TFT Issue 3965!

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Bankers

General Information

We aim to give you the best possible information before each game. However, the moment the game starts, anything can happen, ranging from red cards to snow storms to pitch invasions. We can only prepare you for so much; it's up to you to learn how to develop yourself as to know when to jump ship if things aren't going as they should.

Pay attention to the odds provided for each tip. Be aware that the longer the odds are, the less chance there is of it coming in. Don't lean toward backing the bankers containing teams you've heard of or selections at longer odds because you trust the team more or if you see the pound signs flashing before your eyes. Sometimes bankers won't win, try to use the previews to steer you toward the right selection to make rather than taking the quick/lazy way.

Please understand that every single tip has the capacity to win, push, or lose. We aim to find good value bets (probability vs odds) as our focal area.

Banker

Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus Parnu

KO: (UK time)

The quality gap should be too big here, even with Flora Tallinn hardly having set Estonian football alight so far this season. Vaprus Parnu wouldn’t be able to handle their “B” team, let alone their first team.

Verdict: Flora Tallinn to win at 13/100.

Banker

Antwerp vs Kortrijk

KO: (UK time)

Seeing as how Antwerp are getting back to their best, and they’re hosting a Kortrijk side that is still struggling, anything but a home win here would be a surprise to me, even with Antwerp’s penchant for making life harder for themselves in easier matches.

Verdict: Antwerp to win at 31/100.

Banker

AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Emmen 

KO: (UK time)

Ajax still aren’t close to their best but I trust them to win at home, especially when they must, and they’re hosting FC Emmen. I might feel differently if it were away from home because FC Emmen have impressed me on their own turf this season. In the capital though, there should only really be one winner. 

Verdict: AFC Ajax Amsterdam to win at 1/10.

Banker

Olympique de Marseille vs Troyes 

KO: (UK time)

Although fighting hard, Troyes are struggling from a bad combination of a lack of quality and a lack of luck. That’s not what you want before heading to the intimidating Velodrome. Marseille have their faults, but they know how to pick up points in games like these – they just rely on their individuals to make it so. Ergo, anything other than a home win – whether warranted or not – would be a bit bizarre. 

Verdict: Olympique de Marseille to win at 1/5.

Featured game

FC Basel vs Young Boys Bern

KO: (UK time)

If my luck lately is anything to go by, it might be worth putting a quid on FC Basel to win 10-0. Cynicism and bad luck aside though, Young Boys Bern should really win this derby.

No, I don’t think Young Boys Bern are especially good. In fact, it’s a pretty average team with some fantastic individuals. They’re lucky to be playing at a time when most teams in Switzerland are crap. They’re also lucky to have three of their best forwards in the division on their books. I’ve lost count of how many matches they’ve won this season by simply being more clinical than their opponents have been – but hey, it’s working, so fair play to them.

They’ve met FC Basel a few times recently, and won every time. They beat them at St. Jakob-Park in the Schweizer Pokal most recently – FC Basel were ok in that game but simply weren’t on the level of the capital club. Before that, the two teams met in the capital, and that was easily Young Boys Bern’s best showing of the campaign to date. It ended 3-0, but FC Basel could not have complained if it was 8-0, such was the dominance of the soon-to-be-champions.

Whether Young Boys Bern play well or not, the pattern remains constant; they tend to outscore FC Basel. Having superior match-winners and more big game players helps, of course, but it’s not everything that’s involved. Of course it helps to have Itten (who has a remarkably good goal-scoring record against the club that raised him), Nsame, Fassnacht, Rieder, and plenty of others besides, but FC Basel contribute an awful lot to their own downfall in general, and I expect to see more of the same here.

To be frank, this pick is more about FC Basel’s situation than it is about Young Boys Bern’s perceived superiority. I mean, this is their third match in a week, they’ve got a trip to Nice to prepare for, and they’re without three of their most reliable defenders in Comas, Frei (don’t ask – he’ll always be a midfielder in my eyes, but not to them…), and Calafiori. It means relying on Adams, which Vogel hates to do, and maybe even dropping right-back Lang in at centre-back. Bluntly put, defence is a huge problem for FC Basel, not just for this game.

Then there’s the fact that Vogel hasn’t been in charge for very long. The honeymoon period is over; FC Basel are back to being predictable in all that they do, as they amply demonstrated in their 1-1 “ Der Klassiker” draw last weekend, being restricted to just two shots in the entire match despite being afforded most of the ball. They’ve got some marvellous individuals, FC Basel, but they seldom show it as a group, hence their situation.

