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KO: (UK time)
Two wins, and the title belongs to Feyenoord; it’s that simple. I can’t see them fucking it up now. Derby or not, this is a game that they should be able to take three points from, especially if they continue to display the same level of focus as they have recently.
Verdict: Feyenoord Rotterdam to win at 1/5.
KO: (UK time)
Everybody else seems to think that this will be a low-scoring affair, which I find a bit odd. German football by default is rather attacking and confident; you don’t find many teams that will simply ‘park the bus’, and outside of Hannover 96, none of them do it very often. What we have in this do-or-die affair is an SV Sandhausen side that must win, and an Eintracht Braunschweig side that cannot lose, and should really go for the win. To me, in a division where goals are commonplace, that should produce a high-scoring affair – and that’s just the logical conclusion without delving into the finer details.
I mean, if you want finer details, consider that SV Sandhausen have no idea how to defend. No idea whatsoever. I watched their game against Jahn Regensburg last time out, and I’ve no clue how they only conceded one, especially in the second-half. Before the red card, Jahn Regensburg beguiled their opponents with simple long balls over the top, which SV Sandhausen repeatedly failed to deal with. A better goal-scoring side than them would have scored two or three, and I have to believe that Eintracht Braunschweig fall into that category.
However, there’s simply no denying that this is SV Sandhausen’s time of year, if I can put it that way. They thrive at the end of season because they’re usually in a relegation battle, just as they are now. A win here would give them a very real chance of staying up, and it’s their easiest remaining game too, given that they’re still to travel to Heidenheim and host Hamburger SV, although they do have a hilariously good record against the latter when playing them at this stage of the season.
I’d also point out that SV Sandhausen have improved under their new manager. Sure, their defence is a car crash, but don’t go underestimating their offensive potential. A lot of their striker experiments have failed this season, which is sad, but the Kinsombis and Esswein keep them in matches. The visitors have plenty of speed on the break, and are used to conceding goals so they try to play on the front foot. Again, they’ve got to go for the win here so as far as I am concerned, they’re going to invite high-scoring games for the rest of the season.
Will Eintracht Braunschweig ‘join the party’? I suppose that’s the bigger question here. I’m sure they fear losing more than they’d value winning, but they’re not exactly in a great position themselves at the moment, making far too many defensive mistakes, and frequently being punished for it. They were destroyed 5-1 by Paderborn 07 last time out, and shipped two at home against Magdeburg last time out too.
I’d actually argue that the circumstances favour the visitors here. One thing that has become painfully clear over time is that Eintracht Braunschweig prefer to be underdogs. Here, they’re favourites – and they don’t tend to thrive in such scenarios. Indeed, were they not facing an inept SV Sandhausen defence, I would not bank on them scoring. That said, Ujah is coming into form at the right time, and he’s worthy of playing in the Bundesliga on his day. Pherai is a handful, and even Lauberbach has played well lately, even if his finishing is catastrophic.
I believe that, whether they want it or not, Eintracht Braunschweig will be forced into a high-scoring match here. I can’t make up my mind if they’ll get what they want from the game or not, although I do have a leaning toward the visitors. I do believe that Eintracht Braunschweig will contribute though, and that’s all I’m really looking for here. Given the circumstances of both teams, backing over 2.5 goals simply makes sense to me at 4/5 – neither look remotely capable of defending a lead.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
KO: (UK time)
I shouldn’t fancy FC Basel in “Der Klassiker” as much as I do. Their defence was bad enough before when they were effectively left without Comas and Frei, especially with boss Vogel not really seeming to trust Adams. Now they’ve also lost Calafiori and Pelmard to injury, which almost certainly will lead to a back three containing at least one full-back, if not two. This is already FC Basel’s weakest area; it should bother me that they’re in such a position. It doesn’t, though, because their problems pale in comparison to those of FC Zurich.
For whatever reason, FC Zurich have stopped working as hard. It’s not as obvious at home as it is on the road. Everybody knows that they had a shocking start to their title defence campaign but I promise you they were far, far worse against both Luzern and Servette recently than in any of their games at the start of the season. They didn’t create in those games, didn’t close down space, and were basically ripped to pieces. Their home displays have been marginally better but away from home they’ve become horrendous, and I really can’t figure out what’s changed. Henriksen is a notoriously good motivator so it’s blown my mind, really.
FC Basel have improved lately. I still think that they’re lacking when it comes to chance creation, though. If a team sits back and defends compactly against them, then they’re totally ineffectual – and FC Zurich can do that to them. However, in recent times they’ve been a lot more clinical, and FC Basel are a lot more impressive at seeing out a lead than they are at trying to get one so they’ve been winning matches.
