TFT Issue 438!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
JJK Jyvaskyla vs FC Honka Espoo – over 3 goals at 11/10.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga game between JJK Jyvaskyla vs FC Honka Espoo.
JJK are defending worse than ever and look worryingly short in attack. They committed so many clumsy challenges in the box against Haka last time out that it was a miracle that Haka were only awarded one penalty. It’s not just that, though – it’s their positioning and offside trap, too. To be honest, you could surmise it by saying that JJK are absolutely dreadful at defending. If Haka score three goals against you then you’ve done something horribly wrong in defence and that’s what JJK did in Valkeakoski. Not paying any attention to arguably Haka’s most dangerous attacking player in Robinson was just ridiculous and he punished them by scoring a hat-trick from midfield. JJK still attacked well because that’s what they do but they lack a bit of conviction sometimes. The bright spark for their excellent midfield is that striker Wusu is looking sharp. His movement is causing all kinds of problems for opponents and he could have scored two or three in their last game alone. Phrase it how you will, though – JJK are a side that scores and concedes goals against everyone and that’s exactly what I expect from them today.
FC Honka Espoo are…very similar to JJK. They’re just as suicidal in defence (check out the first goal that they conceded against VPS!) with dallying on the ball, poor positioning, and poor organisation. They’re too young and inexperienced to have any kind of recognisable defence and it costs them in almost every game, which was nearly the case in their 3-2 win against FC Lahti a few days ago. However, FC Honka Espoo are a good attacking side and they’re starting to demonstrate that. Their form has been good lately, at least in the final third. Otaru and Vesara are causing problems although Petrescu misses out here through suspension. FC Honka Espoo are a confidence side, though – that’s the only time that you’ll see the best of them, really – when they have confidence. When they do, though, you don’t want to be on the opposing side because they tear teams apart. As long as they’re clinical, they’ll definitely contribute to the scoreline here.
For me, this game should have plenty of goals in it. Neither side has travelled excessively despite playing just a few days ago and both are filled with attacking talent being pitted against awful defences. Taking over 3 goals looks the logical choice at 11/10 for me.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 11/10.
Additional games
Germany vs Italy – Germany to win at 10/11.
Although I’m of the opinion that there are better games to bet on today, I do find some value in taking Germany to win this one. Tactically speaking, Germany have been the masters in this tournament thus far and I expect another superb tactical display from Loew’s side. Confidence is high and they’re clinical to boot. Germany are susceptible when attacked with pace but they usually have enough protection from midfield to prevent it from happening too often. In the final third, Germany always find ways to exploit their opponents whether it’s via the height of Gomez, the movement of Klose, or the pace of Podolski/Schurrle/Reus. Loew has plenty of options to choose from and with the magical Ozil pulling the strings, you know that they’re going to score in this game.
Italy have not been easy for any side to beat in this tournament so don’t make the mistake of thinking that Germany will walk this game purely because they’re favourites to win the tournament. I’d be very surprised to see Germany have an easy ride here, in all honesty. Italy looked good against England; they just needed a finisher to punish them, which is where they’re lacking, really. They’ve got one of the finest playmakers to have ever lived in Pirlo and they’ve got pace up front for him to pick out with his sublime passes. However, Italy don’t convince me in front of goal unless Balotelli feels like he can be bothered playing and that’s what will unhinge them here, I feel. Again, Italy are battlers and they’ve galvanised well in this tournament on the back of the controversy that sent them into this competition so don’t underestimate the mental belief that they have right now.
However, Germany are very strong mentally and better tactically and I expect them to grind out a narrow win, which should have some value at 10/11.
Verdict: Germany to win at 10/11.
NSI Runavik vs EB/Streymur – under 2.5 goals at evens.
The Faroese FA swiftly moved a couple of fixtures “randomly” forward after the UEFA Champions League Qualifiers and UEFA Europa League Qualifiers were decided and surprisingly enough, all four sides that are representing the Faroese nation in Europe are playing today. How curious!
NSI Runavik are a cautious side at home as it is. As delightful as a European windfall would unquestionably be, they have to focus on avoiding relegation from the Meistaradeildin so I expect a composed display from them here. They made a couple of mistakes against B68 Toftir but generally did ok, although they needed to create more in the final third as most of their chances came from set pieces. They’re not an easy side to deal with in Runavik and although their attacking has been a little hazy at home this season, they still make life hard for opponents and I expect them to be highly motivated against giants EB/Streymur today with the above in mind.
The visitors have one of the biggest squads in the Meistaradeildin; they can rest players here if they wish. I think they’ll play their first-team and go for the 0-1 win whilst resting players in the second-half, however, as you can hold a lead against NSI Runavik with a bit of composure. EB/Streymur are the better side here although they’re a bit hit-and-miss on the road, contrary to what their form chart suggests. They’re solid at home but on the road they tend to under-perform. EB/Streymur are a lot more cautious on the road and it shows with three consecutive clean sheets away from home in the Meistaradeildin.
I think EB/Streymur will “do a job” on NSI today. They’re good enough to keep the ball and make things happen. I’m never too convinced with their finishing on the road but they’re certainly good enough to keep their hosts out. With the above in mind, taking under 2.5 goals at evens looks intriguing today, dangerous though it can be in the Faroe Islands.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Vikingur Gotu vs B36 Torshavn – over 2.5 goals at 7/10.
I really wish that B36 weren’t competing in Europe because I’d be all over them here if so, irrespective of their dubious form this season.
