TFT Issue 446!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Veikkausliiga, Ykkonen, & Allsvenskan Thoughts
I normally tip a lot of Scandinavian games but I haven’t done so today and thought it may be useful to explain why I think it’s worth avoiding the ones that I haven’t tipped.
The big one in Finland is between Inter Turku and HJK. God only knows what will happen in this one! HJK are marginally better than Inter right now but it’s a must-win for Inter. They’ve got some key players back but they’ve been very weak lately. HJK don’t travel as well as a big side do, which is usually due to the turf differential. Inter are back at the Veritas, which is their usual stadium, and that won’t help HJK at all. HJK aren’t playing as efficiently as normal, failing to convert their chances and buckling under pressure. I’ve a slight leaning to HJK but there’s nothing worth betting on in this game after a long run of games 3 days apart, especially with both sides playing bad football right now.
As far as the other Veikkausliiga game goes, I don’t know what to tell you. Jaro vs Haka is a tricky one. Jaro are the in-form side – or were until KuPS beat them last time out – and they do have big Jonke back up front. How will their defeat in Kuopio affect them, though? That’s a question that I don’t have the answer to. Unhelpfully, Haka are a very unpredictable side that are capable of upsetting the odds on any occasion whilst also being able to lose any game that they don’t put any effort into. Nothing would surprise me here, although I’d edge toward the narrow home win if forced.
As far as the Ykkonen games go, there’s a lot of dangerous games there. SJK should batter Hameenlinna on paper but SJK miss a lot of players, have played a lot of games lately, and Hameenlinna have been playing deceptively well. This could be a lot tighter than most people anticipate or SJK could annihlate them. I don’t see value in this one, though. RoPS are way too short against OPS, in my view, even with OPS sacking their Manager. It’s a derby and Oulu sides are the only ones that always cause RoPS headaches. OPS are not a great side but their starting eleven is good and capable of causing problems. RoPS aren’t as immortal as they were earlier in the season. You have to expect a narrow home win but I’d find more value in going against RoPS than going with them, if indeed there is any. KooTeePee are good at home and Viikingit are good away. However, KooTeePee look bereft of confidence and Viikingit are playing well so anything is possible here. Jippo should really beat HiFK at home as Jippo are immense in Joensuu and are playing really good football right now, unusually. HiFK are awful on the road and miss their loud fans a lot in these situations. I’d not take Jippo at such short odds against anyone in the Ykkonen, though – I’d have to be talked into taking them to beat a Kakkonen side at those odds! Never handicap Jippo either – they don’t have the firepower to deliver, barring the odd miracle. As far AC Oului vs PK-35 – your guess is as good as mine. There is very little between the two sides quality-wise. AC Oulu are very strong at home and it’s a long trip for PK-35 after a run of games in quick succession. However, PK-35’s form is picking up again and AC Oulu haven’t looked awesome of late. I’d favour the home side but PK-35 are one of the few sides that can get a result in northern Finland so another no bet for me.
And as for the Allsvenskan game, I struggle to find any value in it. Djurgarden shouldn’t be as short as 7/5 to win on the road. Yes, they’ve claimed a valuable three points against a good IFK Goteborg recently but so what? IFK were at fault for all of DIF’s goals in their defence and could have scored at least two at the end to actually win the game against their hosts. DIF are a good attacking side but their defence is a complete joke; never expect them to keep a clean sheet because they won’t! I actually like DIF a lot but 7/5 in Sodertalje? Really? They’ve played in the last few days and Syrianska haven’t! Syrianska aren’t anywhere near the level of DIF but this is a must-win game for them if they’re to avoid the drop and it’s a game that they can win. Touma will be out to impress against the bitter rivals of his beloved AIK and Syrianska have surprised better sides than DIF this season. Over 2.5 goals is intriguing but I’d much rather sit this one out.
Anyway, I hope that’s useful for you guys :)
Featured game
GIF Sundsvall vs Atvidaberg – home win at 11/10.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan encounter between GIF Sundsvall and Atvidaberg. Both sides recorded impressive results in the last round of fixtures but for me, only one of these two sides actually showed what they were capable of; the other side was much more opportunistic.