I am a shade bothered that FC Basel may rest players here ahead of their match against ACF Fiorentina on Thursday. However, there’s plenty of time between now and then, the game against FC Zurich is still a substantial derby, and quite honestly I don’t see how many changes they could realistically make at this time due to absentees. Therefore, I think they’ll name as strong a squad as they can, and if they do, then they should win, really. Keep in mind how good Amdouni has been lately. Diouf’s absence isn’t ideal but I think they’ll have enough in their squad to control this game, and threaten more than FC Zurich.
FC Zurich have a capable squad; don’t get me wrong now. It’s just that they’ve lost their motivation and effectiveness lately, which I find a bit weird. Playing Marchesano as a strike partner doesn’t seem the best use of his talents but the spot that used to be his is now considered a defensive midfield slot instead, and is occupied by Conde. Bluntly put, if he doesn’t play up front, he doesn’t make the squad. Fusing that with Okita only really being dangerous with space or with balls in behind…well, let’s just say that FC Zurich are somewhat predictable when attacking.
As ever, midfield is the visitors’ strength, especially with Guerrero back on the left now after a long time out. Dzemaili and Matthew are solid enough there, and won’t give much away. Unusually, they’ve encountered problems in defence recently. Katic has been benched more than normal, and as one of their best defenders, that’s odd. If anything I’d have thought they’d bench Omeragic, who’s already said he’ll leave for free in the summer (SC Freiburg is mooted to be his destination). Without Katic there though, they lack their usual dependency, and make no mistake – FC Zurich were not built to come from behind but rather to get the first goal and sit on it.
In short, I expect a very tactical affair here between two teams desperate not to concede the first goal. I don’t envision it being a classic, but one of these two teams is taking their chances a lot more ruthlessly at the moment, and that’s FC Basel. Therefore, I’ll back them to do the business here.
Verdict: FC Basel to win at 11/10.
All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.
Austrian Bundesliga:
Austria Vienna – El Sheiwi, Huskovic, Raguz, and Wustinger are absent. Galvao is a doubt.
Sturm Graz – Jantscher is absent.
Austria Klagenfurt – Straudi is absent.
LASK – Anselm, Taoui, Letard, Boller, and Wiesinger are absent.
Salzburg – Guindo, Fernando, Okafor, Kjaergaard, Omoregie, Onguene, Sucic, Tijani, and van der Brempt are absent. Gourna-Douath and Ulmer are doubts.
Rapid Vienna – Dibon, Hofmann, and Querfeld are absent.
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Antwerp – Engels, Haroun, Verhulst, Miyoshi, and Vines are absent.
Racing Genk – Cuesta is absent.
Westerlo – Bernat, Daci, and Lucas Mineiro are absent.
Cercle Brugge – David, Miangue, and Utkus are absent.
Brazilian Serie A:
America Mineiro – Marcinho is a doubt.
Cuiaba – Patric Calmon and Uendel are absent.
Sao Paulo – Caio and Joao Moreira are absent.
Internacional – Aranguiz and Gabriel are absent.
Athletico Paranaense – Bissoli, Kaique Rocha, and Marcelo Cirino are absent.
Flamengo – Filipe Luis, Matheuzinho, and Varela are absent.
Bahia – Danilo Fernandes, Marcos Victor, and Raul Gustavo are absent.
Coritiba – Henrique is absent.
Botafogo – Breno, Kayque, and Patrick de Paula are absent.
Atletico Mineiro – Allan, Alan Kardec, Guilherme Arana, Igor Rabello, and Pedrinho are absent.
Goias – Luiz Filipe and Gabriel Novaes are absent.
Palmeiras – Atuesta, Tabata, and Marcos Rocha are absent.
Gremio – Pedro Geromel is absent.
RB Bragantino – Leo Ortiz, Lomonaco, Luan Candido, Lucas Cunha, and Raul are absent.
Bulgarian A PFG:
Septemvri Sofia – New boss – Krasimir Balakov.
Pirin Blagoevgrad – Hubchev is absent.
Cherno More Varna – Atanasov and Panayotov return.
Spartak Varna – Touchline ban for boss Dimitar Dimitrov. Vasev, Joao Mario, and Antwi are absent. Cristiano Pereira is a doubt.
Botev Plovdiv – Rabotov returns. Chernev is a slight doubt.
Ludogorets Razgrad – Nedelev will debutise.
