Hannover 96 vs Heidenheim
KO: (UK time)
I toyed with backing Heidenheim here because Hannover 96 are a truly depressing team when it comes to attacking. They’ve got the personnel to be phenomenal but they never, ever are. However, Heidenheim themselves don’t do enough for me either. I trust them more tactically, but I have less trust for them on the road so honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if either team (or neither) won this game; there are too many variables.
Backing under 2.5 goals makes sense to me though. Despite their strong squad, Hannover 96’s depressive approach to football leads to few chances at either end. Pay no mind to the mauling they encountered in Hamburg recently; they held their own far better than the scoreline suggests but went into a meltdown in the second-half for on apparent reason. Before that, it genuinely looked like Hamburger SV would not find a way through.
I think it’s even more sensible to back Hannover 96 games to go under 2.5 goals at the moment too. I mean, they’re a 1-0 team as it is (not that they’re good at getting the one), but they’ve also ran into the stage of the season where promotion is very much off the agenda, which means focusing on not getting relegated. They should be able to stay out of that mire but they’re not good enough at winning matches so my perspective is that they’ll simply focus on not losing, which is what they’re good at. Therefore, I envision them not taking any risks, and with Hrgota suspended, that should make for limited chances at either end of the pitch.
I still think that Heidenheim have a better chance of winning this game but again, I just don’t trust them to do it. They do need to try and win it but not recklessly because even if they don’t make the top two, then promotion via a third place finish is still possible (albeit via a play-off) so the last thing that they need here is to hand even more incentive to high-flying St. Pauli, who just beat them. They’ve got some grim matches still to come, Heidenheim, so it makes more sense for them to try and win without giving anything away.
My perspective is that, if the percentages game decides this contest, then Kleindienst and co. should be able to nick it for Heidenheim. This team doesn’t do well on the road though. They’re not awful; don’t get me wrong. They’re just not geared up to counter; they prefer to have the ball and make things happen, which obviously happens a lot less in away games. They can hold their own well enough but winning is tough for them, and against a Hannover 96 side that never seems to want to leave their own half – well…
The Bundesliga 2 is always capable of throwing up surprise results but I’m struggling to calculate what’d have to happen for this game to become an over 2.5 goals affair. That’s not to say it cannot happen, but more that it would take some unlikely circumstances, in my opinion. I believe that, should either team score here, they’ll just sit on it – and that they won’t struggle to do so. Therefore, under 2.5 goals at 9/10 is my poison.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.