GIF Sundsvall won high-flying Hacken in Goteborg in their last game. They were absolutely perfect tactically, exploiting Hacken time and time again on counter-attacks whilst defending rigidly. Hacken had their usual amount of chances but credit has to go to GIF for the way in which they played. They were smart, quick, and clinical, which is precisely what makes this side harder to play against than Allsvenskan statistics tend to show. Only the top four have conceded less goals than GIF Sundsvall this season and that one does at least indicate one of GIF’s varying strengths. The other is their ability to outplay opponents, not to mention out-think them. Their home form shows two wins in six games, which looks poor, doesn’t it? Now consider that the three sides that have actually won here have been giants Helsingborg, league leaders Elfsborg Boras, and a very fortuitous Kalmar at the start of the season. Everyone else that has come to the Norrporten Arena has been outplayed here, in my view. Heavyweights Malmo were outplayed in their 1-1 draw, as were their bitter rivals Helsingborg although Helsingborg took one of the few chances that they created (after GIF went to sleep at left-back) and credit to them for it because GIF failed to take any of their numerous chances. Atvidaberg are more in the vein or Orebro or Syrianska, though, both of which were absolutely battered here by GIF. GIF don’t take their chances well enough against the big sides; that’s the biggest critcism that I have of them. Tactically, though, they’re pretty damn impressive for a small side. This side can and will take chances against equal or lesser sides and I expect them to do that today against newly-promoted Atvidaberg.
Atvidaberg drubbed Elfsborg 5-1 in their last game, which was a baffling result in every sense of the word – well, for those who weren’t watching, at least. I firmly believed in the Elfsborg win but hey, this is what can happen in football sometimes. Elfsborg’s goalkeeper had the worst game of his career, fumbling corners etc. and that unsettled the defence, which Atvidaberg capitalised on. At the other end, Elfsborg weren’t good enough – maybe they were too focused on the game with Floriana? – but they were woeful at the back and even Atvidaberg can score goals when handed to them on a plate. To be fair to Atvidaberg, their ability to score goals is one thing that I’ve respected about them a lot this season. Their strikers have all adapted to Allsvenskan life very well and they’re certainly a threat, although they’ll have to work hard to penetrate a solid GIF defence. Defensively, though, Atvidaberg are bloody awful and even a half-arsed Elfsborg attack did a fair amount of damage against them last time out. Atvidaberg work hard, which saves them sometimes, but them keeping a clean sheet surprises me every time it occurs. Happily, that has only happened twice this season and both games were at home. Away from home, Atvidaberg are sitting ducks. They’ve conceded a minimum of a goal per every away game, conceding at least two goals per away game in all but one game this season. I watched their 1-1 draw against Djurgarden, too – Djurgarden were awful in that game until they brought Santos on. I admire the work-rate of Atvidaberg and their ability to score goals but as far as quality and intelligence goes, GIF are some distance ahead of them and I think that’ll show today.
Sadly, I’ve no team news to back this tip up, which is never ideal. However, I know GIF well enough to know that they’re a solid and dependable unit and thus they should be able to do what is expected of them here. Barring a miraculous Atvidaberg display, the home win at 11/10 looks very sweet to me today.
Verdict: GIF Sundsvall to win at 11/10.
Additional game
IFK Mariehamn vs VPS Vaasa – IFK Mariehamn to keep a clean sheet at 6/4.
I toyed with a few bets for this game as the home win at 11/10 and IFK to win to nil at 13/5 both looked very appealing. However, I decided that I just don’t have enough faith in IFK’s attack and thus I’ve avoided both bets here.
Instead, I’d much rather take IFK to keep a clean sheet against VPS. Why? Well, VPS have done really well this season but you have to analyse their displays and realise why they’ve done well. Their most prominent player has been Jamaican striker Morrissey and not just because he scores the majority of their goals. His movement, his work-rate – everything about him is infectious and it inspires the team. You can count the number of goals that he’s scored for them this season but you won’t see how many he’s made too, either by his shots being saved or by counter-attacking well and setting someone up. However, Morrissey isn’t playing today, which is a huge blow as VPS don’t have another good striker. The other big blow for VPS is the absence of Strandvall in midfield, who makes a lot happen for them. They missed him at Lahti and VPS were pretty bad in that game, nicking a 0-1 win thanks to a penalty and defending for the rest of the game. I respect VPS a lot but them scoring without those two players will take some horrendous accident in the IFK defence or some magical miracle in the VPS attack, neither of which are likely.
