TFT Issue 431!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
FH Hafnarfjordur vs Stjarnan Gardabaer – over 3 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Icelandic Urvalsdeild game between heavyweights FH Hafnarfjordur and samba Stjarnan Gardabaer.
FH sit atop the Urvalsdeild after seven games, having won five of them. They’ll be pleased with that, too – FH are notoriously slow starters to their campaigns. I wouldn’t say that this is the best FH side that I’ve seen because it’s not. They lack a bit of innovation in attack barring Snorason but let’s face it; most Icelandic defences are bloody awful and thus Bjornsson, Gudnason, and Ingason can run riot at will. Runarsson and especially Sverrison provide great support and ultimately you’ll rarely find a game that FH don’t score in because they have the edge over almost all other Icelandic sides in terms of quality. FH have actually been better on the road than they have at home in the current campaign, for my money. At home, they’ve had to deal with sides parking the bus and that’s a bit of a problem for FH to handle this year. The only exception to that was Fylkir Reykjavik and they immediately regretted that tactical approach as they were mercilessly slaughtered 8-0. I very much doubt that we’ll see a repeat of that scoreline here but FH are good enough to do it so I wouldn’t rule it out.
However, Stjarnan Gardabaer will have something to say about this scoreline, in my view. Stjarnan simply don’t fear anyone, hence their samba attacking game. I watched their recent game against Valur Reykjavik and their attempts at defending were ridiculous at best. It’s a good job that Valur don’t specialise in scoring goals or else we’d have seen a very different scoreline. Still, Stjarnan specialise in exploiting their opponents and they’re very good at it too, to their credit. They’ve scored in all of their away games this season and even claimed a 2-2 draw with heavyweights KR Reykjavik so don’t underestimate how much of a pain this side can be against the right opponent. At home, I’d give Stjarnan the nod over most sides but on the road, you have to feel that they’ll struggle. Stjarnan are good enough to score here but they’re also bad enough at the back to ship three or four goals, which is most likely what will occur here.
As long as FH take their chances in this game then this is a straightforward home win. However, this should be a much more open game than FH usually get at home and that should lead us to goals, one way or another, so taking over 3 goals appeals to me at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 4/5.
Additional games
VPS Vaasa vs FC Honka Espoo – both sides to score at 5/6.
If I had to make a list of sides in the Veikkausliiga that are likely to score and concede in most of their games, VPS would probably not even be on it. If they were on it, they’d be down near the bottom. Why? Well, VPS tend to approach games very defensively and they’re usually effective with it too, although rather ineffectual in front of goal.
Football can be a much different game than that, though. VPS have looked very strong lately because they’ve attacked with purpose and they’ve taken their chances. They’ve had to ride their luck in some games, just as they did in their 0-1 win at Haka Valkeakoski lately. They missed Strandvall a lot in that game and he’s a doubt today so let’s hope he features! VPS are a hard-working side, however, and no side ever enjoys playing in Vaasa. They’re a physically strong and fairly dirty side and thus big sides like Honka especially dislike coming here. You’ll probably find that more “shock” results come in Vaasa than anywhere else in the Veikkausliiga for reasons listed above so I would always respect VPS, especially when playing at home. Getting Koskimaa back has boosted their defence although their lack of an established number one is a continual thorn in their side. Nonetheless, with former HJK striker Parikka and Jamaican hotshot Morrissey in good form, VPS are scoring goals and it’d be daft to overlook that.
That said, Honka themselves are gathering up a bit of momentum. They dumped HJK Helsinki out of the Suomen Cup on penalties and beat Inter Turku 2-1 last match so confidence is rising in the Honka camp and they need it, too. People often fail to acknowledge just how young Honka’s team always is and thus confidence plays a huge part in deciding which Honka shows up; the one that is a top three side or the one that has zero composure and zero organisation. Ironically, Honka tend to be stronger on the road than they are at home but it’s been the opposite this season, which is intriguing. Still, the likes of Dudu, Vayrynen, Petrescu, Vesara, and especially Otaru are good enough to cause problems, even without the still-missed Savage. Lekhosuo’s side is good enough to cause VPS problems here if they apply themselves correctly and given that they’ve actually approached a game correctly for a change, I’ll allow them the possibility of scoring a result in this game.
