TFT Issue 419!
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Featured game
Faroe Islands U21 vs Serbia U21- under 3.5 goals at evens.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifier in Torshavn between Faroe Islands and Serbia.
Faroe Islands U21 are not an easy side to beat any more, just like their national team. They’re a long way from footballing giants, obviously, but this nation is making steady progress year after year and it’d be foolish to ignore that. Faroe Islands U21 entertained another Balkan nation a few days ago when Republic of Macedonia came calling. Faroe Islands restricted their chances massively and almost won the game. Admittedly the circumstances that led to the Faroese goal were hilariously unfortunate with goalkeeper Gacevski striking an air shot from a back pass and thus allowing Ristevski’s back pass to roll into the goal. Faroe Islands U21 do have problems putting the ball in the net and that was more than evident with Hallur Hansson missing a one-on-one as the game drew to a conclusion. Still, Republic of Macedonia claimed a draw due to a period of sustained pressure and playing that way was really how they should have done it from the start as they’d have won the game then, in my view. Faroe Islands U21 aren’t impossible to beat but they’re hard to beat, basically.
Republic of Macedonia’s neighbours Serbia are unlikely to make the same mistakes here, aren’t they? I mean, Serbia are easily the best U21 side in the group for my money. However, we have to consider how many of their regulars are heading out to Torshavn for this game and the answer to that is “not many”. Sinisa Mijailjovic is giving a lot of them a shot in the national team so the likes of Maksimovic, Mladenovic, Ignjovski, Duricic, Lazovic, Mijailovic, and Markovic are not in the Faroe Islands for this game! They’re in Scandinavia, ironically, but they’re way over in Solna with the senior team. They’ve still got Rad Belgrade forward Kojic, Sampdoria wide man Krsticic, NAC Breda defender Gudelj, and Dynamo Dresden defender Savic so there’s experience and capability in this team. However, they’re far, far from full-strength and that makes this a much harder game than normal for Serbia U21, especially as goalscoring is not really their forté. Add to the mix that this game is played on rock-solid artificial turf in nightmarish conditions and you have the recipe for a game that you shouldn’t be betting on from a 1×2 perspective, especially when you consider that the 5-1 scoreline in the reversal in this fixture was flattering to say the least.
Call it superstition or what you will be some grounds bring out the best in sides and Gundadalsvegur brings out the best in Faroese football. EB/Streymur haven’t been beaten here for some years now in European football and HB Torshavn recorded their 1-0 win against Salzburg here too. Faroe Islands U21 haven’t lost here for some time either and it may sound daft but I think that gives them additional confidence. All in all, taking under 3.5 goals at evens looks an absolute bargain to me here. I considered giving Faroe Islands an Asian Handicap here but chickened out on the basis that Serbia really do need to win this game. However, taking under 3.5 goals at evens looks too good to be true here.
Verdict: Under 3.5 goals at evens.
Additional games
Armenia vs Kazakhstan – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
You all know that I love backing Armenia because they’re capable of surprising any side with their lovely attacking football. However, they’re way too short here, even for me. I love to back them because they’re a nightmare to handle but I wouldn’t touch them here as their defence just loves to commit footballing suicide at random intervals. I mean, for my money, Armenia were rarely out of control in their game at Greece lately but they still gave away two penalties (which were both saved by Berezovskiy, amusingly enough) in unnecessary situations. I felt sorry for Armenia in one of them as one was definitely not a penalty but one absolutely was and it was just poor positioning and a clumsy challenge. Armenia are not difficult to break through in defence; a bit of pace causes them no end of problems. Still, their attack is frighteningly good and they could have and should have scored at least twice against Greece. Greece did well in defence, to be fair to them – that’s their speciality. Kazakhstan’s speciality is not defending, however, and thus Armenia should be scoring at least two goals here.
Kazakhstan do excel in attacking, however. They’re a rather underrated side from that perspective. Much like some of their neighbours in the general area, Kazakhstan has been exposed to Brazilian influence and subsequently they do play an attractive style of football with some good players to boot. Kazakhstan are using this game as a trial of sorts with regulars such as Karpovich, Skorykh, Smakov, and Irismetov outside the squad. Arguably the best Kazakh striker around is in the squad though – Zhetsyu’s Ostapenko – and that’s encouraging. Khizhnichenko and Greuther Furth’s Shmidtgal are threats, though, as is Kukeev. Kazakhstan drubbed minnors Kyrgyzstan 5-2 with this squad and although their opponents were far from a good side, you can see the general result of Kazakhstan chopping and changing their players.
