TFT Issue 403!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
BK Hacken Goteborg vs Djurgarden – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan encounter between Hacken and Djurgarden.
Hacken have been the surprise package this season, scoring goals for fun and playing a carefree style of football that has attracted plenty of admiring glances. They’re just five points adrift of league leaders Elfsborg Boras so there’s a chance that they’ll be in the title race. Let’s face it – they’ve realistically got more chance than AIK Solna or Helsingborg because they score goals. I’d not go overboard with Hacken as their defence isn’t great and they’re not packed with class acts. They do have a strong sense of belief and tenacity, however, and that really works for them. Nobody ever really expects a lot of Hacken, which is interesting because they do tend to deliver a lot, irrespective of who they lose each Summer. For example, they lost hotshot Ranegie to Malmo FF pre-season; did Hacken baulk? Nope – they’ve looked better than ever! Waris is in terrific form and although I question his composure from time to time, he’s making all the right movement and is a nightmare to play against right now. Playmaker Ericsson and battling Makondele have both had good seasons behind him and all of that combined has led to Hacken producing some breathtaking displays. They’ve won three out of their last four games and have scored a minimum of two goals in each game. Only Helsingborg have beaten Hacken during that run because they managed to score three goals. That’s what you’re up against with Hacken, really – score lots of goals or you lose the game. They smashed six goals past IFK Norrkoping in their last game but that wasn’t a great surprise given that IFK Norrkoping only motivate themselves against big sides and because they can’t defend for shit. Thus, conceding twice in ten minutes led to heads dropping and a lack of fight, hence a delighted Hacken running riot. I very much doubt that we’ll see a repeat of that 6-0 scoreline here but with the way that Hacken are playing right now, I certainly wouldn’t rule it out.
Of course, I expect Djurgarden to give a much tougher test to their hosts than IFK Norrkoping did. Hopefully my faith in Djurgarden is not misplaced here because I have a soft spot for them! I’ve watched them innumerate times this season and they’ve always impressed me with their strong sense of belief and attacking style. Well, that was until I watched them host Gefle last time out. Djurgarden were poor in that game – too poor. I saw something in that game that bothered me a lot and it was Djurgarden not fighting for the ball. With 25 minutes left on the clock and a 1-1 scoreline in Stockholm against a side that Djurgarden are better than sitting back against them, Djurgarden were not working hard and they did very little to Gefle, hence the final score being 1-1. If that continues, Djurgarden are in a really bad place because their continuous work ethic is something that makes them hard to play against. Maybe they were missing the suspended Keene more than I’d anticipated for an easy home game but either way, Djurgarden were bad. Djurgarden are good at attacking with pace and skill but they’re horrific when it comes to defending. There’s not a side in this division that they can keep out without a lot of fortune, hence their predicament. Something occurred in their match with Gefle that means that centre-back Pedersen is absent today through injury. Considering that they’re already horrific at the back and are now travelling to face the highest-scoring side in the Allsvenskan, things are not too rosy for Djurgarden right now.
With all of the above in mind, I can’t help but feel that we’re in for a heavy Hacken win. I’ve got a 3-1 scoreline in my head but I just don’t see how Djurgarden will escape without losing this game. Therefore, my call is for Hacken to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Verdict: BK Hacken Goteborg to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Additional games
Botafogo vs Sao Paulo – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
It’s easy to see why people are taking Sao Paulo for this game, despite it being the opening Serie A game of the season for each club and despite Sao Paulo not being the best travellers. Botafogo are missing their best defender for this game – Antonio Carlos – and also talented midfield duo Elkeson and Mattos. Still, if there’s one area that Botafogo can afford ]absentees then it’s in midfield. There are a lot of doubts over their midfield tonight, though, with Andrezinho and Fellype Gabriel facing late fitness tests. It may be worth waiting for the starting line-up as to determine whether Botafogo can contribute to the scoreline here or not. I fully expect Botafogo to concede because they’re not the best at defending and because their best defender is out. With Herrera and Abreu up front, you have goals if they get the service. Therefore, I really need Fellype Gabriel to be playing in this game! If so, I’m happy to take over 2.5 goals in this game as Botafogo are a very underrated side when it comes to playing at home. The Rio de Janeiro vs Sao Paulo rivalry will ensure that this is a passionate game and with both sides specialising in goalscoring, I do like the idea of taking over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Brondby vs Nordsjaelland – away win at 9/10.