We should see a fascinating game here, though. VPS weren’t at their best in their last game and Honka had to ride their luck at stages too. However, there looks to be enough on show for both sides to score in this game and with both sides having scored in this fixture for seven out of the last eight games between them in Vaasa, I feel it’s well worth taking again today.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
TPS Turku vs MyPa Anjalankoski – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
On paper, this looks like an over 2.5 goals game but I just can’t agree with that. TPS are the better side but they hate playing sides that park the bus like MyPa do in games like these. TPS have a good attack but it’s predominantly built around counter-attacking so breaking through sides is something that they struggle to do, especially at their temporary stadium, as it’s actually a little smaller than their usual arena – Veritas – which makes it easier for sides to defend here. TPS have attacked with purpose in their last few games, which the statistics don’t really reflect. However, they’ve also been complete mugs at the back and have struggled as a result. I just can’t see this game producing many goals, however. MyPa are not a good attacking side and their lack of goals over the past few weeks shows their true colours. That said, their spirit is strong and their cohesion levels are good so they are likely to make TPS work very hard here. TPS could and probably should win this game but on the back of four straight defeats, you have to feel that there’s some value on over-achieving MyPa. Still, that side of things doesn’t interest me as TPS are more than capable of flattening MyPa in the right circumstances. Taking under 2.5 goals at 4/5 looks interesting, though – TPS’ other three home games in the Veikkausliiga this season against defensively-minded away sides have all gone under 2.5 goals with a 2-0 win against Haka Valkeakoski, a 1-0 win against VPS Vaasa, and a 0-1 loss against today’s opponents MyPa Anjalankoski. I wouldn’t touch the 1×2 market as you never know which one of these two sides will actually show up. However, whoever does score first will most likely try to sit on it as that’s what they both tend to do so taking under 2.5 goals appeals to me at 4/5.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
FC Lahti vs Haka Valkeakoski – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
This is quite a bold call as Lahti are missing some key players but I was impressed with what they did in Kuopio so why not back them to emulate it here? KuPS love to fall apart against lesser sides, admittedly, and they did so in classic KuPS fashion too. However, Lahti worked hard and took their chances, which was impressive. Even the absence of Taulo and Kari doesn’t concern me here as Haka haven’t looked dependable at all at the back this season, which is unusual for Ristila’s side. Lahti can damage them here, especially if Rafael is passed fit. Let’s face it; this is a must-win game for Lahti if they intend on beating the drop so I think they’ll be motivated for this one, especially after the morale-boosting win at KuPS.
Haka can win this one, though. They’re the better side and they’re a dangerous side when underestimated. I did toy with the idea of taking them to win this one with draw no bet but I just don’t have the faith in them this season that I had in spells last season. I don’t know if it’s because Nooitmeer buggered off to play for Birkirkara in Malta pre-season but Haka lack a leader at the back and it’s causing problems. Look at how many goals they’ve conceded on the road this season – twelve in their last four Veikkausliiga away games! I don’t care who they’ve played; that’s not Haka’s style, and it’s certainly not Ristila’s style. Haka have become a more attacking side but are more ineffectual because of it. Don’t get me wrong here – the Irish duo of Robinson and McFarul are dangerous midfielders, as is former HJK Helsinki playmaker Dema. Indeed, with former Manchester United youngster Puustinen, pacey Metzger, and even the overrated Kastrati in their ranks, Haka definitely boast attacking threats, moreso than their hosts. Their inability to defend concerns me, though – I don’t know how they’ll cope as the season drags on when they usually gain points from parking the bus.
The above makes me think that this game will cruise over 2.5 goals. It’s very much a “winnable” game for both sides and both sides are bad enough at the back to allow it to happen, hence my selection.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
IFK Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
I like this one a lot more than I should, to be honest. HJK always struggle on the road without their springy artificial turf to rely upon at the Sonera Stadion. They struggle to dominate possession as a result and that’s why they usually don’t score anywhere near as many goals on the road as they do at home. They bagged three at JJK lately, it’s true, but JJK are the worst side in Finland when it comes to defending. Put HJK up against a well-organised unit and they struggle to do anything, hence the nervy 0-1 win at Haka Valkeakoski and hence VPS’ tactic of closing HJK down whenever they had the ball leading them to a deserved 1-0 win over the reigning champions. HJK are not as immortal as they were last season due to player sales and although they’re still good enough to win here, to say that I have my reservations over them doing so would be an understatement.
IFK Mariehamn are very, very good at home and they’re often underrated too. They’re physically strong, determined, strong believers in themselves, and rarely give goals away on their own turf. They struggle to take their chances, as they demonstrated against MyPa lately. However, they’re good enough to create those chances with the likes of Forsell pulling the strings from the centre of the park and they’re definitely good enough to upset the reigning champions today if they play their usual game.
