TFT Issue 399!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
IFK Goteborg vs Malmo – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan grudge match between two of Sweden’s most successful sides in IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF.
I feel a bit sorry for IFK this season, really. They’ve had some bad luck and despite working harder than most sides in the division, elementary mistakes have cost them points and it’s probably going to cost them their shot at the title with Elfsborg Boras looking so invincible right now.
Don’t let that put you off betting on IFK in future, though. They’ve been playing well of late, winning three out of their last four games with their only blemish being the nightmarish trip to Boras to take on Elfsborg, which most sides will lose in each season. Today they welcome back Selakovic and Sobralense, which means that the only casualty is Sana. He’s a regular in midfield but let’s face it – if there’s one place that IFK can afford absentees then it’s midfield. After all, they’ve effectively got two midfields good enough to compete in the Allsvenskan so I’m not too concerned by Sana’s absence, good though he’s unquestionably been this season.
IFK have struggled this season with getting their new players to gel but that’s showing less and less as time goes by. They’re already starting to look a stronger unit than they did at the start of the season, which is refreshing to see. There’s a lot of experience as well as a lot of talent in the IFK camp, which helps them massively. Hysen is arguably the best striker in Sweden but he’s not carrying the team this season, which really helps IFK as they’re nowhere near as predictable nowadays. Stiller, Selakovic, Sobralense, Gerzic – they’re all able to do the job going forward now that Pontus Farnerud is sat in front of the back four. IFK have given their attackers the freedom to roam and wreak havoc so that’s exactly what they’re doing. They occasionally miss a touch of finesse in front of goal but I don’t expect that to be a problem for them today as Malmo FF’s defence is far from convincing at the best of times. Defensively, IFK are still vulnerable against good sides and I think that they’ll concede here against a good Malmo FF side. Whether IFK will win the game or not is not something I can help you with, though – this game really is on the knife-edge.
Malmo FF enter this game with massive confidence and momentum following their 3-0 derby win against Helsingborg in their last game. Truth be told, Malmo dominated Helsingborg so easily that 6-0 would not have been an unfair scoreline. Malmo could be accused of being a little complacent in front of goal but as that was the only thing that they did wrong in the game, we can’t really go overboard with criticism of the sky blue-and-whites here.
Malmo’s biggest problem is their mentality. You simply never know which side is going to show up. On their day, the only side that can match them for goalscoring ability is Elfsborg and that’d only be in Boras. When they’re playing an average game, they’re capable of conceding at any stage and they’re often in danger of bottling it, especially when they’re expected to win. I mean, take their games with Atvidaberg at home and Mjallby away in the past few weeks, for example. Malmo were expected to win both games fairly comfortably but they drew away a 0-2 lead in Solvesborg to draw 2-2 and nearly threw away a 1-0 lead at home against Atvidaberg, conceding with just minutes remaining in the game but managing to score again at the death. Malmo tend to show up for the big games, though, especially if they’re not expected to. With IFK as favourites today, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Malmo show up and produce a “shock” win here as they’re more than capable of doing so.
Would I bet on that outcome, though? Not a prayer. I’d argue that Malmo are better at going forward than IFK are right now because Durmaz, Larsson, Ranegie, Hamad, and Wilton have been unplayable of late. There’s so much pace and movement that I doubt IFK can handle them here. That said, how on earth will Malmo keep IFK out here? They’ve got one of the worst defensive records in the Allsvenskan right now and they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet on the road this season. In fact, it’s far worse than that – they’ve conceded at least two goals per away game this season, conceding a total of twelve goals over four away games! For a big side, it’s just not good enough. Malmo occasionally look slow and their positioning is questionable from a defensive perspective so I can’t back Malmo here, as confident as they’ll unquestionably be following their demolition of Helsingborg.
However, I do expect a great game between these two sides. Whether you bet on it or not, this is the game to watch today, in my eyes. If you forced me to pick a winner then I’d have to lean toward Malmo purely because they tend to show up when the odds are against them. However, I couldn’t advise you on betting on any outcome from a 1×2 perspective unless you make up your own minds in-play. The market that does interest me is to take over 2.5 goals here, though. I cannot see this game ending without both sides scoring and I expect someone to win this game as Malmo cannot afford to stumble with Elfsborg pulling away and IFK need to start moving up the table with some consistency. For me, over 2.5 goals is a steal at 9/10, although it’s quite interesting to note that five out of the last six meetings between these two sides have involved only one side scoring! I won’t rule out one side battering the other here but I think that this will be a tight game.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Additional games
Nordsjaelland vs OB Odense – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 10/11.
With FC Copenhagen whimpering their way to the finish line, the onus is on Nordsjaelland to deliver the Superligaen crown and they look to me like they’re relishing the challenge. They were very determined in their 1-0 win against Copenhagen themselves and they followed that win up with an efficient 0-2 win at Lyngby, taking Nordsjaelland’s run to five consecutive wins. Another win today would see Nordsjaelland go top of the league with just two games remaining and with Copenhagen’s season imploding, you really have to fancy Nordsjaelland to do the damage here.
