TFT Issue 435!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
HJK Helsinki vs TPS Turku – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga game between reigning champions HJK Helsinki and supposed title contenders TPS Turku.
HJK enter this game on the back of a 2-0 defeat at IFK Mariehamn. On paper, that might look a shade embarrassing but Aland is always a tough little island group to go and play football in. Many surprise results happen there each year and this HJK side were a little naive and inexperienced, hence their loss. Had they not played such a high line then Jagne wouldn’t have been allowed to run in behind them and damage them so much. Indeed, that’s precisely why HJK conceded twice in the game – pacey runs in behind and crosses being fired across goal. HJK looked particularly susceptible at right-back where Kansikas was deployed instead of converted winger Sorsa. Still, HJK didn’t really deserve to lose the game, in my view. Had Makela kept his head and opened his eyes more often then he’d have scored his one-on-one and used his options rather than firing tamely at the goalkeeper from outside the box. HJK’s team of last year wouldn’t have lost this game; that much I can assure you. HJK do still have a lot to learn but they’re still the best side in Finland and they almost always show it at the Sonera Stadion. The artificial turf makes this a particularly hard place to play but the fact that HJK almost always have the ball here makes it even harder to deal with them. Sadik is gradually returning from lengthy injury to give them a proper target man up front and HJK do look good going forward. They’re solid and dependable enough to be relied upon at home and I think that they’re more than capable of recording a comfortable win here.
Happily, TPS Turku are shaping up horribly for this game, which encourages me. They were immense at the start of the season with pure tactical precision and a scything counter-attack being launched whenever they were attacked. That sharpness has gone now, though – they look a shell of the side that they were, to be honest. The news that they’ve lost regular goalkeeper Lehtovaara for most (if not all) of the season is not going to help matters, either. The last thing you want to do is invite pressure on your defence when you have a new goalkeeper but that’s precisely what TPS did against MyPa in their last game by giving the ball away in midfield all the time and reacting slowly to situations in defence.TPS were outplayed, outfought, and out-thought in that game by MyPa and had Koskinen not committed a clumsy challenge in the box to give TPS Turku a penalty then they probably wouldn’t have won the game. Indeed, their only other chance than that was when Pennanen stung the hands of Kuismala; TPS did very little else to MyPa. They got in behind MyPa’s defence a couple of times in the second-half, sure. Viewing that as a sense of accomplishment is the same as respecting someone’s ability to go to Tesco and managing to buy food all buy themselves, though – MyPa are not good at the back!! MyPa were very unlucky at the other end, though, which is something that I doubt HJK will have problems with here. TPS were ultimately far too easy to get around in their last game and if they do the same here then they’re going to get ripped apart.
The only way to trouble HJK at the moment is to get at them because they’re not the same side as they were last year; there are few faces there that aren’t used to being pressurised. If deployed correctly, Aaritalo’s pace and strength could be a nightmare for HJK to deal with here with their high line. However, TPS’ inability to keep the ball and to create chances makes me think that this game will be all one-way traffic and with TPS missing Lehtovaara, I think taking HJK to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5 is a bit of a steal today.
Verdict: HJK Helsinki to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Additional games
FC Honka Espoo vs FC Lahti – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
I’ve been opposing Honka for most of the season but they’re starting to look good now, much more than the results reflect. I felt that they were desperately unlucky to leave Vaasa with nothing as they caused problem after problem for VPS’ usually sturdy defence. Otaru in particular was an absolute nightmare to deal with down the right-hand side but unfortunately the strikers in the middle weren’t on his wavelength and he looked exasperated by the end of the game. Why Honka didn’t field Dudu from the start is beyond me, really – he’s their best striker by some distance. Vasara did well but his decision-making in the final third was questionable to say the least. His movement made Honka’s attack a lot more mobile, though, and ultimately Honka would have scored two or three goals on another day. As ever, it was their suicidal defending that cost them the game, though. Jamaican striker Steven Morrissey is arguably the hottest property in the Veikkausliiga right now with his pace and movement but Honka made it too easy for him time and time again. He could have scored four in that game purely from Honka’s defensive mistakes but was happy to settle for two and VPS won the game 2-0. Don’t ever rely on Honka’s defence because they’re shocking! However, their attack is looking good so I’ll extend them the olive branch here as they’re going to hammer someone in the near future, especially if Vayrynen delivers more snap-shots like he did against VPS.
I like going against Lahti because they’re shit, to be horribly blunt. They made a mess of their must-win game against Haka Valkeakoski last time out because they didn’t take the chances that they created (which is no surprise as they have no proper goalscorers) and because they were embarrassingly bad at the back. Their defending has always been questionable but now their goalkeeper Szentpeteri has decided to not bother with positioning any longer, which is a real problem. McFaul’s goal for Haka was a scorcher but if Szentpeteri is in the right place then he saves the shot; it’s as simple as that. Lahti still have too many essential players out right now (e.g. Kari) although Taulo returns today and despite Honka’s defensive laxity, I think that they’ll tear Lahti a new one today.