Aland is not a place that any away side enjoys going to and HJK know it all too well, especially with seven out of their last eight visits here going under 2.5 goals. IFK are a polar opposite of a side to what HJK are, which usually makes these encounters rather fascinating for oddballs like me. HJK still miss Savage and Sadik isn’t fit enough to play here so HJK’s will be predictable, if not easy to stop. I think IFK Mariehamn are too long here, truth be told. I find more value in taking under 2.5 goals than I do in opposing HJK here, however.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Hameenlinna vs PK-35 Helsinki – away win with -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Fun, fun, fun! There’s a monumental quality gap between these two sides and Hameenlinna are missing two of their usual back four. Need I say more? PK-35 struggle a bit away from home when it comes to taking their chances but they’re facing a vastly inferior side that is missing half their defence. PK-35 should have more than enough to rip Hameenlinna apart here. I’ve got a 0-2 or 0-3 scoreline in mind but as long as the visitors apply themselves correctly then they should clear the -1 Asian Handicap, which is generously set at 4/5.
Verdict: PK-35 Helsinki to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
SJK vs Jippo Joensuu – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
This is quite a bold call because Jippo’s usual tactics in games like these are to sit back and defend because that’s what they excel at. However, the form of both sides lately is enough to convince me to take over 2.5 goals here. SJK are the better side but have been dealt an amusing “welcome to the Ykkonen!” card lately with three games against the feared northern sides of the Ykkonen – AC Oulu, OPS Oulu, and RoPS Rovaniemi respectively – and the newly-promoted side were beaten in all three games. SJK fought valiantly but they need to get used to the idea that there are better sides than themselves in the Ykkonen, something that simply wasn’t an issue in the Kakkonen. SJK are still a good side but their confidence has been knocked and thus I feel that the Jippo counter-attacks that have served them so well lately could be effective here. You still have to favour SJK to do the necessary damage to edge the game, especially with experienced poacher Toni Lehtinen leading the line. However, I think experienced Ykkonen battlers Jippo will make it hard for them, even with their notable absentees. Ngueukam can make things happen on the counter-attack and thus one way or another, I do think that this game will go over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
AC Oulu vs RoPS Rovaniemi – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
It’s derby day in nothern Finland and with RoPS having won the initial meeting between these two sides 1-0 on the opening day of the season, you have to feel that AC Oulu will be up for a bit of revenge here.
Will they get it, though? I have my doubts about them being able to. RoPS may look to concede goals on a reasonably regular basis on paper but take a look at their games this season against good attacking sides listed below:
RoPS 1 AC Oulu 0
OPS Oulu 0 RoPS 1
PK-35 0 RoPS 0
SJK 1 RoPS 3
That’s right – they’ve shipped one goal in four games against good opponents this season and I see no reason to expect anything other than that here. As a former striker himself, it’s somewhat surprising that RoPS boss Hiukka sets his side up so well at the back but Konenen and co. tend to do very well at frustrating their opponents and it’s that experience and efficiency that makes me believe that RoPS will be a Veikkausliiga side again next season. RoPS are a very solid and dependable outfit with plenty of firepower so never underestimate them. They may really piss off their “local” rivals by beating them again here, even – they’re definitely good enough to. However, I think RoPS’ attention will be more on defence than ever with AC Oulu uniting Stafsula with Zeze to make a lethal front pair, which is precisely why I will not be betting on the winner of this derby. Either side could edge this one but I just can’t see many goals coming in it barring a ridiculously open game developing, which is difficult to imagine as it’d require some rather bizarre circumstances to happen.
For me, taking under 2.5 goals at 9/10 looks appealing here, especially with three out of the last four meetings between the two clubs in all competitions having gone under 2.5 goals.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Team news
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Lahti – Taulo, Kari, Hukka, and Kemppinen are absent. Rafael, Grossohmichen, and Veltheim are doubts.
Haka Valkeakoski – Dema is absent. McFarul returns.
IFK Mariehamn – Wiklof is absent.
HJK Helsinki – Savage is absent. Sadik is a doubt.
TPS Turku – Hurme and Lehtovaara are absent.
MyPa Anjalankoski – No absentees.
VPS Vaasa – Bjork and Jibrin are absent. Strandvall is a doubt.
FC Honka Espoo – Rexhepi returns.
Finnish Ykkonen:
AC Oulu – No news.
RoPS Rovaniemi – Tyystala is a doubt. Kokko returns.
Hameenlinna – Suhonen, Topinoja, and Graciano are absent.
PK-35 Helsinki – No absentees.
KooTeePee Kotka – Jammeh and Lomidze are absent.
HiFK Helsinki – Kibona, Britschgi, and Halme are absent. Antman, Hanninen are doubts.
SJK – No absentees.
Jippo Joensuu – Ake, Gruda, and Ikonen are absent. Sormunen, Koivuranta, Eronen, and Korpela are absent.
Viikingit Helsinki – No absentees.
OPS Oulu – Kemppainen and Hyde are absent.