I would also argue that Vogel doesn’t know his best eleven yet. What that leads to is a lot of chopping and changing. I mean, Ndoye has been a key player for them for a few years now but this season his inconsistency has been apparent, and now he’s playing for a manager that won’t stomach it. Young Spanish winger Novoa has had the edge over him instead. There are numerous other examples like that – Vogel just doesn’t have a starting eleven he can trust right now, and that’s perfectly reasonable, given how long he’s been in charge for.

I’m sure you can see why this game has come at a problematic time for FC Basel though. It may be a derby, but the reality is that they may end up resting players for the Nice match because the Super League holds nothing of value for them in this campaign, really. It’s not inconceivable that they’ll finish second, but can they really trust in it happening? I’d be astounded if the answer to that question was “yes”. I’m confident that FC Basel will still give Young Boys Bern a game here; it’s a derby after all. However, they just don’t impress as a team in a number of different ways (passing speed, team spirit, defensive cohesion, and so on) whereas Young Boys Bern tend to score enough goals to win matches whether they play well or not.

With that in mind, backing the visitors to win this derby at 91/100 is something I cannot possibly overlook.

Verdict: Young Boys Bern to win at 91/100.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

Australian A-League:

Wellington Phoenix – Old and Laws are absent. Wootton is a slight doubt.
Brisbane Roar – Kruse is absent.
Sydney FC – Caballo is absent. Donachie and Parsons are slight doubts.
Perth Glory – Khelifi, Sardinero, Jones, McEneff, and David Williams are absent. Muir and Taggart are slight doubts.
Adelaide United – Cavallo, van der Saag, Bernardo, and Juande are absent. Isaias is a slight doubt.
Western United – O’Toole, Kilkenny, Bozinovski, and Najjarine are absent. Troisi and Prijovic are slight doubts. 

Austrian Bundesliga:

Salzburg – Guindo, Fernando, Tijani, Sucic, and Omoregie are absent.
LASK – Anselm, Boller, Goiginger, Letard, and Wiesinger are absent.
Austria Klagenfurt Straudi and Cvetko are absent.
Sturm Graz – Wels, Jantscher, and Wuthrich are absent.
Rapid Vienna – Dibon and Hofmann are absent.
Austria Vienna – El Sheiwi, Huskovic, Raguz, and Wustinger are absent. Galvao is a doubt.

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Racing Genk – Galarza, Arokodare, Cuesta, Heynen, Munoz, and Sor are absent.
RSC Anderlecht – Trebel and Verschaeren are absent.
KV Mechelen – Falchou, Bijker, Schoofs, Soelle Soelle, van Hecke, and Walsh are absent. Van Hoorenbeeck is a doubt.
AA Gent – Lemajic, Hjulsager, and Marreh are absent.
Antwerp – Engels, Gerkens, Haroun, Miyoshi, Valencia, and Verhulst are absent.
Kortrijk – Osabutey and Tanaka are absent.
Union Saint-Gilloise – No absentees.
RFC Seraing – Bernier, Galje, and Tremoulet are absent.

Brazilian Serie A:

Corinthians – No absentees.
Cruzeiro – No absentees.
Flamengo – No absentees.
Coritiba – No absentees.
Gremio – Pedro Geromel is absent.
Santos – Alex is absent.

Czechia Liga 1:

Hradec Kralove – Cihak, Klima, and Sevcik are absent.
Ceske Budejovice – No absentees.
Zbrojovka Brno – Endl and Texl are absent. Soucek is a doubt.
Pardubice – Huf, Mares, and Solil are absent.
Bohemians 1905 Petrak, Beran, and Shejbal are absent. Cermak and Puskac are doubts.
Mlada Boleslav – Vanicek is absent.
Banik Ostrava – Cadu is absent. Frydrych, Takacs, and Tetour are doubts.
Viktoria Plzen – Pernica, Kilment, and Reznik are absent.

Danish Superligaen:

FC Copenhagen – Babacar, Amoo, Cornelius, Boilesen, and Zeca are doubts.
Viborg – Agnarsson and Ndione are absent. Jatta and Lauritsen are doubts.
Brondby – Greve is absent.
AGF – Duin, Hvidt, Kristensen, and Lund are absent.
Lyngby – Finnbogason and Riis are absent.
AC Horsens – Musonda is absent.
OB – No absentees.
Silkeborg – Klynge, Pedersen, Thordarson, Felix, Engel, and Dahl are absent.

English Premier League:

West Ham United – Scamacca is absent.
Arsenal – Elneny, Saliba, and Tomiyasu are absent.
Nottingham Forest – Henderson, Boly, Biancone, Kouyate, Richards, Niakhate, and Chris Wood are absent. Scarpa, Lodi, Aurier, and Yates are doubts.
Manchester United – Martinez, Rashford, Heaton, Greenwood, Garnacho, Varane, and van de Beek are absent. McTominay, Shaw are doubts.

