TFT Issue 441!
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Featured game
Spain vs Italy – Spain to win at 6/5.
The eagerly-awaiting European Championships Final is here at long last. Most people expected Spain to be in it, which they are, although few expected their opponents to be Italy and I must confess to being one of those who didn’t forsee Italy making it anywhere near as far as this.
Indeed, whether Italy win the tournament or not, they must surely consider the tournament a great success. Against the odds, they’ve united and played for their Manager and for their country. They’ve put in some very good displays with plenty of hard work and they’re not a side to underestimate at all.
However, I do feel that this game has a touch of inevitability about it with Spain winning almost all of their games in an efficient fashion without really playing well. Spain drew 1-1 with Italy in Group C earlier in the competition, which was a pretty fair outcome, all things considered. However, let’s not forget the three glaring chances that Torres fluffed at the end of that game because on another day, those finishes would be match-winners.
For that game, Spain were around 4/5 to beat Italy. Curiously, they’re now 6/5 to beat the same team in the final of the competition. How bizarre is that? Spain have far more experience of finals over the past few years than Italy do! That alone makes this a good value bet, in my view.
From a footballing perspective, I still really like this bet. Italy have been heroic thus far but let’s face it; they really struggle in front of goal, don’t they? The only time they are clinical in front of goal is when Balotelli is playing well, which is whenever he feels like it, basically. I can wax lyrical about the brilliance of Italy’s midfield all day long but the ability of their mobile strikers to put the ball in the net is limited at best and I think that will cost them here.
Italy took advantage of shoddy German defending in the Semi-Final and although Spain have a weak defence, they’re a lot better at keeping the ball than Germany are and I expect that to show here. Italy’s confidence keeps on growing but you have to wonder if they’ll be over-confident here too. They were quite adventurous against Germany and it nearly cost them in the opening exchanges. Fortunately, Italy got the opening goal and that was their path to the final mapped out for them. The key for Italy is to not fall behind because if they do, they tend to lose. It’s no coincidence whatsoever that Italy are unbeaten in this tournament and are also yet to fall behind in a game.
Give Spain a goal and you’ve as good as lost the game, in my view. I think they’ll get it, too. Italy’s defence isn’t as good as it was made to look in their game against Germany. Buffon etc. showed lots of nerves during that game and the few before it too. Italy’s nerves are only exposed when under heavy pressure and that’s what I expect Spain to apply here.
I hope I’m wrong but I expect a pretty boring game here. I think Spain will turn it on for the final, dominate play, and eventually edge it by a 1-0 scoreline or something in that vein. Italy’s run has been spectacular but I think that the superior Spanish are out to end the fairytale today. I’m hoping that Del Bosque starts with a striker here but either way, Spain should have enough to beat Italy. Taking Spain to beat any side in this competition at 6/5 has to have some value and thus that’s my call for the final.
Verdict: Spain to win at 6/5.
Additional games
Palmeiras vs Figueirense – lay Palmeiras at 4/5.
I’ve been opposing Palmeiras for a couple of weeks now because they’re a horrible side when it comes to putting the ball in the net. They struggle to score from open play and tend to rely excessively on their playmakers and their respective set pieces. Palmeiras are quite good at frustrating sides but pretty useless at breaking sides down and thus I expect them to struggle in certain games this season. Ordinarily, I wouldn’t really go near this one as Figueirense aren’t the best side in the universe and Palmeiras would be capable of edging it 1-0. However, Palmeiras have the Copa do Brasil first leg awaiting them in a few days time against Coritiba and thus will be resting a lot of first-team players here. Scolari does not have a big squad at his disposal so you have to feel that Figueirense can get something here. Much like their hosts, Figueirense specialise in being hard to beat rather than being flambuoyant and scoring lots of goals. With Figueirense more than capable of stopping what is essentially going to be a Palmeiras “B” team, I have to find value in laying the impotent hosts at 4/5.
Verdict: Lay Palmeiras at 4/5.
Gremio vs Atletico Mineiro – lay Gremio at 10/11.
At the time of me writing this preview, both of these two sides are in the top five in Serie A. I very much doubt that either side will be in the top five at the end of the season but it shows that they’ve both had good starts. Atletico Mineiro have been flexing their financial muscle and their results are beginning to reflect that whilst Gremio…well, they’ve always had an element of luck about them!
That luck has deserted Gremio lately, however, with Fabio Aurelio suffering a horrible injury in training and being ruled out for a long time. Indeed, that news was followed up by the fact that today’s opponents Atletico Mineiro have poached goalkeeper Victor from them, which means Grohe will have to make his first appearance of the season in net for Gremio tonight. Considering that Gremio have only won games this season when they’ve not conceded, that’s not good news at all. All good defences stem from a secure and reliable goalkeeper, which Gremio no longer have – at least not for the present. Gremio are still a force at home in the sense that they’re not easy to play against but they’re not in the best of places right now and I feel that they may get caught out here.
Atletico Mineiro miss regular centre-back Rever for this game, which would be a blow if I had any faith in the Atletico Mineiro defence, which I happily don’t. I’m not sure that they could keep a cow out, let alone Bolivian predator Moreno, so I’m working on the assumption that Gremio will score here anyway. What has made me lay Gremio is not only the dire news from their camp but also the attacking power of Atletico Mineiro nowadays. The pace of Danilinho and the finesse of Jo are lethal by themselves but add to that the world-class playmaking of Ronaldinho and you have a very dangerous attack. Ronaldinho should really be very keen to impress here, too – after all, it was Gremio that raised him when he was a youngster. This Atletico Mineiro side has a lot to learn about being a big side in Serie A but that’s something for another day. For today, it’s merely a case of scoring goals because scoring against Gremio tends to mean that you won’t lose the game, which is precisely what I am banking on here.
With the above in mind, I do feel that there’s value in laying Gremio at 10/11.
Verdict: Lay Gremio at 10/11.
Team news
European Championships:
Italy – Cassano is a doubt.
Spain – No absentees.
Brazilian Serie A:
Bahia – Ze Roberto, Souza, Jeferson, Coelho, Madson, and Avine are absent. Titi and Gabriel return. Kleberson may debutise.
Internacional – Sandro Silva, Dagobert, Datolo, and Rodrigo Moledo are absent. Bolatti and Fabricio return.
Coritiba – Likely to rest players for Cup game.
Sport Recife – Jael has left. Cicinho and Felipe Menezes are absent. Marquinhos Gabriel and Moacir return.
Portuguesa – Maylson, Luis Ricardo, and Leandro Silva are absent. Ananias returns.
Santos – Kardec has left. Galhardo, Pedro Castro, David Braz, and Bernardo are absent. Ganso returns. Fucile may debutise.
Flamengo – Airton and Leo Moura are absent.
Atletico Goianiense – Marino, Ricardo Bueno, Leonardo, and Rafael Cruz are absent. Joilson is a doubt.
Gremio – Vitor has been sold to Atletico Mineiro and is ineligible for this game. Fabio Aurelio, Julio Cesar, Para, and Naldo are absent. Ze Roberto will debutise.
Atletico Mineiro – Rever, Andre, Guilherme, Neto Berola are absent.
Palmeiras – Mauricio Ramos, Joao Vitor, and Marcio Araujo are the only regulars that will start this game as Palmeiras have Cup committments. Luan, Marcos Assuncao, and Wesley are absent anyway.
Figueirense – Ygor has left the club. Helder, Joao Paulo, Toro, Jackson, Heber, Niell, and Almir are absent.