VPS are notoriously defensive on the road as it is but with the scorer of five out of their eight Veikkausliiga away goals this season sitting this game out, it’s very hard to imagine VPS doing anything but defending here. They know how good IFK are at home and they also know that IFK struggle to break sides down unless they play a high defensive line. VPS aren’t stupid; they won’t play a high line here or IFK will run riot.
IFK are playing well enough to nick the win though, in my view. They were fortunate to draw in Espoo last time out but when your luck is in, it’s in. They’re playing good football with great belief and they’re always a handful at home. I rate this side a lot on their own turf and you won’t find many sides winning here at all. Do they have enough to break through a solid and confident VPS defence, though? I’m not so sure. I’d like to believe so but the reality is that it’ll come down to how well Forsell plays in the middle of the park so you never just know.
Taking IFK to keep a clean sheet appeals to me a lot at 6/4, though – I just don’t know what VPS can do to trouble the IFK backline today. I’m still partially tempted to take IFK to win to nil because if they are going to win this game then they’re almost certainly going to have to do it without conceding because VPS are a nightmare to score against as it is, let alone when they have a lead to defend. IFK may be second in the Veikkausliiga table but don’t become disillusioned; they’re not good enough to be there. Note that only VPS Vaasa themselves and rock-bottom Jaro Pietarsaari have scored less goals than IFK when playing at home this season and you’ll see how sides line up when they play in Aland. Only the big two from Turku have scored in Aland against IFK since April and I expect that statistic to be the same at the end of this game too.
You can either take a chance and back IFK to win to nil at very long odds of 11/5 or you can play conservative and take IFK to keep a clean sheet at 6/4. I’m going to stay on the side of caution and take IFK to keep a clean sheet as there’s plenty of value there but good luck in whatever you take!
Verdict: IFK Mariehamn to keep a clean sheet at 6/4.
Team news
Brazilian Serie A:
Botafogo – Rafael Marques and Seedorf are absent. Abreu has left. Fellype Gabriel is a doubt. Mattos is absent. Azevedo will play follow his appeal against his suspension.
Bahia – Fabricio is a big doubt. Diones, Madson, Avine, and Coelho are absent. Souza and Kleberson return.
Internacional – Guinazu and Kleber are absent. Unknown if new signings Forlan and Ygor will feature.
Cruzeiro – Wellington Paulista, Alex Silva, and Charles are absent. Anselmo Ramon and Mateus return.
Atletico Goianiense – Gilson is absent. Paulinho, Elias, William, and Fernando Bob have left. Patric, Renie, and Vanderlei have been signed.
Nautico – Derley, Cascata, Auremir, Marlon, and Rogerio are likely to miss out. Kieza has returned to Brazil but will not play in this game. Araujo should return today.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Inter Turku – Bahne, Diallo, Kauko, and Gnabouyou return. Antunez, Lehto, and Parviainen are absent.
HJK Helsinki – Sadik may return.
Jaro Pietarsaari – Wargh is absent.
Haka Valkeakoski – Dema and Pesonen are absent.
IFK Mariehamn – No absentees.
VPS Vaasa – Strandvall, Morrissey, Jibrin, and Bjork are absent. Engstrom returns.
Finnish Ykkonen:
AC Oulu – Makela is absent. Ojala and Nurmos return.
PK-35 Helsinki – Raimi is absent.
Jippo Joensuu – Sormusen, L.Ikonen, and Koivuranta are absent. Korpela is a doubt. Eronen and Itala return.
HiFK Helsinki – Kibona, M.Halme, Johansson, and Taminnen are absent. J.Halme returns.
KooTeePee Kotka – Jammeh and Lomidze are absent.
Viikingit Helsinki – No news.
RoPS Rovaniemi – Obilor is absent. Kokko is a doubt. Sohna, Kononen, and Lahtinen return.
OPS Oulu – Ramirez is absent. Viric has been sacked.
SJK – Dorman, Lomski, Penninkangas, Palosaari, Karike, Jaaskelainen, Viljanen, Rauhala, and Tiitus Lehtinen are absent. Sund returns.