I cannot emphasise enough that you shouldn’t take this tip as a European Handicap because Honka can concede at any time against any side. However, I’m keen on the Asian Handicap as it has that additional insurance and it shouldn’t really lose as long as Lehkosuo utilises Nigerian hitman Dudu in this game. Honka really should be winning this one with the way that they’ve played lately and Lahti are bad enough in front of goal for Honka to beat the handicap.
Verdict: FC Honka Espoo to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
Jaro Pietarsaari vs MyPa Anjalankoski – both sides to score at 4/5.
Jaro are going from strength to strength now that they’ve got a big target man to aim for in Jonke and they’ve looked really good of late. Don’t get me wrong here – they’re still a bit susceptible, especially in their full-back areas. However, as a unit, they’ve looked really good. Eremenko’s ability as Manager has never been in question, at least not in my own eyes. Jaro play a good passing game when they’re in-form and the ability of Niang and Jonke up front means that this side has goals in them, essentially. In another year, I’d have been all over the Jaro win here, to be honest. This year, though – no.
Why? Well, as surprising as it is, MyPa are actually playing really well. I don’t know how but they’re actually playing with tremendous belief and cohesion and they’re really easy on the eye. They could be the surprise package of the Veikkausliiga this season if things carry on as they are. They’re not a good side on paper but they work really well as a unit and the fact that they can go to Turku and dominate TPS tells you that this side has turned a corner. Indeed, had Ghanian hitman Opoku been on his game then he could have bagged a hat-trick last match. He was handed a couple of chances on a plate that he squandered but was perhaps a shade unlucky to have his shot after a goalmouth scramble blocked with Moisander in no man’s land. Ramadingaye’s runs were causing TPS’ defence a lot of problems and both Oksanen and new signing Williams could have scored a deserved equaliser but Oksanen failed to realise the space that he had before flicking his header at goal and Williams’ acrobatic effort left Moisander for dead but ended up going wide of the mark. MyPa may be four games without a goal now but their play in their last game showed tremendous confidence in their squad and it’s only a matter of time before they turn it around and a susceptible Jaro defence could be perfect for MyPa today.
I favour Jaro here with the momentum that they have and the odds are generous enough to take a punt on. However, I much prefer the option of taking both sides to score at 4/5 with the above in mind.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Inter Turku vs VPS Vaasa – away win with +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
For me, this game screams value. Inter Turku are the better side, yes, but that means nothing without the displays and the fact is that Inter Turku are not producing those displays right now.
At the start of the season, Inter Turku were unplayable. The fact is that any attack containing Lehtonen, Sirbiladze, Kauko, and Ojala is superb. Inter Turku always have goals in them and maybe they’ll score here; they usually do. However, they didn’t create enough chances against Jaro Pietarsaari last time out and looked a bit short of confidence. Bahne’s replacement Reponen looked nervous in goal for Inter Turku and that summed Inter up in general, really – nervous. They ended up conceding against Jaro through not clearing their lines properly and the demoralising effect the goal had on the players were very much visible from the looks on their faces. At the final whistle, a number of Dragtsma’s players actually lay down as if they’d lost a massive cup final or something. They look a shadow of the side that they were earlier this season and I’m happy to opppose them here with that in mind.
Whether they knew it or not, VPS have actually stumbled across a much-needed striker in Morrissey, who is rapidly becoming notorious for being in the right place at the right time. He never stops working and his pace and strength are causing Veikkausliiga defences everywhere problems. He bagged twice against Honka but could have scored four had he kept his composure and had Peltonen not denied him on one occasion. His movement gives VPS a really dangerous attack, however, and this has lifted the team massively. They’re now a side that defends with calmness and composure whilst attacking with a real threat. VPS are a side that are always much more motivated against the bigger sides than the lesser sides. They’re usually at their strongest in Vaasa but have played well on the road this season too, already having recorded a 1-1 draw at FC Honka Espoo and a 0-2 win at JJK Jyvaskyla. TPS Turku only just managed to beat VPS Vaasa 1-0 earlier this season and HJK lost at VPS in the last few weeks. VPS are a side that are doing very well right now and I think they’re the nightmare side for Inter Turku to stumble across right now in their current form.
Taking both sides to score really appeals to me here but on the basis that VPS are much more defensive on the road, I’m going to skip that one today. Instead, I’m opting to give VPS a +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5 because if Inter win this game then they’re going to have play much better in this game than they have for recent weeks in order for the tip to lose. I fancy VPS to score here and get a point or maybe even three if they’re really lucky. This is Inter’s first game back at the Veritas Stadion for a while, incidentally, so perhaps approach the tip with a bit of caution as this is their preferred stadium.
