TFT Issue 3962!

Free

Bankers

General Information

We aim to give you the best possible information before each game. However, the moment the game starts, anything can happen, ranging from red cards to snow storms to pitch invasions. We can only prepare you for so much; it's up to you to learn how to develop yourself as to know when to jump ship if things aren't going as they should.

Pay attention to the odds provided for each tip. Be aware that the longer the odds are, the less chance there is of it coming in. Don't lean toward backing the bankers containing teams you've heard of or selections at longer odds because you trust the team more or if you see the pound signs flashing before your eyes. Sometimes bankers won't win, try to use the previews to steer you toward the right selection to make rather than taking the quick/lazy way.

Please understand that every single tip has the capacity to win, push, or lose. We aim to find good value bets (probability vs odds) as our focal area.

Banker

Young Boys Bern vs Grasshopper Zurich 

KO: (UK time)

I may not rate Young Boys Bern all that highly right now, and I’m sure as hell not reading too much into yet another win against soulless FC Basel. However, I do trust Young Boys Bern to score goals, particularly at home. They may not dominate teams like they used to, but they’ve got the best finishers in the Super League, and Grasshopper Zurich just aren’t smart enough tactically to stop teams from playing, which is probably why Contini has said enough’s enough; he’s leaving at the end of the season. I can only see Young Boys Bern winning this game, one way or another.

Verdict: Young Boys Bern to win at 3/10.

Banker

Barcelona vs Girona 

KO: (UK time)

Catalan derby or not, a Barcelona win should be on the cards here. Girona are running low on players, and Barcelona need to bounce back from the Real Madrid game. I’m sure it’ll be a tight, feisty affair, as Catalan derbies usually are, but I can’t see beyond a Barcelona win because of the quality gap.

Verdict: Barcelona to win at 3/10.

Featured game

Hapoel Be’er Sheva vs Maccabi Tel-Aviv 

KO: (UK time)

If either of these two fierce Ligat Ha’al rivals have any intention whatsoever of winning the title, then they must win this game. The loser is out of the title race because Maccabi Haifa are simply too far ahead of the rest, to be honest. Even if there’s a winner in this contest then they’ll still find it tough to catch Maccabi Haifa. Still, neither of these outfits are the kind to give up. Hapoel Be’er Sheva are a very industrious, passionate team, and Maccabi Tel-Aviv are…well, a bit more corrupt than that, but no less resourceful and creative in their ways to win games.

There’s not much between the two teams on paper. I think I’d have to favour Maccabi Tel-Aviv because of the financial backing they have; they’re always able to sign players that Hapoel Be’er Sheva could only dream of. However, what the home team lack in backing, they make up for in having a group of motivated individuals that give a shit. To me, that makes it even more impressive that they’ve somehow managed to lasso the likes of Suleymanov, for example – you don’t get into a Barda team without working bloody hard, and without wanting it a lot.

Therefore, as much as the visitors should fancy their chances of winning this game, I wouldn’t necessarily trust them to do so. I can’t deny that Zahavi is the best player in the division when it suits him, and that Jovanovic has been an astute signing, but I just don’t see Maccabi Tel-Aviv sweating blood and tears like their hosts do. As capable as Kanichowsky, Guiagnon etc. are at the right moments, there’s still a lack of togetherness that Karanka has not yet managed to solve. They’re good, Maccabi Tel-Aviv, but not on a par with the team that they used to be.

I always get the impression that derbies like this matter more to Hapoel Be’er Sheva. They’re working harder than ever at the moment, which is to be expected when you consider that it’s a Barda team, and he loves this club more than any other. Somehow he gets the most out of players that aren’t that good. The one he’s had the most success with in recent times is Safuri in midfield; he’s become an integral player for them. You all should know how good Suleymanov is without my input, and Hatuel has come on well too. Klimala and Hemed are pretty average target men nowadays but there’s plenty of service in this squad so chances come regularly enough.

