TFT Issue 423!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Spain vs Italy – over 2 goals at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the heavyweight encounter in the European Championships between Spain and Italy.
Spain are widely expected to trounce Italy and you can understand that. Spain have a world-class “A” midfield and a world-class “B” midfield, just to give you an idea of the depth that this nation has. However, it’s becoming increasingly apparent that they’re vulnerable in defence nowadays and I can’t help but feel that we’ll see an example of that here. Puyol’s withdrawal prior to the tournament was a huge blow to Spain’s aspirations because Pique hasn’t been playing well enough this season and the alternatives to either of those two playing at centre-back are farcical. Spain have good options up front in Torres, Negredo, and Llorente, so even David Villa can be excused from this squad, brilliant as he is. Their defence, though – it’s vulnerable and each side that has played against them lately has shown it too. You do have to expect Spain to win this game, primarily because you’d expect them to beat most sides in this tournament. Will they, though? I’m not so sure.
I’m nervous about Spain winning this game for a few different reasons. One is that Italy always seem to have the measure of Spain, irrespective of when or where they meet. Another is that Italy almost always play to their absolute maximum when their backs are against the wall and they are like that now with the new match-fixing allegations that have arisen over the past few weeks and the interrogation by the Italian media of individual members of the Italian squad, the latest of which I believe was Buffon. I believe that this will bring the best out of Italy although to be quite honest, I don’t know what Italy’s best is nowadays because it’s been a long time since I’ve seen it. There are some average/inexperienced players in their squad but there are some world-class players too so what should we expect from them here? Well, one thing is for sure – Barzagli is out and that means De Rossi is likely to be slotted into central defence, which means that Italy’s midfield is weaker and their defence is weaker. De Rossi is a terrific player but he’s a general – he’s not a good enough defender to keep an eye on the movement of Torres, for example, or to deal with the aerial threat of Llorente. That’s where I feel Italy will come unstuck and Spain should capitalise on that. However, with the likes of Balotelli in their squad, you know that Italy have the capacity to cause Spain problems too so I expect an interesting game here.
With Italy’s problems at the back and Spain’s problems at the back, I’m surprised to see over 2 goals priced at 5/6. I appreciate that Spain tend to dominate games and ride them out with low-scoring wins where possible but I’m just not convinced that they can do that here without a really strong display. I think both sides will give a good game here and thus taking over 2 goals appeals to me at 5/6.
Verdict: Over 2 goals at 5/6. Why not bet on this game now at William Hill?
Additional games
Republic of Ireland vs Croatia – Croatia to win to nil at 11/5.
This is the riskiest call of the day so approach it with caution! However, it’s one I do see some potentially huge value in and I’ll explain why.
Defensively, Ireland are one of the best sides in the European Championships for my money. They’re incredibly disciplined at the back with plenty of experience and a lot of support from their midfield. It’s no surprise that they’ve shipped just three goals in fourteen games, really. Their attacking game suffers as a result, though – they don’t often manage to create many chances, let alone score them. Ireland have a chance to change that here as Croatia’s defence is more vulnerable now than it has been for some years with only Simunic from the old guard still remaining. However, I’m not convinced that Ireland will do enough to Croatia to exploit that.
Indeed, I expect a game much more like the friendly between these two sides back in August last year when Croatia dominated the game although hopefully this time they’ll find the net rather than drawing 0-0. There’s no question that Croatia have the creativity in their ranks to do it, too, with both Modric and Kranjcar being very capable playmakers. Croatia are technically very good and have many players capable of delivering good set pieces. Croatia give their strikers plenty of options usually so as long as Eduardo or Jelavic feels in the mood then Croatia should get that troublesome goal against a solid Irish side, one way or another. Croatia will have to be at their best to get it, mind you, but Bilic knows that already and has said as much in his comments pre-match.
I can’t see many goals in this game but the odds on unders are just a joke so I couldn’t bring myself to touch them. However, if either side is to win this game then I personally feel it’ll be Croatia. I respect the Irish a lot but I just don’t think that they have enough firepower here to expose Croatia’s weakest area. Rather than taking the outright Croatia win here, though, or the short odds on the draw no bet option, I’ve opted for a riskier but potentially more profitable approach – taking Croatia to win to nil. Why? Well, if Croatia are to win this game then I’m convinced that they’ll have to do it without conceding. If they concede here then they’re going to struggle as scoring two goals against Ireland is one hell of a task. If Croatia get that elusive lead then I believe they can hold it. My take on this game is why risk taking Croatia to win the game when you can take them to win without conceding at better odds? Again, I don’t see them winning unless they keep a clean sheet so it makes sense to me. Hopefully we’ll have more luck today than yesterday anyway!
Verdict: Croatia to win to nil at 11/5. Why not bet on this game now at William Hill?
Uruguay vs Peru – Uruguay to keep a clean sheet at 5/6.
I rate Uruguay as one of the strongest sides in South American International football right now and I rate Peru as the weakest side. However, in South America, the quality difference isn’t often as obvious as it should be and that’s something that may show here.