Although Zealand is never an easy place for an away side to win, I have to fancy Nordsjaelland to do the business here. Brondby have been woeful this season and yet ironically should be where Nordsjaelland are now, vying for the title. Brondby struggle to score goals due to the fact that they’ve had to sell a lot of good players thanks to their crippling debts. Brondby have no motivation right now as Lyngby are either going to be relegated by conventional methods or by the Danish FA and most Brondby players are jumping ship. Ex-Ajax youngster Krohn-Deli is moving on in Summer and rumour mill is suggesting that Rommedahl will be joining him. Brondby’s attack grows even thinner, just like their chances of avoiding the drop next season. Brondby can’t keep a clean sheet as it is but if they’re not scoring goals then they’re effectively a big club version of Lyngby, essentially. Brondby have been particularly bad of late, losing 5-1 at AGF Aarhus in their last game and winning just once in their last three home games. I also get the impression that Brondby wouldn’t be terribly upset if losing this game meant that bitter rivals FC Copenhagen didn’t win the Superligaen. Hmm! Nordsjaelland need to show up to win here, though. Head-to-heads show Brondby with a clear advantage although to be fair Nordsjaelland haven’t been as good as they are now for a long time and Brondby haven’t been as bad as they are for a long time. Nordsjaelland lost their composure against OB Odense in their last game and failed to score, which was a shame. I hope that it doesn’t stay that way because they way they’ve played this season means that they’ve deserved to win the Superligaen, in my view. As long as Nordsjaelland regain their composure for this game then backing them to win at 9/10 looks very appealing here.
Verdict: Nordsjaelland to win at 9/10.
NSI Runavik vs B36 Torshavn – home win with +1.5 handicap at 6/5.
NSI Runavik’s statistics makes them look a lot worse than they actually are, you know. Their performances haven’t been too convincing, admittedly, and they’re lacking a killer in front of goal. However, to treat this side lightly in Runavik is a mistake, in my view. Vikingur Gotu won here but that’s a derby game – anything can happen in derbies, as we all know. You’ll note that NSI Runavik’s woes predominantly stem from them failing to score enough goals. Their defence is predominantly reliable and given that they’re going to be motivated against giants B36 Torshavn, I fancy the hosts to cause their opponents at least a few issues. Simin Hansen and goalkeeper Joensen return for B36 Torshavn but Captain Klaemint Matras is still absent and that damages them in midfield. They’re still good enough to win this game with the best striker in the Faroe Islands at their disposal in Polish hitman Lukasz Cieslewicz but they’ve not been convincing of late. Truth be told, it’s the wonderful set pieces of Suni Olsen that is doing the most damage for B36 and their desperation in attack has increased tenfold by the rapidly growing use 16-year old striker Sorensen to try and inspire the team. They’ve been poor lately, B36, and the fact that the +1.5 handicap would give NSI Runavik victory here for every game involving these two sides in Runavik since 1999 does encourage me enough to consider it a good value bet at 6/5.
Verdict: Vikingur Gotu to win with +1.5 handicap at 6/5.
Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens – home win at evens.
I’ve not been a big fan of Panathinaikos this season. Frankly, I feel that they’re lucky to be in with a chance of competing in the UEFA Champions League this season given the awful and ineffectual displays that they’ve produced. However, when the chips were down, Panathinaikos turned it on and now find themselves in pole position to be playing UEFA Champions League football next season. They’ve actually looked good of late and now that the talented Soritis Ninis is finally back in their ranks to inspire them and make things happen. It’s true that a draw will suffice for Panathinaikos today but AEK Athens have to attack them and that doesn’t fit in with their style at all well when playing away from home. AEK are a difficult side to beat when they can play their defensive game but that simply isn’t an option for them here. It’s an Athens derby so approach with caution but Panathinaikos have looked really impressive of late so the home win appeals to me a lot at evens.
Verdict: Panathinaikos to win at evens.
Zalaegerszegi TE vs Paksi SE – away win at evens.
