TFT Issue 3970!

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Featured game

Leeds United vs Leicester City

KO: (UK time)

Well, this sure does feel like a big game, doesn’t it? Leeds’ remaining fixtures look horrendous, and Leicester’s only look partially better. Both need points to stave off the threat of relegation because financially speaking, it would be ruinous for either to go down.

I can’t pick a winner between them right now either. Leicester are impressing me more on the pitch but both are capable of winning this game on their day. I’d argue that Leeds look more nervous but both are so calamitous at the back that it’s hard to be optimistic for either of them. I don’t remember the last time that Meslier saved a shot, for example, and their defence isn’t good at the best of times. Leicester have barely played their best centre-backs this season; Faes is just an animal, and Soyuncu hasn’t played enough, not to mention that both full-backs are far better offensively than defensively.

I believe that Leicester have a better balance in the sense that their midfield screens their defence quite well; Leeds still seem to miss Phillips there. They’ve replaced him with pure energy so that their midfield is incredibly combative and fit, but they’re not as intelligent when it comes to positioning. I have to believe that Maddison and Barnes will have fun playing against a team like that, especially with Meslier struggling for confidence.

I’m not the biggest fan of Leicester’s striker options but their midfield is loaded with creativity and speed. They should be able to make things happen here, especially should they go ahead because their counter-attacking speed should be superb, and their hosts cannot afford to lose this game so they’d have to push out, not that the Yorkshire club are afraid to do so in general anyway; they’re very much an attacking team.

Leicester have a slight edge, for my money, but Leeds are at home, and the visitors are no better defensively than their hosts are. Leeds may be short of confidence but they’re not short of attacking intent, nor good options in the final third. Rodrigo’s movement and pace makes him a nightmare, and the same applies to Sinisterra and Gnonto, although none of them convince me in terms of finesse. Summerville has enjoyed a good campaign too. Bamford is the brawn if they need a typical striker.

Leeds may lack balance, but they don’t lack in endeavour nor energy. They’re a complicated side to deal with in that respect. They let themselves down tactically, but certainly not athletically. They’re going to give this game their all because they must; partially because they need some momentum/confidence, and partially because this is their easiest remaining fixture.

Neither team can afford to lose this one, and honestly, a draw wouldn’t help either. I think they both have to go for the win, and given that neither looks capable of holding a lead, backing over 3 Asian goals makes sense to me.

Verdict: Over 3 Asian goals at 6/5.

Additional games

Grasshopper Zurich vs Young Boys Bern

KO: (UK time)

If Young Boys Bern win this fixture, then they’ve won the title with weeks to spare. Following the massacre of Servette at the weekend, I don’t think anyone has any doubts that they’re going to win it anyway, not that there should have been – the points gap was huge before that game.

What I found interesting about the Servette mauling is that although Servette were a car crash defensively, they actually did ok offensively. They ended up with a similar xG to their hosts, actually. It just goes to show what I’ve said about Young Boys Bern all along – they may be winning some matches handsomely, but their all-round displays need a lot of work. They generally win matches in the Super League by virtue of having the best strikers, not by playing the best football, and certainly not by dominating.

For this contest, the visitors find themselves without Rieder, who is their wonderkid creator. Fortunately, it’s not an issue because Imeri is ready to step in, who excelled against his former club at the weekend, and should play alongside Ugrinic and Fassnacht, which is as lethal a midfield combination as you’ll find in the Super League. They’ll make a plethora of things happen at will, and with Nsame now back from suspension, Young Boys Bern have a very fresh striker that is hungry for goals.

Grasshopper Zurich aren’t a hard team to score against. Therefore, given the motivation of the capital club, I have to believe that the league leaders should be able to bag at least two goals here, if not more. I don’t trust them defensively, though. They give too many chances away in general, and I have to believe that they’ll rest veteran defender Lustenberger given the fixture congestion and his injury prone nature. Keep in mind that Ruegg is still recovering from injury so they’re not likely to be able to rotate their right-back unless outcast Maceiras gets a rare outing, although backup left-back Benito is back in the squad. In short, Grasshopper Zurich should get their chances here.

I was a tad dubious about Grasshopper Zurich’s attack last time out because Schettine and Momoh being out, not to mention Shabani’s suspension, meant that it was all on Dadashov to score goals, and Kawabe to create. As it transpired, the 4-3-3 they deployed worked rather well. Herc and Pusic looked quite fresh, and they started the game with a great intensity. If they can do that here, then they’ve got a chance of picking up the win that they need to keep their European hopes alive.

I wouldn’t place much stock in those hopes, though. The more games go by, the more players Contini loses. This time it’s defensive midfielder Ndenge that is injured, and there’s no real replacement for him. Their back line won’t get much protection here, and keep in mind that even when they deploy a 4-3-3, they still use wing-backs in full-back positions so they can be caught out.

My big concern with the home team (as far as them winning goes) is that they don’t control games for very long. They always get rattled in the end; it almost happened against ten men last time out too. If they do that against Young Boys Bern then they could easily end up conceding five. I think they’ll give Young Boys Bern a decent game, although I can’t see beyond an away win.

For me, this should be a goal-filled affair.

Verdict: Over 3 Asian goals at 19/20.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

Czechia Liga 1:

Teplice – Knapik, Kucera, and Vondrasek are absent.
Mlada Boleslav – Vanicek is a doubt.
Pardubice – Mares and Solil are absent.
Slovacko – Kohut is absent.
Banik Ostrava – Frydrych, Takacs, and Tetour are doubts.
Slavia Prague – Lingr and Kurasek are absent. Sevcik is a doubt.

English Premier League:

Wolverhampton Wanderers – Chiquinho and Kalajdzic are absent. Traore and Lemina are doubts.
Crystal Palace – Ferguson is absent. Zaha and Clyne are doubts.
Aston Villa – Steer is absent. Bailey, Cash, Coutinho, Kamara, and Martinez are doubts.
Fulham – Kurzawa and Mitrovic are absent.
Leeds United – Adams and Dallas are absent.
Leicester City – Justin, Pereira, and Vestergaard are absent. Barnes, Bertrand, and Evans are doubts.

Spanish Primera Liga:

Cadiz – Garrido, Escalante, Ocampo, Cala, and Zaldua are absent. Fali and Mere are doubts.
CA Osasuna – Brasanac and K. Garcia are absent.
Girona – Kebe, Herrera, R. Garcia, Villa, and Roca are absent. A. Garcia and D. Lopez are doubts.
Real Madrid – Alaba, Ceballos, and Mendy are absent.
Real Betis Balompie – Fakir is absent. Ruiz and Sabaly are doubts.
Real Sociedad Sadiq, Rico, and Merquelanz are absent.

Swiss Super League:

Grasshopper Zurich – Momoh, Schettine, and Ndenge are absent.
Young Boys Bern – Benito returns. Ruegg, von Ballmoos, Rieder, and Camara are absent.

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

Croatian Prva Liga:

Sibenik vs Slaven Koprivnica (5) 2-1

Czechia Liga 1:

Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav (5) 2-1
Pardubice vs Slovacko (6) 1-2
Banik Ostrava vs Slavia Prague (6) 0-1

English Premier League:

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Crystal Palace (5) 0-0
Aston Villa vs Fulham (6) over 2.5 goals
Leeds United vs Leicester City (4) over 2.5 goals

Spanish Primera Liga:

Cadiz vs CA Osasuna (6) 0-0
Girona vs Real Madrid (6) 1-2
Real Betis Balompie vs Real Sociedad (5) 2-2

Swiss Super League:

Grasshopper Zurich vs Young Boys Bern (6) over 2.5 goals

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