TFT Issue 3972!

Well, it didn’t take new boss Bettoni long to realise how things have to be at FC Sion, did it? Their dour defensive showing in Ticino at the weekend spoke volumes. They were a tad unlucky to lose on the day as they did defend well, but given that it’s all that they did in the contest, they cannot really grumble about having lost in the end. I don’t expect a different display tonight either. FC Basel are not the force that they once were (contrary to what their European form suggests), and have shown plenty of signs in the Super League this season of struggling to break teams down.

Given FC Sion’s absentees, I would be surprised if they valiantly attempted any kind of attacking game here. Balotelli is still on the sidelines, depriving them of a natural striker, and thus limiting them to counters via Sio (keeping in mind that young striker Zagre is suspended). They need to protect Fickentscher in net with ex-FC Basel goalkeeper Lindner, who has bailed them out a lot this season – his understudy isn’t as good. Iapichino is likely to go straight into the squad at left-back after his return from injury because in-favour Diouf is suspended, Moubandje is out until next season, and Baltazar is not Bettoni’s favourite player right now.

Bluntly put, FC Sion have no real right to expect anything from this game. That doesn’t mean that they won’t get anything; it just means that they’re going to have to ride their luck if they do. I suspect they’ll just sit deep and counter, much like against Lugano, albeit they’d presumably like to actually attack more than they did in that game. I can’t see them beating FC Basel in a possession game so they’ll need to be more clinical, which I doubt they will.

Still, FC Sion’s defensive structure should be solid enough, assuming Iapichino hasn’t been rushed back too soon. Ziegler returns, and will presumably partner Schmied at the heart of their back four. With good, strong central midfielders in front of them, they should be able to frustrate FC Basel here for at least some of the game, potentially even all of it. The pitch at Tourbillon isn’t great, and FC Basel really have struggled to break down teams with this approach in 2023.

Keep in mind that, because of their heroic European campaign, FC Basel have played more matches than other Swiss team in 2023. They do have a big enough squad to cope with it but it’s fair to say that Vogel doesn’t fully know who he can and can’t rely on yet, which is why he continues to make the changes that he does. They’ve decreased in effectiveness, at least in the Super League. The work-rate is still there but it’s as if there’s a nervousness in this squad; they pass the ball far too slowly.

It’s also fair to say that FC Basel’s more creative players are in a similar position right now in the sense that none of them are especially consistent. Millar has been out of favour for all of this season, Ndoye hasn’t had good enough end product, Augustin hasn’t played enough (and he’s suspended), and the likes of Novoa are still learning their trade. Males is the only one that I class as having been consistently good, and he’s suspended here. Subsequently, limited service into Zeqiri or Fink is what’s been given, and they’re not the kind of strikers that can make something happen by themselves.

The visitors are more likely to win this game. They’ve got more match-winners and better players in general. They also work hard for each other. However, this is the kind of opponent that they’re likely to struggle with. I can’t deny that FC Sion are occasionally prone to implosion, but other than that, FC Basel are likely to struggle to create chances in this contest. Whether they’ll be as lucky as Lugano were last time out remains to be seen.

For me, under 2.5 goals at 6/5 simply makes sense.