Defensively, I’m not convinced by Hapoel Be’er Sheva. Then again, I seldom am. They’re old and slow, injury-prone, and often abandoned by a team that likes to attack a lot. Conceding goals comes far too naturally to tonight’s hosts, and that’s not a handy characteristic to be in possession of when hosting one of the better Israeli teams, although interestingly enough Maccabi Tel-Aviv have not bagged on their past three visits to Be’er Sheva. They can’t afford to let that statistic continue here though, and their hosts will give chances away. Keep in mind that one of Hapoel Be’er Sheva’s regular defenders this season – Elias – is out.

Yeini is suspended for the visitors, and Saborit is injured, meaning that the visitors have question marks about their own back four. I don’t see a natural left-back to replace the Spaniard, and although they have options in the middle of defence, I still think that Yeini lends them a calmness and experience that the others don’t always. There’s certainly enough reason for Hapoel Be’er Sheva to believe in their own capacity to score goals tonight.

Given that both teams realistically must win this game, and that both look far better prepared to attack than defend, I’ll chance my arm on over 2.5 goals at 21/20.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 21/20.

Additional games

Lugano vs St. Gallen

KO: (UK time)

I don’t like opposing Lugano in Ticino but there are too many elements here that make me want to do it – so I will.

Firstly, Lugano were in action in the Schweizer Pokal midweek. They normally do have a big enough squad to rotate accordingly, but they don’t have that luxury right now because of absentees. I don’t remember the last time that they had a fully fit squad, actually, and now they’ve lost defender Mai for the season too. Rotation is necessary – and yet there’s only some positions in which they can do it. For example, Babic isn’t trusted as Celar’s replacement so Croci-Torti doesn’t do it, even when the Slovenian is injured (which he is today, actually, although he may return in time). Another example is full-back Espionza – he’s not attentive enough defensively so Croci-Torti doesn’t trust him to play, meaning they’ll need an artful solution at right-back with Arigoni suspended – it may be a wing-back formation with Macek there instead, or possibly a game out of position for the returning Hajrizi.

Secondly, absentees/potential absentees are a problem here. I’ve mentioned Arigoni and Mai being out – that’s half of their defensive mainstays out. They lack options in attacking midfield too with Nkanda and Mahou injured, meaning they’ll have to rely on Aliseda again. He was superb midweek but Croci-Torti doesn’t 100% trust him yet. Returning playmaker Steffen should start, but fellow creator Bottani is another that is doubtful, meaning Bislimi may have to play (who was not good last time out). I don’t know what they’ll do up front if Celar doesn’t make it – most likely play Amoura there again for his energy.

Thirdly, Lugano lack consistency at the moment, and I believe it’s because of their high number of absentees. They’ve had to juggle their formation and personnel so many times in 2023 already. I still regard them as a very difficult side to beat, but it’s hard for me to consider the home win as a realistic proposition here whilst they have the above complications to contend with. I respect them, but I don’t fear them at the present time.

I’ve found it hard to trust St. Gallen in 2023; I have to be honest there. Zeidler has made some really weird calls in this calendar year that I just don’t understand, including the benching of Sutter. However, having said that, this is a team with an extraordinary offensive arsenal. Even without von Moos and Dajaku, they’ve still got Akolo, Latte Lath, Geubbels, Guillemenot, and numerous others to call upon. Therefore, containing St. Gallen is tough, whether they’re playing well or not.

The biggest problem St. Gallen have experienced this season has been replacing Schubert though. I thought he’d be back by now but not yet. Azevedo, Schneider, and plenty of others have been trialled in his position behind the front two but none of them can do it like he can, and they do miss someone to link up play properly. The rest of their issues have, in my opinion, been caused by Zeidler himself.

Still, this is a fine opportunity for St. Gallen to win in the south of Switzerland. They’ve had over a week to prepare for this game, they’re fresher, they’re a very intense team, and they’ve got more of an attacking threat. They haven’t been as consistent as I’d like in 2023, but they should view this as a remarkably good opportunity to win at a difficult venue, and with draw no bet odds of 9/10 available on them doing so, I can’t pass up this chance.

Verdict: St. Gallen to win with draw no bet at 9/10.