I can’t add a lot to this one that the Soproni Liga table doesn’t already show, to be honest. ZTE are already relegated and their players are concentrating on finding new clubs. They are a poor side at best and concede against everyone. Paksi SE are not the best travellers but they’ve looked good lately, playing with confidence and scoring goals. A UEFA Europa League place is on the horizon if they keep winning and with attacking football their preferred style anyway, I fancy them to break through a poor ZTE side at evens.
Verdict: Paksi SE to win at evens.
Stabaek vs Haugesund – away win at 9/10.
Stabaek are still in the mess that they were at the start of the season due to an absence of quality and experience. They’re working hard, to their credit, but they’re having no joy against any side that can hold a line and that can score goals. Haugesund aren’t my favourite side to back on the road because they’re very much a home side. However, they’ve looked good on the road this season, which has surprised me a lot. Grindhaug’s side are scoring goals galore with Durdic and Sonderlund in fine form and with plenty of experience in their team, it’s hard to see them failing to win at a vastly inferior Stabaek side today at generous odds of 9/10.
Verdict: Haugesund to win at 9/10.
Olimpia Elblag vs Dolcan Zabki – away win at 9/10.
Given that Olimpia Elblag are already relegated, I fancy Dolcan Zabki to have sufficient motivation to win this one today. The hosts aren’t going to just lie down and take it but they’re rarely able to stop a side from scoring goals and without motivation they’re going to find it hard to score goals. Dolcan Zabki are notoriously hard to beat at home but on the road they tend to be more vulnerable. The threat of relegation in recent weeks has propelled them into a desperate run of good form during which they score plenty of goals. They’ve shown no fear, though, which I admire. They lost 3-2 at league leaders Piast Gliwice and have followed that up with extremely impressive wins at Sandecja Nowy Sacz and against Nieciecza, both of which are vying for promotion! Dolcan Zabki are battling like heroes and are scoring goals for fun and with those two advantages on their side, I fancy them to beat one of the worst sides in Liga 1 at 9/10, especially with essential defender Pacan absent.
Verdict: Dolcan Zabki to win at 9/10.
Orebro vs Syrianska Sodertalje – home win at 9/10.
I’ve made a tidy profit from opposing Orebro for the majority of this season but I won’t be opposing them today. I’ve mentioned time and time again that not all clubs are bottom of the league due to being the worst team. Sometimes, it’s down to bad luck and I personally believe that is the case with Orebro. They still need to sort their shocking defence out but their attack is as dangerous as most sides’ attack in the Allsvenskan and all they need is a bit of luck to show it. I watched them entertain AIK Solna last match and although they rode their luck in the 2-2 draw, they did earn it by battling harder than they have at any other stage this season and by closing AIK down. I liked what I saw in Orebro last match as it reminded me of their old ways last season. Grahn is inspiring them and they’ve got more than enough going forward to damage their opponents so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt here.
Visitors Syrianska are a decent side but nothing more than that. I like to play them when they’re motivated (e.g. when playing a big side) because they’re a tough unit to break through at those times and they do have the odd goal in them. However, when taking on a “lesser” side, it becomes a case of Sharbel Touma vs whoever Syrianska are facing. The ex-AIK winger has been in great form this season and is unquestionably the most dangerous man in Syrianska’s colours. However, he won’t be playing today because as talented and experienced as he is, he’s actually a bit of a prat. He decided to throw an opponent to the ground against Atvidaberg last match when already on a yellow card. To me, it was a straight red anyway but he was fortunate enough to get a yellow card, although that still resulted in him being sent off. Syrianska weren’t bad in that game but that ruined any chance of them taking anything. Touma is everything to them in attack and his absence could not be more costly for the visitors today.
Orebro can concede goals against any Allsvenskan side but with the momentum taken from their draw with AIK Solna and the firepower in their possession, I feel that they’re well worth taking against Syrianska today, particularly with Touma missing out for the visitors.
Verdict: Orebro to win at 9/10.
Mjallby Solvesborg vs Gefle – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Mjallby’s impressive streak continued with a 1-1 draw against a superior IFK Goteborg side earlier this week and I can’t help but admire their cohesion and ability to frustrate sides. They’re attacking well with a whole host of underrated players and although it’s their strikers that I’ve praised the most this season, I have to now praise their midfield. Dominiqui has been dominant in central midfield with his interceptions and distribution, which makes it easier for Radetinac and Nicklasson to do what they do best down the flanks. All that combined means that Fejzullahu, Ericsson, and Ekenberg have all the opportunities that they require to score goals, hence Mjallby scoring so many goals. The side are playing with confidence as a result and although their defence is ageing and slow, Mjallby are not a side to underestimate.