Uruguay would have kept a clean sheet in their last game had it not been for a very strange own goal. They’re happily facing one of the more impotent sides in South America today, though, so their experienced defence should be able to keep a clean sheet here. Although Guerrero and Farfan are avaialble for Peru, the much more lethal Pizarro is not and that does affect the Peruvians in the final third. Guerrero is a good striker and Farfan’s pace is a nightmare to handle but Pizarro is their finisher; without him, they really struggle, just as we saw in their recent 0-1 loss at home against Colombia. They’ve got a growing midfield with Fiorentina’s Vargas at the heart of it alongside Corinthians’ Ramirez. Peru have plenty of battlers, too – they won’t give in without a fight. Goalscoring remains a huge problem for them, however, and I don’t see that changing tonight. Uruguay really should beat Peru but I’ve seen them in that situation before and Uruguay really don’t like breaking down sides due to a lack of width. They’ve got some terrific players from a creative perspective and from a finishing perspective but preparing a “Plan B” for their attacking game nowadays has proven to be somewhat troublesome so I’m not confident enough in them beating Peru to take them to win to nil here. However, I do like the odds of 5/6 on Uruguay keeping a clean sheet in this game as they rarely do enough on the road to score goals. Peru were drubbed 6-0 the last time they were facing Uruguay in Montevideo in a World Cup Qualifier and although the same result is definitely possible here, I’m just a bit dubious about the Uruguayans taking apart a pretty well-organised Peruvian side. For me, taking Uruguay to keep a clean sheet at 5/6 looks more appealing today, although the win to nil option is definitely on for any of you that feel bold here if you bear in mind that Peru have lost every World Cup Qualifier away from home since 2004!
Verdict: Uruguay to keep a clean sheet at 5/6. Why not bet on this game now at William Hill?
HB Torshavn vs EB/Streymur – over 3.5 goals at 8/5.
I might see this one blow up in my face but these odds are way too good to overlook. This is a pretty fierce rivalry game in the Faroe Islands but it’s one that always produces goals. Now that HB Torshavn have brought Mouritsen back, they’ve actually developed an attacking threat again and that attacking threat coupled with their dynamic midfield makes them a potent attacking side again. Their defence is worse than ever, however, as they concede freely whenever put under any kind of pressure. Benjaminsen may be 34 but his movement and composure is priceless for HB Torshavn and you can see Hallur Hanssen learning a lot from him already. Simun Samuelsen’s pace is always a threat and all of the above combined makes even av Flotum look like a robust and mobile attacker nowadays, which he’s not. He’s a decent finisher, however, and has bags of experience. HB are the top goalscorers in the Meistaradeildin at the moment, however, and on the back of two straight wins, you have to expect them to enter this game with confidence.
EB/Streymur hold a strange voodoo sign over HB at the moment, though. HB have only beaten them once in their last five attempts in the Meistaradeildin. I’m not a religious man but if there is a God in the Faroe Islands then he’s definitely an EB/Streymur fan because the last time these two sides met in the Meistaradeildin, HB Torshavn missed three penalties! EB/Streymur always have a very good side, which makes them difficult to face to begin with, but HB being opposed by deities certainly doesn’t help them out here. Hansen and Niclasen are linking up well in attack for EB/Streymur, which doesn’t bode well for HB’s…uh…”defence”. The pace and skill of Hans Samuelsen from midfield should prove to be another problem that HB just can’t deal with today and with a whole host of attacking players alongside him that are more than capable of scoring goals, you have to feel that there will be goals from both sides today.
These two sides met in the Logmanssteypid a few weeks ago. They played two legs and the eventual scoreline was 6-6 with EB/Streymur winning on away goals, just to give you an indication of what I expect here. HB Torshavn may well seek revenge here, which would be understandable. The last six meetings between these two sides in all competitions have easily gone over 3.5 goals and I see nothing to suggest that we’ll see anything different today, especially after HB have had their much-needed rest. For me, there’s a lot of value in this selection today if both sides show up as expected.
Verdict: Over 3.5 goals at 8/5. Why not bet on this game now at William Hill?
Team news
European Championships:
Italy – Barzagli is absent.
Spain – No news.
Republic of Ireland – No news.
Croatia – No news.
Argentinian Primera Division:
Tigre – Escobar, G.Diaz, and Paparatto are absent.
San Lorendo de Almagro – Buffarini, Luna, Menseguez, and Voboril are absent. Aguirre is a doubt.
All Boys – Quiroga, Barrientos, and Burgos are absent.
Estudiantes De La Plata – German Re, Perez, Mercado, Brana, Desabato, and Andujar are absent.
Olimpo – Diaz and Rios are absent.
Atletico Lanus – D.Gonzalez and Camoranesi are absent.
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza – No absentees.
Belgrano de Cordoba – Pereyra is absent. Silvera and R.Rodriguez are doubts.
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Vilnius – No news.
Kruoja Pakruojis – Antipov has left.