Why, though? Vikingur are good in Gotu, right? Well, their record suggests so although they’ve only done well when they’ve kept clean sheets. Vikingur are very much a 1-0 side and with Gregersen holding the centre of their defence together, it’s no surprise that they’ve done so well as he’s easily the best centre-back still plying his trade in the country. Vikingur usually do enough to get the goal and then sit on it, which works well for them. However, Gregersen was sent off against HB Torshavn in their last game a few days ago and is suspended here, which is a huge blow for Vikingur. Their defensive ability is lessened by at least 50% for this game with his absence. Add to that the fact that they’ve got a European game with Gomel of Belarus in the coming days and there’s potentially a horrendous Vikingur side being sent out to play this game. I can’t see them winning it unless B36 lay it on a plate for them, basically.
However, B36 may just do that. Their Manager has recently admitted that defending their title is now impossible and that they’ll be looking for a European run to boost morale. Therefore, it’s realistic to expect B36 to rest a few players here themselves. They’ve got a big squad, however – they can still put out a good side here. Their defending has been suicidal this season, which is generally shown by the timings of their goals conceded. However, they’ve got firepower in their ranks and they are the better side so I think they’ll trouble Vikingur today.
Whichever side fields whichever line-up, I do find value in taking over 2.5 goals at 7/10 here. Gregersen’s absence means that Vikingur keeping a clean sheet here should be close to impossible whilst the visitors need a morale boost ahead of their European game next week. I really can’t endorse you entering the 1×2 market for this one as the points do mean more to Vikingur than B36 and Gotu is a difficult place to play. However, I think we’ll see goals, one way or another, so going over 2.5 goals really appeals to me, even at 7/10.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 7/10.
Jaro Pietarsaari vs HJK Helsinki – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
This is a fascinating game between in-form Jaro, led by former HJK Helsinki playmaker Eremenko, and reigning champions HJK Helsinki, who don’t travel well.
Jaro are playing with tremendous confidence right now and you can see it in their displays. MyPa may have played a high line last match but Jaro exploited it really well. They started the game brightly, scoring from their first attack of the game but having it incorrectly ruled out for offside. They had a few more half-chances before scoring mid-way through the first-half, which they’d earned. They found a few more one-on-one occasions in the game and should have scored more than they did but Eremenko can have no complaints with the way his side are playing. They’ve got some great results lately and with big Jonke leading the line alongside Niang, they look a real threat. Jaro don’t do well defensively and they looked sloppy from set pieces against MyPa but they’re a good attacking side and I doubt they’ll fear HJK here.
HJK themselves are a strange side, really. They’ve got to integrate their new players into the starting eleven fully and their inexperience is showing on occasions. They had plenty of chances against TPS Turku, for example, but they didn’t take their chances, chances that the likes of Pukki would have taken. It’ll be a relief for Muurinen to have Sadik back, I imagine – he’s not unpredictable or anything but he’s a big and strong target man and that’s what they needed in a game like the TPS game. HJK were bad at the back again, though. Hakanpaa should have walked for his last-man challenge on Aaritalo and they were clumsy for the penalty that they gave away toward the end of the game. HJK play a very high line and pace is causing the problems right now. It did against IFK Mariehamn and it did against TPS Turku so why not again today? HJK are not so good away from their beloved artificial turf and although they’re still most likely going to win the league, I think this side has a lot to learn and they do make errors at the back.
Therefore, I fancy over 2.5 goals here. I can’t say I fancy picking a winner as HJK are a shade overrated at the moment and Jaro are underrated. However, over 2.5 goals looks solid enough, based on the displays of the two sides lately. HJK just need to be a bit more clinical (especially Makela) like Mannstrom was against TPS Turku, although he rather unfortunately saw his lob cleared off the line.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
FC Lahti vs VPS Vaasa – away win at 7/5.
I can’t lie, guys – I’d prefer to take this one with draw no bet cover. VPS are notoriously poor on the road, after all. However, they’ve really turned a corner this season, hence me being interested in taking them to win this one.
Lahti are still crap, in my view. It doesn’t take a great side to score two against Honka, as Lahti did in their last game. The defeat was costly for Lahti too, having Sinisalo dismissed, which makes their defence even more vulnerable today. Taulo is back, which helps as he’s one of their best players, if not the best. However, Lahti’s defence is in tatters without Sinisalo and they’re not a goalscoring side so I don’t think they’ll have a lot of joy against VPS.
VPS are just going from strength to strength and it’s all down to Jamaican striker Morrissey. The team looks inspired by him and it’s no surprise, I guess – it’s been some time since they had a natural predator in the final third. He’s hard-working, quick, strong, and a surprisingly decent finisher. Veikkausliiga defences are having a nightmare dealing with him and subsequently VPS are beating everyone. VPS are notoriously good at defending so give them a lead and they’re even harder to play against than normal. They were excellent in the first-half against Inter Turku and should have been 0-2 up but a shot hit the woodwork when it should have hit the net. Inter Turku were restriced to long-range shots en mass. VPS should have again made it 0-2 at the start of the second-half but Morrissey couldn’t take the opportunity. Ultimately, it cost VPS as Inter Turku did what they do best by taking a chance despite not playing particularly well. Despite a couple of scary moments, VPS were the better side for me and they should have won the game. I’ve got a lot of faith in this over-achieving side and I think they’ll beat a side that they’re frankly better than today.
VPS are better in every area of the field than Lahti, whether it’s marginal or substantial. As long as Morrissey takes his chances and the side remains composed tactically (which they usually do) then taking VPS to win at 7/5 looks a good value bet today.
Verdict: VPS Vaasa to win at 7/5.
Team news
European Championships:
Italy – Chiellini, De Rossi, and Abate are doubts.