Visitors Gefle are just an awful, awful side. They can defend but they have nothing else to their game. They’re one of a handful of Allsvenskan sides that shouldn’t pose Mjallby any problems with their slow defence because Gefle have a slow and predictable attack. Gefle will always threaten from set pieces and they’re well-organised at the back but they’re just a bloody terrible side. They got a result at Djurgarden because Djurgarden under-performed and then gave up as the game drew to a conclusion. Gefle won’t find points like that again on the road this season for my money because they’re not that lucky! Gefle will always work hard but if you score the first goal against them then chances are good that you’ll beat them, which is precisely what I expect to occur today.
For me, taking Mjallby to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10 looks very appealing today.
Verdict: Mjallby Solvesborg to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
AIK Solna vs IFK Norrkoping – away win with +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Ah, now these are the kind of games that I enjoy playing in the Allsvenskan! IFK Norrkoping are above AIK Solna in the table, which is very amusing to me as AIK are a bigger and better side than Norrkoping. Nonetheless, it does go some way in demonstrating that Norrkoping are a capable side, which saves me some time as I don’t have to explain it to you! The games that Norrkoping really love are the ones against the big sides, though. Even their horrible attempts at defending don’t appear as suicidal as normal in their big games, or “cup finals” as I call them! Norrkoping have beaten Malmo 3-2, won 1-2 at IFK Goteborg, and beaten Helsingborg 1-0 already this season. The only big side to get the better of them was Elfsborg with a 2-0 defeat in Boras but that’s really not a bad record, in my view. Ajdarevic, Hasani, and Thorvaldsson are all in good form and they’re more than capable of making it count here. As long as Norrkoping aren’t too hung up on their 6-0 loss against Hacken in their last game thanks to an abject display then they should be more than capable of getting a result here.
The problem AIK have is scoring goals. Given that I expect Norrkoping to score at least once here, that makes it very difficult indeed for AIK to win this game. I mean, consider that they’ve already drawn four out of four Allsvenskan home games this season and you’ll see my point. They were lucky to just draw two of them, to be honest! Now consider that playmaker Danielsson, goalkeeper Turina, midfielder Persson, and defender Milosevic are all absent today and you can see why AIK have problems as they’re all regulars. That leaves the ball squarely in Celso Borges’ court as to how well AIK do here with perhaps the odd bit of input from Mutumba. AIK have a fairly big squad but they’re horribly bereft of attacking power and creativity, hence their problems. They’ve got to pick themselves up from a depressing 2-2 draw at Orebro earlier this week and I’m not sure that they’re mentally capable of doing so. AIK are not good at scoring goals and even Norrkoping’s dodgy defence could be made to look good here if AIK play as I expect them to.
With all of them above in mind, I can only look upon odds of 4/5 on Norrkoping +1 Asian Handicap as a bit of a steal here. Well, with the proviso that they don’t produce another random abject display!
Verdict: IFK Norrkoping to win with +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Team news
Danish Superligaen:
AC Horsens – Hajdarevic, Absalonsen, and Spelmann are absent.
AGF Aarhus – S.Larsen and Povlsen are absent. S.Berg returns. Moldskred may debutise.
Brondby – Rommedahl, Gerht, and Femi are absent.
Nordsjaelland – Jose Sise, Mtiliga, and Bechmann are absent.
Midtylland – Bak Nielsen is absent.
FC Copenhagen – Norstrand is absent. Ottesen returns.
OB Odense – Johansson and Moller Chrstensen return.
Lyngby – Traore is absent.
Silkeborg – No absentees.
SonderjyskE – Jessen and F.Hansen are absent. Troest returns.
Aalborg BK – Emil Petersen, Ahlmann, and Wurtz are absent.
HB Koge – No news.
Finnish Ykkonen:
Jippo Joensuu – Sormunen, Ngeuekam, L.Ikonen, and Koivuranta are absent. Harju is a doubt.
HiFK Helsinki – Suikki and Pyhala are absent.
