TFT Issue 3973!

Greuther Furth vs Heidenheim 

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

I don’t know whether Heidenhem harbour any real intent of finishing above Darmstadt 98 this season, or whether they simply want to keep ahead of Hamburger SV, given that the top two teams are automatically promoted. Whatever the case may be though, points are required. Hamburger SV may be mentally frail but they’ve got more match-winners than both of the teams above them so Heidenheim can’t rely on them capitulating (although they’ve got a strong recent history of doing so), and catching Darmstadt 98 looks a bit of a tall order right now. For me, that means Heidenheim need to win games of this nature.

I seldom trust them to win away from home but have done so recently for two reasons. Firstly, they look remarkably focused. Secondly, Kleindienst is in top form, and when he plays well, he scores goals. It happened in the game against Hannover 96. The match itself was even, and quite poor. However, in one fifteen minute spell, Kleindienst turned the game into a 3-0 lead for his team so it pays to be mindful of the big target man when he’s in the mood – and he is.

Are Heidenheim better than Greuther Furth? I’d say so, although there’s not as much in it as the Bundesliga 2 table implies there is. Most teams at this level can beat one another. Greuther Furth have struggled with a few things this season but actual individual quality isn’t one of them. You might think that the bookies have been incredibly charitable with their odds offering here but I think they’ve mostly been quite savvy; Greuther Furth are a pain.

Still, I don’t believe that Heidenheim will lose this game, no matter what happens. My opinion is that Greuther Furth have struggled to hurt teams as much since they lost Tillman to LAFC in February, and now they find themselves without their handful attacker Ache. He’s not the most prolific of finishers, but everything else about him is hard to handle. He, Hrgota, and Abiama make for a painful set of players to handle, and Sieb plays his part too. Without Ache and Tillman though, there’s no denying that there’s less to fear from Greuther Furth.

I’d also respectfully point out that, no matter what good new boss Zorniger has done with their attack, their defence remains problematic. They don’t keep teams out, at least not without a lot of help from their opponents. He tends to favour an approach whereby he trusts his team to outscore opponents, and I get it – they should do that, more often than not. They’re not ‘there’ yet though, and that makes games like this particularly challenging for them because I don’t see a realistic “Plan B” that they can deploy for such contests.

This should be a fascinating game. Anyone thinking it’ll be easy for Heidenheim is in for a surprise. However, given their need for points, the form of Kleindienst, and the fact that a draw for Greuther Furth is actually a good result in the relegation battle, I believe that the visitors will be in control of this one, and that makes me think that they can do just enough to win it. I would not back the away win without draw no bet cover, though – that’s far too bold for me!

Verdict: Heidenheim to win with draw no bet at 9/10.

Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig 

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

If Paderborn 07 intend on having any chance of being promoted this season (which now looks increasingly unlikely, thanks to their implosion in 2023), then winning this game is a must. They’re too far behind the top three now and there aren’t that many games remaining. A win against a supposedly inferior Eintracht Braunschweig at home should not be a tall order for them, but they must do so – any more slip-ups and it really is game over.

Like I said in my preview of their game against SV Sandhausen last week though, they’re not playing with any consistency, and they’re sure as hell not playing as a unit. They’re playing as individuals. Now, Paderborn 07 do have talented individuals, especially in the final third, but their defence couldn’t keep a cow out at the moment. They don’t have any continuity there, and they look bereft of confidence when under pressure. This is not a team that is going to do well in the pressure cooker that is the business end of the season.

Although this should be an easy home win for Paderborn 07, I can see them struggling. They don’t know how to control games anymore, and they don’t intimidate opponents as much as they did earlier in the campaign. I personally find it staggering to even consider that they’re same team that started this season because the difference is incredible. Sure, they’re still capable of blitzing an opponent thanks to a good phase in the game, but they’re not playing anywhere near well enough to be fancied like they are to win this game, which is presumably why bettors are giving the visitors plenty of credence here.

Paderborn 07 could and should beat Eintracht Braunschweig; there’s no denying that. I won’t oppose them because I know they should win it too. Are they playing well enough to be trusted to manage it? Absolutely not. Are the likes of Pieringer, Leipertz, Platte, Conteh, and Muslija good enough to make it happen either way though? You bet your bottom dollar they are! That’s what makes the 1×2 market something of a ‘no go’ zone for me here. It makes sense that they’d invite a high-scoring affair though.

I doubt Eintracht Braunschweig would decline such an invitation either. They’ve looked extremely focused in their battle against relegation lately, and have been hard to score against. That’s one concern for my goals pick, I suppose – if Paderborn 07 pass the ball too slowly/cautiously and their opponents just sit back. I don’t see that happening as much here though, because the home team are there for the taking, and Eintracht Braunschweig really need to atone for their somewhat surprising home defeat against Magdeburg last time out.

Let’s not pretend that the visitors don’t have a good attack, either – they do. They may prefer to win games tactically but I’d like to think that Paderborn 07 wouldn’t permit that here. Therefore, I have to believe that the quality of Ujah and Pherai will be forced to shine because of the visitors’ need for goals, and the space that their hosts will inevitably leave for them. Lauberbach has been a handful of late too, although his finishing sure does leave a lot to be desired.

Inferior or not though, I respect Eintracht Braunschweig a lot at the moment. They’re performing above their station, are motivated to avoid relegation, and enter this game without too much pressure as Paderborn 07 are heavy favourites. The scene is set for an upset, and the away team are focused enough to make it happen. I still wouldn’t want to oppose Paderborn 07 at home, but I fancy the visitors more here, if pushed.

For me though, goals makes more sense. Both teams could really do with the win, and both teams should fancy their chances. I don’t see it being the typical all guns blazing kind of Bundesliga 2 match, but I do envision there being enough chances at both ends for there to be goals, hence my interest.

Verdict: Over 3 Asian goals at 21/20.