Verdict: VPS Vaasa to win with +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
RoPS Rovaniemi vs Hameenlinna – Hameenlinna to win with first-half +1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
I’m a huge adovcate of RoPS because they’re my favourite Finnish side by a mile and because they’re playing the best football in the Ykkonen right now. However, don’t get carried away with them; they’re not a goalscoring side. Yes, they have talented attacking players, none moreso than Mexican hotshot Rivera. However, RoPS’ style this year is one of efficiency that builds from the back. They’re often capable of clearing the -1.5 handicap at home against the weaker Ykkonen sides but it usually takes them some time to do so. It’s not a problem for RoPS as they’ve got the patience and clinical finishers required to win their games at any time. However, they’re not an all-out attack side and it can take them some time to break sides down. Hameenlinna are a poor side but they’ve improved lately, which perhaps isn’t reflected as well in their results as it should be. They’re battling well and they’re not conceding goals as easily. I think that they’ll come to Rovaniemi with the intention of stopping the hosts from running riot in the first-half whilst trying to counter-attack them and score the odd goal. Who knows – it may even work. I doubt it, mind you – RoPS are the Germany of the Ykkonen and just find ways to win games. Still, I think it’ll take time for RoPS to break through so giving Hameenlinna a +1 Asian Handicap for the first-half looks very intriguing at 5/6 with that in mind.
Verdict: Hameenlinna to win with first-half +1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
OPS Oulu vs KooTeePee Kotka – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
These odds are…confusing, to say the least. I’m not stupid enough to go crazy about the fact that KooTeePee are second-bottom in the Ykkonen right now and claim that OPS Oulu are by far the better side blah blah blah. However, KooTeePee are playing very poorly right now. For a side that prides itself on its strong defence, they’re conceding goals far too easily and that’s destroying their gameplan in each match because they’re not good at coming from behind. Give them a lead and they’re a nightmare to face but there aren’t many easier sides to deal with when they fall behind than KooTeePee Kotka. The trip to Oulu is a long one and the hosts are very good at home. They’re creative, potent, and relentless on their own turf. Take two of their regular starters away from the team and they become an average side very quickly but their starting eleven is very strong. OPS Oulu have already drubbed Hameenlinna 4-0 at home this season and only league leaders RoPS Rovaniemi have left here with anything but a defeat. PK-35 Helsinki lost here at the start of June and OPS Oulu are more than capable of winning this one, in my view. I wouldn’t read much into their recent loss at Viikingit Helsinki as Viikingit are very strong at home and OPS aren’t great on the road. In Oulu, you have to fancy OPS to trouble most sides, let alone a KooTeePee side that has real problems in each area of the field right now. For me, taking OPS to beat the -1 Asian Handicap is well worth a flutter at 11/10.
Verdict: OPS Oulu to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
PK-35 Helsinki vs Viikingit Helsinki – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
This is a hotly-contested derby between two Helsinki clubs but there’s a bit of a quality gap that favours PK-35 quite significantly. Viikingit’s kids have done well lately and have put in spirited displays, most notably during their 2-0 defeat at RoPS Rovaniemi recently. However, Viikingit have scored once in three away games this season; it doesn’t take a genius to work out where things are going wrong. Delgado gives Viikingit all the chances that they need from midfield but they aren’t taking their chances and it’s hard to see them doing so against a superior PK-35 Helsinki side today, especially on the difficult artificial turf. PK-35 are quite simply winners; they have the winning mentality instilled into them, which was demonstrated with their strange but effective 1-2 win at Hameenlinna recently. PK-35 haven’t conceded in their last two derbies when hosting Viikingit and they’ve kept clean sheets against both AC Oulu and RoPS Rovaniemi already this season so they’re definitely clear favourites here. As long as PK-35’s take their chances with leading goalscorer Santala absent then PK-35 should noy only take the lead but at the very least win this game. Viikingit are susceptible at the back so taking PK-35 to beat the -1 Asian Handicap looks appealing at 5/6.
Verdict: PK-35 Helsinki to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Team news
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Honka Espoo – No news.
FC Lahti – Kari, Hukka, and Kemppinen are absent. Taulo returns.
Inter Turku – Gnabouyou, Bahne, Lehto, and Nikkari are absent.
VPS Vaasa – Jibrin and Bjork are absent.
Jaro Pietarsaari – Grove, Skrabb, and Aho are doubts.
MyPa Anjalankoski – No absentees.
Haka Valkeakoski – Dema and Pesonen are absent. Matrone returns.
JJK Jyvaskyla – Kuhmonen and Jarvinen are absent.
HJK Helsinki – Zeneli is absent. Sadik is a doubt.
TPS Turku – Lehtovaara is absent.
KuPS Kuopio – No absentees.
IFK Mariehamn – Lyyski and Wiklof are absent.
Finnish Ykkonen:
Jippo Joensuu – Suoraniemi is absent. Korpela, Sormunen, O.Ikonen, and Itala are doubts. M. Ikonen and Koivuranta return.
AC Oulu – Nurmela is absent.
OPS Oulu – Nganbe is a doubt. Hyde and Kemppainen are absent.
KooTeePee Kotka – Jarviniemi, Jammeh, and Lomidze are absent.
PK-35 Helsinki – Santala, Ikegwuonu, and Seferi are absent.
Viikingit Helsinki – No news.
RoPS Rovaniemi – No absentees.
Hameenlinna – Graciano, Tuomenoja, Makela, and Suhonen are absent.