TFT Issue 432!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Tanjong Pagar vs Albirex Niigata – away win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
Today’s featured game is the S-League encounter between boring Tanjong Pagar and samba Albirex Niigata.
Just to give you an idea of how dour the hosts are, they’ve won every home game this season that they’ve taken the lead in (without conceding too!) and they’ve lost every home game this season that they’ve fallen behind in. This is very much a direct, route one type of side that tends to score from set pieces and then defend like mad. If they fall behind, they’re usually done for. They’re not in a good position for their smash-and-grab tactics today with leading goalscorer Kawanabe suspended. He’s scored well over 50% of Tanjong Pagar’s goals this season so he will definitely be missed here. Tanjong Pagar might not have a difficult challenge ahead of them to take apart a vulnerable Albirex Niigata defence but they’ve no weapons with which to do it so I doubt that they’ll manage it today.
Visitors Albirex Niigata are careless in defence but what they lack in organisation they make up for in potency. They’ve got two very quick strikers in duo Soya and Yamakoshi and despite a rather youthful midfield supporting them, this side is surprisingly good at taking apart their opponents. It’s been remarked many times this season that Albirex Niigata have played some great football in the S-League this season and that’s perfectly true; it’s just a shame that their defence isn’t as dependable as their attack! However, against a toothless and frankly inferior Tanjong Pagar, you have to fancy a convincing away win in this game.
For me, there’s value on taking Albirex Niigata -1.5 at evens today, especially as there’s very little home advantage in Singapore for any side but DPMM FC.
Verdict: Albirex Niigata to beat the -1.5 handicap at evens.
Additional game
Czech Republic vs Portugal – Czech Republic to receive over 2.5 cards at 4/5.
I was on the brink of leaving this game well alone until I saw the above odds. They’ve persuaded me to get involved, though, and I’ll explain why.
Portugal are the better side here; we all know that. 4/5 on them beating the Czechs, though? That looks a bit short to me. The Czechs aren’t a patch on what they used to be quality-wise but they’re a lot shrewder tactically and packed full of hard-working individuals. They have threats on the counter-attack in Pilar, Plasil, and Rosicky (if he’s passed fit) and are a dangerous side to underestimate. They’re also rather well-organised, which is intriguing as they do lack a bit of leadership at the back nowadays. They’ve been smart in all of their games in the tournament thus far, however, and it’d be silly to expect anything other than that here.
Portugal did terrifically well in Group C, in my view. I thought the way that they approached each game was smart and they did what they had to do in impressive fashion. I thought they’d have crashed out of Group C rather easily but they fought hard and have well and truly earned their place in the quarter-finals. However, they’re up against a Czech side today that will almost certainly deploy a style that Portugal are notorious for struggling with; parking the bus. Portugal are glorious on counter-attacks, as they demonstrated against Netherlands. They’re not good, however, at breaking sides down. They’ve shown that time and time again, especially against inferior sides, and I think it’ll hurt them again today. It’s going to take a bad defensive error from the Czechs or a piece of magic from messrs Ronaldo and Nani to make it anything but a tight, low-scoring game, in my view.
Therefore, the value has to be in the cards market, for my money. In order to stop Portugal, the Czechs have to stop Ronaldo and Nani. Stopping Ronaldo in the form he showed against Netherlands is impossible and I’m confident that the Czechs will foul him quite a lot. The same goes for Nani, too. Portugal aren’t short of divers in their team, either, so they may have a few favourable decisions here. The Czechs have adventurous full-backs that are strong going forward but susceptible at the back, which is where Portugal excel. Again, I expect some strong challenges with the Czechs trying to deal with them and I expect cards for that. Therefore, taking the Czechs to receive over 2.5 cards at 4/5 appeals to me today.
Verdict: Czech Republic to receive over 2.5 cards at 4/5.