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KO: (UK time)
Trips to Tvoroyri are seldom easy but B36 Torshavn are in a good place right now. They’re scoring goals for fun, and it’s been a couple of years since TB were last a good team, especially up front. For me, it’s got to be an away win.
Verdict: B36 Torshavn to win at 7/25.
KO: (UK time)
Folks are opposing Adelaide United here, which I find interesting. They’ve not been good lately, it’s true, but does anyone really think that Phoenix have been any better? They looked terrified of Macarthur FC last time out, and were quite lucky to not concede at the end of the game. True enough, the 5-1 meeting between these two teams lately was not a fair reflection of what was essentially a very even contest. On the day, Adelaide United simply took their chances better; Phoenix lack something when Zawada isn’t there.
The big Pole will be playing for the Kiwis in the city of churches today but I question how close to his best he really is at the moment. Phoenix have struggled defensively of late, it’s true, but that’s nothing uncommon this season. For whatever reason, they’ve been far too easy to create chances against, particularly when they’ve attempted to bed in. What’s bailed them out is their frightening attacking capacity, and Zawada has been the leading light there, scoring goals for fun.
Not so much lately though, and it’s not through a lack of chances either. He’s lost some confidence in front of goal, and is now more reminiscent of how he looked when he first joined the club – good movement, good awareness, but poor decision-making, and a lack of composure. That, fused with Kraev’s dip in form, has made Phoenix look predictable in the final third. Barbarouses still has the odd moment but Ball looks spent, and Sasse is too inconsistent. They just don’t carry enough of an attacking threat right now, Phoenix, and their defence couldn’t keep a cow out.
The above is why I fancy Adelaide United here, really. I think they’ll struggle like crazy, should they go through in this Elimination Final, but I do think that they’re the likelier team to progress. Yes, they’ve been abject of late but they’re not up against a Mariners here, you know? I also don’t envision Halloran and Goodwin ever being as ineffectual again as they were in that game. Keep in mind that Ibusuki and Clough are back in contention for this game (although I’m dubious that either will make it) and there’s not really enough of a reason to doubt The Reds, whose best showings this season have all been at home.
Yes, I still have concerns about Adelaide United. I think Lopez is finally looking his age, as is compatriot Isaias. I think Barr struggles when pressed, and I think that they lack a passer with great vision when Clough doesn’t play. However, they still look more of a unified force than Phoenix do. They also look more likely to grind out a win in tight, low chance affairs. Their xG this season is a joke, really – but they’ve been ruthless with their chances. That’s another reason I like Adelaide United here. Despite recent showings, they know how to grind out wins in difficult contests.
I expect this game to be scrappy, nervous, and quite frankly annoying. However, I believe Adelaide United should edge it at the moment, and that they should be ashamed of themselves if they don’t – Phoenix are very much there for the taking as they look very tired.
Verdict: Adelaide United to win at 83/100.
All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United – Barnett returns. Ibusuki and Clough are slight doubts. Juande, van der Saag, Cavallo, Yull, and Bernardo are absent.
Wellington Phoenix – Old and Boxall are absent.
Austrian Bundesliga:
Wolfsberger AC – Bukusu and Gutlbauer are absent.
SCR Altach – Bahre, Nelson, Reiter, and Schreiner are absent.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Ilves – No absentees.
AC Oulu – Taskila, Coffey, and Forsstrom are absent.
SJK – No news.
Inter Turku – No news.
Haka Valkeakoski – Lescano returns.
KTP – No news.
FC Honka Espoo – No absentees.
FC Lahti – No absentees.
VPS – Vahtera, Multanen, and Jaaska are absent.
IFK Mariehamn – Raitanan, Anini Jr., Sidink, and Olawale are absent. Sjoroos returns. Coubronne returns.
KuPS – New boss – Honkavaara.
HJK – Halme returns. Tenho, Toivio, Hetemaj, Kouassivi-Benissan, and Valtteri Moren are absent.
German Bundesliga:
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Eze, Lunev, and Schick are absent. Palacios is a doubt.
Koln – F. Dietz, Kobbing, Martel, Uth, and Roloff are absent.
Mainz 05 – Burkardt, Riess, and Widmer are absent.
Schalke 04 – Balanta, Cisse, Fahrmann, Jenz, Ivan, Heekeren, Kozuki, Kolodziejczak, J. Muller, Sane, Schell, and Topp are absent.
German Bundesliga 2:
Arminia Bielefeld – Ramos is absent.
Greuther Furth – No absentees.
Hamburger SV – Jatta, Katterbach, Nemeth, and Vuskovic are absent.
Paderborn 07 – Klaas and Platte are absent.
Italian Serie B:
Perugia – Dell’Orco, Vulikic, and di Serio are absent.
Cagliari – Rog, Dossena, Falco, and Capradossi are absent. Mancosu is a doubt.
Dutch Eredivisie:
RKC Waalwijk – No absentees.
FC Volendam – No absentees.
Portuguese Liga 1:
Casa Pia – Kiki and Natel are absent.
Portimonense – No absentees.
Swiss Challenge League:
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – Alounga, Pos, and Abi are absent.
Neuchatel Xamax – Amoabeng, Balaruban, Cavanda, Maurer, Ouattara, Saiz, and Tushi are absent. Bakayoko, Pinga, and Veloso are doubts.
FC Schaffhausen – Bobadilla, Rhyner, Sahitaj, and Navarro are absent.
AC Bellinzona – Schetino, Curic, Centinaro, Durrer, Izmirlioglu, Kiassumbua, Klein, Tia, and Padula are absent. Doldur is a doubt.
Yverdon Sport – Sorensen is absent.
Lausanne Sport – Kablan is a doubt.
Aarau – Cvetkovic and Eberhard are absent.
FC Wil – Montolio, Muntwiler, Silvio, Abazi, Baumann, Maier, and Strubi are absent.
The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix (6) 1-0
Austrian Bundesliga:
Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach (6) 2-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Sibenik vs Varazdin (5) 2-1
Faroese Betrideildin:
EB/Streymur vs HB Torshavn (4) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
07 Vestur Sorvagur vs Vikingur Gota (7) 0-1
B68 Toftir vs AB (6) 2-1
TB vs B36 Torshavn (7) 1-2
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Ilves vs AC Oulu (6) 1-0
SJK vs Inter Turku (5) 0-0
Haka Valkeakoski vs KTP (6) 0-0
FC Honka Espoo vs FC Lahti (6) 2-0
VPS vs IFK Mariehamn (5) 2-1
KuPS vs HJK (5) 1-2
German Bundesliga:
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Koln (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Mainz 05 vs Schalke 04 (6) 2-1
German Bundesliga 2:
Arminia Bielefeld vs Greuther Furth (5) 2-2
Hamburger SV vs Paderborn 07 (4) 2-2
Hungarian Liga 1:
Budapest Honved vs Kecskemeti TE (5) 1-1
Italian Serie B:
Perugia vs Cagliari (5) 1-2
Dutch Eredivisie:
RKC Waalwijk vs FC Volendam (6) 1-1
Portuguese Liga 1:
Casa Pia vs Portimonense (5) 1-0
Swiss Challenge League:
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax (6) 2-1
FC Schaffhausen vs AC Bellinzona (6) 2-1
Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne Sport (5) 0-1
Aarau vs FC Wil (6) over 2.5 goals
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