TFT Issue 406!
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Toulon Tournament Preview & Tips
Welcome to 2012’s Toulon Tournament in France, ladies and gentlemen! Debates are always rife as to whether this is an U20, U21, or U23 tournament and to be honest, I’m not 100% sure myself. The French are very hesitant to give out information regarding this tournament and the fact that sides are only allowed in this tournament by invite alone indicates how the French feel about things rather well.
Still, I watch these games because I’m a freak and I feel that there’s money to be made from them, like there has been in previous years. So – who is in the tournament this year? Well, France are the hosts, naturally. Joining them are Morocco, Egypt, Belarus, Netherlands, Japan, Mexico, and Turkey. Games will be held in Nice, Saint-Raphael, Hyeres, Aubagne, Le Lavandou, and La Seine. The French leagues have only just drawn to a conclusion so I don’t expect the pitches to be in good condition, which could damage the more free-flowing passing sides such as Mexico, for example. Let’s wait and see, though – it’s only speculation until it’s confirmed.
One thing to always bear in mind is that these games are played over eighty minutes rather than ninety minutes unless the French have randomly changed the rules, which wouldn’t surprise me.
So – who are the favourites? Well, hosts France are always in it due to their excellent youth program. Netherlands are in the same boat and I expect a lot from both sides. Out of the two, I’d edge toward France as they tend to have a bit more defensive knowhow at this level than the flambuoyant Dutch. Both are packed full of quick and skilful players, however, and should make an interesting watch.
France’s one to watch is AS Monaco attacker Germain, who has been instrumental in Monaco finishing as far up the table as they did in Ligue 2 this season. Indeed, the nucleus of Monaco players (e.g. Mendy, Labor, Pintaux etc.) makes this France side already strong on the cohesion front, especially as most of their players in the squad are midfielders. Defender Rose has done alright at Laval but I’m most looking forward to seeing Sidibe from Troyes, who has been instrumental in their promotion to Ligue 1 this season. Aside from Sidibe, this defence looks a bit inexperienced and may be susceptible in this tournament. France’s other main issue would be that only de Preville from Istres has played regularly up front this season and he’s not been amazing. France’s midfield will have to do a big job in this tournament but they almost always do so they’re still favourites to me.
Netherlands have brought an excellent squad with them that is packed with both experience and youth. There’s plenty of flair in there although question marks over their defence and goalkeeper remain as constant as ever. It’s pleasing to see ten Voorde in the squad as he’s had a good campaign with impressive RKC Waalwijk and it’s also good to see VVV midfielder Berghuis, who has been instrumental in their side this season. You all know Barazite from Monaco, I am sure – the former Arsenal and Austria Vienna attacker – and the likes of Foor and Kieftenbeld have played a good number of Eredivisie games this season. It’s good to see some Feyenoord players in the squad as Feyenoord have a strong academy when it comes to producing talented players. There’s plenty of experienced and technically gifted players in this squad, not to mention leaders, so I think it’s fair to expect a good showing from the Dutch. I’m a shade concerned at the absence of a proper striker, a real poacher – they need that sometimes. It’ll be interesting to see how this Dutch side does because on paper, they’re one of the strongest in the tournament.
Dark horses? I like two sides more than most – Belarus and Mexico.
I watched a lot of Mexico’s games at the last tournament and those boys are pure gold when it comes to passing the ball around. Only Chile could compete with them on that front and they were frankly a pleasure to watch. They do struggle to convert their chances if against a reliable defence, which doesn’t happen too often at these tournaments, and they struggle to keep sides out at the other end. They’re a battling bunch but aren’t keen on physical exchanges with temperament often capable of getting the better of them. Mexico have been quite clever by bringing along Guadalajara defender Ponce, who is only just eligible to play in this tournament at 23 years of age. He’s been a regular in their defence this season and although they’ve had a downtrend of form toward the end of the season, they’ve predominantly been good and it’s due to their defence that they’ve done well. Indeed, Mexico have also slipped Vidrio in under the radar, who is also 23 but plies his trade with Pachuca. This is a rather experienced core to the Mexican defence, which could prove integral at a tournament where youth is the focal point and thus naivety is never away. Even Araujo from Cruz Azul is in there and they’ve all been regulars in the Primera Division this season. I’m a bit surprised at the exclusion of striker Torres but they’ve substituted him for another “old” player – Calderon from Toluca, who has been a regular this season. Mexico have a very experienced and able squad for this tournament and they also possess one of the best players in it, for my money – Guadalajara attacker Fabian. This guy can win a game on his own either with skill, long range shots, or passing. I fancy this guy to earn a big move to Europe in the near future so let’s see what the Toulon Tournament holds for him.