Czechia Liga 1:
Sigma Olomouc – Fortelny, Matousek, Prichystal, and Rusek are absent.
Sparta Prague – Cvancara, Jankto, Mejdr, and Pesek are absent. Celustka, Sorensen, and Vitik are doubts.
Ceske Budejovice – No absentees.
Slovan Liberec – Meszaros, Gebre Selassie, Ndefe, and Visinsky are absent.
Mlada Boleslav – No absentees.
Hradec Kralove – Cihak, Kubala, and Sevcik are absent.
Slavia Prague – Olayinka and Masopust are absent. Ewerton, Hronek, and Sevcik are doubts.
Bohemians 1905 – Beran, Matousek, Petrak, Puskac, Shejbal, and Vondra are absent. Cermak is a doubt.
Danish Superligaen:
Randers – Hoegh, Kallesoe, and Lauenborg are absent.
Brondby – No absentees.
AGF – Hvidt is absent. Duin, Kristensen, and Lund are doubts.
Viborg – Mortimer is absent. Agnarsson, Ndione, and Lauritsen are doubts.
Aalborg BK – Poulsen is absent. Pedersen and Ross are doubts.
AC Horsens – Buus and Makienok are absent.
Silkeborg – Felix, Dahl, Oggesen, and Kaalund are absent.
OB – Mucolli, Manneh, and Zohore are doubts.
Lyngby – Finnbogason and Kumado are absent.
FC Midtjylland – Andersson, Ashour, and Sisto are absent.
English Premier League:
Newcastle United – Fraser, Krafth, and Lascelles are absent. S. Longstaff and Saint-Maximin are doubts.
Arsenal – Elneny, Saliba, and Tomiyasu are absent. Gabriel is a doubt.
West Ham United – Coufal, Scamacca, and Zouma are absent. Aguerd, Rice, and Soucek are doubts.
Manchester United – Greenwood, Heaton, Jones, Martinez, Varane, McTominay, and van de Beek are absent. Garnacho is a doubt.
French Ligue 1:
Angers SCO – Chetti, Capelle, Doumbia, Diony, El Melali, Salama, Eneme-Ella, Ghoulam, Kalla, Sabanovic, and Ould Khaled are absent.
AS Monaco – Embolo, Akliouche, and Sarr are absent.
AC Ajaccio – Barreto, Cimignani, and Touzghar are absent.
Toulouse – Healey and Nicolaisen are absent.
AJ Auxerre – Boto, Massengo, Owusu, and Ruiz-Atil are absent.
Clermont Foot 38 – Djoco is absent.
Lorient – Igor Silva, Laporte, Le Bris, and Makengo are absent.
Stade Brestois – Fadiga and Remy are absent.
FC Nantes Atlantique – Chirivella, Delort, and Sissoko are absent.
Racing Club Strasbourg – Delaine, Kandil, Kawashima, Nyamsi, and Sissoko are absent.
Olympique Lyonnais – El Arouch, Lukeba, and Tagliafico are absent.
Montpellier HSC – Esteve, Makouana, and Sainte-Luce are absent.
Troyes – Conte, Ripart, and Tardieu are absent.
Paris Saint-Germain – Hakimi, Kimpembe, Messi, Mukiele, Neymar, and Pembele are absent. Mendes is a doubt.
German Bundesliga:
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund – Gurpuz, Kamara, Lotka, N. Schulz, Morey, Meunier, and Unbehaun are absent.
VfL Wolfsburg – Klinger, Lacroix, L. Nmecha, Otavio, and Schulze are absent. Van der Ven returns.
German Bundesliga 2:
Heidenheim – Beck and Qenaj are absent.
Magdeburg – Castaignos, Franzke, Halbouni, Kath, Krempicki, Kwarteng, A. Muller, Piccini, Rieckmann, and Schuler are absent.
Nurnberg – S. Blum, Duman, Gyamerah, Mathenia, Wekesser, Puerta, and F. Hubner are absent.
Kaiserslautern – de Preville is absent.
Eintracht Braunschweig – Ihorst is absent.
SV Sandhausen – Diekmeier is absent.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Jerusalem – Malmoud and Altman are absent.
Maccabi Netanya – Korin and Rotman are absent.
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo – Lookman, Palomino, Ruggeri, and Hateboer are absent.
Juventus – Jorge, de Sciglio, and Paredes are absent.
Torino – Vieira, Zima, Aina, Radonjic, Schuurs, and Singo are absent.
Monza – No absentees.