FC Winterthur vs Luzern 

KO: (UK time)

Circumstances favour FC Winterthur here. Had they Ramizi available, I might have considered backing them with draw no bet. I know they’ve got Burkart and Ltaief back so they’ve some semblance of a counter-attack available but I also fear Luzern suppressing them because that’s what they tend to do in away games via a strong possession game, led by Jashari and Beloko. Therefore, counter opportunities could be harder to come by, and if that element goes then FC Winterthur just won’t threaten; they don’t play that way. Ifs, buts, and maybes there, folks – that’s why the 1×2 market is off-limits for me here.

Ordinarily I’d fancy Luzern to win a game like this. I mean, beating FC Winterthur nowadays is about having patience, good passing, and good finishing – and Luzern have two of those in abundance. They do lack a natural finisher because their only consistently good one – Sorgic – is out of favour with Frick, and thus resides on the bench nowadays. Don’t underestimate their capacity to control games, though – Luzern have become really good at that under the Liechtenstein legend.

Still, if I were forced, I would back FC Winterthur over Luzern here. I believe that the visitors have too many problems here, and not enough solutions. I’ve already mentioned that they’ve benched Sorgic, and prefer to field midfielders up front rather than attackers nowadays (Schurpf and Chader usually). Well, now they’ve lost one of their right-siders Dorn to suspension, key defender Simani to suspension (hit with a 3-match ban for being sent off in a friendly – don’t even ask), and they’re still yet to get Burch anywhere near his best following injury so their defence is not in great shape.

By far Luzern’s biggest problem today is the playmaker position though. The sole reason they’ve not missed Kadak in the months he’s been out is because Max Meyer has been outrageously good. However, now he’s suspended too, and there is no replacement with Kadak still out. I don’t honestly know what Frick will do here; either a formation switch, or to drop Schurpf back. Either way, Luzern are not going to unlock the FC Winterthur defence without precise passing, and it’s difficult to see who is going to do that.

So again, I favour FC Winterthur. I don’t trust them enough to get a positive result though. Burkart, Di Giusto, and Ltaief should be great support for Ardaiz (in theory) but two of them haven’t played in weeks, and it’s impossible to know what kind of condition they’ll be in. Therefore, trusting FC Winterthur here seems a risk not worth taking, much as though I think that the tactical layout of this encounter favours them considerably.

Instead, I much prefer the under 2.5 goals approach. FC Winterthur will sit and counter here; it’s what they’ve done for most of 2023, and I don’t see Berner being bold enough to hit Luzern with a 4-4-2. They’ll fancy their chances against Luzern without risking a lot because of their absentees, and they won’t want to fall behind. This is the kind of team to sit on a 1-0 lead (if they get it. I think they’d have to do something badly wrong to concede against Luzern, given the circumstances. I also think that they played well against FC Basel at the weekend, and that they were unlucky to lose.

With the above in mind, this game should go under 2.5 goals. I don’t see either side pushing for more goals, should they manage to take the lead.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 51/50.

Tromso vs Molde FK

KO: (UK time)

A trip to the Alfheim is never a particularly pleasant proposition – well, not from a footballing perspective at least. A plastic pitch inside the Arctic Circle? No, thank you. Still, this is arguably the best time to do it, given that there’s no travel problem, and at this stage of the season Tromso are usually still trying to figure out how to replace the players that they’ve had to sell to keep the club afloat. Molde FK should be able to capitalise, really.

Pre-season, Tromso lost a number of important players. Star striker Mikkelsen left for Hammarby, star midfielder Kitolano joined today’s opposition Molde FK, and defensive regular Kamenzi signed for Toulouse – that’s three players they simply cannot replace straight off the bat. They’ve loaned young Icelandic attacker Mikaelsson from Venezia to try and help themselves out in the final third, and I’ll sit on the fence for that one. In short though, I expect Tromso to find this game very hard indeed.

One thing to keep in mind is that Tromso are a very industrious and passionate team. No matter who is/isn’t playing, nobody gets an easy ride in the far north. The home team are known for leaving themselves a bit open at the back but also playing with a lot of heart and attacking intent, and with a class act like Jenssen pulling the strings, they’re never far away from having good chances.