With the above in mind, I find it very hard to understand odds of 11/10 on this game going over 2.5 goals. We have two attacking sides on paper with little defensive ability and thus we should see plenty of goals. Kazakhstan are notorious for not having the fitness that most other nations possess, incidentally – they start to get very, very tired around the 70 minute mark. With that in mind, taking over 2.5 goals looks a steal at 11/10 although I must confess that taking Armenia to score over 1.5 goals appeals to me too. Alas, though – there are no odds at the time of writing this preview! I’m more than happy to take over 2.5 goals at 11/10 though.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Turkey vs Ukraine – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
On paper, Turkey’s recent results have been outstanding. It’s got people wondering why they’re not in the European Championships themselves this year and the answer is because they’re horribly inconsistent. They’ve encountered an awful Bulgaria side and a vastly overrated Portugal side recently and beaten both of them, to their credit. I’d be lying if I said that they were convincing in either game, though – they just did what they had to. I’m impressed at how clinical they’ve seemingly become, and not just with Burak Yilmaz either. They look confident and they’re taking their chances so I’ll give them their due respect in Austria today.
Ukraine themselves have been rather similar to their Black Sea rivals. They’re deonstrating their ability to concede goals from nowhere for no reason in magnificent fashion, shipping four goals on a recent trip to Austria. Ukraine were fortunate that Estonia opted not to field their first-team against them or their “easy” home win may have been more embarrassing than anything else. Ukraine took their chances well in that game but they didn’t do a lot to Estonia, you know? They’re a clinical side but they lack unity, which is possibly because they change managers every few months – that can’t help! Still, any side with Milevskiy, Shevchenko, Voronin, Yarmolenko, Rotan, and Aliev will have goals and that’s proven to be the case thus far.
Pick a winner here? Don’t be daft. Absolutely anything could happen here and I would not bat an eyelid – oh, and that includes at least one of the nations invading the other prior to the end of the game! The one thing I’m reasonably confident that we’ll see today is goals, however. Taking over 2.5 goals at 11/10 appeals to me a lot here with both sides in clinical form and with a bit of local rivalry to boot.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
France vs Estonia – Ribery to score at any time at evens.
Try as I might, I just couldn’t find any value in this game. I think the bookies have approached it in the correct fashion with France likely to tear Estonia apart but they keep everyone guessing as to which France will show up so it’s not worthwhile betting on it. Estonia have been frustrating in the sense that they’re conceding goals too easily but they’re dangerous going forward so I did toy with taking both sides to score here.
However, I then stumbled across odds of evens on Ribery scoring at any time and that did it for me. Without Piiroja and Stepanov in the centre of defence, who are easily the two most capped and experience centre-backs that Estonia possess, it’s hard to envision them keeping a clean sheet against anyone. Estonia have looked a bit unsure from a positional perspective when defending, particularly in the full-back areas, hence my interest in Ribery scoring in this game. I can see him cutting inside a number of times and blasting a piledriver into the net and with Estonia not only missing key defenders but also being very tired from the Baltic Cup, I think taking Ribery to score at any time represents value at evens.
Incidentally, I wouldn’t go crazy with handicaps on France here, tempting though it might be. You really don’t know which France will show up, they won’t want players getting injured here, Estonia are an underrated attacking side (and they have brought almost a full compliment in attack to France for this game, including the instrumental midfielders Vassiljev and Dmitrijev), and you don’t know precisely what squad Estonia will field here. There are too many variants for that type of bet so I’d refrain from touching the 1×2 market unless you’re in-playing it. Be mindful of Ojamaa, incidentally – this guy has been on-fire lately and was just as good whilst playing on loan with Motherwell this season in the Scottish Premier League. Perhaps his days of glistening promise are not behind him after all, eh?
N.B. After this game, Estonia will be the only nation in Europe to have faced every other nation in Europe in football!
Verdict: Ribery to score at any time at evens.
Estonia U21 vs Georgia U21 – under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
I can’t help but feel that we’re in for a mind-numbingly boring game of football between these two sides. This is a long way from the best crop of U21 players that Estonia have ever produced and Georgia is about the same as ever. Both sides are strong in defence and build from the back. All of Estonia’s home games have gone under 2.5 goals for that reason, too. They defended well against Spain in their last game and only lost by a credible 0-1 scoreline. Estonia just don’t have the firepower to concern me here, though. They may well score here but I don’t see them breaking through a resolute Georgian defence more than once unless their visitors capitulate. I think Georgia have an even less chance of scoring on this pitch with their inability to find the net on a consistent basis but they may well take a clean sheet if they play their usual style.
For me, this game has under 2.5 goals all over it and is well worth the odds of 5/6 that have been bizarrely slapped against it.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Andorra U21 vs Czech Republic U21 – half with most goals = 2nd half at 10/11.
This bet is all about one factor; stamina. Andorra U21 are a resolute side and they are hard to break down but once you break through them once, it can happen again and again. They lack the experience and stamina that their senior team possesses, hence them losing so many games.