Belarus have brought half of the squad to this tournament that they took to Denmark in 2011 for the UEFA European U21 Championships and they finished third in that tournament, just to give you an idea of how strong that squad was. The focal part of the side that they’ve brought with them is their excellent defence with Politevich and Veretilo from Dinamo Minsk at the heart of it with BATE Borisov goalkeeper Gutor behind them. Battleaxe Perepechko and Mikhail Sivakov will sit in front of the back four and they’re bloody good at it, too. You’ve got Dragun, who can win any game for Belarus, and Baga wreaking havoc in midfield and the experience of Skavysh and Voronkov up front. Khvashschinskiy’s pace is a threat and I very much like the general shape and organisation of Belarus’ squad. They’ll be very hard to beat although I have my reservations about them being able to actually score goals, though. Give them goals at your peril, though – if they take a lead then they’re a nightmare to take it off, especially with a lot of emerging players and not many experienced heads.
And as for the rest, we have some maybes and some sides that are likely to be torn to shreds.
I don’t expect much from Morocco in this tournament, to be honest. Much like with their first team, there are some talented players but too few of them. They have little composure, little experience, a suceptible defence, and little composure. I’m open to being proven wrong but I feel that they’ll do well to win any of their games in this tournament.
Egypt are well-organised but in a rather contradicting manner, they’re also able to have players sent off for nothing. It’s like a switch goes in the brain of their players and they abandon the European shape that has served them so well over the past few years at every level and just go gung-ho, which really doesn’t suit them. Much like Morocco, Egypt do have some technically gifted players. Also like Morocco, they’re short of goalscorers. Egypt are better in defence than Morocco are and do have the capacity to surprise sides. I’m not sure we’ll see much of them this time around, though, especially following the horrible events in Egypt earlier this year.
Turkey are an interesting one. At every level, they produce skilled and technically-gifted players. They’ve brought some experience at the back in Gaziantepspor defender Demir and also in striker Kose. Kose may have a point to prove as he’s been something of a regular for Istanbul BB this season but never really fulfilled his destiny as he came through the Bayer 04 Leverkusen ranks. He’s always struck me as something of a lazy player. Talented, but lazy. The one to keep an eye on for Turkey is Besiktas JK midfielder Uysal, who has been a regular in the Super Lig this season. Turkey are capable of causing upsets in this tournament and they have the quality to beat sides convincingly. My problem is that they’re inconsistent and a little lazy, not to mention being especially inconsistent in front of goal. It depends which Turkey shows up although I can’t see them doing much in a tournament like this without consistency.
Last but not least we have Japan, who featured in the last Toulon Tournament. They were one of the worst sides in it, results-wise, but I felt a bit sorry for the Japanese side as they really progressed rapidly as the tournament continued. In their final game, they were beaten 3-0 by Colombia – a good Colombia side, I should point out – whilst holding their own well in the game. They offer very little threat in front of goal but work extremely hard, moreso than most side. They need more composure, especially at the back, and they’ll have to take their chances to have any chance here as they’re not especially good. This tournament has arrived a bit too soon for Japan with their football continually improving and although I expect more from them this time than we saw in the last tournament, I still don’t see them doing much. Big things are expected of Bayern attacker Usami and Stuttgart full-back Sakai but as I said earlier, this tournament has come a bit too soon to expect to see a side here capable of upsetting the odds. I’m open to being proven wrong and that’s what this tournament tends to be about, to be fair, but I just don’t see it.
As far as today’s games go, the odds have not been released at the time of writing the preview, which is depressing. Bet365 assure me that they’ll be available at the time that you’re reading this preview but that’s not much sodding use to me, is it? I’ll try to give you some ideas as to where my mind was going with the games, though. For Turkey vs Japan, I was going to avoid any kind of heavy bet and perhaps tentatively go under 2.5 goals between a Turkey side that is likely only to be motivated for the bigger opponents and a Japan side keen to not be beaten easily following their last showing. If Turkey turn it on, they could win this 1-0 or 2-0. If they produce their usual half-assed display then Japan could really spring a surprise and nick this one 0-1. It’s one for the in-play market, I feel. I’d want 10/11 to be interested in the unders market, incidentally.
