TFT Issue 402!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Bayern Munich vs Chelsea – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Today’s featured game is the only one that most people are interested in today, coincidentally – it’s the UEFA Champions League Final between Bayern Munich and Chelsea. This final is behind held in Munich so you’d have to imagine that the advantage lies with Bayern Munich today.
However, I have a slightly different angle on that. The last final I watched that involved a side playing at their home ground against an opposing side was the UEFA Cup Final back in 2004 between Sporting Clube de Lisboa and CSKA Moscow. In that game, Sporting took the lead and still lost the game 1-3, being totally outfought and outthought by their Russian opponents. They looked much more pressurised because they were playing at home, in my opinion, which is why I am dubious about Bayern’s wonderful stadium actually being as much of a bonus to them as people are suggesting that it is.
I do believe that Bayern will beat Chelsea, for what it’s worth. I can’t accept the odds on it happening, however – no side should be 4/5 to win in a final as big as this, especially not a hot-and-cold side like Bayern. They’ve got some of the best midfielders in the world and yet they’ve also got some average players on either side of them. Chelsea are very similar in this respect as they’ve also got some world-class players and some very average players. With that in mind, I see zero value in backing a winner here unless you see something in-play to change your mind.
I find a lot of value in the overs market, to be honest. It’s a bit of a risky one because finals cause nerves and tension so a number of sides will generally be an awful lot more cautious than normal whilst having the lead. However, having observed the players that are missing this game for both sides, I’m confident that neither of them can actually hold a lead with any conviction here if both sides attack properly.
For Chelsea, inspirational leader Terry misses out, which damages their defensive shape significantly. I won’t wax lyrical over him as much as most as I feel that there are a few better defenders than him in the Premier League. Nonetheless, he’s a very good defender and where he excels is in organising those around him, communicating, and leading from the front. Chelsea will miss that tonight, especially if they fall behind. They also miss Ivanovic, who can be a shade haphazard at times but is first into a challenge and is a monster in the air, like most Serbian defenders that come to mind. Those two absentees mean that Chelsea’s chances of scoring from set pieces are severely reduced, as is their ability to defend set pieces. Anytime goalscorer Gomez, anyone? I don’t rate him but he’s big and strong in the air, after all. Additionally, Chelsea have two further crippling absentees in Meireles and Ramires. It’s not so much their ability that concerns me regarding their absence but their energy, stamina, and closing down abilities, which are absolutely essential if they intend on beating a frankly superior and highly energetic Bayern Munich side. I can’t see anyone fit enough to replace either of them and I think that will massively hurt Chelsea in this game.
Still, Bayern themselves have absentees to contend with as Brazilian battleaxe Luis Gustavo misses out through suspension, unsurprisingly. Centre-back Badstuber is also absent and those two cause a susceptible Bayern defensive shape a lot of problems. On top of that, impressive full-back Alaba also misses out and although I feel that they’ll miss him more from an attacking perspective than a defensive perspective, his absence will be noted, especially for his strength, so there is definitely room for Mata etc. to operate.
With all of the above in mind, I can’t help but feel that we’re going to see goals here. I think it may be cagey in the opening exchanges as neither side wants to concede an early goal but as soon as we’ve had one goal then I expect there to be a good number more. Again, I would edge toward Bayern but the odds are too short. Instead, taking over 2.5 goals at evens looks a peach of a bet if both sides maintain their composure.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Additional game
CSKA Sofia vs Litex Lovech – home win at 5/6.
Although this will unquestionably be a tight game, I really have to fancy CSKA Sofia to win it. They’ve overcome tremendous adversity to be where they are in the A PFG right now and I don’t think they’re going to let it slide now. They look very motivated and have a strong sense of cohesion, which is pleasing. I was truly amazed to see this side simply carry on without the departed Zicu and Delev as if nothing had changed and that’s testament to how strong this CSKA side actually is. They’ve already won twelve out of fourteen at home this season and a win today would take them closer to that A PFG title that they so badly desire. They lost their last game at Minior Pernik but I wouldn’t read much into that. Minior Pernik only compete in this league because they love to upset the big Sofia clubs as they view them as rivals. It’s probably the only game I’ve seen for a few months where an opponent has wanted to win it more than CSKA have. On top of that, CSKA’s final game is with Ludogorets – away! They do not want to have to go into that game desperately needing a win; they want to enter it knowing that a mere draw sees them lift the A PFG trophy. CSKA must win this game and they’ve looked better than Litex have all season long. Litex have looked a shadow of their former selves and had it not been for assistance from the referees then perhaps they wouldn’t be where they are now. This Litex side is not as good as the one we’ve seen over the past few years and I think they’ll be exposed by a determined CSKA side here. For me, CSKA winning at 5/6 looks a good bet here.
Verdict: CSKA Sofia to win at 5/6.
Team news
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