Finnish Veikkausliiga:

IFK Mariehamn – No news.
FC Lahti – Penninkangas and Jarvenpaa are absent. Andrade may debutise.

French Ligue 1:

Lille OSC – Djalo and Ounas are absent. Ismaily and Zhegrova are doubts.
Montpellier HSC – Esteve, Bertaud, Kouyate, Makouana, and Maouassa are absent.
AJ Auxerre Owusu, Mensah, Dugimont, Ruiz-Atil, and Sakhi are absent.
FC Nantes Atlantique – Descamps, Chirivella, Hadjam, Victor, and Pallois are absent.
Clermont Foot 38 – Andric is absent.
Angers SCO – Blazic, Diony, Doumbia, Eneme-Ella, Kalla, Salama, and Zinga are absent.
Racing Club Strasbourg – Kawashima, Diallo, and Lienard are absent. Nyamsi and Le Marchand are doubts.
AC Ajaccio – Belaili, Cimignani, Vidal, and Youssouf are absent.
Stade Brestois – Remy and Herelle are absent.
OGC Nice – Beka Beka, Atal, Lotomba, Diop, Pepe, and Viti are absent.
AS Monaco – Embolo, Aguilar, Martins, and Sarr are absent.
Lorient – Kalulu, Laporte, and Mvogo are absent.
Olympique de Marseille – Ruiz, Ounahi, and Harit are absent.
Troyes – Ripart and Tardieu are absent.

German Bundesliga:

Werder Bremen – Agu and Fullrkug are absent.
SC Freiburg Gulde and Kyereh are absent.
Union Berlin – Maciejewski, Mohwald, Oztunali, Schafer, and Pantovic are absent. Roussillon is a doubt.
VfL Bochum – Gamboa, M. Tolba, and Losilla are absent. Forster returns.
VfL Wolfsburg Franjic, Klinger, L. Nmecha, and Schulze are absent. Baka and Wimmer return.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Eze, Lunev, and Schick are absent.

German Bundesliga 2:

St. Pauli – Ahlers, Amenyido, Avevor, Nemeth, Maurides, Smarsch, Smith, and Matanovic are absent.
Eintracht Braunschweig – Decarli, Ihorst, Gechter, and Wiebe are absent.
Fortuna Dusseldorf Hendrix and Tanaka are absent.
Darmstadt 98 – Holland and Ronstadt are absent.
Karlsruher SC – Breithaupt, Choi, Eisele, M. Franke, and O’Shaughnessy are absent.
Arminia Bielefeld – Ramos is absent. 

Israeli Ligat Ha’al:

Maccabi Netanya – Zlatanovic, Sade, Avraham, and Rotman are absent. Twumasi is a doubt.
Hapoel Be’er Sheva – Solomon, Elias, Abu-Abeid, and Martins are absent. Vitor is a doubt.
Bnei Sakhnin – Ashkenazi is absent.
Beitar Jerusalem – Israeli, Azaria, and Gerchkin are absent. 

Italian Serie A:

Lecce – Pongracic is absent.
Sampdoria – Conti, Pussetto, and Audero are absent.
Torino – Vieira, Zima, and Schuurs are absent.
Salernitana – Coulibaly, Crnigoj, Fazio, and Maggiore are absent.
Sassuolo – Berardi is absent.
Juventus – Szczesny is a doubt. Kean, de Sciglio, Sandro, and Jorge are absent.
AS Roma – Karsdorp, Dybala, Abraham, and Solbakken are absent.
Udinese – Deulofeu and Ebosse are absent.

Italian Serie B:

Ternana – Onesti is absent.
Pisa – Toure and de Vitis are absent.

Dutch Eredivisie:

NEC – DeWolf, Verdonck, and Roefs are absent.
Vitesse Arnhem – Propper and Wittek are absent.
FC Utrecht – Bozdogan, Warmerdam, and Raatsie are absent.
FC Twente Enschede – Hilgers, Ugalde, and Sadilek are absent.
FC Volendam – No absentees.
PSV Eindhoven Mauro Junior and Fofana are absent.
Fortuna Sittard – No absentees.
AZ – Dekker, de Wit, Westerveld, and Martins Indi are absent.
Cambuur Leeuwarden – van der Meer is absent.
Feyenoord Rotterdam – Timber is absent.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam – Kudus and Kaplan are absent.
FC Emmen – Scholt, Guclu, Mendes, Hardeveld, Kieftenbeld, and Lieder are absent.