Egypt vs Netherlands should boast plenty of goals although the majority of them at one end. With the proviso that the Dutch take their chances then I fancy them to do plenty of damage here, especially with the Eredivisie having only ended in the past few weeks. The -1 Asian Handicap would interest me a lot at 4/5 and overs would interest me at 3/4 as the Dutch are capable of going mad but also conceding against anyone. No European Handicaps here, guys – too early in the tournament!
Featured game
IFK Norrkoping vs Atvidaberg – over 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Moving onto today’s games, my featured game is the Allsvenskan derby between Norrkoping and Atvidaberg.
You’re a far better man than I am if you can pick a winner between these two sides as it really does depend which one of them shows up. I would edge toward Norrkoping as they possess better players but there’s really not very much in it. Ajdarevic is capable of winning any game for Norrkoping but their defence looks so bad right now that it’s terrifying. I knew it was bad but Jesus – to ship five goals again AIK Solna takes a special degree of shitness that I’ve never come across with Norrkoping before. I doubt we’ll see AIK bag five goals over their next five games, just to reiterate my point. With Norrkoping, it’s more often than not about motivation – if they want it enough, they’ll score goals and cause problems. It’s a derby so I expect them to do that there and they should really win it.
Atvidaberg have been the champions of getting results against the odds recently, though, and I won’t rule them out from getting something here. They struck three past Kalmar in their last game, beat Syrianska 1-0 before that, and drew 1-1 with Djurgarden prior to that, all of which are good results. Say what you like about Atvidaberg but they’re always a dangerous side and you’ll almost never see a 0-0 with this side around. They concede goals way too easily but they score them too. Hell, only Elfsborg and Hacken have scored more than they have this season. That’s right – newly-promoted Atvidaberg have scored more goals than mighty Malmo, who have spent plenty of money on their lethal attack. Atvidaberg are a very strange side and are capable of winning most games and losing a lot of games. I enjoy their enthusiasm and belief in their attacking abilities, though, and feel that they’ve got a chance to cause an upset here.
What interests me most is to take over 2.5 goals here, though. I cannot see either of these two sides failing to score and I don’t see either of them restricting the other to a single goal. I expect plenty of goals here so even odds of 3/4 appeal to me. Most bookies have slashed their odds but Pinnacle are holding out at longer odds, which suits me just fine.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Additional games
Gefle vs Orebro – both sides to score at 10/11.
What a colossal game this is! We’re only part-way through the season but the Allsvenskan stops for a month after today for the European Championships. So why is this a big game? Well, imagine you’re Orebro – the last thing you want to do is to go into that break at least five points adrift of safety, isn’t it? And if you’re Gefle, a win keeps hopes alive as they’d be a point behind Kalmar. To me, that makes this a very big game.
Both sides use artificial turf so I don’t see any advantage for either side today. Gefle are twice as good as Orebro in defence but Orebro are twice as good as Gefle in attack. Gefle have done well lately, going unbeaten in three games. They’ve finally found a side that they can score against and I expect them to, given the importance of the game and Orebro’s inability to keep a clean sheet. That said, Orebro have plenty of firepower and they really need to make it count. Their league placing is unfair to them from a quality perspective but is very much an earned one due to their shambolic attempts at defending. That makes this a very interesting game indeed.
Pick a winner if you dare but I’m taking both sides to score at 10/11.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 10/11.
Helsingborg vs Djurgarden – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
I think Karlssen’s Helsingborg need a bit of a reality check as to how long the Allsvenskan lasts. We’re already over a third of the way through this competition and Helsingborg still aren’t playing well! They’re nervous at the back, sit too deep when they have the lead, and struggle immensely to actually get the lead. I can understand their defensive issues as most of their back four have been absent, which is the case again today with Edman, Andersson, and Atta all missing out here. Their attack has no excuses, though – they’re good enough to make things happen but it’s almost like they’re afraid to do something that will force Helsingborg away from their organised structure. Sundin is back to help out Finnbogason up front and Helsingborg have scored goals lately, albeit against somewhat shaky defences. Happily, they’ve got a very shaky defence confronting them today and thus Helsingborg should really score at least once here.
