TFT Issue 421!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Poland vs Greece – lay Poland at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the opening game of the European Championships between hosts Poland and experienced opponents Greece.
Poland’s odds keep dropping for this game and I don’t really know why. There are no absentees in the Greek camp that I am aware of and Poland aren’t good enough to warrant such short odds against a strong defensive side like Greece. Poland have some cracking players in their side as I said in my preview of the tournament. I mean, Lewandowski is a gifted poacher, Blaszczykowski is lightning-quick, and Polanski is just a warrior in the middle of the park. However, it takes certain occasions for Poland to shine and it’s usually either against big sides or against awful sides. Aside from that, you tend to see Poland struggle to create opportunities and you also tend to see them buckle under pressure. I doubt that they’ve ever been under more pressure than they are now as hosts of a big tournament and competing in the opening game. Their fans are very expectant and as good as Poland can be, I just don’t feel that they have what it takes to beat such a stubborn and well-organised opponent.
This is quite possibly the best game that Greece could have wished for in this tournament. Nobody expects them to do anything because they’re facing the hosts and because they don’t have so many (if any) household names nowadays. However, Greece simply love to be underdogs because their whole tactical approach is centred around them being attacked. They’re a dangerous counter-attacking side and Poland are going to have to attack them here, which gives Greece space to operate. They’re an extremely strong and resilient defensive unit with a well-organised back four that aren’t afraid to commit in challenges. It takes good attacking to penetrate this defence and even then it has to be done with extreme caution as Greece can launch counters with Karagounis or Ninis pinging the ball around at will. Greece are a big and physically strong side so they’ll undoubtedly threaten from set pieces. They lack in creativity but as they’re not the ones breaking Poland down here, that shouldn’t be as evident as it normally is. I have my reservations over Greece’s goalkeeper flapping at crosses when he should be more assured and also regarding their lack of pace in central midfield. However, with the greatest of respect to Poland, I’ll pay more attention to Greece’s flaws when they take on a side that is good enough to exploit them expertly.
The only way I can see Greece losing this game is if they concede the first goal. They hate coming from behind because they have to attack and that shatters their whole gameplan, usually having disastrous results. However, they’re experienced enough and able enough to keep Poland out from start to finish and I think that they’ll do it too. I actually fancy a cheeky bet on Greece winning the game or an even cheekier bet on Greece winning to nil but I’ll refrain from those bets until the competition is properly underway. After all, you never know what nerves will do in big games so I’ll stick to what should be more realistic and likely in laying Poland as Greece are a tough nut to crack, especially when they’re underdogs.
Verdict: Lay Poland at 9/10. Why not bet on this game now at William Hill?
Additional games
Russia vs Czech Republic – draw at half-time at evens.
For all the wrong reasons, this should be a fascinating game of football. For starters, taking under 2.5 goals has dropped below 1/2, which is amusing in itself. I don’t think an unders bet is ever worth taking at such ridiculously short odds. After all, only a couple of bad refereeing decisions can jeopardise the whole bet.
Still, I can’t argue with the sentiments behind it, really. Rosicky and Plasil are the only ones for the Czechs that make anything happen and the Russians are more than capable of keeping them at bay with their well-organised and physically strong side. With Milan Baros a big doubt for this game, the Czechs have even less chance of scoring here than they initially had. Realistically, you’d have to expect the Czechs to start with young Necid as he plays in Russia with CSKA Moscow and thus knows the majority of the defenders that he’s up against pretty damn well. Still, as good as his potential is, I’m not sure he’s ready to deliver on this stage so again, you have to favour the experienced and defensively able Russian side.
Will Russia beat the Czechs, though? They’ve got a better side than them for the first time in ages and the Czechs look weak. However, I tend to find that Russia are weak as favourites and that their ability to break sides down is limited at best. They’ve got lots of pace on the flanks, particularly with their overlapping full-backs in Anyukov and Zhirkov. They need them, too – their big strikers won’t be a threat at all otherwise. Well, barring set pieces, of course. Russia’s main threat is Arshavin, who needs no introduction. Aside from him, Russia are largely predictable and easy to stop from playing so what should we expect here?
We basically have two very similar sides with similar strengths and weaknesses. One is marginally better than the other but it’s ultimately going to come down to whose playmaker is most effective and which striker is the most clinical. I see very little in this game, to be honest. However, one thing is for sure here – neither side will be hasty with their tactical approach here. After all, this is the second of the two Group A games today and if there’s been a winner in the game between Poland and Greece then either side losing here is immediately on the back foot. To me, that will make both sides even more cautious than they usually are and with such limited attacks at their disposal, I find it hard to envision a good game emerging here.
However, that does lead me into what is potentially a good value bet here, which is taking the game to be a draw at half-time at evens. Neither side is adventurous and neither side wants to make a mess of this in the first-half of their opening game. I think they’ll both start the game in very cagey fashion and that will lead to few chances and hopefully few or no goals at all. In the second-half, someone is going to have to go for it and Russia will probably nick it but I see no value there. However, taking it to be a draw at half-time really appeals to me here, hence my selection.
Verdict: Draw at half-time at evens. Why not bet on this game now at William Hill?
Kazakhstan U21 vs France U21 – France U21 to keep a clean sheet at 4/5.
Today’s hosts have been notoriously hard to beat in their current group. They’ve not got an especially talented bunch from what I’ve seen but they work extremely hard and they’re very well-organised. Who is surprised by that, though? They’ve got a Serbian in charge in Srcmarevic and Serbians are simply superb when it comes to defending and this guy is no exception! No side has had an easy game against Kazakhstan U21 in this group as a result and I would expect more of the same today, especially in front of their own fans.
France U21 have a talented bunch this time around, though. Well, they always do, to be fair – they’re one of the most consistently impressive U21 sides that I’ve ever come across. The fact that they’ve still not conceded a goal after six group games whilst winning all of them tells a story by itself, really. They miss Riviere in attack today but they’ve got such a wealth of talent at their disposal that it’s hard to envision them not winning this game anyway. However, I can’t bring myself to back them to do it because they lack a regular goalscorer and their motivation can’t be as high as they’ve already won the group. They’re playing a side that won’t lie down easily, either. That made under 2.5 goals look appealing, as did the +2 AH for Kazakhstan U21. To be honest, I was even toying with taking France to win to nil at 5/6 as all these bets appeal to me. That was until I saw odds of 4/5 on France keeping a clean sheet, though, which is a steal. There’s a reason that France U21 are so good at defending and it’s because they’ve got two centre-backs that are way too good for this level in Mangala and Varane. It’s a very solid core and it allows their flair players like Brahimi, Kakuta, and Griezmann to do the damage at the other end. Still, I’m not 100% convinced that they’ll penetrate a very defensive Kazakhstan U21 side with no motivation to do so, hence me approaching this one cautiously.
However, France U21 have built their success on their defence and I expect them to keep a clean sheet here, whether they fancy winning the game or not. Take your chances if you wish on France U21 winning this game but I’m far too taken with France U21 keeping a clean sheet at 4/5 than I am by any other tip, hence my selection.
Verdict: France U21 to keep a clean sheet at 4/5. Why not bet on this game now at William Hill?
Team news
European Championships:
Poland – No absentees.
Greece – No absentees.
Russia – No absentees.
Czech Republic – Baros is a doubt. Rosicky should return.
Argentinian Primera Division:
Arsenal de Sarandi – Zelaya is absent. Ortiz, D.Perez, and Leguizamon are absent.
Argentinos Juniors – Escudero, Ojeda, and mendoza are absent. Morales is a doubt.