Udinese – Pafundi, Success, Deulofeu, Ebosse, and Ehizibue are absent.
Sampdoria – Leris, Pussetto, Audero, Conti, and Amione are absent.
SSC Napoli – Mario Rui is absent.
ACF Fiorentina – Sirigu and Martinez Quarta are absent.
Lecce – Pongracic is absent.
Hellas Verona – Henry, Hrustic, and Lasagna are absent.
Italian Serie B:
Parma – Hainaut, Zagaritis, Valenti, and Cobbaut are absent.
Brescia – Olzer and Listkowski are absent.
Dutch Eredivisie:
FC Emmen – Veldmate, Hoesen, Mendes, Guclu, Hardeveld, Kieftenbeld, and Lieder are absent.
FC Twente Enschede – Bruns and Hilgers are absent.
Excelsior Rotterdam – Nieuwpoort, Fein, Markelo, Besuijen, and Donkor are absent.
Feyenoord Rotterdam – Walemark, Timber, and Benita are absent.
Go Ahead Eagles – Nauber, Oppergard, and Mattiello are absent.
FC Groningen – Verrips, van Gelderen, Blokzijl, and Abraham are absent.
Fortuna Sittard – No absentees.
Vitesse Arnhem – Propper and Wittek are absent.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Aalesund FK – Ammitzboll is absent. Stolas is a doubt.
Haugesund – Eskesen is absent.
Hamarkameratene – Opsahl is absent. Dunn-Johnson and Sjolstad are doubts.
Molde FK – Ellingsen and Haugen are absent. Andersen, Berisha, and Sinyan are doubts.
Stabaek – No absentees.
Sarpsborg 08 – No absentees.
Tromso – Mikaelsson and Oyvann are absent. Traore is a doubt.
Odd – Solholm is absent. Hien is a doubt.
Viking Stavanger – Kvia-Egeskog and Urbancic are doubts.
Stromsgodset – Stenevik is a doubt.
Lillestrom SK – Lundemo, Roseth, Solberg, and Vindheim are doubts.
Bodo/Glimt – Saltnes and Vetti are absent. Fet is a doubt.
Portuguese Liga 1:
Maritimo Funchal – Trmal is absent.
Rio Ave – Joca, Pantalon, and Ventura are absent.
Vitoria Guimaraes – Fonseca Amaro is absent.
Vizela – No absentees.
Pacos de Ferreira – Hernani Infande is a doubt.
Sporting Clube de Portugal – Cabral, Braganca, and St. Juste are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Malmo FF – Siby, Moisander, Diawara, and Tinnerholm are doubts.
AIK Solna – E.Durmaz, Thill, and Papagiannopoulos are doubts.
Halmstad – Wallentin is absent. Allansson and Baffoe are doubts.
BK Hacken Goteborg – Sadiq is a doubt. Hammar, Si. Gustafson, Tebo, Trpchevski, Turgott, Youssef, and Sana are absent.
Swiss Super League:
Luzern – Emini, Toggenburger, Campo, Klidje, L. Meyer, Sorgic, and Kadak are absent.
Lugano – Hajdari, Sabbatini, Babic, Daprela, Mahou, and Mai are absent.
FC Basel – Diouf, Calafiori, Comas, Pelmard, and Frei are absent. Hitz is a doubt.
FC Zurich – Santini and Tosin are absent.
Grasshopper Zurich – de Carvalho, Momoh, Ribeiro, and Schettine are absent.
Servette – Cespedes, Clichy, Douline, Bauer, and Magnin are absent. Crivelli is a doubt.
Swiss Challenge League:
FC Thun – Asani, Bamert, Hirzel, and Rudlin are absent. Burki and dos Santos are doubts.
Vaduz – Rahimi, Iodice, and Wieser are absent. Gajic is a doubt.
Turkish Super Lig:
Umraniyespor – Avounou and K. Yilmaz are doubts. Kirintili and M. Yilmaz are absent.
Sivasspor – Yalcin and Okumus are doubts. Camara, Appindangoye, Vural, Djerlek, and Angielski are absent.
Konyaspor – Demirbag and Yazgili are doubts. Demir, Muric, Ikpeazu, and Cekici are absent.
Kayserispor – Bayazit and Karimi are absent. Korkmaz and Carole are doubts.
Giresunspor – Savicevic, Senghor, and Perez are absent.
Fenerbahce – Willian, Kahveci, Bayindir, and Lincoln are absent.
The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.