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Bodo/Glimt – Fet and Vetti are absent.
Stabaek – No absentees.
Haugesund – No absentees.
Hamarkameratene – Opsahl is absent. Dunn-Johnson is a doubt.
Molde FK – Ellingsen, Andersen, and Sinyan are absent.
Rosenborg BK – Augustinsson, Saeter, Skarsem, and Tagseth are absent.
Odd – Ruud is absent. Hien is a doubt.
Brann Bergen – No absentees.
Sandefjord Nyenetue and Palerud are absent.
Tromso – Traore is absent.
Stromsgodset – No absentees.
Aalesund FK – Ammitzboll is absent.
Valerenga Oslo – Borchgrevink is absent.
Sarpsborg 08 – Andersen is absent.

Portuguese Liga 1:

Rio Ave – Joca is absent.
Casa Pia – Felippe and Leo Natel are absent.
Sporting Braga – No absentees.
Gil Vicente – Alipour and Kritsyuk are absent.
Sporting Clube de Portugal – Paulinho and Braganca are absent. Cabral and St. Juste are doubts.
Arouca – Soro, Dabbagh, and Vitinho are absent.

Spanish Primera Liga:

Girona – Kebe, Herrera, Reinier, and Roca are absent. Callens is a doubt.
Elche – Alonso, Carmona, and Fidel are absent.
Getafe – Arambarri and Mata are absent.
Barcelona – Pedri, de JOng, Christensen, and Dembele are absent.
Atletico Madrid – Mandava and Depay are absent. Lemar and Savic are doubts.
Almeria – Akieme, Chumi, Pozo, and Toure are absent.
Valencia – Domenech, Correia, and Kluivert are absent. Nico is a doubt.
Sevilla – Gueye, Acuna, and Telles are absent. Corona is a doubt.

Swedish Allsvenskan.

AIK Solna – Guidetti is absent. Elbouzedi and Keita are doubts.
Hammarby – Collander and Trawally are absent.
IFK Norrkoping – Ssewankambo, de Brito, and Skulason are absent. Hellichius, Shabani, Lind, Vito, and Ortmark are doubts.
IFK Varnamo – No absentees.
Halmstad Baffoe is absent. Karlsson and Olsson are doubts.
Djurgarden – Odhiambo, Zetterstrom, and Kack are absent. Lofgren is a doubt.
Mjallby Solvesborg – Kricak, Nwankwo, Petersson, and Adolfsson are absent. Rosengren and Tornqvist are doubts.
Degerfors – Djurdjic is absent. Ohlsson and Gravius are doubts.

Swiss Super League:

St. Gallen – Touchline ban for boss Zeidler, Kempter, Guidotti, Nuhu, and Schubert are absent. Maglica and Latte Lath are doubts.
FC Winterthur – Pukaj, Gantenbein, and Ramizi are absent.
FC Basel Calafiori, Comas, and Frei are absent.
Young Boys Bern – Zesiger, Benito, von Ballmoos, and Camara are absent.
Grasshopper Zurich – Seko and Schettine are absent.
FC Sion – Touchline ban for boss Bettoni. Zuffi, Moubandje, and Iapichino are absent. 

Swiss Challenge League:

AC Bellinzona Romero, Izmirlioglu, Klein, Padula, and Curic are absent. Durrer is a doubt.
Vaduz – Gasser is absent. Goelzer and Iodice are doubts.
Lausanne Sport – No absentees.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – Onkony, Qarri, Abi, and Maroufi are absent. Okou is a doubt.

Turkish Super Lig:

Giresunspor – No absentees.
Sivasspor – James, Ciftci, Djerlek, Angieski, Okumus, and Osmanpasa are absent.
Trabzonspor – Trezeguet is a doubt. Omur, Visca, Asan, Tokoz, Parmak, and Hugo are absent.
Besiktas JK – Hadziahmetovic, Tosun, Sanuc, Alli, N’Koudou, and Hutchinson are absent.

