TFT Issue 3971!

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Bankers

General Information

We aim to give you the best possible information before each game. However, the moment the game starts, anything can happen, ranging from red cards to snow storms to pitch invasions. We can only prepare you for so much; it's up to you to learn how to develop yourself as to know when to jump ship if things aren't going as they should.

Pay attention to the odds provided for each tip. Be aware that the longer the odds are, the less chance there is of it coming in. Don't lean toward backing the bankers containing teams you've heard of or selections at longer odds because you trust the team more or if you see the pound signs flashing before your eyes. Sometimes bankers won't win, try to use the previews to steer you toward the right selection to make rather than taking the quick/lazy way.

Please understand that every single tip has the capacity to win, push, or lose. We aim to find good value bets (probability vs odds) as our focal area.

Banker

Dinamo Zagreb vs Varazdin

KO: (UK time)

It seems inevitable that Dinamo will claim yet another Prva Liga crown now. They’ve not been amazing this season but haven’t been challenged consistently enough with NK Osijek and Rijeka massively disappointing, although Hajduk had stepped up their game enormously until they lost their main attacker. Anyway, Dinamo just need to win a few more games to make it certain, and doing so at home against an inferior Varazdin that haven’t won in weeks seems straightforward enough to me.

Verdict: Dinamo Zagreb to win at 1/4.

Banker

B68 Toftir vs KI

KO: (UK time)

KI are simply the best team in the Faroe Islands right now. Home or away, they’re absolutely lethal, and they will win most Betrideildin games that they’re involved in this season. I don’t see why that’d change against B68 Toftir, to be frank.

Verdict: KI to win at 11/100.

Featured game

Nottingham Forest vs Brighton & Hove Albion

KO: (UK time)

Forest are deep in the relegation mire, and the worst of it is that they look the least capable of getting out of it. All of the teams around them know how to dig in, and how to sometimes hold a lead, if only via sheer determination. Forest just don’t have that knack. Every time they sit too deep, you know that they’ll concede. I’m sure folks will be distracted by their encouraging display at Anfield the other day but I’m not one of them. Forest have good players but mostly in attack, and they don’t know how to defend as a unit, which is a huge problem in an unforgiving division like the Premier League.

I’m sure that they’ll ask some questions of their opponents here. I mean, they’ve got some tremendous pace out wide, some good creators, and a beast of a striker in Awoniyi, although he’s tragically the exact poor finisher I thought he’d be at this level. The lack of cohesion for this team is staggering, though. It’s a serious problem. Does Cooper really know what his best eleven is? I wouldn’t with such a massive squad. Subsequently, I don’t really feel like he’s getting the best out of anybody.

Furthermore, they’re starting to run out of more important players, if I can put it that way. I mean, Kouyate is no world-beater but they need someone that can protect the back four like he does. Henderson has bailed them out on countless occasions this season but is still out too. Powerful defenders like Aurier and Boly are still out, as is target man Wood. It’s reducing Cooper’s options in a squad that needs a shake-up so it’s hard for me to be optimistic about their chances here, capable though they are.

On the flip side, Brighton are just awesome, aren’t they? I hate to play the Arsene Wenger card, folks, but I raved about de Zerbi for years before he came to the Premier League. He should have been the one to take over as Italy manager after Conte left but the Italian FA is full of dinosaurs so it’s always a case of ‘jobs for the boys’, you know? Anyway, he’s done this team the world of good. They’re bolder, more confident, more effective, and really dangerous. A team like this should highlight Forest’s defensive ineptitude really easily.

Admittedly, it’s difficult to know what condition Brighton will be in after their FA Cup semi-final defeat at the weekend. They gave a good account of themselves but just didn’t have enough in the end. They lost Welbeck to injury in the process, and now may have to rotate certain players – March looked to be carrying a knock too. Still, this is a mentally tough team that won’t let one game get them down. As long as they’re fit enough, they’ll do Forest a lot of damage with their slick passing game, and penetrating runs in the final third.

My only real concern is whether Brighton will be clinical enough if Welbeck fails, given that Ferguson is out too. Still, they should create enough chances for Mitoma and Mac Allister to do the damage, and Forest can’t afford to lose so they’ll have to push out and leave space in behind. To put it bluntly, Brighton should be able to play this game as they see fit, and they’re simply a much better side. That’s nothing against Forest; I think Brighton are better than most Premier League teams right now.

