TFT Issue 3967!

The big Hamburg derby, huh? St. Pauli tend to have an edge in it, partially because they love being underdogs/unfancied, and partially because Hamburger SV are major bottlers nowadays, and have been for many years. I’m not convinced that tonight’s game will be any different, contrary to what the bookies have implied with their odds selection.

Don’t get me wrong; Hamburger SV should be favourites. They’ve got a lot of money behind them, and thus a lot of quality on their books. They’ve got more match-winners than any other Bundesliga 2 team, which is why they’re always in the promotion race. Here’s the thing, though – they’ve not been promoted for what – three, four seasons in a row now? Each time, they lose their cool. They’ve not imploded quite as much this season as in previous ones, but they’re struggling to get over the finish line – again. This is a team that is dogged by their past failures, and that’s not the kind of outfit that should be trusted in big derbies.

Again, Hamburger SV have lots of quality, though. I’ve seen them win matches without playing well this season. Take the home game against Hannover 96, for example. They got nowhere near their opponents for a long time in that contest, and were lucky to go ahead as they did. However, their opponents fell to pieces in the second-half, and Hamburger SV simply took the chances that came their way. That’s a dangerous team to oppose, though – I know. I still think it’s worthwhile, though – I can count the number of times on one hand that Hamburger SV have actually deserved to win a game in 2023.

That win was their only one from their past five too, each of which was littered with errors. Somehow they conceded four times against a Karlsruher SC team that doesn’t have a good attack anymore. They failed to score against Holstein Kiel at home in the northern derby, who have arguably the most suspect defence in the division at times. They needed a very lucky own goal to salvage a 2-2 draw in Dusseldorf, and last time out they were beaten by a fatigued Kaiserslautern team. No matter what the potential, experience, and quality of Hamburger SV is, I just don’t trust them to do well in big games at this stage of the season – and this is a big game.

St. Pauli are going to lose this game. Forget the defeat against Eintracht Braunschweig last time out; they tend to struggle as heavy favourites. From a superstitious point of view, I’m glad they lost that game because they’d won an odd amount of games in a row before that, considering they’re a Bundesliga 2 team. No, turning up as unfancied nobodies in a big derby against an illustrious host – that is what St. Pauli are about. I can see them making one hell of a splash in this game because, unlike their hosts, they’ve got a squad that is mentally tough enough for such affairs.

Are St. Pauli punching above their weight by being in the promotion race? Maybe just a little, yes. They’ve got some really good players on their books like Daschner, Irvine, Medic, and even Eggestein on his day. However, they’re not a top team in terms of what they spend, and who they bring in. They’re only a top team when it comes to work ethic and togetherness, and in a promotion race, the latter will serve you well more often than not.

I’m not going to try and sell you the dream that St. Pauli are perfect because they’re not. They have their flaws. It’s just that they work so hard for one another, and they care so much that failing to give their best in a game like this would be wild for them i.e. it’s not likely. Since these two teams were reunited in Bundesliga 2, do you know how many times St. Pauli have lost against them? Twice – in nine meetings! Given the purported gulf between them, it’s really not acceptable for Hamburger SV, and goes some distance to supporting the above points I’ve made.

Therefore, despite St. Pauli undeniably being the inferior team, my call is for them to be the latest team to ‘surprise’ Hamburger SV, and the odds make it worth a flutter.