Still – their incoming players this season have been more risks and gambles than anything. They usually do enough to keep themselves going so I don’t doubt Tromso, per se. However, it’s impossible for me to accept that they’ve found like-for-like replacements, and that should mean teething issues here. Unfortunately for them, they’re up against one of Norway’s best teams, and it goes without saying that change is always harder in such games.

Molde FK made changes pre-season too but they had no issues. In fact, I’d argue that they’ve strengthened, not weakened. As you’ve all no doubt seen, Fofana left for Chelsea. They also lost Hussain, who joined Apollon Limassol for an easier life. With Berisha and Kitolano amongst those to join though, it’s hard to be downcast because this Molde FK team is loaded with match-winners, to be frank. I do want to see what they do up front, though. For me, there’s no ‘natural’ striker in their squad, which isn’t ideal. Sometimes last season Fofana had to carry them because they weren’t penetrating enough due to a lack of directness. I don’t see that being a problem for this game, but it could be against better teams, with all due respect to Tromso.

I doubt there’s a better midfield in all of Norway than what Molde FK have access to now though. They’ve got so many options to call upon, and Eikrem to pull the strings. I suspect they’ll dominate possession in most games because of this strength of theirs, and with the proviso that their overlapping full-backs/wing-backs are still getting up and down the line regularly, they should do plenty of damage to opposing teams.

For me, the timing of this game makes an away win likely. I think Molde FK will control the game, create better chances, and hopefully score more goals. I like the wildness and robustness of Tromso but I have real concerns about their capacity to replace those that they’ve lost pre-season. For me, 9/10 on the away win is worth considering.

Verdict: Molde FK to win at 9/10.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

Australian A-League:

Melbourne City – Sulemani, van der Venne, Leckie, and Jamieson are absent. Reis is a doubt.
Wellington Phoenix – Old is absent.

Bulgarian A PFG:

Pirin Blagoevgrad – Andrey Yordanov is absent. Makretskis returns.
Arda – No news.
CSKA 1948 Sofia – No news.
Botev Plovdiv – No news.

Danish Superligaen:

Randers – Hoegh, Kamara, and Lauenborg are absent.
FC Copenhagen – Babacar, Amoo, Cornelius, Boilesen, Larsson, and Zeca are absent.
FC Nordsjaelland – No absentees.
Brondby – No absentees.
Aalborg BK – No absentees.
OB – Riis is absent.
FC Midtjylland – Ludewig is absent. Pedersen, Poulsen, and Molgaard Jorgensen are doubts.
Lyngby – No absentees.

Israeli Ligat Ha’al:

Hapoel Be’er Sheva – Solomon, Elias, Abu-Abeid, Dadia, and Martins are absent.
Maccabi Tel-Aviv – Yeini and Saborit are absent. 

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Rosenborg BK – No news.
Viking Stavanger – No news.
Aalesund FK – Ammitzboll is absent.
Valerenga Oslo – Borchgrevink is absent.
Hamarkameratene – Dunn-Johnson is absent.
Sandefjord – Foss is absent.
Lillestrom SK – No news.
Stromsgodset – No news.
Sarpsborg 08 – No news.
Bodo/Glimt – Fet and Vetti are absent.
Stabaek – No news.
Odd – No news.
Tromso – Traore is a doubt.
Molde FK – Sinyan is absent.
Brann Bergen – No news.
Haugesund – No news.

Portuguese Liga 1:

Gil Vicente – Alipour and Kritsyuk are absent.
Chaves – Edu is absent. Obiora is a doubt.

Spanish Primera Liga:

Barcelona – Dembele, Christensen, Pedri, and de Jong are absent.
Girona – Herrera, Kebe, Reinier, and Roca are absent. A. Garcia, B.Garcia, and Callens are doubts.

Swedish Allsvenskan:

AIK Solna – Elbouzedi, Keita, Fischer, and Guidetti are doubts.
IFK Norrkoping – Ssewankambo and de Brito are absent. Ortmark is a doubt.
IFK Varnamo – Andersson has left.
Mjallby Solvesborg – Rosengren is a doubt. Nwankwo, Kricak, Petersson, and Adolfsson are absent.
Varberg – Sainte, Mensah, Birkfeldt, and Liljenback are absent.
Elfsborg Boras – Baidoo is a doubt.