Greek Super League:
Panathinaikos – Leto, Ioannidis, Kapino, Karnezis, Seitaridis, Vitolo, Katsouranis, Rudolf, and Fourlanos are absent.
AEK Athens – Sialmas is absent. Kontoes returns.
Atromitos – Karagounis is absent. Epstein is a doubt. Skondras returns.
PAOK Salonika – Chalkias, Fotakis, Garcia, Cirillo, and Ivic are absent.
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Szombathelyi Haladas – No absentees.
Disogyori VTK – Rakovic, Dobos, Budvinszky, George, Bogati, Tajti, Gallardo, Seydi, Luque, Tisza, Abduoraman, Takacs, and Sekour are absent.
Zalagerszegi TE – No absnetees.
Paksi SE – Montvai is absent.
Budapest Honved – No absentees.
Debreceni VSC – Novakovic is absent. Ramos and Simac are doubts.
Fehervar – No absentees.
Lombard Papa – No absentees.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Lillestrom – Ramovic, Vaagen Moen, and Midtgarden are absent.
Sogndal – Mecinovic, Lund, Naess, Roed, Rudolfsen, and Flo are absent.
Sandnes Ulf – Homvik and Westlye are absent.
Molde FK – Steensild and Ekpo are absent.
Stabaek – Aase and Hedenstad are absent.
Haugesund – Maeland and Pozniak are absent.
Tromso – Ahamed and Bendiksen are absent. Yndestad is a doubt.
Viking Stavanger – Gyan, Bjordal, Cardozo, and Ingelsten are absent.
Aalesund FK – Leke James, Sellin, and Matland are absent. Carlsen is a doubt.
Brann Bergen – Mohus, Sokolowski, El-Fakiri, and Demir are absent.
Rosenborg BK – Chibuike, Ronning, and Ankersen are absent.
Odd Grenland Skien – Lekven, Andersson, and Jonassen are absent.
Polish Liga 1:
Ruch Radzionkow – No news.
Gornik Polkowice – No news.
Olimpia Grudziadz – No news.
Flota Swinoujscie – Melon and Fryc are absent. Udarevic is a doubt. Kienuzel returns.
Olimpia Elblag – Pacan and Rogaczow are absent.
Dolcan Zabki – Chylaszek is a doubt. Grzelak is absent.
Nieciecza – Trafarski is are absent. Pleva is a doubt.
Kolejarz Stroze – No news.
Sandecja Nowy Sacz – No news.
Bogdanka Leczna – Pielorz and Soldecki are absent.
Piast Gliwice – Trela, Paulauskas, Urban, Cuerda, and Bdzega are absent.
Katowice – Sadowski, Goncerz, and Gierczak are absent. Rakels is a doubt.
Warta Poznan – Bartczak and Sobieraj return.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz – Geworgian is absent. Jankowski and Zawistowski return.
Pogon Szczecin – Noll, Fabianak, Lawa, and Radler are doubts.
Wisla Plock – Sekulski and Petasz are absent.
Polonia Bytom – Good friends with opponents Arka Gdynia.
Arka Gdynia – Surdykowski, Benevente, Tomasik, and Krajanowski are absent. Jarun, Mazurkiewicz, and Kuklis return.
Serbian Super Liga:
Partizan Belgrade – Boss Grant leaves at the end of the season. Manga, Stojkovic are doubts. Scepovic, Eduardo, and Lazevski are absent.
Red Star Belgrade – Players refused to train due to unpaid wages. Coach Prosinecki promises that players will be given a chance to impress here that have not played much this season.
Novi Pazar – Letonica, Pesic, Halbazic, Tutoric, Bulatovic, and Babic are absent.
Jagodina – No absentees.
Vojvodina Novi Sad – Katia is absent.
Radnicki 1923 – Tintor and Kostic are absent.
Javor Ivanjica – Vujadinovic is absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
BK Hacken Goteborg – No news.
Djurgarden – Pedersen and Broberg are absent.
Atvidaberg – No news.
Kalmar FF – No news.
AIK Solna – Turina, Milosevic, Danielsson, and Persson are absent. Karlsson is a doubt.
IFK Norrkoping – Nyman is a doubt.
Mjallby Solvesborg – No news.
Gefle – Oremo is absent.
Orebro – No news.
Syrianska Sodertalje – Touma is absent.