TFT Issue 416!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Be wary of the land mines that lurk today. South America’s got a few games that are a lot tighter than they look and never back away wins in Africa! Below are a few that interest me but as much as I like them, I don’t feel that any are worthy of heavy stakes.
Featured game
Portugal vs Turkey – over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Today’s featured game is the International Friendly between Portugal and Turkey.
The locals of Lisbon will be desperate to see Portugal win here after their embarrassing 0-0 draw with a disjointed Republic of Macedonia side. Portugal are a side that makes sense to me, however, and thus I think that they’ll win this game today.
Macedonia are a side that would take great pride in playing for a 0-0 with Portugal. They know that it works – if applied correctly with a bit of luck combined – because Portugal don’t have good strikers. They’ve got an outstanding midfield, yes, but they’ve not had a good striker for some time. Their midfield can win them games because of their quality, particularly Ronaldo, and they will take advantage of sides that don’t defend properly. Put them up against a side that “parks the bus”, however, and they’ll struggle.
Can Turkey do that today? In a word – no. Turkey are nowhere near good enough defensively to keep anyone out. The only reason Bulgaria didn’t score against them a few days ago was because Bulgaria were truly awful. A fairly predictable Finland side put three past Turkey prior to that so Portugal can score goals here. It’s not in Turkey’s nature to just defend, either, not least because they’re not good at it but because they excel in attack.
Burak Yilmiz is still in awesome form and the Portuguese defence has been in better shape than it currently is. It’s still fairly solid but there are ways through it and Turkey are good enough to exploit it. Turkey are much more motivated for games against bigger sides than they are against smaller sides, though, and it tends to show. Therefore, I do think Turkey will do enough here to at least score.
Realistically speaking, though, I have to expect Portugal to win the game. This is one side that even Portugal shouldn’t struggle to score against and if they turn it on then they could break 2.5 goals by themselves. Either way, I like the odds of 10/11 on there being over 2.5 goals here with the above in mind.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Additional games
Poland vs Andorra – under 3.5 goals at 7/5.
This tip follows along the lines of the Azerbaijan vs Andorra tip earlier this week. The fact is that Andorra simply aren’t that bad a team any more. It takes a bit of bad defending to allow them to score but this side is physically strong, well-organised, and hard to break through. This is not an easy game for Poland!
I have little doubts over Poland actually winning the game, to be honest. They’ve got enough quality in their ranks to do so. What I question is their ability to break sides down, however. They’re simply not very good at it as they don’t possess any good playmakers. Good strikers and good wingers – yes. Good players to knock the ball around? No. Poland are a dangerous side on counter-attacks but when they’re heavy favourites and have to break through sides, they’re just not very efficient with it.
Barring an early Polish goal or a horribly below-par display from Andorra, I don’t see this game containing many goals. Again, Poland should win this game and you may get good odds in-play but for me, the value has to be in taking under 3.5 goals at 7/5.
Verdict: Under 3.5 goals at 7/5.
Croatia U21 vs Switzerland U21 – away win with draw no bet at 4/5.
This tip largely depends on the side that the Swiss have taken to Croatia, which I frustratingly cannot find anywhere. I’m sure it’ll appear somewhere during the day and I’d be grateful if someone found it because I can then give you my thoughts.
I watched the Swiss entertain the Croatians a while back and despite missing some six or seven first-team players, the Swiss outfit absolutely battered Croatia. People talk of a golden era for Spain – and they’re right – but we’re not far away from a golden era for Switzerland too. They’ve got a strong first-team and thus a strong U21 to boot as players are allowed to develop there nowadays.
Now, the Croatians don’t have a good side this time around. They’ve got a few decent players but nothing more than that. They can pass the ball around nicely but lack a finisher, a leader, and a composed defence. They’ll work hard here, which is why it’s important to take it with draw no bet, but I don’t expect them to beat a frankly superior Swiss side.
Switzerland used a few youngsters in their squad against Romania and Germany in recent friendlies with the likes of Rodriguez and Shaqiri both being called up, for example. I don’t know if those players have been released for this game or not – there are a few others besides. Switzerland still have a good U21 side but I prefer the experienced players and the stars of the team to be available for what is a tricky away game, if only for the venue!
Therefore, I would wait for someone to post the squad or line-up and I’ll give my verdict. If it’s the squad I hope that it is then 4/5 with draw no bet on the away win is just a pure bargain as there’s a world of difference between these two sides nowadays.
Verdict: Switzerland U21 to win with draw no bet at 4/5.