Swiss Super League:

Lugano – Arigoni, Mai, Mahou, Nkanda, Morosoli are absent. Bottani and Celar are doubts.
St. Gallen – Schubert, Nuhu, von Moos, Stillhart, and Dajaku are absent. Kempter is a doubt.
FC Winterthur – Gantenbein, Ballet, Pukaj, and Ramizi are absent. Burkart, Fayulu, and Ltaief return. Corbaz is a doubt.
Luzern – M. Meyer, Dorn, Simani, Emini, Campo, Kadak, and Toggenburger are absent.
Young Boys Bern – Benito, Camara, and von Ballmoos are absent. Ruegg returns.
Grasshopper Zurich – Momoh and Schmid are absent. 

Swiss Challenge League:

Vaduz – Isik, Traber, and Xhemajli are absent. Hasler and Goelzer are doubts.
FC Schaffhausen – Kalem and Sahitaj are absent. Sliskovic and Bunjaku are doubts.

Turkish Super Lig:

Fatih Karagumruk – Biraschi, Tintis, Tatli, and Mizrakci are absent.
Fenerbahce – Yandas, King, Oosterwolde, Batshuayi, Peres, and Henrique are absent.
Kayserispor – Mane is a doubt. Carole, Karimi, Korkmaz, and Campanharo are absent.
Umraniyespor – Glumac, Yilmaz, Kirintili, and Allyson are absent.

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

Australian A-League:

Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix (5) 2-2

Bulgarian A PFG:

Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Arda (6) 1-0
CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv (5) 1-1

Danish Superligaen:

Randers vs FC Copenhagen (4) 1-1
FC Nordsjaelland vs Brondby (5) 2-2
Aalborg BK vs OB (6) 1-0
FC Midtjylland vs Lyngby (6) 2-0

Israeli Ligat Ha’al:

Hapoel Be’er Sheva vs Maccabi Tel-Aviv (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game

Italian Serie B:

Benevento vs SPAL (6) 1-0
Brescia vs Ternana (5) 0-0
Cittadella vs Parma (5) 1-2
Como vs Genoa (5) 0-1
Frosinone vs Ascoli (6) 2-1
Perugia vs Modena (5) 0-0
Reggina vs Venezia (6) 1-0
Sudtirol vs Bari (5) 2-1
Pisa vs Cagliari (4) 2-2
Palermo vs Cosenza (6) 2-0

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Rosenborg BK vs Viking Stavanger (6) 2-1
Aalesund FK vs Valerenga Oslo (5) 1-2
Hamarkameratene vs Sandefjord (5) 1-0
Lillestrom SK vs Stromsgodset (6) 2-1
Sarpsborg 08 vs Bodo/Glimt (5) 2-2
Stabaek vs Odd (4) 2-2
Tromso vs Molde FK (6) 0-1
Brann Bergen vs Haugesund (5) 1-0

Portuguese Liga 1:

Gil Vicente vs Chaves (6) 1-0

Spanish Primera Liga:

Barcelona vs Girona (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game

Swedish Allsvenskan:

AIK Solna vs IFK Norrkoping (4) 1-1
IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby Solvesborg (5) 2-1
Varberg vs Elfsborg Boras (5) 0-1

Swiss Super League:

Lugano vs St. Gallen (5) 0-1
FC Winterthur vs Luzern (5) 1-0
Young Boys Bern vs Grasshopper Zurich (7) over 2.5 goals

Swiss Challenge League:

Vaduz vs FC Schaffhausen (5) 2-1

Turkish Super Lig:

Fatih Karagumruk vs Fenerbahce (6) 1-2
Kayserispor vs Umraniyespor (6) 1-0

Want to read more?

The Footy Tipster logo

Sign up to our email newsletter to receive free tips

We will send our latest tips straight to your email inbox. We typically send 5 free tips per week.

Get free tips