My tip may be a tad bold, given their weekend exploits, but I firmly believe that Brighton will at least win this game, which would activate the insurance side of my pick.

Verdict: Brighton & Hove Albion to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 91/100.

Additional games

St. Gallen vs Lugano

KO: (UK time)

It’s difficult not to fancy Lugano here. I don’t like opposing St. Gallen at home but they’ve been really ineffectual of late. I don’t want to say ‘bad’ because they’ve had good moments in some games but they’re nowhere near their usual level. Generally speaking, a Zeidler team is fast, confident, intense, and dangerous. They’ll concede, but they’ll usually score just as many as they concede, if not more. At the moment, they seem to be lacking in speedy passing and conviction. They were absolutely woeful in the 1-0 defeat against FC Zurich last weekend, at least until the last ten minutes of the game, and it’s not the first time it’s happened recently.

It’s almost as if Zeidler has too many options now, and he doesn’t know who to play. They’re all capable players, don’t get me wrong, and I don’t doubt that returning Captain Gortler will whip them into some kind of shape here. However, they’re not terrifying opponents with their attacking any more. Earlier in the season they’d lay siege to their opponents’ goal but that doesn’t happen anymore. Teams are content to let them have the ball because they lack the precision and speed in the final third to convert their possession into chances, which is just bizarre, really.

I do like Zeidler, and I really like the team he’s put together. Something is off there, though. Even at Kybunpark, they still seem to be lacking a key ingredient that allows them to intimidate and overwhelm opponents. I can’t sit here and state that they’ll fail to win this game because that would be a ridiculously bold claim of a team that can beat most Swiss opposition on their day. However, let me surmise it by saying that this is the least confident I’ve felt about St. Gallen winning a home match for quite some time.

Let’s not make it all about St. Gallen, though. I also don’t see them winning because of how annoying Lugano are to break down. I’m a tad disappointed that Croci-Torti hasn’t taken the team to the next level yet, but they’re still tactically intelligent; moreso than most in the Super League. They know how to bed themselves in and be hard to break down, but unlike FC Sion (who play in a similar fashion) they actually possess a really dangerous attack too, enough so to not require great numbers. Steffen, Bottani, Aliseda, and Celar are as dangerous a quartet as you could hope for at this level whilst Sabbatini and Doumbia control their matches and protect their defence superbly.

They’re not perfect, Lugano – I wish they’d play with more endeavour, really. I almost feel like Croci-Torti underestimates his team at times. Still, they’re not the kind of team to give anything away, particularly away from home. They’re so hard to score against, especially now they can name a defence that their taskmaster trusts. Even Mai’s continued absence isn’t a problem now Hajrizi is getting back to his best. Even wildcard full-back Espinoza is getting used to Swiss football at long last.

They’ve got a lot of what I trust, Lugano. They have players for every occasion with oodles of energy, strength, and effectiveness. With Celar likely back, their best goal-scorer will be on the pitch. Aliseda is in the form of his life, and is virtually un-droppable now. Steffen is getting back to his best. This is a team that is difficult to deal with at both ends, basically. They may not win in the far north tonight, but there’s no logical reason to believe that they’ll lose either.

For my money, laying the home win makes sense, especially with von Moos having emerged as a late doubt.

Verdict: Lugano to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 19/20.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

Austrian Bundesliga:

Sturm Graz – Jantscher and Wels are absent.
Austria Vienna – El Sheiwi, Huskovic, Raguz, and Wustinger are absent. Galvao is a doubt.
Rapid Vienna – Dibon, Hofmann, and Querfeld are absent.
Salzburg –  Fernando, Guindo, Kjaergaard, Okafor, Omoregie, Onguene, Sucic, Tijani, and van der Brempt are absent. Gourna-Douath and Ulmer are doubts.