Whether Nordsjaelland can defend or not isn’t something that interests me. However, their ability to attack and score goals this season has been the catalyst for their success and I think that’s what’ll win them the game today. It’s hard to list any of their players as stars but their cohesion and work-rate is superb, which I admire in them. Nordsjaelland have a lot of belief in themselves and should be spurred on by Copenhagen’s demise yesterday. Let’s face it – they couldn’t have wish for a better run in, could they? They host OB Odense today – who hate FC Copenhagen – and travel to Brondby – who also hate FC Copenhagen – before hosting AC Horsens on the final day of the season. I wouldn’t say that their opponents are particularly easy but I would say that they’re somewhat favourable as far as where their loyalties lie and their committments elsewhere go.
Can OB Odense upset Nordsjaelland here? Sure they can. They’re absolutely good enough to do so, contrary to what the Superligaen table suggests. However, OB Odense are massively short on confidence and potency right now and with no motivation to wake them up, I fail to see why they’ll make a stand today. They did against FC Copenhagen because they hate FC Copenhagen and the hosts in that game made it very easy for OB Odense by not putting any effort into it. The records are there for all to see as to what has happened to OB Odense in recent weeks when taking on a determined and efficient side, however, with OB having lost three out of their last five games and three out of their five away games in 2012, failing to score in three of those games. OB Odense just want the season to be over so they can re-group over the Summer, sign a replacement for top striker Utaka, and then try to compete for the Superligaen title again. With that mentality clearly instilled in the mind of each player and the lack of moviation on show, I find it hard to envision OB Odense preventing Nordsjaelland from winning this game.
This is not a banker but I don’t expect it to lose unless OB randomly demonstrate their potential for no reason at all. Nordsjaelland are in the ascendancy and they’re playing with much more belief and purpose right now so they’re the side that I have to favour here. For me, taking Nordsjaelland to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 9/10 is well worth a flutter today, especially as OB Odense don’t like FC Copenhagen!
Verdict: Nordsjaelland to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 10/11.
Gefle vs GIF Sundsvall – away win with draw no bet at 11/10.
This is by far my riskiest call of the day but I still like it quite a lot and I’ll explain why.
Ok, let’s introduce Gefle to you all. They’re a defensive side that love to irritate the bigger sides by “parking the bus” and either scoring from set pieces or by being physically stronger than their opponents and being made to look like a good side, which they’re not. They’re horribly short on depth this season and are very short on quality. Their sole remaining advantage in the current campaign is their artificial turf, which most Allsvenskan sides don’t have. It’s not helped them so far, though – they’ve averaged scoring a goal per every two games at home this season. They’ve battled well against AIK Solna in their 0-1 loss but they just capitulated against fellow relegation battlers IFK Norrkoping, losing 0-2. Gefle have a real shortage of firepower and although they’re deceptively good at possessing the ball and stopping their opponents from playing, they’re absolutely awful at putting the ball in the net. I’d never go heavily against them with a big side unless that side was very much in-form but in a game that Gefle are favourites to win, I’m more than happy to oppose them as they hate being favourites. Gefle have zero weapons for breaking sides down; they’re only good on the counter-attack, and even then it’s quite a patchy kind of “good”!
So why should GIF Sundsvall win here? It’s not an easy game, that’s for sure. However, GIF Sundsvall are very good at keeping the ball and they’ve been devastating on the counter-attack each time I’ve watched them this season. I watched them host Helsingborg lately and I still can’t understand how they lost the game as they were rarely out of control of the game and just that one mistake at the back allowed Helsingborg to poach a winner. I would have to blame GIF Sundsvall for not taking their chances but then again, Helsingborg are supposedly a lot better than they are so I’ll not be too harsh on the newcomers. Everywhere GIF Sundsvall have played this season, though, they’ve tended to score goals and that’s what I expect from them today. They’ve got some very quick attackers and are not a side to underestimate. Defensively, they’re a pretty weak side and that could go against them here but to be honest, if they score in this game then I don’t expect them to lose because Gefle are so ineffectual in the final third.
One final point – Gefle are hopeless at coming from behind. They’re good with a lead for obvious reasons but getting that lead has proven to be a huge problem so far this season and unless a new Gerndt randomly appears in a sky blue shirt in the near future, I think we’ll be waving goodbye to Gefle this season. There’s not much between these two sides on paper but GIF Sundsvall have more belief and far more potency so for me, taking the away win with draw no bet cover appeals to me massively at 11/10. Approach it with caution, though – this will be on Gefle’s list of games that they must win if they intend on avoiding the drop this season. Expect cards here!
Verdict: GIF Sundsvall to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Team News
Bulgarian A PFG:
Cherno More Varna – Palominho, Fernandes, Manolov, Denchev, and Bozhilov are absent. Kolev is a doubt.
Vidma-Rakovski – No absentees.
Danish Superligaen:
Nordsjaelland – Lorentzen and Runje return.
OB Odense – Johansson, Reginiussen, Jesper Christiansen, and H.H. Andreassen are absent.
Romanian Liga:
Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt – Garcia is absent.
Astra Ploiesti – S.Lung, Gaman, Al.Stan, and Budescu are absent. Boss Rednic is also suspended.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
IFK Goteborg – Sana is absent. Selakovic and Sobralense return.
Malmo FF – No absentees.
Gefle – No news.
GIF Sundsvall – No news.