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

Australian A-League:

Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar (5) 2-1
Sydney FC vs Perth Glory (5) 1-1
Adelaide United vs Western United (6) 2-0

Austrian Bundesliga:

Salzburg vs LASK (6) over 2.5 goals
Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz (6) 0-1
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Racing Genk vs RSC Anderlecht (5) 2-1
KV Mechelen vs AA Gent (4) 2-2
Antwerp vs Kortrijk (7) 2-0
Union Saint-Gilloise vs RFC Seraing (6) 2-0

Brazilian Serie A:

Corinthians vs Cruzeiro (6) 1-0
Flamengo vs Coritiba (7) 2-1
Gremio vs Santos (5) 1-0

Croatian Prva Liga:

Varazdin vs Istra 1961 (6) 1-0
Rijeka vs Hajduk Split (5) 1-1

Czechia Liga 1:

Hradec Kralove vs Ceske Budejovice (5) 1-0
Zbrojovka Brno vs Pardubice (6) 1-0
Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav (5) 2-2
Banik Ostrava vs Viktoria Plzen (5) 0-1

Danish Superligaen:

FC Copenhagen vs Viborg (6) 2-1
Brondby vs AGF (6) 2-0
Lyngby vs AC Horsens (6) 1-0
OB vs Silkeborg (5) 1-1

English Premier League:

West Ham United vs Arsenal (6) 0-1, at least one red card in this game
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United (5) 1-2

Estonian Meistriliiga:

Tammeka vs Nomme Kalju (5) 0-0
Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus Parnu (8) 2-0
Flora Paide vs Tallinna Kalev (6) 2-1

Faroese Betrideildin:

AB vs B36 Torshavn (4) 1-1
HB Torshavn vs IF (6) 2-0
KI vs Vikingur Gota (7) 2-1
TB vs 07 Vestur Sorvagur (6) 0-0
B68 Toftir vs EB/Streymur (5) 2-2

Finnish Veikkausliiga:

IFK Mariehamn vs FC Lahti (5) 1-0

Finnish Ykkonen:

KaPa vs MP (6) 2-1

French Ligue 1:

Lille OSC vs Montpellier HSC (6) 2-0
AJ Auxerre vs FC Nantes Atlantique (6) 0-0
Clermont Foot 38 vs Angers SCO (4) 1-1
Racing Club Strasbourg vs AC Ajaccio (6) 1-0
Stade Brestois vs OGC Nice (5) 1-0
AS Monaco vs Lorient (5) 2-2
Olympique de Marseille vs Troyes (7) 2-0

German Bundesliga:

Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg (5) 2-2
Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum (6) 1-0
VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (5) 2-2

German Bundesliga 2:

St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig (6) 2-0
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Darmstadt 98 (6) 1-1
Karlsruher SC vs Arminia Bielefeld (6) 2-1

Hungarian Liga 1:

Varda SE vs Fehervar (5) 1-1
Ujpest vs Paksi SE (5) 0-1

Israeli Ligat Ha’al:

Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Be’er Sheva (5) over 2.5 goals
Bnei Sakhnin vs Beitar Jerusalem (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game

Italian Serie A:

Lecce vs Sampdoria (6) 2-1
Torino vs Salernitana (6) 1-0
Sassuolo vs Juventus (5) 2-1
AS Roma vs Udinese (6) 1-0

Italian Serie B:

Ternana vs Pisa (5) 1-1

Lithuanian A Lyga:

Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen (7) 2-1

Dutch Eredivisie:

NEC vs Vitesse Arnhem (5) 1-0
FC Utrecht vs FC Twente Enschede (5) 0-1
FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven (6) over 2.5 goals
Fortuna Sittard vs AZ (6) 1-2
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (6) 1-2
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Emmen (7) 2-1

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Bodo/Glimt vs Stabaek (7) over 2.5 goals
Haugesund vs Hamarkameratene (6) 1-0
Molde FK vs Rosenborg BK (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Odd vs Brann Bergen (6) 1-0
Sandefjord vs Tromso (5) 1-1
Stromsgodset vs Aalesund FK (6) over 2.5 goals
Valerenga Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 (4) 1-1

Portuguese Liga 1:

Rio Ave vs Casa Pia (5) 0-0
Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente (6) 2-1
Sporting Clube de Portugal vs Arouca (7) 2-1

Spanish Primera Liga:

Girona vs Elche (6) 2-1
Getafe vs Barcelona (6) 1-2
Atletico Madrid vs Almeria (5) 1-0
Valencia vs Sevilla (5) 1-2

Swedish Allsvenskan.

AIK Solna vs Hammarby (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo (6) 2-1
Halmstad vs Djurgarden (6) 0-1
Mjallby Solvesborg vs Degerfors (6) 2-1

Swiss Super League:

St. Gallen vs FC Winterthur (6) over 2.5 goals
FC Basel vs Young Boys Bern (6) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Grasshopper Zurich vs FC Sion (6) 2-1

Swiss Challenge League:

AC Bellinzona vs Vaduz (6) 1-2
Lausanne Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game

Turkish Super Lig:

Giresunspor vs Sivasspor (5) 1-1
Trabzonspor vs Besiktas JK (4) 1-2

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