Czechia Liga 1:

Zlin – Balaj, Fillo, Hlousek, and Chanturiashvili are absent.
Bohemians 1905 – Petrak and Shejbal are absent. Cermak is a doubt.
Baumit Jablonec – Krob, Kratochvil, Houska, and Malinsky are absent.
Sigma Olomouc – Vodhanel, Rusek, Prichystal, and Matousek are absent. Spacil is a doubt.
Hradec Kralove – Leibl, Cihak, and Sevcik are absent. Kubala and Gabriel are doubts
Slovan Liberec – Visinsky and Gebre Selassie are absent. Meszaros is a doubt.
Zbrojovka Brno – Divisek, Endl, Hlavica, Kozeluh, Matejov, Pachlopnik, Rogozan, Soucek, and Sural are absent.
Ceske Budejovice – No absentees.
Sparta Prague – Jankto, Celustka, Mejdr, and Pesek are absent. Cvancara is a doubt.
Viktoria Plzen – Pernica is absent. Havel and Kopic are doubts.

English Premier League:

Nottingham Forest – Henderson, Boly, Biancone, Aurier, Kouyate, McKenna, Richards, Wood, and Yates are absent. Colback, Shelvey, and Scarpa are doubts.
Brighton & Hove Albion – Lallana, Sarmiento, and Lamptey are absent. Ferguson and Welbeck are doubts.
West Ham United – Scamacca is absent.
Liverpool – Bajcetic, Firmino, Keita, and Ramsay are absent.
Chelsea – Broja and Koulibaly are absent.
Brentford – Ajer, Jansson, and Lewis-Potter are absent. Norgaard is a doubt.
Manchester City – Mendy and Ake are absent.
Arsenal – Tomiyasu, Saliba, and Elneny are absent. Xhaka is a doubt.

Spanish Primera Liga:

Atletico Madrid – Mandava and Savic are absent. Depay, Koke, and Llorente are doubts.
Real Mallorca – Gonzalez, Luna, Raillo, and Ruiz de Galarreta are absent. Augustinsson and Nastasic are doubts.

Getafe – Arambarri is absent.
Almeria – Ely and Toure are absent. Akieme, Fuoli, and Mendes are doubts.

Celta de Vigo – Mingueza and Marchesin are absent. C. Perez is a doubt.
Elche – Carmona, Bigas, and Alamo are absent. Palacios is a doubt.
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid – Falcao and Comesana are absent.
Barcelona – Roberto and Busquets are absent. Christensen and Dembele are doubts.

Swiss Super League:

Servette – Bauer, Magnin, Douline, and Crivelli are absent. Stevanovic, Rodelin, Clichy return. Diallo is a doubt.
FC Zurich – Tosin and Santini are absent. Rohner is a doubt.
St. Gallen – Nuhu, Guidotti, Geubbels, Schubert, and Dajaku are absent. Gortler returns. von Moos is a doubt.
Lugano – Mahmoud, Babic, Mahou, and Mai are absent. Bislimi and Aliseda return. Celar is a slight doubt.

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

Austrian Bundesliga:

Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna (6) over 2.5 goals
Rapid Vienna vs Salzburg (5) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game

Croatian Prva Liga:

NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 (6) 2-0
Dinamo Zagreb vs Varazdin (7) 2-1
Gorica vs Hajduk Split (5) over 2.5 goals

Czechia Liga 1:

Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 (4) 1-2
Baumit Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc (5) 0-0
Hradec Kralove vs Slovan Liberec (6) 0-0
Zbrojovka Brno vs Ceske Budejovice (6) 1-0
Sparta Prague vs Viktoria Plzen (5) 2-1

English Premier League:

Nottingham Forest vs Brighton & Hove Albion (6) 0-2
West Ham United vs Liverpool (5) 2-2
Chelsea vs Brentford (4) 1-1
Manchester City vs Arsenal (6) over 2.5 goals

Faroese Betrideildin:

EB/Streymur vs B36 Torshavn (5) 1-1
AB vs 07 Vestur Sorvagur (5) 2-1
TB vs IF (6) 1-0
B68 Toftir vs KI (7) over 2.5 goals
HB Torshavn vs Vikingur Gota (5) 2-2

Coppa Italia:

Internazionale vs Juventus (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game

Spanish Primera Liga:

Atletico Madrid vs Real Mallorca (6) 1-0
Getafe vs Almeria (6) 2-1
Celta de Vigo vs Elche (6) 2-0
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Barcelona (5) 2-2

Swiss Super League:

Servette vs FC Zurich (5) 1-1
St. Gallen vs Lugano (5) 1-1

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