Now comes the tricky part, though. En mass, Djurgarden have played better football than Helsingborg this season, for my money, which makes the odds on the home win dubious to say the least. I was nervous about Djurgarden before their game with Hacken because they were awful and uninspired against Gefle. Djurgarden completely proved me wrong, however, frankly outplaying Hacken and deserving three points. Had they decided to actually stop Makondele running the entire length of their half in their game against Hacken then they would probably have won it as Hacken weren’t doing enough. Djurgarden are a very determined side and boast plenty of firepower. Keene, Hamalainen, and Sjolund can all upset opponents on counter-attacks and that’s what I expect here. Clean sheets don’t exist in Djurgarden’s world because they just don’t get them. The news that defender Pedersen is likely to be out for the season makes them even more vulnerable and it’s likely that they’ll fish around for a bargain in the Summer transfer window to help them out. Another Finn, perhaps? Maybe Tanska from TPS Turku? We’ll see. Either way, this side attacks with great spirit and belief so I’ll be surprised if Helsingborg get as easy a ride as the bookies suspect that they will today.
Therefore, I very much like the idea of this game going over 2.5 goals. Helsingborg need some momentum rapidly but are struggling to get it. Djurgarden can upset any side in the Allsvenskan when it suits them, which is most of the time. Both sides miss key defenders and both score goals. I like the idea of taking both sides to score at 5/6 but just in case Helsingborg randomly turn it on, I’m going to take over 2.5 goals instead at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Team news
Bulgarian A PFG:
Montana – Dulgerov is absent.
Chernomorets Burgas – Asis is absent. Boss Dimitrov is also absent.
Cherno More Varna – Manolov and Palominho are absent.
Slavia Sofia – No absentees.
Levski Sofia – Ivanov, Dimov, Miliev, and Mulder are absent.
Svetkavitsa – No absentees.
Botev Vratsa – Tsvetkovski is absent.
Vidma-Rakovski – No absentees.
Minior Pernik – Hristov is absent.
Beroe – Elias, Abushev, Livramento, and Caiado are absent.
Litex Lovech – No absentees.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Bengelloun is absent.
Lokomotiv Sofia – No news.
Kaliakra – No news.
Ludogorets – No absentees.
CSKA Sofia – Karachanakov is absent.
Danish Superligaen:
Nordsjaelland – Mtliga and Bechmann return.
AC Horsens – Spelmann, Hajdarevic, and Absalonsen are absent.
FC Copenhagen – Ottesen, Kristensen, Ragnarsson are absent.
Silkeborg – No absentees.
AGF Aarhus – Graulund, Haland, Johansson, and S.Larsen are absent. Moldskred may debutise.
Midtylland – Bak Nielsen returns.
HB Koge – S.Hansen, Fabinho, Bo Storm, and Sorensen are absent.
OB Odense – No absentees.
Lyngby – Frederik Helstrup, Manich Bech, and Fernandes are absent. Traore returns.
Brondby – Rommedahl and Krohn-Deli are absent.
SonderjyskE – Storbaek is absent. H.Hansen returns.
Aalborg BK – Thomsen and L.Andersen are absent.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Brann Bergen – Sokolowski, El-Fakiri, Demir, Austin, and Leicejewski are absent.
Fredrikstad – Valencia, Holm, Ramberg, and Dure are absent.
Sogndal – Mecinovic, Roed, Rudolfsen, Flo, Patronen, Badji, and Hopen are absent.
Sandnes Ulf – Westlye and Skolsvik are absent.
Stromsgodset – Hamoud, Ovenstad, Hanssen, Keita, and Diomande are absent.
Odd Grenland Skien – Andersson and Samuelsen are absent.
Viking Stavanger – Gyan, Bjorndal, Ornskov, and Anier are absent.
Stabaek – No news.
Valerenga Oslo – Muri, Oussou, Solli, Kone, and Larsen are absent.
Rosenborg BK – Dockal and Ronning are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
IFK Norrkoping – No news.
Atvidaberg – No news.
Syrianska Sodertalje – Touma returns.
Mjallby Solvesborg – Ivanovski is absent.
Helsingborg – Atta, Edman, and C.Andersson are absent. Krafth, Sundin, and Lindstrom return.
Djurgarden – Pedersen and Bromberg are absent.