Austrian Bundesliga:
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz (5) 1-2
Austria Klagenfurt vs LASK (5) 0-1
Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna (6) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Antwerp vs Racing Genk (5) 2-2
Westerlo vs Cercle Brugge (6) 1-0
Brazilian Serie A:
America Mineiro vs Cuiaba (5) 1-0
Sao Paulo vs Internacional (6) 1-1
Athletico Paranaense vs Flamengo (5) 1-1
Bahia vs Coritiba (6) 2-1
Botafogo vs Atletico Mineiro (5) 0-1
Goias vs Palmeiras (6) 0-1
Gremio vs RB Bragantino (5) 2-1
Bulgarian A PFG:
Septemvri Sofia vs Pirin Blagoevgrad (5) 1-1
Cherno More Varna vs Spartak Varna (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Botev Plovdiv vs Ludogorets Razgrad (5) 1-2
Croatian Prva Liga:
NK Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb (5) 1-1
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Hajduk Split (5) 1-2
Czechia Liga 1:
Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Prague (6) 1-2
Ceske Budejovice vs Slovan Liberec (5) 1-1
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Kralove (6) over 2.5 goals
Slavia Prague vs Bohemians 1905 (6) 2-0, at least one red card in this game
Danish Superligaen:
Randers vs Brondby (5) 1-1
AGF vs Viborg (6) 1-0
Aalborg BK vs AC Horsens (5) 1-0
Silkeborg vs OB (6) 2-1
Lyngby vs FC Midtjylland (6) 1-2
English Premier League:
Newcastle United vs Arsenal (5) 2-2
West Ham United vs Manchester United (5) 1-2
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Kuressaare vs Flora Paide (6) 0-0
Flora Tallinn vs Nomme Kalju (6) 1-0
Trans Narva vs Vaprus Parnu (6) 2-0
Tallinna Kalev vs Tammeka (5) 1-0
Finnish Ykkonen:
Gnistan vs Ekenas IF (5) 1-0
Jaro Pietarsaari vs TPS (6) 1-1
French Ligue 1:
Angers SCO vs AS Monaco (5) 1-1
AC Ajaccio vs Toulouse (5) 1-0
AJ Auxerre vs Clermont Foot 38 (6) 0-0
Lorient vs Stade Brestois (6) 2-1
FC Nantes Atlantique vs Racing Club Strasbourg (5) 1-1
Olympique Lyonnais vs Montpellier HSC (6) over 2.5 goals
Troyes vs Paris Saint-Germain (5) 1-2
German Bundesliga:
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Wolfsburg (6) over 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
Heidenheim vs Magdeburg (7) 2-0
Nurnberg vs Kaiserslautern (6) 0-0
Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Sandhausen (5) over 2.5 goals
Hungarian Liga 1:
Zalaegerszegi TE vs Puskas FC (5) 1-2
Fehervar vs Mezokovesd-Zsory (5) 1-0
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Netanya (5) 1-1
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo vs Juventus (5) 1-1
Torino vs Monza (6) 2-1
Udinese vs Sampdoria (6) 1-0
SSC Napoli vs ACF Fiorentina (6) 2-1
Lecce vs Hellas Verona (5) 1-1
Italian Serie B:
Parma vs Brescia (6) 2-0, at least one red card in this game
Dutch Eredivisie:
FC Emmen vs FC Twente Enschede (6) 1-2
Excelsior Rotterdam vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (7) 0-2, at least one red card in this game
Go Ahead Eagles vs FC Groningen (6) 2-0
Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse Arnhem (5) 0-0
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Aalesund FK vs Haugesund (5) 1-1
Hamarkameratene vs Molde FK (6) 0-1
Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 (5) 1-1
Tromso vs Odd (6) 2-1
Viking Stavanger vs Stromsgodset (6) over 2.5 goals
Lillestrom SK vs Bodo/Glimt (5) 2-2
Portuguese Liga 1:
Maritimo Funchal vs Rio Ave (5) 1-0
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Vizela (5) 1-1
Pacos de Ferreira vs Sporting Clube de Portugal (6) 1-2
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Malmo FF vs AIK Solna (6) 2-0
Halmstad vs BK Hacken Goteborg (5) 1-2
Swiss Super League:
Luzern vs Lugano (5) 2-2
FC Basel vs FC Zurich (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Grasshopper Zurich vs Servette (5) 2-2
Swiss Challenge League:
FC Thun vs Vaduz (5) over 2.5 goals
Turkish Super Lig:
Umraniyespor vs Sivasspor (5) 1-0
Konyaspor vs Kayserispor (5) 0-0
Giresunspor vs Fenerbahce (6) 0-2
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