In the first-half of games, Andorra haven’t scored in this group but have conceded nine times, eight of which were in away games. That means Andorra have shipped just one goal in the first-half in their last three home games, which I think demonstrates my point quite well. The second-half is where it goes downhill for the Andorrans, going on to lose the two home games that they were drawing at half-time with their record slipping to thirteen goals conceded in the second-half of games overall. Indeed, their record slides from shipping one goal in the first-half of their home games to conceding six goals in the second-half of their home games as their stamina lessens. The best example would be their 0-5 defeat against Montenegro U21, which was 0-0 at half-time with all of the goals coming in the second-half. The Czechs are the best side in this group and they’re more than capable of making it count here. They were incisive enough to beat Montenegro lately, which would have been a win to nil had goalkeeper Marek Stech not decided to stupidly come out for a free-kick and subsequently be beaten by Kajevic as the ball sailed right over him into the goal. The Czechs are good enough to dominate this game but I find them a shade short from a creative perspective and think it may take them some time to break through the Andorran ranks. With that in mind, taking there to be more goals in the second-half rather than the first-half looks a bit of a steal at 10/11.
Verdict: Half with the most goals = 2nd half at 10/11.
Austria U21 vs Luxembourg U21 – away win with +3 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
I’m actually a big advocate of the Austrian U21 side, as I am with their neighbours – the Swiss U21 side. I think both sides have demonstrated superb potential in the past couple of years and thus it’s no surprise that the senior team of both nations have looked good in the last twelve months.
However, the curren Austria U21 has one fatal flaw; they don’t score goals. The crop before them was very good at putting the ball in the net but this batch just can’t do it. They dominate games easily, play some attractive football, and fail to score goals. That’s the Austria U21 way right now and I suspect that we’ll see more of the same today. They’ve failed to score in their previous two home games against Netherlands and Bulgaria respectively despite dominating the Dutch and giving the Bulgarians a good game, which just isn’t good enough, really. They needed a last-minute goal to beat Luxembourg 1-4 in the reversal of this fixture, which would have meant that this tip would have won. To make things even more intriguing, the Austrian defence isn’t the most secure aspect of their team and Luxembourg could well score here. You really do have to expect Austria to win the game but are they worth those odds? Not unless they suddenly start scoring goals, no. For me, the +3 Asian Handicap for battling visitors Luxembourg is well worth a punt at 11/10.
Verdict: Luxembourg U21 to win with +3 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Netherlands U21 vs Bulgaria U21 – away win with +2 Asian Handicap at evens.
It’s not often that you can look at a Dutch youth side and say “That’s pretty average” but for this one, I think we can. I’ve watched them innumerate times in the group stages this year and they’ve not impressed me once. Scotland have had them in their pockets and both Austria and Bulgaria have outplayed them. They’ve got some players capable of winning them any game in Fer, Wijndalum, and Clasie. However, there isn’t a good striker in this squad and their defence is as vulnerable as ever, especially with Blind at the back! I’m just not blown away by this Dutch side any more and the fact that they’ve only outplayed Luxembourg in this group in their current campaign speaks volumes. Bulgaria have a good U21 side right now – not great, but it’s certainly pretty good. They’ve started scoring goals, which is pleasing as goalscoring hasn’t been a Bulgarian pasttime for some years! They outplayed the Dutch at home and were unlucky to lose and I think that they’ll have similar joy here. I’m going to be very, very surprised if this tip loses, to be honest. A “push” is possible but Netherlands just aren’t good enough to break it right now without a scintillating display. For me, there’s terrific value on giving Bulgaria a +2 Asian Handicap at evens today, even with the absence of captain Tsvetkov.
Verdict: Bulgaria U21 to win with +2 Asian Handicap at evens.
Iceland U21 vs Azerbaijan U21 – away win with +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
I’d love to know why Iceland are so short for this game because it just doesn’t make sense. All of the players that made them great have now joined the senior team or have entered international wilderness. The batch that remains for Iceland U21 is as depressingly average as ever and their inability to score goals that demonstrates that perfectly. Iceland have only scored in one game in the current campaign and lost the reversal of this fixture 1-0. Don’t get me wrong here – the Azeri side are far from world-beaters. They’ve got a lot to learn themselves but they at least carry an attacking threat and thus I really cannot fathom the odds on Iceland winning this game. There is very little between these two sides and the probability of a low-scoring draw occurring here is quite high, in my view. Either way, I can only see value on giving Azerbaijan U21 +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5 because it’s going to take a strong Icelandic display for it to lose.
Verdict: Azerbaijan U21 to win with +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Team news
International Friendly:
Estonia – Lindpere, Piiroja, Stepanov, and Zenjov are absent.
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifier:
Bulgaria U21 – Drenovichki, Tsvetkov, Kostov, and Karachanakov are absent. A.Tonev and P.Iliev return.