Liga 1:

Baumit Jablonec vs Slovacko (5) 0-1

English Premier League:

West Ham United vs Newcastle United (6) 0-1
Manchester United vs Brentford (4) 2-2

Finnish Veikkausliiga:

HJK vs FC Honka Espoo (5) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
KuPS vs Inter Turku (5) 1-1
SJK vs Haka Valkeakoski (6) 1-0
IFK Mariehamn vs Ilves (5) 0-0
VPS vs FC Lahti (5) 2-1
KTP vs AC Oulu (6) 0-0

French Coupe de France:

FC Nantes Atlantique vs Olympique Lyonnais (4) 2-2

German DFB Pokal:

Nurnberg vs VfB Stuttgart (6) 0-0
RB Leipzig vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund (5) over 2.5 goals

Italian Coppa Italia:

Cremonese vs ACF Fiorentina (5) 0-1

Italian Serie B:

Perugia vs Reggina (6) 1-1

Lithuanian A Lyga:

Kauno Zalgiris vs Dziugas Telisiai (6) 2-0
Riteriai vs Banga Gargzdai (6) 1-0
Suduva Marijampole vs Dainava (6) 2-0

Dutch KNVB Beker:

Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game

Portuguese Liga 1:

Gil Vicente vs Sporting Clube de Portugal (4) 1-1

Spanish Copa del Rey:

Barcelona vs Real Madrid (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game

Swiss Schweizer Pokal:

Servette vs Lugano (5) 2-1

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